Jan 16, 2018
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DomCholette</b></div><div>I understand your point for Petry.. But I think we can find someone behing Weby this summer like: Vatanen, Barrie or even Gustafson for less$ than Petry.
In regards of our Center position... I like our youth but can we wait 2-3 years before getting rewarded? Sorry but NO. enough is enough in getting a bad team year after year as Price & Weber are getting out of their prime. Barkov, Bergeron, O'Reilly Center becomes dominant @ 25yo... That's mean in 3-4 years from now for KK, Suzuki & Poehling... So I think getting Johansen for the next 5 years is a must... as MTL/ Bergevin failed in the last 5 years in getting a TOP Real Center.</div></div>
Add 2.5M onto whatever Dman you acquire to replace Petry to compensate for the difference between him and Johansen. I have no problem doing a proper rebuild and waiting for the youth, because I think that will lead to a team with a better chance to achieve the real goal of winning a cup, while this deal gives a better chance at making playoffs in the next 2-3 seasons but not really being a legitimate contender. While I would love to see them win a cup with Price and Weber the team isn't built for that right now, and I doubt Johansen changes that. The only way the team competes for a cup in Price and Weber's window is to buy aggressively using the assets that won't be ready until their window is shut, and that just means more bad teams after, and even that is a long shot. Johansen isn't a real top C, he is typically a 55-60 point C, who seems to have declined to a 50-55 point C, and might not even be that.
Your underselling useful assets for MTL in the desperate hope that Johansen is somehow going to be the answer in MTL.
The value isn't bad but every piece MTL is giving up is better than the piece they are receiving, and that's before retention.
While Kapanen is a good long term investment, he is a downgrade from Tatar and MTL doesn't need the cap relief from the difference between them, Leafs would need to add probably a conditional 2021 4th, becomes a 3rd if the Leafs win a round either season and Tatar plays 50% of playoff games. Maybe even becomes a 2nd if they make the ECF either year but I wouldn't push to hard, I am giving a discount due to the Leafs buying in bulk.
Same thing with Petry, he is an upgrade on Liljegren right now and MTL would need to be getting more because they are taking on the risk of a young dman not making the transition to the NHL. A 2nd is likely what would be needed to even it out. I would say it should be conditional and become a 1st if the Leafs have some playoff success but again, buying in bulk should be a bit cheaper. Although with retention I think a first instead of the 2nd would be needed, and a 3rd if the Leafs see some success in the playoffs.
Thompson and Gauthier are relatively even, although Thompson has won more face-offs than Gauthier has taken this season (Gauthier does have a better win%) and I assume that's the reason for the swap. The age difference makes up for the retention here.
Overall for the Leafs trade your looking at a conditional 2nd that can become a 1st or a 1st and conditional 3rd if Petry is retained on, and a 4th that could upgrade to as good as a 2nd. Less than what MTL would get selling these 3 individually, but not an awful return.
Bogosian for Peca 1 for 1 maybe, but MTL doesn't need either player and Peca is cheaper letting them take on cap to increase their return on other trades at the deadline if necessary.
Adding Poehling is an overpay, heck even adding Kovalchuk. Johansen, currently, is a 50 point C making 8M, while Petry is a 5.5M 20+min/gm dman on pace for 45-50 points, which probably favours NSH this season and next. The extra seasons Johansen is signed for actually make him less valuable in my mind, although that's because I'm expecting at least 2 of Kotkaniemi, Suzuki and Poehling to be 50 point C or better in the next few years, making Johansen an 8M/season 3C.
I doubt Petry would be the RD NSH would be interested in anyway if they were dealing with MTL, although he is a good short term solution for them he doesn't help that highly damaging cap situation that might crop up down the road known as Weber's recapture penalty.
Also, MTL likely doesn't have much interest in Johansen, at least not in a deal like this. They aren't a 50 point C away from competing, especially if the are losing a 40 point RD in the process. If they are trading off Petry this season it would either need to be an obvious overpay, since MTL doesn't need to deal him this season to not lose him for nothing, or it means they are committing to finishing the rebuild that last seasons run caused them to drop, and while Johansen would be just inside the age of players I would consider keeping the fact that he has that much term at that price makes him a bad choice.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F3ruS</b></div><div>Yeah just from a value perspective, it's risky... that's why the low value.
They all connected. For me it's a good thing, just don't get injured... and looking at his playing history, maybe he didn't play, because he was injured, i don't know...
All i know is, noone wanted him for 1 way contract 700k $ - which is the reality...
I know you claim teams just didn't bother with him... and now they will... interesting opinion about all the other 20-22 teams who still want to make a playoffs. They are so bad that a super valuable player, like Kovi, is just not an option.(They are really busy they can't evaluate one single 35+ year old player)
But a magical GM, like Bergevin... he is so smart he is above all the other GM's, he gets him for free , then flips him for the huge profit in less than 2 months. YEP. Good Job! I thought they signed him to make the playoffs at all costs... Hmm... Another anomaly we have here... Playoffs or no playoffs.
Montreal has a tendency to keep their players lately, just saying... if he is that valuable, they will keep him... I heard the Montreal GM overvalues all of his players...
What if Kovi playing so well --> Montreal is 7 points out off playoffs spot only at TDL --- Keep Kovi or try to cash in on the respectable 4th round pick? Which one is the correct choice?
That would be fun to see his decision then! I hope they don't lose more than 50% of the games until TDL.... so we might see the results...^^</div></div>
You seem to be deliberately misinterpreting what I'm saying, although maybe I just haven't explained it clearly so I'll try and simplify it. There is a 23 man roster limit until after the trade deadline, if your team is either not suffering from injuries, or will be healthy prior to the deadline and doesn't need immediate help, Kovalchuk wasn't a gamble worth taking. If you signed him and he didn't workout, you just wasted a roster spot and games that could have been used testing internal options. If he did work out, you risk either losing him for nothing on waivers, or needing to risk losing someone else to make space for him. In this case MTL and Kovalchuk were the perfect match, they were desperate enough to roll the dice. Now other teams get to see what Kovalchuk will do outside of LA, some guys just don't work in some systems, while wasting none of their own roster spots. If they like what they see, then it's on them to determine if he just meshed with MTL's system or if he was hampered by LA's. If they feel it was the later then he has value in a trade, and that value would be dependent on Kovalchuk's play.
It's basic risk/reward, signing Kovalchuk to see if he would improve outside of LA was a small but unnecessary risk for most teams. For MTL reward outweighed risk, and now that MTL has mitigated almost the entire risk for other teams, reward is more likely to outweigh risk for them at the deadline.
I hope that explains it a bit better for you.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F3ruS</b></div><div>Nice answer! Now we are talking! So in this topic there is from 2nd,4th,5th,7th.
4th is possible yes, thats almost always a bust :) Except when it's Johnny Gaudreau right Hahahaa :rockon
You need to combine the LA + Montreal though, so there is an alright number of games. This year is the same season. Montreal + LA both out of playoffs = not much difference. it's around 0.5 point/game right now. Blocking shots is only good when you don't get injured though ;) If injury + weeks of sitting out = low value. Need dat fast recovery ability = the younger the body the better , i guess u know this ;)</div></div>
Plenty of players have had bumps in their play based on a change of scenery, and if Kovalchuk is added to that number then his play in MTL will be the deciding factor for his value, not the full season. It will be up to the buyers to decide whether to take the risk of him regressing, although if he keeps putting in an adequate defensive effort most will likely be willing to do to how cheap his cap hit will be, although again the actual return is likely going to be based on his offensive output and what teams are buyers (those teams health, and so on).
Plenty of shots get blocked every game, it's more luck than age that matters in that regard, because any 3rd line rental getting injured now (assuming fracture or similar from shot blocking) is likely a non factor at the deadline regardless of age. Although I love how him blocking shots suddenly became a bad thing to you lol.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F3ruS</b></div><div>BUT his defensive play/thoughness/grit/leadership/age and 1 billion other things... is nothing close to Kreider. You can't just take 1 stat = points for a player and say they are close.... they are not close.... Kreider is the guy who every contender wants... just check any thread... Kovalchuk is the guy who almost noone wants for big value going back to Montreal... 7th rounder sure... but that's very far away from the 2nd...
My logic is not flawed: 40 days in Montreal is not magically turns a 7th round pick into a 3rd round... let's talk about a 3rd then... seems like you hate the 2nd round conversation, when u say things like: "i didn't say it".
So i say 3rd round now or less... is that okay for you... but you can answer your value evaluation and we'll see who will be closer when the trade happens.... cause why are you writing in the topic, if you're not writing your own guesses... that's the fun part imo...
So let's forget about 2nd .... just write your own opinion then! Simple things... and we'll see who's logic was flawed at february 25th...</div></div>
As of right now in MTL, small sample size, Kovalchuk has more blocks and hit per game than Kreider, so he has some grit and toughness to him and is willing to play some defense, although that isn't what teams looking for cheap depth scoring at the deadline will be overly worried about.
Your logic is flawed, because a quarter of the season is more than long enough for things to change, just look at how the playoff picture has changed in the last 40 days.
I don't hate the 2nd round pick conversation, I was just never part of it.
It's to early to determine what Kovalchuk's value will be, 2 games in MTL doesn't show anything, if he magically stays a 1.5 pts/gm player he will be worth more than if he doesn't get another point. He probably ends up somewhere in the middle, which given his play since returning to the NHL and assuming a normal number of teams looking for cheap depth, and Kovalchuk's cap is almost non existent (and I think roster limits disappear), he probably fetches a condition 4th, upgrading based on his scoring in the playoffs.
I'm on the topic because your logic was, from my view, faulty and I felt like pointing it out, but making a guess never hurt anyone. Although making a guess based on a 2 game sample size when he has 22 more before the deadline isn't likely to be accurate.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F3ruS</b></div><div>He put up decent numbers in LA. Really easy to check... This year like 16 games 9 points. Looks decent to me... Last year... decent numbers.... you can look him up... or you want to see him score 110 points in 80 games?
It was not you who said the 2nd rounder, but you speaked to me so i just replied to you... whatever...
But that's the whole point of the topic only. If and IF he get's traded: What's the return? 2nd rounder or worse...
I'm saying it's worse... and by a large margin = bad topic = poster has no idea about trade values, sorry, no offense, just stating facts, until it's proven otherwise</div></div>
What are you talking about, who said anything about 110 points in 80 games? No one expects prime Kovalchuk, but considering his pts/gm this season are comparable to Kreider, and he is a fraction of the cap hit for a team looking for depth scoring, he will have some value at the deadline. How much value he has will depend on his performance in MTL. Honestly I don't really know or care what he will get, I just know that your logic of no one signed him so he has no value is incredible flawed. By that logic any undrafted player has no trade value because no one picked them, and any UFA who doesn't get a contract offer on July 1st has no value because obviously if anyone else wanted them they would have made an offer right?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MisstheWhalers</b></div><div>Yup I get it and I think it kind of works for both teams really, the Habs would be kind of lost without Weber but if they see growth coming from their young RHD like Fleury and Petry can hold down the fort then maybe it's worth it to them.</div></div>
Honestly I would call up Juulsen if Weber got traded, if only to see if he can play like he did the last few seasons while Weber was hurt.
This trade isn't getting Weber though. Removing the wash of Lehkonen for Bonino, this is a 50 point RD having a career year who should have another 2 seasons of solid offensive play left in him, for a 55-60 point C who likely has about 3 solid offensive seasons left in him (based off of overall talent, play style, current performance, etc.) That's not a trade I would make, especially not with a team who, assuming Weber's play drops off and he retires when his salary drops to 1 mil/season, would be saving 3 million in cap space during those seasons by acquiring Weber this coming off season. Retention on Johansen, a decent pick, or a really good pick with conditions are some of the things that would make it worth while for MTL but I'm not sure NSH would want to do that.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MisstheWhalers</b></div><div>Isn't Weber signed till he's 40? lol
Even if Johanson is an overpaid 2C he's signed in his prime and there probably wouldn't be much decline in his play, this would be pretty good for Montreal, doubt the Preds do it though.</div></div>
Weber is signed until he's 40, and if he retires before that (say in one of his final 3 seasons when he makes a combined 3 million) Nashville pays more than his current cap hit in recapture penalties for the seasons that he would have been playing. Those penalties go down if Nashville reacquires him now, since his salary is lower than his cap hit, and he still has a few good years while that happens.
Johansen, right now, is looking like a 55ish point C making 8 million until he is 33. That's not a contract I love either, but if it goes it's gone from Nashville's books.
Overall, if Nashville felt confident that they could get 2 seasons of Weber putting up around 45-50 points, and they don't expect Johansen to hit high 60's again, this isn't a bad deal for them with the cap recapture hanging over their future. Nashville is most likely taking cap from Weber's contract once he falls off the cliff, the only question is how much, and this helps lower that number and hopefully gets them a few productive years from him at the same time.