What the last two seasons have shown me is that we need hungrier guys in the leadership group and the top 6 specifically. To me, this means one or more of Panarin, Zibanejad, or frankly Fox need to go. That may sound crazy but here's a quote from Fox today: "The games I played well, I played well. I'd say a little inconsistent for my liking. Obviously, game 7, I wish I could have been better. You're not going to play your best every game." Yikes. So let's assume Drury sees this problem and is willing to take some risk to open up space at the top of the roster for new blood. What can he do? Fox would be easiest (no NTC) but the most extreme and hardest to replace. Same story with replacing Zibanejad - hard to find a legit 1C who plays PP and PK and shuts down the opposing team's top players. That leaves Panarin, as I show below. But bear in mind this kind of roster reset could be achieved with those other two players as an alternative.
A couple caveats: don't get hung up on the exact draft capital, I can imagine more or less being added to either side of any trade. Point is can we get it done with players like this under the cap? And I definitely see how this specific configuration might not fit under an $83.5MM cap with Barzal, but you can imagine a different permutation with a different player of similar quality coming back $2-3MM lower AAV making it work.
**TRADES**
- Panarin for Barzal + Picks
I am confident Panarin has plenty of trade value at his current cap hit as a consistent 90+ point player. The issue is obviously his NMC. As unimaginable as a NYR-NYI trade may seem, it's happened before. NYI offered above his current AAV during his UFA process, why wouldn't they still want him? He's performed at or above expectations since signing. It's also a frontloaded contract so they get some cash benefit. For Panarin, I imagine he wouldn't consider waiving for teams outside the NYC area, and might need some extra motivation. New coach and some tough words from Drury might make him motivated for a change of scenery.
Barzal is an interesting case, signed the 8x9.5 contract in October. Since then NYI added Horvat, then barely squeaked into the playoffs and had a first round out. Barzal's stats don't quite support his cap hit: last 6 years points totals 85, 62, 60, 45, 59, 51 (vs. 82, 87, 95, 58, 96, 92 for Panarin). So I think it's fair to say NYI would be the side adding draft capital to make it happen.
- Lafreniere + Goodrow + Picks for Caufield
Lafreniere seems like the worst offender of the "kids" in terms of work ethic on/off ice, consistency, and development. My armchair analysis is he can't handle NYC. Clubbing with Sammy Blais and Margot Robbie is not good for a 21 year old who needs to step up. See how his buddy Sammy immediately started scoring again when he went back to St. Louis. Lafreniere may not have the same value he did on draft day, but still worth more than your average 1st round pick. And where would he be wanted more than Montreal who was hoping to get him as their hometown kid in that year's lottery.
Montreal would want Goodrow for the same reasons as other teams: get some cup experience and grit in a locker room full of younger players. He can swing up and down their lineup as their prospects develop. They'll place positive value on him.
Caufield is certainly a huge prize and a fantastic player, but with the season-ending surgery and an extension needed, presents some risk to Montreal. And you know how much Drury likes his USNTDP kids. I think an extra 1st and 2nd get this trade done.
NYR extend Caufield 7x7.5
**CONTRACTS**
- Miller 2x3.25: I think his performance in 2nd half and playoffs could keep AAV down.
- Motte 2x1: He sounded very optimistic about staying with NYR on break up day, and probably learned his lesson last year that testing free agency and going with 1yr deals isn't getting him where he wants to be. Might take stability and stop chasing AAV similar to Vesey.
- Evan Rodrigues 2x2.35: Need to add a flexible middle-6 type with grit and scoring. Rodrigues is a great option. If we end up having the cap space, Max Domi would be even better. Other options like Killorn, O'Reilly, Compher, Bunting, Bertuzzi, Bjugstad, Fast, Perry all options depending on cap situation.
**OVERALL**
Some features of this strategy:
- PP1 is totally revamped with two new world-class players
- Trochek to the third line which becomes a true grinder/pest line with Rodrigues and Othmann. Imagine the spark they could provide, with plenty of scoring upside
- Lots more ice for Chytil and Kakko, who are becoming possession monsters, with a new linemate with proven PPG scoring ability and a bit more mustard (at least compared to Panarin)
- D is stable, I think we are on a good improvement slope there
- Lots of ice for prospects like Cuylle and Othmann, however, if they can't hang well enough to keep us in the hunt through the deadline we'll need to find some decent players on league min contracts. We've been pretty successful finding 1-2 of those per season the last few seasons though. Backup G might be harder.
Take away the picks in the Islander trade and your still ignoring the age difference between the two players, you'd probably end up giving up a more than just Panarin for Barzal
It is an interesting idea though, considering the moves the Islanders have made
ohmyjlord, Caufield and ricochetii liked this.
Reply
Othmann,
CapFriendly
CapFriendly