Quoting: Leafsfan98
That's fair opinion, but Matthews seems to be a near lock for the Rocket trophy, so does that mean he's hoping that McDavid goes nuclear to have any chance at the Hart? Or is he hoping Toronto comes out of nowhere are wins the division with him being the reason?
What's the assessment? Most valuable player? Than that depends who you ask... Most valuable player to his own team? How much worse is team x without player y?
I think this is what makes the Hart trophy race so interesting this year... Is Mackinnon a franchise player? 100%! But does he impact Colorado more then Matthews would with Toronto?
Then you have all other factors too... Defensive play, line mates, Goals vs Assists, PP vs EV points, etc
Matthews' biggest hang-up to being a lock for the Hart is the whole "who's turn is it" debate that the NHL Writers Association have to (stupidly) factor in to every debate. Of the four names in question, MacKinnon is the only one who hasn't won it yet.
We know the Rocket is essentially locked up: Matthews is going to be taking home hardware. Having thought about it a bit more, I think Nate only wins the Hart outright now if he also wins the scoring race and that the PHWA would never vote for Kucherov to win the Hart after his All-Star appearance. I'm also not trying to account for the standings because I think the PHWA doing so is also a boneheaded move but will do so below. Thus I think the breakdown is as such:
1. If MacKinnon wins the Art Ross, he also wins the Hart, circumspect of just being a dominant player this season.
2. If Kucherov wins the Art Ross and Tampa Bay is in a divisional playoff spot, then I think it's a 50-50 between MacKinnon and Matthews.
3. If Kucherov wins the Art Ross and Tampa Bay is in a wildcard spot, I think the field of MacKinnon, Matthews, and McDavid is fair game strictly because the PHWA is going to have a vendetta against Kucherov. If there is no vendetta, then Kucherov should be winning the Hart in this case.
4. If McDavid wins the Art Ross and Toronto is in a divisional playoff spot, McDavid wins the Hart with factors of a torrid late pace and the diminished factor of Matthews' importance to the Leafs' success.
5. If McDavid wins the Art Ross and Toronto is in a wildcard spot, then I think it's a 50-50 between Matthews and McDavid.
6. All points are moot if Matthews scores 76 or more goals to tie/break the "modern" mark set by Mogilny and Selanne, as the Hart sort of has to go his way at that point.