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BurnEmUp

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Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 9, 2020 at 11:49 p.m.
Thread: jersey Johnny
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Vanderm</b></div><div>Lol, I hear you man.

I’m asking for actual ideas. 95% of Flames fans on the site keep telling all the Armchair GMs that no trade is “fair value” for Johnny. Its just not true. Unless Johnny actually breaks open games for CGY in the playoffs like he’s the best forward on the team — and most importantly, helps the team win games when it matters — then folks need to make an adjustment to trade value. I’ll cheer for him to find that level of compete this playoff run, but if the trend continues from the past 4 years, his value ain’t going to stay at “fair market value” to CGY, or any other team in the league.

I wasn’t impressed with him against WPG at all. He’s playing at 10-20% of his potential, which we see during the regular season.</div></div>

Yeah he hasn't been great for a while now, but I doubt GMs are as fickle as fans are, and I'm pretty certain Treliving won't sell low on him.

Hard to speculate a Gaudreau trade, not many point per game wingers (over the last 5 seasons) get traded with term left. Stone got dealt for a top prospect and a 2nd, but that was with two months left on his deal. Gaudreau has two years left. So taking term left into consideration, maybe a comparable would be to the Rangers for Nils Lundkvist and Carolina's 1st round pick and maybe one other piece like Georgiev or Lias Andersson? I dunno. Keep in mind that Nils Lundkvist is roughly a top 20 NHL drafted prospect.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 9, 2020 at 1:11 p.m.
Thread: Markstrom and Hall
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SweetRevenge19</b></div><div>Hmm I haven’t seen him be platooned into the current playoff series..
Let’s face it, he’s a backup. A backup that has been platooning bc of Flames poor net options.
But your argument has made our point. Why would the Wings give up a 3rd rd pick, for a platoon goalie that’s not a true 1.</div></div>

No, he's not a back up hes a young platoon goalie. He's started over half of the Flames games the last two seasons at age 26 and 27. That's not a back up, that's a platoon guy. He's not playing right now because as is the case with all platoon situations, the Flames are going with the hot hand at the moment, and that is currently Talbot, who is 5 years older and actually been a #1 in the league before and been to the post season before as well. No shame in that.

Also, you aren't getting a true #1 goalie anywhere for a 3rd round pick, that's why it's just for a 3rd round pick. If he was a true #1 it would cost a lot more.

The guy is only 27 and only been in the league for 3 years. That is nothing for a goalie, many of whom don't blossom until their late 20's. He's a proven platoon goalie who still has potential to be a full time starter one day soon.

And finally, I even stated in the description it didn't have to be Detroit, it could be any team looking for what I've described here.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 9, 2020 at 12:36 p.m.
Thread: Pens 2020-2021
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dan10900</b></div><div>ZAR:
CA/60: 47.81
xGA/60: 1.58
GF%: 53.85
xGF%: 54.98
GF-xGA: 0.26
QoT: 0.099 (322nd overall, 206th among forwards]
Also had the highest EVD GAR among forwards league wide, and really good RAPM numbers
OZ start%: 31.03%

Sam Bennet:
CA/60: 57.94
xGA/60: 2.21
GF%: 48.57
xGF%: 52.59
GF-xGA: -0.49
QoT: -0.083 (396th overall, 251st for forwards, so he did have noticeably worse TM's overall, but ZAR does boost his TM's defensive stats bc they play so much together and he's that good, making his defensive QoT seem inflated)
OZ start%: 50.82% (and there goes any advantage he had in terms of "context")

But hur dur AdVaNcEd StAtS, I only like points and goals, not looking at how a player affects the game or how we can look at stats to get a good feel of how players will play next season, am i right!</div></div>

Yeah exactly. Nothing I see there suggests that one is really any better than the other just like I thought, at least not enough to claim one is "so much better" and its "not even close". They're a couple of mid twenty year old 3rd/4th liners with very comparable value league wide.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 8, 2020 at 3:03 p.m.
Thread: Take 1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DifferentTages</b></div><div>And I’ll say it again, Duchene is hardly the only comparable for Monahan, and the Duchene trade hardly locks in the value of a Monahan return.
You’ve conveniently ignored Monahan’s current season your valuation, and the defensive acumen of guys like O’Reilly and Kadri.

Yes, he is the Flames number one centre and no they don’t have to trade him.
But if they decided they wanted to this off-season, a good NHL player, a prospect and a pick is a reasonable return.</div></div>

It's not nearly enough, especially when there is nothing special about the prospect, and the draft pick is only a 2nd rounder that's a year away, and the roster player is a Dmen that will force the Flames to expose one of their other Dmen in the expansion draft. The above return is terrible for Monahan and makes no sense.

Also, I haven't "locked in" the Duchene return. But it should be much closer to that than the proposal in this ACGM.

I also haven't "conveniently ignored" Monahan's current season either, it's factored into the numbers I posted. So even with a down season his numbers are way better than all the guys you listed, and I take the 5 year sample size over 1 year all day and twice on Sundays.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 8, 2020 at 2:22 p.m.
Thread: Take 1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DifferentTages</b></div><div>J T Miller 27 goals 72 points (career highs)
Ryan OReilly 12 goals 61 points Career highs, 28, 77
Brayden Schenn 25 goals 58 points, Career highs 28, 70
Sean Monahan 22 goals 48 points, Career highs 34, 82
Matt Duchene 13 goals 42 points, Career highs 31, 70
Vincent Trochek 11 goals 38 points, Career highs 31, 75
Nazem Kadri 19 goals 36 points, Career highs 32, 61

Clearly there is some mystical plateau inhabited by only Duchene and Monahan.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BurnEmUp</b></div><div>You have to go back to look at their career averages and career highs at the time of their trades, not now lol</div></div>

Here let me do it:

At the time of their trades:

ROR1 (23) - 0.21 gpg / 0.57 ppg - Highs of 28g / 64p
ROR2 (26) - 0.23 gpg / 0.64 ppg - Highs of 28g / 64p
Kadri (28) - 0.28 gpg / 0.63 ppr - Highs of 32g / 61p
Schenn (25) - 0.25 gpg / 0.57 ppg - Highs of 26g / 59p
Miller (25) - 0.21 gpg / 0.54 ppg - Highs of 23g / 58p

Duchene (27) - 0.30 gpg / 0.73 ppg - Highs of 30g / 70p
Monahan (25) - 0.35 gpg / 0.76 ppg - Highs of 34g / 82p

Monahan is so under rated around here, it's quite comical actually.

I say again, closest comparable is Duchene, and Monahan is younger, slightly more productive and also has 3 years term remaining. Not to mention the Flames won't be trading just for ****s and giggles either. He's our number 1 C and they don't have to trade him.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 p.m.
Thread: Take 1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DifferentTages</b></div><div>You picked the best trade return you could find for a Monahan comparable and you said Mittlestadt is teetering on bust, when he’s 7th in games played and 9th in points in his draft class.

I don’t think history supports you. Top six players are traded for a player a pick and a prospect all the time. It’s kind of a well-known trope.
Montour is a good player, Buffalo’s 2nd is a pretty high pick, and CaseyMittelstadt is a 21-year-old 8th overall pick who has already scored 39 NHL points.

Ryan O’Reilly Is the first comparable that comes to my mind. He’s better than Monahan.
He was traded at age 24, along with a 3rd liner, for Zadorov a late first and two pretty good prospects
He was traded at age 27 for a 1st, a 2nd, a pretty good prospect and 2 cap dumps.

Brayden Schenn is a similar player.
He was traded for a late first and another lottery protected 1st.

J.T. Miller hadn’t proved it yet, but he’s as good as Monahan. He went for a mid 1st and a 3rd.

Vincent Trochek was at Monahan’s level. He fell off and went for just two 3rd liners and two unheralded prospects.

Nazem Kadri effectively went for Tyson Barrie

I think it’s the Duchene trade that was the outlier.</div></div>

No, none of those players are as good of a comparable as Duchene. Duchenes production is the only one listed that comes close to Monahan and he still comes up a bit short in that department.