Quoting: dannibalcorpse
Using goals scored to value Taylor Hall kinda misses the point about what type of player he is - and using an arbitrary benchmark like this is nearly worthless when you remember that since his MVP season he's had one season where he was hurt, one season cut short by COVID, one season only 56 games long in the bubble, and then he missed a few weeks this year with an injury that I'm sure Boston wasn't rushing him back from. But when you average out his numbers since then over a full 82 game season, he winds up averaging out to a 21-41-62 line every 82 GP. If you want to argue that a 60 point guy *isn't* a second liner, go for it, I guess, but you're gonna look extremely wrong.
Metrics back up his contract, FWIW - he drives play at a strong rate and, more importantly, helps suppress chances when he's on the ice at a near-elite level. GSVA pegs him as a clear top-6 player who actually exceeds the value
His last 5 years:
33gp, 11g, 26a, 37pts
65gp, 16g, 26a, 42pts
53gp, 10g, 23a, 33pts
81gp, 20g, 41a, 61pts
60gp, 16g, 20a, 36pts
His possession numbers are good but if he's not scoring or helping others score, it doesn't matter. He is paid to drive scoring, hence why he starts 70% in offensive zone. You can also extrapolate to 82 game seasons if you'd like but that's not how it works in the real world.
He is paid roughly 1MM for every 7 points.
Now let's compare him to other players in his price range (over 5 years):
Bryan Rust: 12 points per 1MM
Nazem Kadri: 10.5 points per 1MM
Brandon Saad: 5 points per 1MM
Max Pat: 7 points per 1MM
Brad Marchand: 13 points per 1MM
Jon Marchessault: 11 points per 1MM
How about top 6 guys who took a pay cut recently to roughly 6MM...
Evgeny Malkin: 14 points per 1MM
Claude Grioux: 13 points per 1MM
Based on his scoring and cost, it seems to me he is closest to Patches who was literally given away for nothing from Vegas as a salary dump.
I'm sorry but Hall is not an elite player. If you want to know how everyone outside of Boston feels about Hall do this little trick.
1.) Get a mirror
2.) Looking down, think of Jeff Petry and his contract
3.) Look at mirror
The face your making is how we think about Hall.
But hey, you can like Hall all you want. I wouldn't want him within 100 miles of any roster I like.