The point where Ottawa should not match an offer sheet

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: sensonfire

Team: 2023-24 Ottawa Senators

Initial Creation Date: Mar. 22, 2023

Published: Mar. 22, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

IMO, the main factor that should decide whether a team should match or not match an offer sheet is draft pick compensation.

Each team here only serves as an illustrative example to prove my point.

Keep in mind that Shane Pinto and Jacob Bernard Docker are not eligible for offersheets due to their special status as restricted free agents.

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
DeBrincat, Alex	1	$8,402,976
Brännström, Erik	1	$2,100,743
Sokolov, Egor	1	$2,100,743

Trades

OTT

2024 1st round pick (DET)
2024 2nd round pick (DET)
2024 3rd round pick (DET)
2025 1st round pick (DET)

DET

DeBrincat, Alex

Additional Details:

Ottawa spent a first, a second and a third to acquire Alex DeBrincat.

DeBrincat needs to be offersheeted with an AAV greater than 8.403 million for Ottawa to receive more than a first, a second and a third in compensation.

That means the point where Ottawa should not match an offer-sheet on DeBrincat is one with an AAV of at least 8.403 million.

In that case, Ottawa would receive at least two firsts instead of just one.

Along with the second and third round picks.

OTT

2024 2nd round pick (LAK)

LAK

Brännström, Erik

Additional Details:

IMO, Erik Brannstrom's and Yegor Sokolov's trade value is a second round pick each.

IMO, any extension that involves paying Brannstrom or Sokolov over 2 million per year is too much money.

That means the benchmark for a successful offersheet on Brannstrom and Sokolov is over 2.1 million with a draft pick compensation consisting of a 2nd round pick.

OTT

2024 2nd round pick (ARI)

ARI

Sokolov, Egor

OTT

These are all the RFAs where any offer-sheet consisting of any draft pick compensation whatsoever will go unmatched.

Thank you for reading my post.

ARI

Aspirot, Jonathan [RFA Rights]
Ferguson, Dylan [RFA Rights]
Gambrell, Dylan [RFA Rights]
Gauthier, Julien [RFA Rights]
Larsson, Jacob [RFA Rights]
Lodin, Viktor [RFA Rights]
Mandolese, Kevin [RFA Rights]

Buyouts

Bobby Ryan: $1,833,333
Colin White: $875,000
Michael Del Zotto: $750,000

Retained Salary Transactions

Matt Murray: $1,562,500 (25%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
15	$82,500,000	$68,212,380	$0	$1,850,000	$14,287,620

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Tkachuk, Brady $8,205,714$8,205,714 LW UFA - 5	Norris, Joshua $7,950,000$7,950,000 C UFA - 7	Batherson, Drake $4,975,000$4,975,000 RW, LW UFA - 4
Greig, Ridly $863,333$863,333 C, LW RFA - 2	Stützle, Tim $8,350,000$8,350,000 C UFA - 8	Giroux, Claude $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, C NMC UFA - 2
Kelly, Parker $762,500$762,500 LW RFA - 1		Joseph, Mathieu $2,950,000$2,950,000 LW, RW UFA - 3
	Kastelic, Mark $835,000$835,000 C, RW RFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Chychrun, Jakob $4,600,000$4,600,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 2	Zub, Artem $4,600,000$4,600,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 4	Forsberg, Anton $2,750,000$2,750,000 G UFA - 2
Chabot, Thomas $8,000,000$8,000,000 LD UFA - 5		Søgaard, Mads $925,000$925,000 G RFA - 1
Sanderson, Jake $925,000$925,000 ($1,850,000$2M) LD UFA - 1

Mar. 22, 2023 at 12:46 p.m.

Jfstompers

Pop Pop

Joined: Feb. 2018

Posts: 14,815

Likes: 8,370

Well yeah but idk who's gonna offer sheet him this much because it isn't detroit.

LeonardoNoCardio and JoeROFLCOPTER liked this.

Mar. 22, 2023 at 12:47 p.m.

Lancebmx

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 10,968

Likes: 8,530

You are welcome

Mar. 22, 2023 at 12:50 p.m.

Hammerwise

Joined: Aug. 2018

Posts: 6,456

Likes: 2,285

I dont know if Brannstrom gets a 2nd. Especially a high in the round one.

He's had cups of NHL coffee for 5 yrs and while he might play 70 games this year, he'll be Going into his 6th yrs in the pros, I'm just not sure his upside has been seen yet.

LeonardoNoCardio liked this.

Mar. 22, 2023 at 12:51 p.m.

Spaceman

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 1,836

Likes: 865

No team will ever offer sheet him and have to give up 2 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd. So don't worry about having to accept such an offer.

LeonardoNoCardio and JoeROFLCOPTER liked this.

Mar. 22, 2023 at 12:52 p.m.

NorthernLeafsFan05

Amirov Forever

Joined: Mar. 2022

Posts: 6,724

Likes: 6,172

Egor Sokolov has played 8 NHL games and has 0 NHL points. I know his AHL results are decent, but in what world does he fetch a second round pick??

LeonardoNoCardio liked this.

Mar. 22, 2023 at 12:53 p.m.

MoSeider53

Future Norris guy

Joined: Aug. 2022

Posts: 16,193

Likes: 8,915

Yzerman is like Holland he doesn't do offer sheets. Yzerman didn't become one of the best GMs in the league. By pissing off other GMs at the same time.

JoeROFLCOPTER liked this.

Mar. 22, 2023 at 1:10 p.m.

LeonardoNoCardio

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 415

Likes: 137

Yeah...Rebuilding teams are not doing that. Ottawa traded for Debrincat when he had just scored 41 goals. He is on pace for 24g and 64p this season. His value can't be higher now than it was a year ago, right?

This is what Debrincat is without Patrick Kane? Not really a player you would want to overpay for.

JoeROFLCOPTER liked this.

Mar. 22, 2023 at 1:10 p.m.

JoeROFLCOPTER

Joe

Joined: Nov. 2022

Posts: 7,745

Likes: 5,638

Man lmfao I can't imagine DeBrincat fetching more than what was paid for him in
A) A year where he's recessed on a better team
B) A much deeper and better draft pool
Either you guys will have to bite the bullet and resign him for the 9x7 he'll want or you'll have to trade him for less than you paid.

Mar. 22, 2023 at 1:12 p.m.

JoeROFLCOPTER

Joe

Joined: Nov. 2022

Posts: 7,745

Likes: 5,638

Quoting: LeonardoNoCardio

I would be astonished if he fetches more than a 1st rounder (if he gets traded)

Kyriakos_Grizzly and LeonardoNoCardio liked this.

Mar. 22, 2023 at 1:15 p.m.

#10

tkecanuck341

Joined: May 2016

Posts: 14,796

Likes: 6,239

DeBrincat's qualifying offer is for $9M. If the Sens don't offer him at least that much, he'll be a UFA before he ever gets to the point where offer sheets can be signed.

Mar. 22, 2023 at 1:17 p.m.

#11

LeonardoNoCardio

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 415

Likes: 137

Quoting: Hammerwise

Indeed. Kravtsov, Kaut, Välimäki, Tolvanen, Kostin, Timmins have all either been on the waivers or traded for pennies. Like why would these guys be worth a 2nd round pick Huh?

Mar. 22, 2023 at 1:38 p.m.

#12

TkachukNorris79

Joined: Jan. 2018

Posts: 1,256

Likes: 377

Quoting: Hammerwise

This is a fair opinion from someone who likely hasn't seen much of him this year and only looks at stats. He's actually been very good this year, I would be pretty disappointed if Ottawa moved him. Everyone who plays with him is better with him than without. I don't think a 2nd for him would be crazy but it would be a late 2nd from a contender. And I promise you he would be worth it.

sensonfire liked this.

Mar. 22, 2023 at 2:56 p.m.

#13

LeonardoNoCardio

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 415

Likes: 137

Quoting: JoeROFLCOPTER

I would be astonished if he fetches more than a 1st rounder (if he gets traded)

So would i. There are two teams that could maybe offer sheet Debrincat IMO: Hurricanes and Kraken, but that's it. Both teams have the Cap space and need of a goals scorer. But those picks would be much lower than Detroits 1sts. Senators are in a tough situation soon: Both Sanderson and Chychrun need new contracts, and it won't be cheap. Number one goalie? They cannot overpay Debrincat or it's gonna be tough to keep good depth on the team.

Mar. 22, 2023 at 3:03 p.m.

#14

sensonfire

Thread Starter

sensonfire

Joined: Feb. 2021

Posts: 12,055

Likes: 4,535

Quoting: Jfstompers

Well yeah but idk who's gonna offer sheet him this much because it isn't detroit.

Quoting: Lancebmx

You are welcome

Quoting: HockeyIsMyPassion61

Yzerman is like Holland he doesn't do offer sheets. Yzerman didn't become one of the best GMs in the league. By pissing off other GMs at the same time.

Quoting: LeonardoNoCardio

You all missed the part where I say, "Each team here only serves as an illustrative example to prove my point".

Mar. 22, 2023 at 3:04 p.m.

#15

Lancebmx

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 10,968

Likes: 8,530

Quoting: sensonfire

You all missed the part where I say, "Each team here only serves as an illustrative example to prove my point".

No I did not miss that. I said you are welcome, you said thanks

Mar. 22, 2023 at 3:06 p.m.

#16

sensonfire

Thread Starter

sensonfire

Joined: Feb. 2021

Posts: 12,055

Likes: 4,535

Quoting: Lancebmx

No I did not miss that. I said you are welcome, you said thanks

I thought you were being sarcastic.

Mar. 22, 2023 at 3:07 p.m.

#17

Lancebmx

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 10,968

Likes: 8,530

Quoting: sensonfire

I thought you were being sarcastic.

No man, just being polite, I actually read the whole post lol. I also agree.

sensonfire liked this.

Mar. 22, 2023 at 3:09 p.m.

#18

LeonardoNoCardio

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 415

Likes: 137

Quoting: sensonfire

You all missed the part where I say, "Each team here only serves as an illustrative example to prove my point".

My bad. But if the Hurricanes did this, would you still accept it? Those picks are late 1sts.

sensonfire liked this.

Mar. 22, 2023 at 3:17 p.m.

#19

Xspyrit

Joined: Jul. 2016

Posts: 10,515

Likes: 3,728

Quoting: Hammerwise

Brannstrom has been one of Ottawa's best players relatively to the role he played. He has been excellent, has some of the best defensive metrics in the league

sensonfire liked this.

Mar. 22, 2023 at 3:18 p.m.

#20

sensonfire

Thread Starter

sensonfire

Joined: Feb. 2021

Posts: 12,055

Likes: 4,535

Quoting: LeonardoNoCardio

My bad. But if the Hurricanes did this, would you still accept it? Those picks are late 1sts.

Yes, I would.

And I would treat the trade with Chicago as a sunk cost or water under the bridge.

And say to myself that the value of first round picks vary from draft to draft and that two first round picks are better than one.

Kyriakos_Grizzly liked this.

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