we miss leo k
Joined: Feb. 2018
Posts: 6,004
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-Toronto isn't giving up Knies *and* a 1st for Horvat. Horvat is a tough nut to crack for a trade comp because he's playing out of his mind right now - riding a 21.5% shooting bender after coming into the year shooting 13.1% for his career. There's serious regression potential in him, and I think teams are going to be more cautious based on that; meaning, to me, offers will probably be based on the type of player he had been the past few seasons rather than valuing him at the 58 goal pace he's currently on. I think a 1st, a top 5 prospect, and an additional pick for retention is probably what he gets - in this case I'd say the Leafs package would be the 1st, a 3rd, and Topi Niemela. Paying anything above that is a big risk because again: 21.5% shooting.
-I can't really see Anaheim doing this for you, one-for-one. The team is already kind of a mess defensively, so swapping a guy who had been a competent defensive forward in the past for one not really known for that part of his game doesn't seem like a wise move; the extra 8-10 goals that Boeser might bring over Vatrano also doesn't feel like it's going to really turn Anaheim from a lottery team into a contender. If the Ducks are moving a guy they like, and taking back a worse cap hit on a player that doesn't really change their trajectory, I think you gotta add something to the Vancouver side or else the Ducks pass.
-I really don't see the Avs being a team that's going go to be unloading picks or prospects at the deadline. They're not going to be as desperate for upgrades as the defending Cup champs - repeating is nice, sure, but once you've reached the top of the mountain I feel like you're going to be less likely to mortgage the future to do it again. Schenn would also be the 7th D on a healthy Avs team, which seems like a heavy price to pay for a guy that's not playing every day. It's way more likely they move a weaker asset for a Troy Stecher-esque player, in my opinion.
-To follow up that last point: I could much more easily see the Avs giving up a late round pick for Kyle Burroughs than giving up a premium asset for Luke Schenn. I'd peg that as way more likely than a kind of floundering Caps team giving up anything in this year's draft for a rental upgrade.