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Created by: BeterChiarelli

Team: 2021-22 Edmonton Oilers

Initial Creation Date: Dec. 8, 2021

Published: Dec. 8, 2021

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Please fire Tippett and his staff (save Gulutzan) for the love of god. Bring Woodcroft, Manson, and the rest of the Condors' staff up. Over $7M in dead cap; I'm confident that with a coach that knows what he's doing this team makes noise in the playoffs.

I think the Oilers are fully on-board with Skinner staying up in the NHL this year and are going to want to test-drive the Smith-Skinner tandem to see what they should be expecting for next season. This trade could happen as soon as Smith is healthy for all I care. Koskinen has played himself out of Edmonton but I think at a more appropriate AAV the Sabres would happily play him and allow their AHL netminders to return back to Rochester. The pick in return is a lot higher than one should expect for Eakin without retention (late fourth to mid-fifth range?) and the addition of a C-prospect to that surplus value should be enough to account for Koskinen going to Buffalo. I think Mikko waives his NTC so long as the Sabres *want* him. I reckon a team actually wanting him is going to prove far more important than cup odds or tax rates.

I think the Habs deal is a clever way for the Oilers to get out of one of Holland's earliest mistakes while improving their roster and satisfying the absurd price that Chiarot has attached to his name right now.

Only truly iffy about the value in the Flyers' deal. I've seen picks in the realm of a 3rd and 6th going for Braun and Brassard respectively: I would value Benson at an early 4th and Koekkoek at a late 5th. Benson probably locks down the #4LW spot in Philly for like the next 3-4 years (Ratcliffe being his only real competition and Benson has the AHL numbers to win out the spot) and wouldn't be the worst name having to elevate to the #3LW spot in a pinch. Koekkoek occupies the #6/7D role for probably the remainder of his deal: I suspect the Flyers - if they purge at this deadline - are only finishing the year with some combination of Provorov, Ellis, Sanheim, Morin, York, and Zamula. Maybe Clendening comes up to end the year and the kids stay in Lehigh for the Calder playoffs? I have the Oilers tossing in a 4th that's a couple years out to balance the deal as getting bottom of the roster pieces for a pair of rentals really isn't enough. Given the volume of mid-round picks they'll likely be raking in this deadline, I don't think the "when" of the pick in question should be of much importance. What's really important about this trade is twofold: Edmonton gains quality depth and a potential competitor doesn't.

I think flipping Barrie and Yamamoto between the draft and July 1st helps recoup some picks. This team has all of the high-end pieces it needs for a while so a steady stream of replaceable parts is all that's really required.

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST	YEARS	CAP HIT
Berezkin, Maksim	3	$925,000
Bourgault, Xavier	3	$925,000
Brind'Amour, Skyler	2	$925,000
Denezhkin, Maxim	3	$925,000
Engaras, Filip	2	$925,000
Räsänen, Aapeli	1	$925,000
Savoie, Carter	3	$925,000

Trades

EDM

Eakin, Cody

BUF

Koskinen, Mikko ($1,750,000 retained)
Siikanen, Patrik [Reserve List]
2023 3rd round pick (EDM)

EDM

Chiarot, Ben ($1,750,000 retained)
Toffoli, Tyler

MTL

Kassian, Zack ($750,000 retained)
Lagesson, William
Lavoie, Raphael
2022 1st round pick (EDM)
2023 1st round pick (EDM)

EDM

Brassard, Derick
Braun, Justin ($900,000 retained)

PHI

Benson, Tyler
Koekkoek, Slater
2024 4th round pick (EDM)

Buyouts

James Neal: $1,916,667
Andrej Sekera: $1,500,000

Retained Salary Transactions

Milan Lucic: $750,000 (12.5%)
Mikko Koskinen: $1,750,000 (38.89%)
Zack Kassian: $750,000 (0%)

Buried

Kyle Turris: $525,000 ($1,650,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2022
2023
2024

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$81,500,000	$77,059,468	$669,339	$907,500	$4,440,532

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Toffoli, Tyler $2,125,000$2,125,000 RW, LW UFA - 3	McDavid, Connor $12,500,000$12,500,000 C UFA - 5	Puljujärvi, Jesse $1,175,000$1,175,000 RW UFA - 1
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan $5,125,000$5,125,000 LW, C NMC UFA - 8	Draisaitl, Leon $8,500,000$8,500,000 C, LW UFA - 4	Hyman, Zach $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW NMC UFA - 7
Foegele, Warren $2,750,000$2,750,000 LW, RW UFA - 3		Yamamoto, Kailer $1,175,000$1,175,000 RW RFA - 1
		Sceviour, Colton $750,000$750,000 RW, C UFA - 1
Brassard, Derick $412,500$412,500 C, LW UFA - 1	McLeod, Ryan $834,167$834,167 ($57,500$58K) C RFA - 1
	Eakin, Cody $2,250,000$2,250,000 C UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Nurse, Darnell $5,600,000$5,600,000 LD UFA - 1	Bouchard, Evan $863,333$863,333 ($850,000$850K) RD RFA - 2	Smith, Mike $2,200,000$2,200,000 G UFA - 2
Keith, Duncan $5,538,462$5,538,462 LD NMC UFA - 2	Ceci, Cody $3,250,000$3,250,000 RD UFA - 4	Skinner, Stuart $750,000$750,000 G UFA - 2
	Barrie, Tyson $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD UFA - 3
Chiarot, Ben $0$0 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Russell, Kris $1,250,000$1,250,000 LD/RD UFA - 1		Klefbom, Oscar $4,167,000$4,167,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 2
Ryan, Derek $1,250,000$1,250,000 C, RW UFA - 2		Archibald, Josh $1,500,000$1,500,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Braun, Justin $900,000$900,000 RD UFA - 1		Stalock, Alex $785,000$785,000 G UFA - 1

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Puljujärvi, J.		Draisaitl, L.		Toffoli, T.
	Barrie, T.		McDavid, C.

Power Play 2
Hyman, Z.		McLeod, R.		Foegele, W.
	Bouchard, E.		Nugent-Hopkins, R.

Penalty Kill 1
	Eakin, C.	Sceviour, C.
	Nurse, D.	Chiarot, B.

Penalty Kill 2
	Nugent-Hopkins, R.	Hyman, Z.
	Keith, D.	Ceci, C.

Dec. 8, 2021 at 7:37 p.m.

Hockey247

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 1,392

Likes: 494

drop lavoie and add a better prospect.

Dec. 8, 2021 at 7:51 p.m.

MisstheWhalers

Joined: Jan. 2019

Posts: 23,737

Likes: 12,411

Would you even need to retain on Koskinen if Eakin is coming back.

gretzkyghosts liked this.

Dec. 8, 2021 at 7:54 p.m.

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 6,482

Likes: 6,455

Quoting: Hockey247

drop lavoie and add a better prospect.

No, not at least until you can convince me otherwise. Assume for the sake of argument Edmonton finishes with the 24th overall pick (their current position via points percentage).

I've been adamant that even when fully retained, Chiarot isn't worth a first round pick but rather in the realm of a second round pick and a prospect like Lavoie. Habs fans are overvaluing him based on what most other hockey fans consider an inappropriate comparison to Savard. Given that we expect the Oilers to acquire Chiarot in this case, I would thus be valuing Chiarot to the #56 pick and Lavoie.

Kassian with the retention of a league-minimum deal, the 2023 first, and Lagesson falls short of fair value for Toffoli even if the Habs are looking a proper rebuild dead in the eyes. I don't think anyone would argue this

Using historical draft pick values (https://bluebulletreport.com/2020/10/05/2020-nhl-draft-rankings/), the difference in pick values between Edmonton's first round pick and second round pick this year is a bit less than the #30 pick. I think that such a gap in pick values more than makes up for the deficit in how I've broken down the deal. If we concede that hockey fans outside of the Montreal Canadiens fan base are correct in evaluating Chiarot in the 2nd rounder+Lavoie range AND that there's a value deficit in the above Toffoli breakdown, then bumping the value of the pick being exchanged for Chiarot covers the value missing in the Toffoli breakdown.

At its crux it's a remarkably fair deal to the point where Montreal is even on the hook for less cash than the Oilers are.

Dec. 8, 2021 at 7:56 p.m.

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 6,482

Likes: 6,455

Quoting: MisstheWhalers

Would you even need to retain on Koskinen if Eakin is coming back.

MisstheWhalers and gretzkyghosts liked this.

Dec. 8, 2021 at 8:00 p.m.

mondo

torontos finest

Joined: Jul. 2019

Posts: 9,562

Likes: 11,197

Minor thing but retaining on Kassian may not be ideal. 750k for three years isn't much but that's not having a league minimum roster player on your team.

BeterChiarelli and gretzkyghosts liked this.

Dec. 8, 2021 at 8:15 p.m.

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 6,482

Likes: 6,455

Quoting: mondo

Minor thing but retaining on Kassian may not be ideal. 750k for three years isn't much but that's not having a league minimum roster player on your team.

The intention of that retention - as Kassian currently cannot justify his AAV - was that the Habs take his poor deal but essentially get the cost of one of their league-min players covered in the process.

Given how the dead cap sheds from the Oilers over the next couple of seasons, these rumoured cap increases, and the influx of some ELC deals over the next 2-3 years, the Oilers should be fine over that span. Maybe they end up running a 22-man roster next year but it's very much a short-term issue at best.

Dec. 8, 2021 at 8:20 p.m.

Hockey247

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 1,392

Likes: 494

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

i dont gotta convince you lmao. we can easily fetch a 1st for chiarot from another team. and if we move toffoli, thats another 1st and high end prospect. so no to this trade.

Dec. 8, 2021 at 8:46 p.m.

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 6,482

Likes: 6,455

Quoting: Hockey247

i dont gotta convince you lmao. we can easily fetch a 1st for chiarot from another team. and if we move toffoli, thats another 1st and high end prospect. so no to this trade.

Edmonton's the only team in the league that has both a want for a Chiarot-esque defenceman and lacks the player evaluation skills to pay that kind of a gaudy price. If other, better defenders like De Haan, Giordano, or Lindholm are going to be available, why are other teams paying a premium for Chiarot? De Haan and Giordano will be cheaper. Lindholm's simply better.

Move past the bias. Lavoie and a second round pick is right on the money for Chiarot. Other Habs fans find this deal amicable, fans of other teams think such a proposal for Chiarot (or Toffoli given your response) are laughable. Finding that middle ground will genuinely improve your experience here.

Kotkaniemi15 liked this.

Dec. 8, 2021 at 9:44 p.m.

Hockey247

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 1,392

Likes: 494

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

wrong on all accounts. the biggest attraction to chiarot is his experience in size. but sure if the oilers don't want him, don't trade for him lmao. he'll command a first bud. bookmark it.

Dec. 8, 2021 at 10:00 p.m.

#10

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 6,482

Likes: 6,455

Quoting: Hockey247

wrong on all accounts. the biggest attraction to chiarot is his experience in size. but sure if the oilers don't want him, don't trade for him lmao. he'll command a first bud. bookmark it.

A donation to an Edmonton-based charity if I'm right, and I'll donate to a Montreal-based one (if I'm assuming correctly) if I'm wrong. You game?

Dec. 8, 2021 at 10:02 p.m.

#11

Hockey247

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 1,392

Likes: 494

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

A donation to an Edmonton-based charity if I'm right, and I'll donate to a Montreal-based one (if I'm assuming correctly) if I'm wrong. You game?

no. why tf wiuld i donate to a charity when i can pocket the money LMAO.

Dec. 8, 2021 at 10:26 p.m.

#12

Kotkaniemi15

Former Hockey Fan

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 13,144

Likes: 10,516

The deal is absolutely fair. My willingness to trade Toffoli may not be there, but if that’s the road the team is going down this would definitely be a good way to do it. I also don’t think there’s any appetite to bring Kassian back in the organization, but if he needs to be included to get the deal done he can always be buried in the ECHL or bought out in the off-season (although that comes with an extra bit of a price tag).

Dec. 8, 2021 at 10:36 p.m.

#13

BeterChiarelli

Thread Starter

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 6,482

Likes: 6,455

Quoting: Kotkaniemi15

I also don’t think there’s any appetite to bring Kassian back in the organization

This is something our good friend @SevenLeg brought up in a previous AGM I had with this deal in it and I don't know if I can fully get behind the idea that Kassian wouldn't be welcome in Montrealat least from a hockey ops perspective. The memory of fanbases is certainly longer but we're talking about an incident seven years ago nearly to the day that may as well have been committed by an entirely different human being.

I think that kind of attitude - while not actually problematic or anything - discredits how much work Kassian has put into himself to get sober and stay that way.

TheGreatBigMac and Kotkaniemi15 liked this.

Dec. 9, 2021 at 12:26 a.m.

#14

Scanz

Joined: Feb. 2020

Posts: 50

Likes: 10

Quoting: Hockey247

drop lavoie and add a better prospect.

Lavoie is definitely fair value for Chiarot, as an early second rounder, but I think Lagesson is really where this trade would fall short. Need something with a little more potential than a fourth rounder who doesn't really have impressive numbers at any level

BeterChiarelli liked this.

Dec. 9, 2021 at 8:24 a.m.

#15

TheGreatBigMac

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 346

Likes: 76

Well done, this would be a fun playoff team to watch.

BeterChiarelli and GMTD liked this.

Dec. 9, 2021 at 8:28 a.m.

#16

gretzkyghosts

Joined: Apr. 2018

Posts: 5,352

Likes: 4,799

Quoting: MisstheWhalers

Would you even need to retain on Koskinen if Eakin is coming back. As a Sabre fan I agree.

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

I proposed an Eakin trade earlier in the week that was met with some resistance (Eakin @ 50% retained for Koekkoek, Turris, and the 2023 4th) so I'd rather remove as much room for a counterargument from any naysayers by removing as much value coming from Buffalo's end as possible. That was most likely from me. Koekkoek, Turris, would not add any value to Buffalo on the other hand Koskinen would be Buffalo's top GK right now. If I were the Sabre GM, I would take all of Koskinen's salary, retain on Eakin and leave the balance of the trade the same.

Buffalo has sufficient cap space to take on salary and could use an NHL GK.
If I were the Buffalo GM, I would make this trade.

BeterChiarelli and GMTD liked this.

Dec. 9, 2021 at 11:06 a.m.

#17

Hockey247

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 1,392

Likes: 494

Quoting: Scanz

lavoie is barely a pro ahl player. it'll be a waste of a trade for the habs to try and acquire a guy who can barely score in the ahl. we need someone who has a high chance of being an nhler.

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