Are the Leafs a serious contender

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: Leafsfan98

Team: 2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Jan. 9, 2023

Published: Jan. 9, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

I am curious now that we are pretty much half way through the season and can pretty much confirm a playoff spot for the Leafs. I want to ask the question Leaf fans have been asking themselves all year. Here are my notes from this season good and bad from each line:

Offense:
Line 1:Bunting - Matthews - Nylander
Good: That line is dominant and we can confirm Matthews can easily get into people's heads when he's on the ice. Matthews also makes the people around him better (see Nylander). Bunting has started to develop his stride again and Nylander is on pace for his best season.
Bad: Besides Matthews, the line produces no defence and can go into a slump of not being able to find the back of the net

Line 2: Jarnkrok - Tavares - Marner
Good: Dubas has found a place for Jarnkrok and Tavares doesn't look like he is slowing down. Marner is starting to be a late back checker which is good
Bad: I looked up no defence in the dictionary, I saw a picture of Mitch Marner. Tavares is also getting older which worries me due to his high cap hit.

Line 3: Kerfoot - Kampf - Engvall
Good: Normal checking line
Bad: Normal checking line

Line 4: Zack Aston-Reese - Holmberg - Hunt/Simmonds
Good: Holmberg is phenomenal and ZAR has been sneaky good. I love the Wayne Train. I don't have a full opinion on Hunt
Bad: I don't get to see Simmonds more often

Defense
Pairing 1: Morgan Rielly - Timothy Liljegren
Good: I love these 2. both are puck moving defensemen
Bad: Rielly is just coming back from an injury and Lilly is inexperienced in the playoffs

Pairing 2: Mark Giodarno - Justin Holl
Good: By far, this has looked like our best pairing
Bad: Gio is old and Holl has wandering disease sometimes

Pairing 3: Rasmus Sandin - Connor Timmins
Good: Sandin is great in a low risk situation and Timmins should get Norris votes if he continues to play like he is
Bad: Both are inexperienced and are injury prone

Paring 4: T.J. Brodie
Good: I really like Brodie
Bad: I don't know where to put him in the lineup

Goalies:
1A: Matt Murray
Good: Murray has bailed us out a bunch of times
Bad: He has 2 minutes every game where his brain shuts down which could be bad in the wrong 2 minutes

1B: Ilya Samsonov
Good: Cheap, 10 - 0 - 1 at home, bails us out sometimes
Bad: Is known to be out the gate quick and slow down tremendously as the season goes on

The question is: Do you think the Toronto Maple Leafs are a legitimate contender at the Stanley Cup? (ignore their history but the team itself)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

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ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$82,500,000	$80,536,246	$212,500	$0	$1,963,754

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Bunting, Michael $950,000$950,000 LW UFA - 1	Matthews, Auston $11,640,250$11,640,250 C UFA - 2	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 2
Järnkrok, Calle $2,100,000$2,100,000 RW, C, LW M-NTC UFA - 4	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 3	Marner, Mitchell $10,903,000$10,903,000 RW UFA - 3
Kerfoot, Alexander $3,500,000$3,500,000 LW, C, RW M-NTC UFA - 1		Engvall, Pierre $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Aston-Reese, Zach $840,630$840,630 LW, RW UFA - 1	Kämpf, David $1,500,000$1,500,000 C UFA - 1	Simmonds, Wayne $900,000$900,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 1
Hunt, Dryden $762,500$762,500 LW, RW UFA - 1	Holmberg, Pontus $827,500$827,500 C, LW RFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $7,500,000$7,500,000 LD NMC UFA - 8	Liljegren, Timothy $1,400,000$1,400,000 RD RFA - 2	Murray, Matt $4,687,500$4,687,500 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Giordano, Mark $800,000$800,000 LD UFA - 2	Holl, Justin $2,000,000$2,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 1	Samsonov, Ilya $1,800,000$1,800,000 G UFA - 1
Sandin, Rasmus $1,400,000$1,400,000 LD UFA - 2	Timmins, Conor $850,000$850,000 RD RFA - 1
Brodie, TJ $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD/RD NTC UFA - 2	Benn, Jordie $750,000$750,000 LD/RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		Muzzin, Jake $5,625,000$5,625,000 LD NTC UFA - 2
		Robertson, Nicholas $796,667$796,667 LW, RW RFA - 2
		Mete, Victor $750,000$750,000 LD/RD UFA - 1

Jan. 9, 2023 at 11:01 a.m.

SNipeSHowInc

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 2,273

Likes: 699

Yes I’d says the 3rd overall team in the league is a legitimate cup contender

Saskleaf liked this.

Jan. 9, 2023 at 11:02 a.m.

littlejerryseinfeld

Joined: Nov. 2017

Posts: 27,861

Likes: 14,564

I'm not sure how anyone could think marner plays no defense

Rage44, SNipeSHowInc, swinny and 2 others liked this.

Jan. 9, 2023 at 11:06 a.m.

Leafsfan98

Thread Starter

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 9,893

Likes: 2,999

Quoting: SNipeSHowInc

Yes I’d says the 3rd overall team in the league is a legitimate cup contender

I'm just saying with the Lightning and the Avs finding their foot, the Bruins looking dangerous and the Stars/Golden Knights not being that far behind

Jan. 9, 2023 at 11:08 a.m.

Leafsfan98

Thread Starter

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 9,893

Likes: 2,999

Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld

I'm not sure how anyone could think marner plays no defense

I dare you to watch a Leafs game and focus on Marner when the puck gets turned over in the offensive zone

Jan. 9, 2023 at 11:08 a.m.

SNipeSHowInc

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 2,273

Likes: 699

Quoting: Leafsfan98

I'm just saying with the Lightning and the Avs finding their foot, the Bruins looking dangerous and the Stars/Golden Knights not being that far behind

How have the Leafs done against those teams this year? 4-1-2?

Jan. 9, 2023 at 11:14 a.m.

Leafsfan98

Thread Starter

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 9,893

Likes: 2,999

Quoting: SNipeSHowInc

How have the Leafs done against those teams this year? 4-1-2?

Yes but like I said, 2 of those teams are just starting to figure it out and the Bruins are spanking teams right now. We know from experience how the Bruins/Lightning play come playoffs and I am just curious whether or not the Leafs will be able to keep up with that run and gun style of play

Jan. 9, 2023 at 11:14 a.m.

habs_need_Scoring

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 1,621

Likes: 794

Quoting: SNipeSHowInc

Yes I’d says the 3rd overall team in the league is a legitimate cup contender

There always near the top of the standings so thats pretty irrelevant. The real question is can they put it all together when it counts and get out of that first round. There's no question they have the skill and the team to compete for the cup but at this point its just as much about them not beating themselves as it is about them losing to another team. There's a good chance its a first round match up against Tampa again so its going to be a tough match up for sure.

That being said I do think they will get passed them and i think after that hurdle they will be a tough team to knock out. As much as it is fun watching them get bounced in the first round year after year, they're too strong of a team too continue falling short.

Leafsfan98 liked this.

Jan. 9, 2023 at 11:17 a.m.

SNipeSHowInc

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 2,273

Likes: 699

Quoting: Leafsfan98

Run and gun doesn’t really describe the way Tampa and Boston play in the playoffs. If the previous playoffs dating back to 2017 are any indication of they can “keep up” to those teams, the answer is yes… it goes the distance every.single.time

Jan. 9, 2023 at 11:24 a.m.

Ledge_And_Dairy

Joined: Jun. 2019

Posts: 38,479

Likes: 19,636

They will make a splash at the TDL at the very least. Dubas is fighting for his next contract (either Toronto or elsewhere) so if he can't show some results then it hurts his chances greatly

Jan. 9, 2023 at 11:27 a.m.

#10

OilersRule

Joined: Oct. 2022

Posts: 361

Likes: 183

Quoting: SNipeSHowInc

How have the Leafs done against those teams this year? 4-1-2?

And the leafs are 2-3-2 against Anaheim, Arizona, SJ and Montreal. They've yet to play Chicago or Columbus to round out the bottom of the league.

To the OP, Toronto is not a serious contender, using regular season results doesn't equate being a serious contender.

They've finished regularly in the top 6-7 teams the past 5 years and have made no "serious" runs.

Toronto's defense is getting exposed more as of late, and the goaltending has been shaky, the old notion of a "3rd line = checking line" is antiquated, in the current NHL, you need 3 lines of scoring to win a cup, Tampa relied on Cirelli/Gourde/Perry/Colton, Colorado had Compher, Burakovsky and both teams relied on heavy contributions throughout the D-core.

I don't see Lil, Sandin, Gio or Holl popping up 10-ish points

I don't see Kerfoot, Kampf, Engvall popping up 10-ish points.

They're a great regular season team, but not built for the current NHL playoffs.

Jan. 9, 2023 at 11:27 a.m.

#11

Leafsfan98

Thread Starter

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

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Likes: 2,999

Quoting: SNipeSHowInc

That is a fair point but even if you get past Tampa, you have to deal with Vasy and in Boston's case Ulmark who are playing at Vezina calmer seasons

Jan. 9, 2023 at 11:30 a.m.

#12

MisstheWhalers

Joined: Jan. 2019

Posts: 23,684

Likes: 12,381

Yes the Leafs are a serious contender.

Not a chance Brodie isn't in the lineup over three inexperienced dmen.

Saskleaf liked this.

Jan. 9, 2023 at 11:37 a.m.

#13

Leafsfan98

Thread Starter

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 9,893

Likes: 2,999

Quoting: OilersRule

First, I am asking about the team, not the Toronto's history.

Second, if you look at Toronto's team and compare it to Tampa (really 4 players trying to carry the team with Kuch being hated in the DR) or Colorado (injury riddled season not in a playoff spot or Edmonton for example (no 3rd or 4rth line/no defence/ no goalie), is Toronto really the far off if Sammy or Murray or both catch heat before playoffs

Third, Toronto physically isn't as disadvantaged as you try to make it seem (average height 6'1", average weight 201 lbs with Mitch Marner and Wayne Simmonds on the team)

Obviously, you entitled to your own opinion and that's why I posted this but above is mine

Jan. 9, 2023 at 11:38 a.m.

#14

Leafsfan98

Thread Starter

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 9,893

Likes: 2,999

Quoting: MisstheWhalers

Yes the Leafs are a serious contender.

Not a chance Brodie isn't in the lineup over three inexperienced dmen.

I know he is in the lineup, I just don't know where

Jan. 9, 2023 at 11:49 a.m.

#15

SNipeSHowInc

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 2,273

Likes: 699

Quoting: OilersRule

Toronto’s defence hasn’t been “getting exposed as of late” they just had the worst save percentage in the league at the time while mainting the best expected goals against in the league

Jan. 9, 2023 at 11:51 a.m.

#16

swinny

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 4,801

Likes: 2,012

What is different about this team than is past years is the improved defensive play as a team. In past years, they have had a mindset of skill winning the day. Clearly that doesn't work...... Tampa won two Cups because they could all defend.

For me, they do need a top 6 LW. Although Jarnkrok has looked good there, he is so much better suited as a 3rd line option.

Having said that, Meier, Bertuzzi, Tarasenko are not the guys I am talking about. I strongly feel that Adam Henrique is that fit. Fits the current system. Can pot 50 points. Can play centre in case of injury. And with 50% retention, Leafs can use him next year and still sign Bunting.

Adding here us not about finding the 50 goal scorer. It's about finding the guy that fills that spot well and adds real depth to the team.

Tampa won 2 cups by rounding out their 3rd line. Last year I would say the Lehkonen deal was a huge move for the Avs (no disrespect to Manson).

But if we zero in in Lehkonen........ foward who plays 200 feet, and could produce 40 points. Ended up in the top 6 and had a whale of a playoff.

Tell me that doesn't sound like Henrique?

Jan. 9, 2023 at 12:21 p.m.

#17

sens65

Joined: Mar. 2018

Posts: 7,142

Likes: 3,493

On paper, they are a contender but I also thought they were contenders in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022.

Jan. 9, 2023 at 12:30 p.m.

#18

Leafsfan98

Thread Starter

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 9,893

Likes: 2,999

Quoting: sens65

On paper, they are a contender but I also thought they were contenders in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022.

What about eye test this year?

sens65 liked this.

Jan. 9, 2023 at 12:58 p.m.

#19

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,713

Likes: 22,770

Let's look at the best teams in the league this.......Bruins, Leafs, Tampa,Canaes Dallas, Vegas and (and I'll include the defending Cup Avs)...
That's seven . Certainly the Leafs are in the mix as serious contenders.
Why wouldn't anybody think differently. Believe the Leafs are third in goal differencial. Either way, looks like a showdown in the first round with Tampa again.

drambui liked this.

Jan. 9, 2023 at 1:18 p.m.

#20

sens65

Joined: Mar. 2018

Posts: 7,142

Likes: 3,493

Quoting: Leafsfan98

What about eye test this year?

Definitely contenders.

Jan. 9, 2023 at 2:20 p.m.

#21

Leafsfan98

Thread Starter

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 9,893

Likes: 2,999

Quoting: palhal

I prefer the Leafs in this matchup. The series last year could have gone either way and I believe Tampa got worse whereas the Leafs got better

Jan. 10, 2023 at 12:21 p.m.

#22

OilersRule

Joined: Oct. 2022

Posts: 361

Likes: 183

Quoting: Leafsfan98

Point 1 - it's not about the history dictating the future, but the fact that historically they've been in this same position of the regular season, with a similar core roster, and were not serious contenders. So, would I consider them serious contenders? no... because they've done this all before, and to no avail.

Point 2 - any team can make a run if the Goaltending gets hot, Montreal made the finals and finished in last place a year later, so, yeah, Sammy and Murray CAN, but if i had to bet, it would be they won't.

Point 3 - I never brought up size, the big issue with Toronto is lack of depth, they have 4th liners rounding out their 3rd line, that's not a recipe for long term playoff success. Their D don't move the puck well, or contribute a reasonable amount of offense to make up for the lack of scoring punch up front beyond the top 2 lines, and even there, that LW core is not very impressive with Bunting and Engvall as their top point getters at that position.

I just don't think Toronto has the depth necessary to be a "serious" contender, serious contenders don't rely on pieces falling into place to make a run.

Jan. 10, 2023 at 2:09 p.m.

#23

Leafsfan98

Thread Starter

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 9,893

Likes: 2,999

Quoting: OilersRule

To be fair, you're 1rst point makes sense but:

Point 2 - Sammy and Murray each have .919 save percentages with Sammy having a 2.24 GAA.To give you an idea, Vasy last season has an .919 save percentage (I am not saying Sammy is better but a recognizable comparable in save percentage), Kuemper had a .921 save pecentage on the Stanley cup winning Avs. I don't think that Sammy or Murray to to get hot for the Leafs to win.

Point 3 - I would like you to name 4rth line caliber players playing 3rd line minutes

Jan. 10, 2023 at 2:12 p.m.

#24

mondo

torontos finest

Joined: Jul. 2019

Posts: 9,560

Likes: 11,192

leafs are 3rd in the league. if you're 3rd in the league you're looking to go for the cup.

"BuT tHeY cAnT gEt OuT oF tHe FiRsT rOuNd". yeah, under that same logic you should stay living with your parents because you can't find a job. very dumb to assume they aren't going to try.

Leafsfan98 liked this.

Jan. 10, 2023 at 2:38 p.m.

#25

Rage44

Joined: Jan. 2022

Posts: 835

Likes: 371

The Leafs are contenders.
Are they favorites? no.

They've played better TEAM D this season than ever before. Their scoring is down by their standards, but there aren't many teams I would expect to outscore them in a 7 game series.
No matter what, TOR is destined to play a good team in the first round- most likely TB.
I think TOR is good enough to win & advance, but TB is @ their best in the postseason, and Vasi can steal a series.

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Are the Leafs a serious contender

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