My favourite conspiracy theory i saw on twitter but ppl giving way too much credit there lmao



The idea that teams needed to reach the cap floor was always a misnomer. You overpay a UFA by a million or two. It aint diffcult. Look at Chicago and AA! Any teams that feel pressure to move money will be squeezed as we saw with the Canucks, Kings and now Preds.

The off-season is still young. Durzi wouldn't have been avaliable to us anyway, LA being rivals and all.

We're not opposed to moving capital to acquire players, but they have to be 1: young, and 2: the right fit.

I've never been a big Durzi fan, so this is addition by subtraction for LA as far as I'm concerned.

Considering ARI had nine 2nd Round picks in their stockpile, I think this was a good move. LA got fleeced, but when you're desperate to sell, that tends to happen.

Huge steal for AZ! Durzi is going to be a star dman! He is offensive and just a solid dman in general. Big steal for AZ!

Another reason to keep your own pick instead of one you've acquired from another team is offer sheets. You can only use your own picks as compensation for an offer sheet, and you can't present an offer sheet to a player unless you have all the picks you would need for the compensation, in case the other team doesn't match it (which is presumably what you're hoping). I don't know if Arizona will be offer-sheeting anybody this summer or next, but it's good to have that option.

If Dubois really wants out of Winnipeg, do you think he would sign an offer sheet knowing that Winnipeg could match it? The best option for him would probably be to go to arbitration. I don’t know if that would mean he’d need Winnipeg’s permission to negotiate with other teams before the arbitration hearing, but I suspect they would allow that, and if he reaches an agreement with one of them, that team can try to work out a trade with Winnipeg. If he doesn’t get any offers he likes, or if the teams can’t work out a trade, he can take whatever he gets in arbitration, suck it up and go back to Winnipeg for a year.
Then he can become a UFA and sign anywhere without having to worry about Winnipeg matching or the teams working out a trade.

WPG matching a one year offer sheet would forbid them to trade PLD away, brinhing him strait to UFA status without any risk of being overbid by another team this summer. As for arbitration, the team didnt file for it, can't happen.

People always overrate bottom pairing puck movers who put up 30+ points with soft competition. Call it the "Wideman is better than Ceci" conundrum.

Durzi is a bit more than a bottom pairing defenseman, but not by much. I suspect that the Kings sold high here, and that Arizona was the only team willing to give up a 2nd round pick because they need a player of Durzi's skillset who has a low real money salary.

Giving up a 2nd for Durzi would be questionable for almost every team, but you have to keep in mind that Arizona is an extreme budget team that is trying to compete. Their backend is completely bare. Durzi can play on one of the PP units. He only makes 2M in real money. It's a good fit.

They might get a 3rd or 4th round pick for him at the deadline. I don't think they will want to qualify him unless he is lights out, because he has a perfect case to get a large settlement that might come just under the walk away number based on his minutes, production, and how he will likely slot in as a top pairing defenseman on Arizona. On the Valimaki scale of increased roles, Durzi should be used like prime Chris Pronger and play 30 minutes a night....which is an obvious exaggeration but even ignoring that and only focusing on his resume with LAK, he would be a risky arbitration case. Perhaps they try to extend him now to a 1 or 2 year deal to cost control him.

LA did not get fleeced. They took advantage of Arizona's position to get a great return and sell high. Durzi will never be traded for more than he was traded for today. Montreal is still rebuilding, so this has a high chance of being a pick in the top end of the 2nd round.

I suspect Arizona looks at it like they can rent Durzi for a season or two, and then sell him at the TDL as a playoff rental to recoup something close to what they gave up. I don't think they will get a 2nd round pick, but they might get a 3rd.

Anytime the cap friendly poll is 96-3 I'd consider it a fleecing (clear W for ARI). Either that, or WASH and DAL. got absolutely fleeced for Sandin and Lundkvist, respectively. But, we never know for sure how things will play out. Maybe Durzi develops into a top pair D, or maybe he's already peaked or struggles to find his way with the Yotes.

I was assuming the offer sheet would be multi-year. I don’t think Dubois would be worried about Winnipeg matching a one-year offer sheet since he’s pretty much stuck with them for a year anyway if they don’t trade him.

So you’re thinking that a team would sign him to a 1-year offer sheet to make sure he goes to free agency next summer (at which time they could sign him with no compensation) and to prevent Winnipeg from trading him to somebody else in the meantime? If that’s what they’re trying to do, it could backfire on them because Winnipeg might not match the offer sheet, though as I’ll explain shortly, that might actually be a better outcome.

Assuming the offer sheet is in the $6,435,187 - $8,580,250 range, the compensation would be a 1st, a 2nd and a 3rd. That’s probably close to what Winnipeg would get if they traded him now, so if I was them, I think I’d take the compensation and let him go. Then the team acquiring him loses the draft picks and could also lose the player after a year.

That might not be a bad strategy though. They get him right away instead of having to wait a year, and they have a year to try to get him to sign an extension before he hits the open market. Worst case, if he won’t sign an extension, I think they can flip him at the deadline to try to get back some of the draft capital they lost. (I know a team matching an offer sheet can’t trade the player for a year, but I’m not aware of any such restrictions on the acquiring team if the offer sheet isn’t matched.)

The draft picks are unprotected, so this probably only makes sense for a team that’s confident they’ll be in the playoffs, but it could work. There are 10 teams who could do this, 3 of which were in the playoffs this past season (Carolina, Dallas and Seattle). Carolina might be a good fit, and this wouldn't be the first time they used a 1-year offer sheet, but I don't know how they feel about a guy who's asked to be traded from every NHL team he's played for. 16 teams could do it if they keep the offer under $6,435,187, but then I think there’s a better chance Winnipeg would match it, because the compensation goes down to a 1st and a 3rd. That would make him a pure 1-year rental for Winnipeg though, so I think it would depend on whether they still want to try to be a competitive team this season.

PLD made it clear he wouldn't sign with WPG. He would go on strike, exposing him to an offersheet this summer. Don't asssume it would be over $6.5M, PLD could agree to less for 1 year for a team he's willing to resign long term afterward.

Zero chance WPG would match any offersheet and "make him a pure 1-year rental", that would be terrible asset management to loose him for nothing after a reset year.

Since WPG would't match an offersheet, the only possible scenario is to trade him before July 1st.

There’s another window for team elected arbitration on July 5th but that won’t stop an offer sheet next week.