Trading the 7th OA

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Created by: TCMonkey

Team: 2022-23 Ottawa Senators

Initial Creation Date: May 12, 2022

Published: May 13, 2022

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Dubois should cost less to acquire, should be extendable at a cheaper AAV, AND supplies much more sandpaper to the 2nd line than Fiala.
Buying out White because it would be foolish to wait a year and lose the opportunity to save $10M just to see another season. Too big a gamble.
Keeping Murray but if he manages to stay healthy and is NOT GOOD we can try to move him next summer or just buy him out then.
Getting into the playoffs next season would be a difficult task unless some of the high power Eastern teams have brutal off-seasons or incredible bad luck. I think we need to accept that we may need to be patient for one more year. Signing Dubois for 5 at a reasonable term is still well worth our 2022 1st, truthfully I'd even add Jarventie to the deal if required, or remove the 5th and add Brännström.
At the deadline, if we're not in a playoff spot we should also be prepared to move Connor Brown. It would NOT be realistic to sign him to a new deal as he'll want term and something in the $5M range which OTT should not be giving him. Holden, Hamonic, MDZ and Watson should go too - all of them would be sought after rentals by contending teams. Hell, if we retain 50% on Brown we could easily get a return that slots in immediately (see Nick Paul <<>> Mathieu Joseph + a 4th) .
Knowing that we'll be moving so many bodies out means we need to get JBD, Thomson and Greig into a lot of games before the deadline, but if they aren't dressed in OTT they have to be playing in BEL so keep the roster small so you can move the ELCs up and down as needed. Don't screw it up by signing Gaudette and Gambrell to one way deals. We need to be smarter than that. Those players won't make a difference in terms of where we finish so, if we aren't a playoff team, lets at least be preparing our prospects for the 23-24 season.
And let's totally hang onto our 2023 1st until we know where we're picking.

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Dubois, Pierre-Luc	5	$6,850,000
Joseph, Mathieu	4	$2,350,000
Formenton, Alex	2	$2,250,000
Norris, Joshua	7	$7,850,000
Brännström, Erik	2	$1,150,000

Trades

OTT

Dubois, Pierre-Luc [RFA Rights]

WPG

2022 1st round pick (OTT)
2022 5th round pick (WPG)

OTT

ARI

Zaitsev, Nikita
2022 2nd round pick (TBL)
2022 3rd round pick (BOS)

Buyouts

Bobby Ryan: $1,833,333
Dion Phaneuf: $354,167
Colin White: $875,000

Buried

Michael Del Zotto: $875,000 ($2,000,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2022
2023
2024

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
21	$82,500,000	$70,052,381	$0	$4,025,000	$12,447,619

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Tkachuk, Brady $8,205,714$8,205,714 LW UFA - 6	Norris, Joshua $7,850,000$7,850,000 C UFA - 8	Batherson, Drake $4,975,000$4,975,000 RW, LW UFA - 5
Dubois, Pierre-Luc $6,850,000$6,850,000 C UFA - 1	Stützle, Tim $925,000$925,000 ($2,500,000$2M) C UFA - 1	Brown, Connor $3,600,000$3,600,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Formenton, Alex $2,250,000$2,250,000 LW RFA	Pinto, Shane $925,000$925,000 ($600,000$600K) C RFA - 1	Joseph, Mathieu $2,350,000$2,350,000 LW, RW UFA - 4
Kelly, Parker $762,500$762,500 LW RFA - 2	Kastelic, Mark $821,667$821,667 C, RW RFA - 1	Watson, Austin $1,500,000$1,500,000 RW, LW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Chabot, Thomas $8,000,000$8,000,000 LD UFA - 6	Zub, Artem $2,500,000$2,500,000 RD UFA - 1	Forsberg, Anton $2,750,000$2,750,000 G UFA - 3
Sanderson, Jake $925,000$925,000 ($925,000$925K) LD UFA - 2	Hamonic, Travis $3,000,000$3,000,000 RD UFA - 1	Gustavsson, Filip $787,500$787,500 G UFA - 1
Holden, Nick $1,300,000$1,300,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 1	Brännström, Erik $1,150,000$1,150,000 LD/RD, LW RFA - 1	Murray, Matt $4,687,500$4,687,500 G M-NTC UFA - 2

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Batherson, D.		Tkachuk, B.		Norris, J.
	Chabot, T.		Stützle, T.

Power Play 2
Joseph, M.		Dubois, P.		Brown, C.
	Sanderson, J.		Pinto, S.

Penalty Kill 1
	Formenton, A.	Joseph, M.
	Holden, N.	Zub, A.

Penalty Kill 2
	Brown, C.	Kastelic, M.
	Sanderson, J.	Hamonic, T.

May 13, 2022 at 8:09 a.m.

MP55

Hide yo girl

Joined: Mar. 2018

Posts: 1,636

Likes: 1,131

The Dubois trade seems about right. People will tell you it’s an underpay because they overvalue PLD as an elite franchise number 1 center. But he was streaky all year and had the same 5v5 ppg as Christian Dvorak while playing next to Kyle Connor and Nik Ehlers, yet people on this site dump Dvorak for a second while rejecting first overall for Dubois offers.

TCMonkey liked this.

May 13, 2022 at 8:09 a.m.

csick

KFTW

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 43,260

Likes: 24,112

I think you need much more for Dubois to the point it’s probably not worth it anymore.

May 13, 2022 at 8:10 a.m.

Lenny7

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 13,291

Likes: 11,051

I would (personally) think that Dubois would cost more than just the 7OA pick. Could be wrong, but I think you'd have to add another decent asset there. The likelihood of any of the guys being available at 7OA ending up being as good or better than Dubois long term is extremely low, which would make it an extremely large gamble to even consider.

Consider that the Jets moved both Roslovic and Laine for PLD in the first place. 1 year later they're going to turn around and get out of it? That'd be a pretty big L, IMO. Think Scheifele is far more likely to be moved than PLD.

Windjammer and Mr_Canoehead liked this.

May 13, 2022 at 8:15 a.m.

Lenny7

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 13,291

Likes: 11,051

Quoting: JGDD11

Just going to throw out a wild stab in the dark that you're a Habs fan

May 13, 2022 at 8:45 a.m.

BatVader

Joined: Feb. 2020

Posts: 2,042

Likes: 1,017

Edited May 13, 2022 at 2:51 p.m.

Jets Decline
Dubois isnt available, and definitely not for that

Windjammer liked this.

May 13, 2022 at 9:19 a.m.

qc14

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 3,348

Likes: 1,911

Quoting: JGDD11

i 100% agree with this, but I have a strong feeling NHL GMs do not ...

May 13, 2022 at 9:26 a.m.

littlejerryseinfeld

Joined: Nov. 2017

Posts: 27,896

Likes: 14,580

Would have to know Dubois situation. Is he telling winnipeg he won't sign? Is he going to arbitration? Does he want 9 million a year?

Mr_Canoehead liked this.

May 13, 2022 at 9:33 a.m.

Xspyrit

Joined: Jul. 2016

Posts: 10,506

Likes: 3,721

Quoting: csick

I think you need much more for Dubois to the point it’s probably not worth it anymore.

No, maybe improve the 5th to a 2nd or something like this

But why would the Jets trade Dubois? He's young enough to be part of any direction they decide to go and he's a Top-6 Center (not easy to acquire)

The Sens don't even need him at C so they would transition him to the Wing.

Not happening but interesting idea nonetheless

csick and tsyls liked this.

May 13, 2022 at 9:40 a.m.

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 15,901

Likes: 7,069

Dubois isn't being moved and that deal isn't remotely close to being remotely close to tempting Winnipeg.

BatVader liked this.

May 13, 2022 at 9:44 a.m.

#10

Xspyrit

Joined: Jul. 2016

Posts: 10,506

Likes: 3,721

Quoting: Windjammer

Dubois isn't being moved and that deal isn't remotely close to being remotely close to tempting Winnipeg.

The 7th OA pick would not be "remotely close", what is he worth in your opinion?

May 13, 2022 at 9:52 a.m.

#11

TCMonkey

Thread Starter

Hockey 1st Sens 2nd

Joined: Aug. 2016

Posts: 3,571

Likes: 1,596

Quoting: Lenny7

Consider that the Jets moved both Roslovic and Laine for PLD in the first place. 1 year later they're going to turn around and get out of it? That'd be a pretty big L, IMO. Think Scheifele is far more likely to be moved than PLD.

A player is only worth what someone is willing to pay. Where you drafted him OR what you traded to acquire him means nothing. Could we get a late 1st or early 2nd rounder for Erik Brannstrom? Not likely. But we paid a hefty price to get him.
Obviously Dubois has much more value than Brannstrom, but my point is Dubois is probably not anxious to sign long term in Winnipeg and has yet to show he's worth much more than I've offered.
Would I be willing to pay a little more? YES. I could change the 5th to the 2023 2nd, maybe add Jarventie... or change the 5th to a 3rd and add Brannstrom. I think there's a deal to be made.

MP55 liked this.

May 13, 2022 at 9:53 a.m.

#12

TCMonkey

Thread Starter

Hockey 1st Sens 2nd

Joined: Aug. 2016

Posts: 3,571

Likes: 1,596

Quoting: Windjammer

Dubois isn't being moved and that deal isn't remotely close to being remotely close to tempting Winnipeg.

I'll believe that when he signs his deal.

May 13, 2022 at 9:53 a.m.

#13

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 15,901

Likes: 7,069

Quoting: Xspyrit

The 7th OA pick would not be "remotely close", what is he worth in your opinion?

Considering Dubois was a 3rd overall pick himself, is a proven 1C, is an RFA, was a big part of Connor scoring 47 goals, the Jets may need him even more if they move Scheifele and that the 7th pick has done nothing to show it is guaranteed to be anywhere close to the player Dubois currently is, let alone what he will be in his prime, I would imagine Dubois wouldn't be on the table.

Now, if you want to work a deal around Scheifele, that may work.

BatVader liked this.

May 13, 2022 at 9:59 a.m.

#14

tsyls

Joined: Jun. 2019

Posts: 6,731

Likes: 4,825

Jets likely decline. I think there’s a misconception to player value when it comes to each team. Every single team will value a player differently. For example, Dubois is likely worth much more to Winnipeg than he is to Ottawa. The jets desperately needed another top 6 c and got one in Dubois, now he’s poised to lead the team through the next 5-7 years. There’s been a lot of talk about a potential Dubois trade and him maybe not wanting to be in Winnipeg, but it’s all talk. In fact the only hard evidence we have either way is from Dubois himself who’s said he loves the city and being here. Now does that translate to a long term deal? Who knows, but as of now I don’t see any validity or truth to the Dubois rumours.

Scheifele would be a different conversation though.

CF18GM, Xspyrit and BatVader liked this.

May 13, 2022 at 10:21 a.m.

#15

Xspyrit

Joined: Jul. 2016

Posts: 10,506

Likes: 3,721

Quoting: Windjammer

No interest in Scheifele, but that answer doesn't answer my question at all.

May 13, 2022 at 10:26 a.m.

#16

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 15,901

Likes: 7,069

Quoting: Xspyrit

No interest in Scheifele, but that answer doesn't answer my question at all.

Yes, it does. He isn't being traded, so his worth is irrelevant.

Mr_Canoehead liked this.

May 13, 2022 at 10:42 a.m.

#17

Xspyrit

Joined: Jul. 2016

Posts: 10,506

Likes: 3,721

Edited May 13, 2022 at 10:59 a.m.

Quoting: Windjammer

Yes, it does. He isn't being traded, so his worth is irrelevant.

Sigh, that was an useless conversation.

So I'm actually buying a business and I have been asked how much my house was worth

This was my answer :

"Irrelevant as it is not for sale"

And if that wasn't funny enough, you were the ONE first talking about value "

"that deal isn't remotely close"

May 13, 2022 at 11:06 a.m.

#18

Mr_Canoehead

Joined: Oct. 2019

Posts: 3,131

Likes: 2,308

Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld

Would have to know Dubois situation. Is he telling winnipeg he won't sign? Is he going to arbitration? Does he want 9 million a year?

In terms of the Dubois' situation, Elliotte Friedman said the following (April 25th, 32 Thoughts podcast): "I don't think Pierre-Luc Dubois wants to be traded or anything like that. I don't think the Winnipeg Jets are looking to trade Pierre-Luc Dubois."

No news on arbitration or contract amounts and I don't expect many leaks from Cheveldayoff or Brisson.

May 13, 2022 at 11:24 a.m.

#19

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 15,901

Likes: 7,069

Quoting: Xspyrit

Sigh, that was an useless conversation.

So I'm actually buying a business and I have been asked how much my house was worth

This was my answer :

"Irrelevant as it is not for sale"

And if that wasn't funny enough, you were the ONE first talking about value "

"that deal isn't remotely close"

So, you fantastically overvalue the worth of draft picks and whine because poster with common sense don't agree with you? The answer is right there in front of you. If the offer isn't remotely close to being remotely close. It means it will take a lot more. So, why put names to it and let posters like yourself with an obvious bias start a pissing match about this player or that?

Your example is pointless, because it is you that is trying to start a business by putting your house on the market. Which isn't happening here. The Jets aren't trying to sell Dubois, you're trying you buy him when he isn't for sale.

So, that's like you saying, "I'm trying to start a business, how much is your house worth?" And me saying "it's my house and it's not for sale so the price is irrelevant." That's a more apt metaphor for what is happening here.

May 13, 2022 at 2:56 p.m.

#20

Xspyrit

Joined: Jul. 2016

Posts: 10,506

Likes: 3,721

Quoting: Windjammer

1) I have absolutely no idea of which "poster with common sense" you're talking about.

2) Where do I "fantastically overvalue the worth of draft picks" exactly?

3) Where did I "whine" exactly?

4) Where is the "answer is right there in front of you"?

YOU talked about value, I then asked a simple question, you didn't answer then after I mentioned it, you gave me a ridiculous reason as to why you didn't answer

And you consider yourself as a "poster with common sense"?

Quoting: Windjammer

Your example is pointless, because it is you that is trying to start a business by putting your house on the market. Which isn't happening here. The Jets aren't trying to sell Dubois, you're trying you buy him when he isn't for sale.

So, that's like you saying, "I'm trying to start a business, how much is your house worth?" And me saying "it's my house and it's not for sale so the price is irrelevant." That's a more apt metaphor for what is happening here.

Reading comprehension? I am not "starting" a business and I am NOT selling my house.

I also didn't say the example was an exact comparison. I used it to show that discussing value can be done without an asset being "available"

Why you refuse to tell other people how much you value your asset after your first talked about value is really nebulous. But somehow, you're still finding a way to NOT answer

And Wild fans are proposing Fiala for that 7th OA pick and Jarventie (good prospect but not blue chip)

How is that 7th OA pick and a 5th round pick NOT "remotely close" for Dubois?

And then you call others biased? popcorn

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