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Toronto Maple Leafs 2022 2023 Season Discussion (Part 5)

Apr. 24, 2023 at 2:09 a.m.
#1151
aadoyle
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Agree with Keefe here, dont want the media to just rail on him. Let him sit back as the last thing he needs is for them to ruin his confidence
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Apr. 24, 2023 at 9:01 a.m.
#1152
Ritzy
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Quoting: aadoyle




Agree with Keefe here, dont want the media to just rail on him. Let him sit back as the last thing he needs is for them to ruin his confidence


Sammy had just stolen Toronto a win after a bit of a shaky start, makes total sense to expose him to the media so they can ask him dumb irrelevant questions.
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Apr. 24, 2023 at 9:12 a.m.
#1153
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It's only 9am and I'm already nervous.
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Apr. 24, 2023 at 9:23 a.m.
#1154
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Quoting: Ritzy
It's only 9am and I'm already nervous.


The leafs (and their failures) have turned me into a logical determinist and ive found that to help calm the nerves greatly although not entirely
Apr. 24, 2023 at 10:05 a.m.
#1155
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Quoting: Ritzy
It's only 9am and I'm already nervous.


Auston 2 goals. Sammy higher sv% than Vasi. Knies 1st goal, Zona boys gonna go crazy. Close game win in regulation to go up 3-1. Book it. (knock on wood)
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Apr. 24, 2023 at 10:12 a.m.
#1156
BigDaddyOvech
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Quoting: leafs101
Auston 2 goals. Sammy higher sv% than Vasi. Knies 1st goal, Zona boys gonna go crazy. Close game win in regulation to go up 3-1. Book it. (knock on wood)


I like this energy. I also think Knies gets his first tonight. As much disappointment as the Leafs have served us over past years, I've gotten over being nervous. Let's just enjoy the ride, be way more fun if they win the series if we stay behind them 100%!
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Apr. 24, 2023 at 10:13 a.m.
#1157
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Quoting: BigDaddyOvech
I like this energy. I also think Knies gets his first tonight. As much disappointment as the Leafs have served us over past years, I've gotten over being nervous. Let's just enjoy the ride, be way more fun if they win the series if we stay behind them 100%!


yea f being nervous, what's the worst that can happen they lose? Only seen that what, 6 consecutive years? Nothing new. Sad, disappointing, but nothing new.
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Apr. 24, 2023 at 11:34 a.m.
#1158
MatthewsFan
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Quoting: BigDaddyOvech
I like this energy. I also think Knies gets his first tonight. As much disappointment as the Leafs have served us over past years, I've gotten over being nervous. Let's just enjoy the ride, be way more fun if they win the series if we stay behind them 100%!


This
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Apr. 24, 2023 at 12:20 p.m.
#1159
MatthewsFan
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Good thread here




I’ve never seen TOR dumb the puck in as much as they did in Game3. They lost a ton of puck battles, had next to zero cycle game, and no sustained pressure. They could barely break the puck out of their own zone. For a team that loves possession hockey, the lack of controlled entries was confusing. The entry and exit strategy needs to change for Game 4. I totally get targeting their weak backend (Bogosian, Perbix, Raddysh) but it didn’t work, that NEEDS to change.

Pls Keefe, Mathews Nylander and Tavares Marner

They laid an absolute egg last year in Game 4


Looked bad in Game One, bad in Game 3 (very lucky to come away with a win). I really hope they come out with that killer instinct tonight, really take a hold of this series

Go Leafs Go
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Apr. 24, 2023 at 12:26 p.m.
#1160
Ritzy
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
Good thread here




I’ve never seen TOR dumb the puck in as much as they did in Game3. They lost a ton of puck battles, had next to zero cycle game, and no sustained pressure. They could barely break the puck out of their own zone. For a team that loves possession hockey, the lack of controlled entries was confusing. The entry and exit strategy needs to change for Game 4. I totally get targeting their weak backend (Bogosian, Perbix, Raddysh) but it didn’t work, that NEEDS to change.

Pls Keefe, Mathews Nylander and Tavares Marner

They laid an absolute egg last year in Game 4


Looked bad in Game One, bad in Game 3 (very lucky to come away with a win). I really hope they come out with that killer instinct tonight, really take a hold of this series

Go Leafs Go


Maroon scoring tonight would be a disaster for the mental game. Can't let this plug get any sort of momentum.
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Apr. 24, 2023 at 12:33 p.m.
#1161
MatthewsFan
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Quoting: Ritzy
Maroon scoring tonight would be a disaster for the mental game. Can't let this plug get any sort of momentum.


TBL 4th line is crushing us




I don’t really understand the love of ours.
Apr. 24, 2023 at 12:44 p.m.
#1162
Ritzy
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
TBL 4th line is crushing us




I don’t really understand the love of ours.


I would love to know how this fancy stat is calculated.

That line has 2 goals at 5 on 5 all series, the rest of Perry's points have either come with other linemates or on the powerplay.

"Expecting" to score 90% of the time at 5 on 5 and then only scoring twice in three games doesn't sound all that impressive.
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Apr. 24, 2023 at 1:02 p.m.
#1163
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Quoting: Ritzy
I would love to know how this fancy stat is calculated.

That line has 2 goals at 5 on 5 all series, the rest of Perry's points have either come with other linemates or on the powerplay.

"Expecting" to score 90% of the time at 5 on 5 and then only scoring twice in three games doesn't sound all that impressive.


xGF% is simply a ratio of a teams xGF in comparison to the opposition. Anything over 50% indicates a team had more quality shots (possession) than the opposition, for a game, a period, etc.

Also all of PEB, Perry, and Maroon have positive underlying numbers: CF% (all above 50), SCF%(all above 50). Conversely, ZAR Kampf Lafferty: CF% (all below 41), SCF% (all below 34) they are generating nothing.
Apr. 24, 2023 at 1:34 p.m.
#1164
Ritzy
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
xGF% is simply a ratio of a teams xGF in comparison to the opposition. Anything over 50% indicates a team had more quality shots (possession) than the opposition, for a game, a period, etc.

Also all of PEB, Perry, and Maroon have positive underlying numbers: CF% (all above 50), SCF%(all above 50). Conversely, ZAR Kampf Lafferty: CF% (all below 41), SCF% (all below 34) they are generating nothing.


I personally don't put too much stock in the "expected" stats, but that's not to say they don't have merit.

If you're being put on a pedestal based on a high % of whatever expected stat, but your real stats don't back that up, are you really producing?

Just one man's opinion, I'm sure there is still plenty of debate amongst the advanced stat community versus the old eye test way of analyzing.
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Apr. 24, 2023 at 1:42 p.m.
#1165
MatthewsFan
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Quoting: Ritzy
I personally don't put too much stock in the "expected" stats, but that's not to say they don't have merit.

If you're being put on a pedestal based on a high % of whatever expected stat, but your real stats don't back that up, are you really producing?

Just one man's opinion, I'm sure there is still plenty of debate amongst the advanced stat community versus the old eye test way of analyzing.


Your not wrong at all, I’m just tired of TBL bottom 6 guys always winning the battle against TOR. I’ve said many times I’ll take TOR top 6 against anyone, it’s the bottom guys who get out performed.

I’m very thankful to have Knies and O’Reilly down there, hopefully they can turn the tide
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Apr. 24, 2023 at 2:11 p.m.
#1166
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Quoting: leafs101
yea f being nervous, what's the worst that can happen they lose? Only seen that what, 6 consecutive years? Nothing new. Sad, disappointing, but nothing new.


Just 6 huh... LoL I'm not pulling the 'since 1967" card because I'm not THAT old.. but.. okay I'm quitting this particular discussion while I'm ahead 😁
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Apr. 24, 2023 at 3:42 p.m.
#1167
leafs101
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Quoting: oneX
Just 6 huh... LoL I'm not pulling the 'since 1967" card because I'm not THAT old.. but.. okay I'm quitting this particular discussion while I'm ahead 😁


i was more talking 1st round exits in the Matthews/Marner era but yes, suppose we can trace that back a ways ...
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Apr. 24, 2023 at 4:02 p.m.
#1168
leafs101
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Gimme these lines:

Kerfoot - Matthews - Nylander
Jarnkrok - JT - Marner
Knies - ROR - Acciari
ZAR - Kampf - Lafferty
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Apr. 24, 2023 at 4:57 p.m.
#1169
Ritzy
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Quoting: leafs101
Gimme these lines:

Kerfoot - Matthews - Nylander
Jarnkrok - JT - Marner
Knies - ROR - Acciari
ZAR - Kampf - Lafferty


This fan base would riot if Kerfoot was playing on the top line.

They're already teetering with him playing in the top 6.
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Apr. 24, 2023 at 5:03 p.m.
#1170
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Quoting: Ritzy
This fan base would riot if Kerfoot was playing on the top line.

They're already teetering with him playing in the top 6.


I think the whole "top line" jargon is so over played, he'd still be only the 7th highest F in ice time (34, 16, 88, 91, 90, 23, 19 all before him)
Apr. 24, 2023 at 5:03 p.m.
#1171
Random2152
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Quoting: Ritzy
This fan base would riot if Kerfoot was playing on the top line.

They're already teetering with him playing in the top 6.


The moment that the front office and coaching staff care about what the fans think in terms of lineup or how the team should be run, is when they need to all be fired
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Apr. 24, 2023 at 5:14 p.m.
#1172
Ritzy
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Quoting: Random2152
The moment that the front office and coaching staff care about what the fans think in terms of lineup or how the team should be run, is when they need to all be fired


I never said they would be influenced on what the fans think, just stating the obvious.
Apr. 24, 2023 at 5:32 p.m.
#1173
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Quoting: leafs101
Gimme these lines:

Kerfoot - Matthews - Nylander
Jarnkrok - JT - Marner
Knies - ROR - Acciari
ZAR - Kampf - Lafferty


I'm okay with these lines. I'm still wanting Jarnkrok and Matthews on the first line just because Jarnkrok seems deceptively good with Matthews. Add Nylander to that mix and I think that line is quite deadly.
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Apr. 24, 2023 at 5:43 p.m.
#1174
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Quoting: oneX
I'm okay with these lines. I'm still wanting Jarnkrok and Matthews on the first line just because Jarnkrok seems deceptively good with Matthews. Add Nylander to that mix and I think that line is quite deadly.


agree but don't like not having an outside shooter on the 2nd line. Matthews and Willy on a line gives you two dual threats from anywhere and I know Marner can shoot it but I'd prefer to see him have two outlets that can score in different ways. I wrestled with that one a lot though.
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Apr. 24, 2023 at 6:21 p.m.
#1175
NorthernLeafsFan05
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