A Look At Competing Next Season

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: ricochetii

Team: 2023-24 Montreal Canadiens

Initial Creation Date: Mar. 12, 2023

Published: Mar. 12, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

This is not my personal preference. I want to stick with rebuilding and developing for another year at least.
Hypothetically, if we DID want to compete, we need at minimum a top 6 center, top 4 RHD, and starting goaltender.
You can add/remove to balance the trades if necessary. I'm just shooting for ballpark to illustrate what we are giving up by rushing the rebuild or cutting it short.

Dubois: It's going to cost to get him now versus later. If we aren't willing to be patient, we pay. I don't recommend it, but the point is to show what a rushed rebuild might look like.

Hart: A gamble, but I simply don't see Montembeault as the guy, admirable as he's been in a poor situation. Hedging our bets here and running a tandem. Philly gets a temp netminder and a do-over pick high in the 2nd where one of this year's goaltenders may be available (or they can simply go for BPA).
Alternatively we run with Monty/Allen and draft a goaltender ourselves.

Murphy: Might take more, but he's also a placeholder to show we are going to have to pay an approximate price to add a top 4D from somewhere.

Hoffman and/or Edmundson can be moved out. Trade value doesn't matter here. It's just to get cap compliant. Otherwise they are in rotation and we bring up the others at the end of the season and pinch some pennies elsewhere.

Synopsis:

Overall I don't feel like this is a top team. More of a get in the playoffs and make some noise team.
In order to reach that top tier, we're going to have to be patient and stingy with our assets. We've taken a few measured risks with Dach and our other acquisitions, and a couple of project players, but we need the elite young talent you normally only get through drafting and developing, to compete with the NJ's, Buffalo's, and Ottawa's.

This upcoming season is a big draft and then a likely remodeling of the forward group in progress.
24/25 is when we really start looking at making the playoffs. The opportunity cost is simply too high for that to be our goal for next season.
25/26 is when we start looking at upgrades/rentals using our excess accumulated assets.

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST		YEARS	CAP HIT
Farrell, Sean		2	$900,000

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Dubois, Pierre-Luc	8	$8,500,000
Caufield, Cole	8	$7,750,000
Harvey-Pinard, Rafaël	2	$900,000
Pezzetta, Michael	2	$900,000
Gurianov, Denis	1	$2,900,000

Trades

MTL

Dubois, Pierre-Luc [RFA Rights]

Additional Details:

Trade at 2023 Draft

WPG

Beck, Owen
2023 1st round pick (FLA)
2024 1st round pick (MTL)

Additional Details:

*Conditional pick: If Montreal wins 2 playoff rounds in 2024, the 2024 1st can be swapped for their 2025 1st.

MTL

Hart, Carter

PHI

Allen, Jake
2023 2nd round pick (MTL)

MTL

Murphy, Connor

CHI

Mailloux, Logan
2023 3rd round pick (MTL)
2025 1st round pick (CGY)

Buyouts

Karl Alzner: $833,333

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
21	$83,500,000	$83,008,166	$1,170,000	$4,195,000	$491,834

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Caufield, Cole $7,750,000$7,750,000 LW, RW UFA - 8	Suzuki, Nick $7,875,000$7,875,000 C UFA - 7	Dach, Kirby $3,362,500$3,362,500 C, RW RFA - 3
Gurianov, Denis $2,900,000$2,900,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Dubois, Pierre-Luc $8,500,000$8,500,000 C UFA - 8	Anderson, Josh $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 4
Slafkovsky, Juraj $950,000$950,000 ($3,500,000$4M) RW, LW RFA - 2	Dvorak, Christian $4,450,000$4,450,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Gallagher, Brendan $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 4
Harvey-Pinard, Rafaël $900,000$900,000 LW, RW RFA - 2	Evans, Jake $1,700,000$1,700,000 C UFA - 2	Armia, Joel $3,400,000$3,400,000 RW, LW UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Matheson, Michael $4,875,000$4,875,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 3	Murphy, Connor $4,400,000$4,400,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 3	Hart, Carter $3,979,000$3,979,000 G RFA - 1
Guhle, Kaiden $863,333$863,333 ($420,000$420K) LD/RD RFA - 2	Savard, David $3,500,000$3,500,000 RD UFA - 2	Montembeault, Samuel $1,000,000$1,000,000 G UFA - 1
Harris, Jordan $1,400,000$1,400,000 LD/RD RFA - 2	Barron, Justin $925,000$925,000 ($275,000$275K) RD RFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Pezzetta, Michael $900,000$900,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Edmundson, Joel $875,000$875,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 1	Price, Carey $10,500,000$10,500,000 G NMC UFA - 3
	Hoffman, Mike $4,500,000$4,500,000 LW UFA - 1

Taxi Squad
Farrell, Sean $900,000$900,000 ($0$0$0$0) RW, LW RFA - 2
Xhekaj, Arber $828,333$828,333 ($0$0$0$0) LD/RD RFA - 1

Mar. 12, 2023 at 4:28 p.m.

Campabee

Joined: Nov. 2018

Posts: 15,664

Likes: 6,513

LMAO, Habs aren't trading 2 1sts + top 50 prospect in the league for a guy we can OS for a 1st and 3rd (if he agrees to it) or wait 1 year and sign without giving up anything.

Mar. 12, 2023 at 4:33 p.m.

ricochetii

Thread Starter

Go Habs Go

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 10,667

Likes: 4,092

Quoting: Campabee

LMAO, Habs aren't trading 2 1sts + top 50 prospect in the league for a guy we can OS for a 1st and 3rd (if he agrees to it) or wait 1 year and sign without giving up anything.

Dubois: It's going to cost to get him now versus later. If we aren't willing to be patient, we pay. I don't recommend it, but the point is to show what a rushed rebuild might look like.

OldNYIfan and Mr_Canoehead liked this.

Mar. 12, 2023 at 4:46 p.m.

Campabee

Joined: Nov. 2018

Posts: 15,664

Likes: 6,513

Quoting: ricochetii

Dubois: It's going to cost to get him now versus later. If we aren't willing to be patient, we pay. I don't recommend it, but the point is to show what a rushed rebuild might look like.

Not more than Fiala cost LA! Fiala was a ppg player, Dubois has never hit more than 60 points (even this year he likely tops out at 70 points playing on the Jets potent offense). We also wouldn't be trading for a signed player but just his negotiating rights, therefore giving up 2 1sts is super unrealistic.

Mar. 12, 2023 at 4:48 p.m.

Hawksguy81

Joined: Nov. 2022

Posts: 9,133

Likes: 11,111

Hawks probably accept. They probably accept if just the two picks are offered

ricochetii liked this.

Mar. 12, 2023 at 4:54 p.m.

Howie

Joined: Jan. 2022

Posts: 4,070

Likes: 1,457

Quoting: Campabee

You know it was for fiala's rights as well so that part of your argument is false

Mar. 12, 2023 at 4:58 p.m.

ricochetii

Thread Starter

Go Habs Go

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 10,667

Likes: 4,092

Quoting: Campabee

This is a desperation move for Montreal. Winnipeg doesn't have to sell him yet. We want him now. That's taking us from the driver seat in negotiations to paying a premium.
We aren't looking at a fair deal here. Maybe that later 1st can be a 2nd, I'm going ballpark.
The UFA market is also weak for C this year. Not a lot of alternatives unless you go for someone like Miller or Hayes.

If we're patient, absolutely we'll get him cheaper (preferably free), assuming he's going to sign long term here at some point.

Quoting: Hawksguy81

Hawks probably accept. They probably accept if just the two picks are offered

Tried to compensate for Mailloux's baggage and the pick being further out.

Hawksguy81, Just_A_Guess and OldNYIfan liked this.

Mar. 12, 2023 at 5:06 p.m.

Campabee

Joined: Nov. 2018

Posts: 15,664

Likes: 6,513

Quoting: ricochetii

Montreal isn't at a weakness though, they have the ability to talk to PLD about signing a 1 year 6.3 mil OS and only potentially losing a 1st and 3rd. Why would PLD agree to it? Because he gets to go where he wants and be locked up for 9 years if he agrees to an 8 year extention in January.

Mar. 12, 2023 at 5:09 p.m.

Campabee

Joined: Nov. 2018

Posts: 15,664

Likes: 6,513

Quoting: Howie

You know it was for fiala's rights as well so that part of your argument is false

Exactly, Fiala was an RFA with 1 more season of team control same as Dubois. Hence the reason it is used as a comp

Mar. 12, 2023 at 5:21 p.m.

Just_A_Guess

Joined: Apr. 2021

Posts: 5,067

Likes: 3,355

Quoting: Campabee

I think he's trying to show a situation where we are in a "we need him now" stage. Not that he believes we should be making the trade as proposed.

ricochetii and Mr_Canoehead liked this.

Mar. 12, 2023 at 5:28 p.m.

#10

ricochetii

Thread Starter

Go Habs Go

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 10,667

Likes: 4,092

Quoting: Campabee

Offer sheets are not a preferred tool for a reason. Not only because it leads to reprisals, but because it sours relationships and your standing in the GM fraternity.
I'd rather not have Hughes go down that road unless maybe every other path is a dead end. He's still building as a GM and that's a scorched earth move.

OldNYIfan liked this.

Mar. 12, 2023 at 5:33 p.m.

#11

ricochetii

Thread Starter

Go Habs Go

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 10,667

Likes: 4,092

Quoting: Just_A_Guess

I think he's trying to show a situation where we are in a "we need him now" stage. Not that he believes we should be making the trade as proposed.

Thank you. That is the idea. If we want him now, it has to hurt.
A reasonable/fair deal, or offer sheet is a price we are willing to pay. Taking him this offseason would be a more uncomfortable price to pay.
I've reiterated that I would simply wait for UFA.

OldNYIfan and Just_A_Guess liked this.

Mar. 12, 2023 at 5:44 p.m.

#12

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,942

Likes: 25,741

I think that you made your point to anyone with an open mind who was listening. Maybe some people could stand to re-read the last part of your Team Description headed "Synopsis."

The only thing intelligent I can think to add is don't forget to keep an eye out for Jakob Dobes.

ricochetii liked this.

Mar. 12, 2023 at 5:51 p.m.

#13

ricochetii

Thread Starter

Go Habs Go

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 10,667

Likes: 4,092

Quoting: OldNYIfan

Dobes is on my radar for sure. I've also been telling people I think he could be our future starter. With goalies it never hurts to have another option of course. Better to lose an extra one than not have a primary one.

OldNYIfan liked this.

Mar. 12, 2023 at 6:12 p.m.

#14

Campabee

Joined: Nov. 2018

Posts: 15,664

Likes: 6,513

Quoting: ricochetii

I get what you are saying but don't agree with your price. There has been mutual interest already at the last draft the sticking point was reportedly Montreal wanted to include the 2022 13th OVA pick and Winnipeg wanted a 2023 pick. The deal never went through cause Hughes wasn't willing to move a 2023 1st so we moved on to Dach. A year later I don't see where he is going to be any more willing to move a 2023 1st let alone add a 2nd 1st to the mix. BTW the offersheet also provides a 3rd benefit if the Jets don't want to match but also don't want to get just a 1st and 3rd in return it also means the Habs and Jets have 7 days to work out a more reasonable trade for both parties. The Jets would be forced to only negotiate with the Habs and would have to consider a package between the 1st and 3rd and 1st good prospect like Beck or Kidney and a Dvorak type of roster player. I also never said head straight to an OS I just said I prefer it to giving up 2 1sts +

ricochetii liked this.

Mar. 12, 2023 at 6:20 p.m.

#15

ricochetii

Thread Starter

Go Habs Go

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 10,667

Likes: 4,092

Quoting: Campabee

I can definitely see why Winnipeg wanted a 23 1st. They knew that was a Bedard lottery ticket. I wouldn't have given it up either.
We've given up enough 1sts for centers recently. No more.
I wouldn't mind negotiating lower, but temper expectations. Dubois in Montreal next season is dependent on how aggressive we are and it's not the right time to be aggressive at all.

Campabee liked this.

Mar. 12, 2023 at 6:33 p.m.

#16

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 16,187

Likes: 7,204

That may be enough to get you into the running for PLD.

Mar. 12, 2023 at 6:51 p.m.

#17

ricochetii

Thread Starter

Go Habs Go

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 10,667

Likes: 4,092

Quoting: Windjammer

That may be enough to get you into the running for PLD.

It only goes lower from there. This is assuming at this year's draft so we have him to start the season and you have a guy on the board you want to select.

Once the teams have all allocated their cap he becomes a rental and we're out of the running to see if he really wants to come to Montreal as a free agent.
If we don't take him at the draft, we aren't making the other trades and aren't competing this year, so our 2024 1st is in the lottery and unavailable as well.
UFA center crop is stronger next year so he won't be the only option either.

I understand if Winnipeg keeps him looking to compete next season. Maybe you can lock him up. Maybe he's just an own rental. If the plan is to move him at all, it's better to do it now.
Buyer market won't be the same with so many teams exhausting their assets and the ones with picks to trade won't be desirable destinations or higher than 15th in a worse draft pool.

Mar. 12, 2023 at 7:05 p.m.

#18

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 16,187

Likes: 7,204

Quoting: ricochetii

Yeah, if the offer gets lower it just means Montreal is out and the Jets trade PLD elsewhere.

I don't think they'll use PLD as an own rental, he's just to valuable a piece to do that with. What they might do though is look for a more "now" trade as opposed to futures, if they real think they can be competitive with this core for one more run. Right now it doesn't look like they can be playoff competitive with this core, but then Jets management might think they can be.

That's where it gets tricky, almost everyone has been figuring on a pure futures deals as that's where the Jets would probably get the best value, but they may want roster players.

If they go the roster player route, I think Montreal is out again as the only desirable current roster players they have are ones they don't want to trade.

Mar. 12, 2023 at 7:23 p.m.

#19

ricochetii

Thread Starter

Go Habs Go

Joined: Mar. 2017

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Quoting: Windjammer

I'd have to think about that one, but the only one that comes to mind is JT Miller. Otherwise you're probably looking at older players without movement clauses that are signed for term already.
Younger teams with worthwhile considerations are attached to their own players and players with term and protection don't normally seem to want to go to Winnipeg. Might be tough to find the match you're looking for.

In the meantime, there's Perfetti, Beck, and assets you can use to flip for a player (Schmaltz perhaps) where the other team wouldn't be interested in Dubious.

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Mar. 12, 2023 at 7:36 p.m.

#20

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 16,187

Likes: 7,204

Quoting: ricochetii

Yup, that is the rub. It's really hard to say who could be available. Although after this year's Stanley Cup is presented there will most likely be at least 3 or 4 teams that are disappointed that it wasn't them and players that we think aren't available now may become available then, due to that disappointment.

I don't have a problem moving any Jet as there is clearly something wrong with this core in that they can only hold together playing a cohesive system for a half season or so before going on their merry individualistic ways causing a collapse. They just need to make sure to make good value futures trades or actual hockey trades to fill holes.

ricochetii liked this.

Mar. 12, 2023 at 9:21 p.m.

#21

CFMan

Number 1 Kahun Fan

Joined: Apr. 2017

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In terms of picks thats more than fair for Murphy. Hawks still decline just based on what Mailloux has done, and would signal that the Hawks org hasnt changed at all.

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Mar. 12, 2023 at 10:02 p.m.

#22

ricochetii

Thread Starter

Go Habs Go

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 10,667

Likes: 4,092

Quoting: CFMan

In terms of picks thats more than fair for Murphy. Hawks still decline just based on what Mailloux has done, and would signal that the Hawks org hasnt changed at all.

Noted. Simple just to remove Mailloux from the deal.

Mar. 13, 2023 at 7:28 p.m.

#23

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 12,600

Likes: 3,357

Quoting: Campabee

LMAO, Habs aren't trading 2 1sts + top 50 prospect in the league for a guy we can OS for a 1st and 3rd (if he agrees to it) or wait 1 year and sign without giving up anything.

You think 6.3 million gets dubois????????

Mar. 13, 2023 at 7:31 p.m.

#24

Campabee

Joined: Nov. 2018

Posts: 15,664

Likes: 6,513

Quoting: dgibb10

You think 6.3 million gets dubois????????

Refer to Howie's comments in this thread. He says anything is possible therefore yes PLD agrees to a 6.3 mil 1 year deal with the Habs

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/692137?post_id=3942856

Mar. 13, 2023 at 7:44 p.m.

#25

ricochetii

Thread Starter

Go Habs Go

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 10,667

Likes: 4,092

Quoting: dgibb10

You think 6.3 million gets dubois????????

No. They think he agrees to an offer sheet which forces Winnipeg to either give him up now or walk him to free agency.
He'll get his money as a UFA.

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