Trading Marino is counterproductive, they won't do that. Meier is also not worth as much as Tkachuk, nor is New Jersey paying for a sign and trade like Florida did

i’m not sayin either of these are the actual value, but they represent a comparison to the two similar players traded last year.
and the step down from Tkatchuk to Meier is less than the step from Huberdeau and Weegar to Bratt and Marino. wouldn’t you agree?

Problem is that Weegar and Huberdeau are older than Tkachuk and were on expiring deals, while Bratt and Marino are both younger than Meier and have more team control. That was a calculated overpay by FLR to get younger and save money and get something out of Weegar, while here there's no benefit for NJ to do this trade.

Also, Meier will probably get less than DeBrincat if he's moved in a similar move but that's a much better comp than this "Tkachuk comp" that you came up with.

Fiala is a far better comparison IMO.

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i was doing the best I could to give an example and i get it’s not perfect. but i don’t get how everyone is saying Meier is a drop from Tkatchuk or Debrincat. Meier plays on a worse team and has more goals and has created mor high danger scoring chances this year and he’s on pace for 40+ goals.

but he isn’t, Min had no chance in resigning him and moved him out of desperation rather than lose him for nothing
sharks can QO and can go to arbitration with meier meaning we at least have him for next year. so we have a year to move him or lose him for nothing

Ok then who do you consider a good comparison? Tkachuk was traded with an 8 year extension in place and DeBrincat was traded with a full NHL season before RFA. How about a compromise and say it's somewhere between Cat and Fiala

Well DeBrincat was on a team similar to SJ, even if he's just as good that's what the expectation since Meier is being traded during the year/next off-season vs last off-season. He's not going to be put in the same conversation as Tkachuk if he doesn't get 100 pts, but the issue with the "Tkachuk comp" was that it wasn't even remotely similar. A NJ version would be more like trading Meier for Palat or Wood+Severson+Holtz+ a 1st or something like that. My example isn't perfect but it at least has some elements of the Tkachuk trade. It's worth noting that 1) the Tkachuk trade probably won't have a similar since that was by far the best offer for him according to Treliving and 2) NJ really has no motivation to give up a ton for Meier but if they really like him over Bratt then maybe there's a possibility of getting Bratt+Severson for Meier with an extension but that probably means Bratt would have to want more than Meier.

that is probably more accurate but i would stay away from Holtz as that’s been a contentious issue here.
Fiala was desperation and Tkatchuk was a massive overpay.
my feeling is a little more than Debrincat would be reasonable considering most experts saw that as an underpay. plus Meier is comming off a 35 goal season and on pace for 40+ and he is one of the best in the game at creating high danger scoring chances.
Holtz plus a 23 1st seems fair or 23 & 24 1st plus a 25 2nd and someone like Walsh seems fair. it’s not an overpay but not an underpay and the sharks should allow NJD to at least start contract negotiations prior to the deal to ensure he is at least willing to agree to a reasonable extention with them.

I think a lot of people with the DeBrincat trade were expecting more because he had two 40 G seasons under his belt and was on pace for 50 G in another but they also kind of underestimated the return but it probably had to do with the quality of the last draft vs the upcoming one and the fact that there was a lot of uncertainty surrounding that last draft due to a lack of scouting/games due to Covid. You also need to take into consideration that he had a full year with the Sens.

I'm guessing that Meier will be traded under the expectation that he's a pure rental which doesn't mean that he won't get a boatload although the premium rental market could be flooded with options. However, if a team like NJ or Det make a move for him, where they could potentially give up a decent package like Holtz+ a 1st (not necessarily 2023) + Walsh or something similar. Somewhere between DeBrincat and Fiala is a reasonable expectation though.

Neither Tkachuk or Cat are valid comparables

If he gets traded next offseason, it would be close to Fiala

Here are some realistic comps

Debrincat, Fiala, Reinhart etc

Although it has been said teams are offering “less than Debrincat” (Frank Seravalli)

Tkachuk is not worth bringing up here

Holtz + 1st + Walsh would be more than DeBrincat and Fiala returns. Quite a bit more. And considering Meier will not have extension in place at time of trade, he will get a less than Fiala (who had deal in place at time of trade) and less that DeBrincat (as been reported). I think the price would end up looking more like a rental (late 1st and decent prospect).

That was more of an example of a significant package in trade & sign deal which I'm not expecting to happen but it could. The last sentence was just a last comment and me agreeing with Ledge_And_Dairy's reply about Meier potentially landing something between DeBrincat and Fiala-should have put it on a separate line. My expectation though is that he is shipped off as a rental as you suggested.

Bratt is not a step down from Meier lol

to you! your looking at undervalued comps only and ignoring any overpays to skew the value in the Devils favor and it isn’t realistic

he absolutely is

ok now why would the sharks give up their best player or that paltry return?

seriously Monahan is asking is a 1st, Giroux got 1st 3rd and a prospect. hell a goalie Kuemper got a 1st a RD prospect and a 3rd.
So apparently Meier is on those guys level and not Debrincat or Tkatchuk? well sharks should just keep their picks

I listed seven comps. Have used about 4-5 others in different posts. Like it or not, these are indicative of what the market will pay. Devils have to deal with same issue with Bratt, who would likely return the same, if not more, than Meier.

DeBrincat got a 1st, 2nd, 3rd (Meier expect to be less than this). The 1st was paid to move Monahan (not for him). Avs were desert are for goalie in Kuemper. Giroux got future 1st and busted prospect heading into RFA year. Holtz and 2023 1st would be far more valuable than any of these.

When was the last time a top-25 prospect was dealt with a 1st round pick?

Eichel 2021
ROR 2018
Ryan 2013
Nash 2012
Burns 2011
Demitra 2006
Lindros 1992

Three wingers. No pending RFAs. No big QOs.

For top-50 prospect with 1st, add deals like....

Fiala 2022
Coleman 2020
Pominville 2013
Staal 2012
Penner 2011

I think this is one of the biggest issues on this site. Everyone gets hung up on "what's this person's comparable" when there really are none. Trades are so circumstantial that it's arbitrary to say something won't happen because it's more than what Tkachuk got, or Cat got, is arbitrary.

Lets remember Cat was being actively shopped by Chicago AND the return was widely seen as very disappointing for Chicago. The reason it was so bad was because CHI got desperate for a top pick (since they traded away their 1st to Columbus) and had to settle for what they did end up getting. Tkachuk ASKED for a trade so the team had to get one done and still got a great return, which would imply if they were merely listening to offers then they may have been able to get even more. Fiala I wholeheartedly disagree is the better player than Meier, bet lets say they're equal value, the Wild didn't have the Cap to sign him so they HAD to deal him, so the return should have been much higher than it actually was.

None of those teams had the control, but with the Sharks they are the one's to be saying yes or no, not the buyers. If Timo comes out and says he won't be re-signing or asks for a trade then that's a different story, but as of now the Sharks will by looking for a very good return, otherwise they'll re-sign Timo

Last 3 years:
GAR/60 -- M: 0.557 || B: 0.589
xGAR/60 -- M: 0.511 || B: 0.792
RAPM xG+-/60 -- M: 0.23 || B: 0.318
RAPM C+-/60 -- M: 4.49 || B: 5.26
RAPM Goals +-/60 -- M: 0.175 || B: 0.195
Points/60 -- M: 2.76 || B: 3.07
A1/60 -- M: 0.83 || B: 1.17
G/60 -- M: 1.27 || B: 0.98

Meier is better than Bratt in exactly 1 category, an individual one mostly due to his extremely high volume of shots (22.9 iCF/60 compared to 15.09). His net impact on the game is worse than Bratt in every regard.

He is likely a step down from Bratt rather than a step up.

He is also 2 years older and will cost about the same amount of money.

the ask from Montreal For Monahan this TDL is a 1st. wasn't speaking of his deal TO Montreal.
Meier, is a top 25 wing and is 26. the ask should be a 1st plus a top prospect, I just don't understand why everyone devalues Meier soooo much.
If the sharks had no shot at being able to resign him because of cap (Like Fiala) or him being a UFA at season end (giroux and he was a UFA FYI) or had an intended full scale rebuild (like Debrincat) I could understand the argument.
but the sharks management is stuck on not wanting a full tear-down rebuild, so the only way way Meier is moved is with a substantial haul and no one on here thinks hes worth anywhere close to what I would feel is fair value.

for instance if you Had Meier on your team would you move him for a 1st and a B level prospect? I know you wouldn't! especially given this isn't a move him or lose him situation yet. say we QO him and next year he states he wants to walk, then we could retain 50% and move him at the deadline for a 1st plus a mid level prospect and thats better than nothing, but we don't have to move him yet so why pull the trigger on an underwhelming return.

Meier this year and last 111 goals played 52 Goals 56 assists 108 points and a corsi of 57.6% vs the sharks team corsi of 46.3% showing he is literally carrying the sharks.
Bratt 108 games played 36 goals 68 assists 104 points and a corsi of 58.7% vs the team corsi of 54.2% showing he is a VERY good player but not quite the level Meier has been the last 2 years.

Meier has been on an Island the last 2 years and is the only reason the sharks haven't had the worst record in hockey.
In a team sport you have to understand the dynamic of the players around the player as much as the player himself. and Bratt has a much better cast around him than Meier has had.
just look at what Kane did when he left the sharks for the Oilers
20/21 sharks 56GP 22G 27A 49P Corsi 51.9
21 & 22/3 Oilers 57GP 27G 25A 52P Corsi 56.7
he has had a significant uptick in Gaols and Corsi % away fro the sharks and Meier will much likely have the same uptick.