Edited Dec. 12, 2023 at 8:16 p.m.
Quoting: GMBL
I'm not sure where you are going with the BOS examples. A team like BOS would have had to pay McAvoy more perhaps but Pastrnak would still be at 6.6M for those 3-years.
Rantanen didn't get a cheap deal, he got an expensive one like Matthews.
Imagining Draisaitl at 6Mx6 and McDavid at 11x6 is like imaging Nylander at 4Mx8 and Matthews at 10.1Mx8.
If you mean to say that Draisaitl and McDavid had higher cap hits, than Matthews and Nylander sure, but they didn't have higher cap hits than Matthews and Marner, and their top 3 paid players weren't making as much as a Matthews, Marner, and Tavares. The media likes to lump in Nylander in there as well but it's not like they really got a bad deal. At the end of the day, no team not was paying 3-guys 10M+, so no one got screwed more than the Leafs who were anticipating that the percentage be less.
You seem to be struggling with some basic principles of young RFAs:
When you have a young guy hit RFA, you can do 1 of 2 things.
Option 1: Bridge Deal/Intermediate
You don't get full term and you have to sign them to a newer, much more expensive deal when the contract is over, but in exchange you get a lower AAV in the short term, and protection in case of injury/fall off
Option 2: 8 year deal
You offer them the full 8 years, locking them up through their prime years (28-31 or so), at a very reasonable rate, locked in price in the late term. In exchange you have to pay them more while they're still developing and assume the risk if they get hurt. (these deals often look like steals later on if the player breaks out and asthe cap goes up)
In normal times, the pros and cons for both generally balance out, as the early payments on long terms deals as the cap rises to make them look like steals.
Teams trying to immediately contend, and more often on their less core pieces, will more often go for bridge deals to maximize their immediate winning potential.
Teams that are more rebuilding, or looking to build a long term window/build around a true core piece, will often opt for the 8 year deals, knowing that the short term payments will be outweighed as the cap goes up and they develop into steals of a contract.
So, when the leafs did not get full term on the 3, it lowered the AAV they'd have to pay over the life of those deals vs an 8 year extension.
Whereas with Edmonton's 2, the 8 year deals raised the AAV to pay off down the line as the cap went up.
Now, when the cap didn't go up, the market stagnated. This meant that the higher AAVs that Edmonton had to pay early were even more pricey than they thought, and the money they thought they'd save compared to an extension after a bridge was less. This significantly screwed them over.
Now, compared to the leafs, when the market stagnated, this meant that the early money they saved by not buying those extra years was even more valuable than they thought it would be, and the money they thought they'd have to pay on the new deals was less than they expected.
The confusion here comes from 2 things:
1: the leafs got hosed in negotiations regardless, paying what they should have on an 8 year deal AAV wise, without getting said term. So fans looking back don't see the AAV savings bc they overpaid compared to the market
2: the Tavares contract, which is a UFA contract and so is a different principle.
On Veteran Long term UFA contracts, you almost always know that the deal will be bad towards the end of it as players leave their primes.
So with these you get a bargain in the early years, and pay the piper in the later years.
This is the reason Orlov got 7.75x2, because the term was short and so they don't have to pay the piper when he's 37, so they pay now.
WIth the cap stagation, that later price gets more and more hefty as it's a higher % of the cap than you thought it would have been.
The marner deal is especially unfathomable.
Here's a list of RFA wingers to get more than 9.5 million dollars:
Ovi at 9.538 on a 13 year deal in 2008
Marner at 10.9 mill.
Especially at 22 years old, with 4 full years of RFA control. And still not getting full term.
That's unfathomably bad deal considering he had never even cracked 30 goals.
Tkachuk after his 42 goal 104 point season, much closer to UFA: 9.5x8
Kucherov 1 year away from UFA after his 40 goal 100 point season: 9.5x8
Rantanen after his 74 game, 31 goal, 87 point season: 9.25x6
BENT OVER