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Fantilli Carlson worth a top 4 LHS Dman

Created by: DopeGM
Team: 2023-24 Montreal Canadiens
Initial Creation Date: May 20, 2023
Published: May 20, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Bit of a long term logjam at LHS D… quite the position to be in to be able to afford to trade one. I would try to take a big swing at #2 or #3. If one of those teams likes Mitchkov, it would be expensive but possible.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
7$7,500,000
2$850,000
2$850,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Carlsson, Leo
3$950,000
Trades
MTL
  1. 2023 1st round pick (CBJ)
  2. 2023 3rd round pick (CBJ)
CBJ
  1. Guhle, Kaiden
  2. 2023 1st round pick (MTL)
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
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Logo of the VGK
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the CGY
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
2024
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Logo of the COL
Logo of the MTL
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Logo of the SJS
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Logo of the EDM
2025
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
25$83,500,000$69,245,833$1,170,000$4,332,500$14,254,167
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$7,500,000$7,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 8
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$7,875,000$7,875,000
C
UFA - 7
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$5,500,000$5,500,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$850,000$850,000
LW, RW
RFA - 2
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$3,362,500$3,362,500
C, RW
RFA - 3
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$950,000$950,000 (Performance Bonus$3,500,000$4M)
RW, LW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$4,500,000$4,500,000
LW
UFA - 1
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$4,450,000$4,450,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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$6,500,000$6,500,000
RW, LW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 4
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$1,100,000$1,100,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
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$1,700,000$1,700,000
C
UFA - 2
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$3,400,000$3,400,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$897,500$897,500 (Performance Bonus$557,500$558K)
RW, LW
RFA - 2
Carlsson, Leo
$950,000$950,000
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$850,000$850,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$4,875,000$4,875,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$3,500,000$3,500,000
RD
UFA - 2
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$1,925,000$1,925,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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$828,333$828,333
LD/RD
RFA - 1
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$766,667$766,667
RD
UFA - 2
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$1,000,000$1,000,000
G
UFA - 1
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$875,000$875,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$275,000$275K)
RD
RFA - 1
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$1,400,000$1,400,000
LD/RD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$762,500$762,500
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$10,500,000$10,500,000
G
NMC
UFA - 3

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May 20, 2023 at 10:38 a.m.
#1
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Very interesting trade, but I find it unlikely Columbus passes on a center whether it's Fantilli or Carlsson. Unfortunately, San Jose doesn't need left handed d men. So even in the unlikely event (in my mind) that Carlsson or Fantilli were to somehow drop to San Jose, Montreal's surplus doesn't interest them I don't think. Gonna be really hard to move up in the draft if you're in the top 5 or so this year, top 10 even
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May 20, 2023 at 10:40 a.m.
#2
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Listen, I'm a Habs fan, and I'm going to be honest and not overly dramatic. BUT....
If another MTL GM trades away their best future LD again, on a risky trade, the GM deserves to be fired. Remember Gomez? Remember Drouin?
Just please stop it, and understand how valuable Guhle is
ANNNNDDD to make this trade to move up 2 spots??!!!!??!?!?!?! honestly its just a stupid idea. sry
May 20, 2023 at 10:53 a.m.
#3
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Matheson the current stud. Hutson the future. Looks like only one spot for Guhle and Wifi. I personally would trade Guhle. But you would probably get more by moving Wifi and it makes sense that Guhle would be better during their cup window.
May 20, 2023 at 10:55 a.m.
#4
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Quoting: Steven_Stamkos
Very interesting trade, but I find it unlikely Columbus passes on a center whether it's Fantilli or Carlsson. Unfortunately, San Jose doesn't need left handed d men. So even in the unlikely event (in my mind) that Carlsson or Fantilli were to somehow drop to San Jose, Montreal's surplus doesn't interest them I don't think. Gonna be really hard to move up in the draft if you're in the top 5 or so this year, top 10 even


Yeah I agree. Super unlikely. Jarmo would have to love Mitchkov. I had a more complicated trade in mind where CLB gets to 2, MTL to 3 and Anaheim packs major assets to go from 2 to 5. I could see Verbeek loving Mitchkov but now I’m really in dreaming territory.
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May 20, 2023 at 11:04 a.m.
#5
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Quoting: DopeGM
Yeah I agree. Super unlikely. Jarmo would have to love Mitchkov. I had a more complicated trade in mind where CLB gets to 2, MTL to 3 and Anaheim packs major assets to go from 2 to 5. I could see Verbeek loving Mitchkov but now I’m really in dreaming territory.


Verbeek is in a very interesting position also. Albeit less touted in each of their respective drafts, Anaheim looks to be in a mid 2000's Pittsburgh like position. Do they trade down or trade away their 2nd overall pick for a solid ransom? Do you pass up a chance at grabbing your 3rd big time center? I mean Zegras and McTavish looks to be a very promising 1-2 punch down the middle for many years to come. But Fantilli-Zegras-McTavish? Crosby-Malkin-Staal? With one of, if not the best defensive prospect pools in the league, does Verbeek look to add more young wingers to the mix? I mean you're taking a gamble either way, whether it's betting on Fantilli or Carlsson being as advertised, or getting more pieces in return and hoping those pan out. But anyhow, an embarrassment of riches is what you might call one of those good problems.
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May 20, 2023 at 11:09 a.m.
#6
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Horrendous trade for Columbus.
May 20, 2023 at 11:09 a.m.
#7
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Quoting: Steven_Stamkos
Verbeek is in a very interesting position also. Albeit less touted in each of their respective drafts, Anaheim looks to be in a mid 2000's Pittsburgh like position. Do they trade down or trade away their 2nd overall pick for a solid ransom? Do you pass up a chance at grabbing your 3rd big time center? I mean Zegras and McTavish looks to be a very promising 1-2 punch down the middle for many years to come. But Fantilli-Zegras-McTavish? Crosby-Malkin-Staal? With one of, if not the best defensive prospect pools in the league, does Verbeek look to add more young wingers to the mix? I mean you're taking a gamble either way, whether it's betting on Fantilli or Carlsson being as advertised, or getting more pieces in return and hoping those pan out. But anyhow, an embarrassment of riches is what you might call one of those good problems.


To me the Russian who's a year or two away makes the most sense for Anaheim, they've already got their 1-2 punch set down the middle and can afford to wait a couple years for Michkov, they're not competing in the next couple years.
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May 20, 2023 at 11:10 a.m.
#8
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Quoting: DopeGM
Matheson the current stud. Hutson the future. Looks like only one spot for Guhle and Wifi. I personally would trade Guhle. But you would probably get more by moving Wifi and it makes sense that Guhle would be better during their cup window.


Cup window?

What cup window
May 20, 2023 at 11:11 a.m.
#9
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I wouldn't do this trade. It is looking like a decent chance MTL can still draft Smith. Realistically, the difference between Smith and Carlsson will be minor, and definitely not worth a future first-pair D, and current #3 D
May 20, 2023 at 11:17 a.m.
#10
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Edited May 20, 2023 at 12:37 p.m.
Quoting: MisstheWhalers
To me the Russian who's a year or two away makes the most sense for Anaheim, they've already got their 1-2 punch set down the middle and can afford to wait a couple years for Michkov, they're not competing in the next couple years.


I'm not the most informed on the details of his situation, but I believe Michkov is under contract in the KHL until the end of the 2025-2026 season. He'll be 22 or 21 by then. Still extremely young obviously, surely more developed playing with men for 3 more seasons. I agree Anaheim can wait on him. San Jose too. You could make an argument for Columbus, but with Johnny it feels like they are more invested in today rather than tomorrow. They are still a really young team when it comes to a lot of their big pieces, but because they are lacking down the middle, it feels like they want something they can start working with as soon as next year. Michkov in Anaheim or San Jose makes the most sense. I've seen a lot of people moving him down to 5th or lower too. Having Smith and Benson ahead of him.
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May 20, 2023 at 12:07 p.m.
#11
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Columbus has two superior LD prospects in Mateychuk and Svozil who are both about a year away from the NHL. Why would they trade away the best chance for a franchise 1C—something they’ve never had—for something they already have two better of?
May 20, 2023 at 1:02 p.m.
#12
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Bedard, Fantilli are probably locked into 1/2.

And the difference between Carlsson, Smith, Michkov may be de minimus. If you were jumping from 12 to 3 maybe Guhle would be the difference. But not from #5.

In this year’s draft, there are probably more gains in moving back from 5th spot.
May 20, 2023 at 1:46 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: squashmaple
Columbus has two superior LD prospects in Mateychuk and Svozil who are both about a year away from the NHL. Why would they trade away the best chance for a franchise 1C—something they’ve never had—for something they already have two better of?


I didn’t want to lay out how I got to this thought; which is by Verbeek trading down twice and CLB moving up a spot because I believe Jarmo would vastly vastly prefer Fantilli to Carlsson even though us ACGMs believe they are too close to pay up for.

So if I’m Verbeek, I try to understand MTL’s price to move up from 5 to 2 and then call them back with a slightly altered trade for MTL to go from 5 to 3 instead.

So Verbeek adds assets to go from Fantilli to Mitchkov, CLB gets the future number 1 centre that fits perfectly with their culture, and MTL pays up to go from Smith, Mitchkov or a trade back scenario to land Carlsson… a can’t miss core forward at a time where they would love to lock in what they have.

Quoting: Caufield
I wouldn't do this trade. It is looking like a decent chance MTL can still draft Smith. Realistically, the difference between Smith and Carlsson will be minor, and definitely not worth a future first-pair D, and current #3 D




I get the Guhle love from Habs quarters and think Verbeek would take Wifi in the same deal instead. I liked Guhle a lot at the beginning of the season but heard he dropped off a bit as the season went along.
May 20, 2023 at 1:55 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: Caufield
I wouldn't do this trade. It is looking like a decent chance MTL can still draft Smith. Realistically, the difference between Smith and Carlsson will be minor, and definitely not worth a future first-pair D, and current #3 D


This is like saying the difference between Raantanen and Barzal is minor. You don’t want two small dynamic centres, although Suzuki isn’t undersized like Smith is.

When you are so close to designing the team, like Hughes is, I believe premium assets are the key as compared to total assets. I would trade one of Guhle, Wifi, Matheson or Hutson in a heartbeat if it meant I get to get into a premium talent like Carlsson from an elite but imperfect asset like Smith.

Premium is so critical at this point for Montreal that I would prioritize Mitchkov over Smith. MTL simply doesn’t need a Barzal. If Smith looked like the next Point in terms of compete, I would be happy to be wrong about labelling him imperfect / warty.
May 20, 2023 at 2:52 p.m.
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Quoting: DopeGM
This is like saying the difference between Raantanen and Barzal is minor. You don’t want two small dynamic centres, although Suzuki isn’t undersized like Smith is.

When you are so close to designing the team, like Hughes is, I believe premium assets are the key as compared to total assets. I would trade one of Guhle, Wifi, Matheson or Hutson in a heartbeat if it meant I get to get into a premium talent like Carlsson from an elite but imperfect asset like Smith.

Premium is so critical at this point for Montreal that I would prioritize Mitchkov over Smith. MTL simply doesn’t need a Barzal. If Smith looked like the next Point in terms of compete, I would be happy to be wrong about labelling him imperfect / warty.


The thing about Guhle is he is Shea Weber lite. Not quite Weber but pretty close. I think Carlsson doesn’t have Rantanen’s offensive potential while I see Smith having a better offensive touch than Barzal, plus MTL have Slaf, which imo, has a higher ceiling than Carlsson and is in the same idea as Rantanen. I wouldn’t trade a Weber like player to upgrade a bit on the defensive side of things in a Carlsson vs Smith
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May 20, 2023 at 2:58 p.m.
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Totally get this perspective. What about Matheson or Wifi ?
May 20, 2023 at 3:00 p.m.
#17
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Are Fantilli/Carlsson even a lock for the number 2-3 spot? Neither are Bedard. Overpayment

Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld
Horrendous trade for Columbus.


huh? Do you ever say anything with perspective?
May 20, 2023 at 3:55 p.m.
#18
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Quoting: DopeGM
Totally get this perspective. What about Matheson or Wifi ?


WiFi is definitely a possibility. Matheson is our top pair D right now and for the next 3-5 years so he probably stays.
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May 20, 2023 at 4:49 p.m.
#19
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Wifi is massively desirable right now. Big mobile tough and cheap cap hit. What a piece, if Hughes is willing to move him.
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