Jan 16, 2018
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BCAPP</b></div><div>Pacioretty was underappreciated in Montreal. He was literally like a top 8 winger in the league in his last 5 years there. Its crazy.
Anyway, I think you look at the Muzzin trade, but I think Muzzin was a little better.
So a late first (not this nonsense of an unprotected future first) and two good second tier prospects, but honestly Muzzin is better, so maybe the first and one second tier prospect.</div></div>
Muzzin was also on a team that had admitted defeat and started selling. MTL's management has already stated they believe that injury derailed the season and they can make the playoffs next season, so why would they accept the same value for a similar player when it's outright hurting their goal, instead of helping like in the case of LA. The Muzzin trade can be a good base, but your adding to it, not subtracting, because the teams management groups have different goals and therefore require different returns. The trade I put forward wasn't one that I thought would be fair in a vacuum, I was stating what I believe would be required for MTL to move Petry at this point.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BCAPP</b></div><div>Pacioretty was coming off a poor year but was something like 8th in goal scoring over the 5 years before you traded him. Petry is a good but not great dman.</div></div>
I look at Petry's stats, 22nd in goals and 30th in points among all defensmen since 15-16 and what he is doing this season, and see a top pairing offensive defensman at the peak of his career, while Pacioretty was a top line winger who didn't really have the support to show whether he was great or just a great goal scorer. Taking into account the value of the positions and that Pacioretty was more of a gamble than Petry would be, due to needing to bounce back from a pretty decent injury while closing in on 30, I would put their trade value as similar, maybe leaning towards Petry as I said, due to Pacioretty's split with management and MTL's current lack of replacement for Petry when management is talking about trying to make playoffs next season. You view Petry differently, and seem to view the likelyhood of Pacioretty bouncing back as almost a sure thing.
Like I said, I doubt any team, especially one not lacking in scoring like Toronto, would pay what would be required to get him from MTL this season.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>FrustratedToronto</b></div><div>Interesting. What do MTL fans think Petry is worth, exactly? Or, maybe more importantly, what pieces need to be part of the return for Petry?</div></div>
I'd take something similar to the Pacioretty deal, probably on the slightly higher side. I figure he should fetch more considering the extra year on the contract balances out being allowed to negotiate prior to the deal being finalized, MTL could retain to the same cap hit or lower if needed, top 4 RD are more valuable than top 6 LW, Pacioretty was known to be the odd man out and although he was a bit younger he was turning 30 that coming season while coming off an injured shortened season that was already a down year based on his production.
Pacioretty deal was a lesser player with a bit of extra term to act as a fill in, which is what Tatar was at the time, a high end prospect at a position of need (Suzuki) and a 2nd. So comparing that to this trade, Dermott would fill the Tatar role, Johnsson is a 3LW with some term which isn't a huge need for MTL but in relation to their needs he swaps in for the 2nd rounder, so the Leafs would need to add a high end prospect at whatever position MTL feels is the most in need of help (depending on how high they are on their current LD prospect pool, and their confidence in Caufield, Poehling and KK, I would say RD would be the position they'd have the most interest in if that helps).
I doubt a team pays enough to pry Petry out of MTL this season or offseason since they don't have a sure replacement for his minutes, never mind replacing his production, and management thinks they can make playoffs nexts season. This is the kind of deal I think it would take though.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Gofnut999</b></div><div>Someone‘s delusional. Lol.</div></div>
Kapanen would be 8th in pts/gm among MTL forwards with over 25 games played this season, which leaves Drouin out but includes Kovalchuk so he's also 8th among forwards under contract next season in MTL. That's Kapanen having a career year on a team with one of the best offenses in the league, and since Domi was Kapanen's age last season but most people on here consider his year as an anomaly, we should consider this an anomaly for Kapanen. I know Kapanen does a lot of other things well, but what he does well is what you expect from your 3rd line. So Kapanen is a good young 3rd liner with 2 years then arbitration eligiblility (so a few extra years of team control), while Petry is a good 2nd pairing RD with an additional year under contract (who is in no way the defensive answer for the Leafs, no way I would be targeting him as Leafs GM, but would fit their style pretty well). Those 2 things are not equal in value.
Ceci is at best nothing in this trade, but a dice role like Korshkov is likely the rate to ditch Ceci's cap at the deadline.
Thompson for Gauthier is about even though leaning in MTL's favour, Leafs give up youth for a more experienced player at the same depth position (4C) that's easy to get a cheap replacement for in the offseason.
So does a 2nd make up for the difference of a 2RD and a 3rd line winger, maybe but it certainly isn't an overpay and probably would have the majority on this site voting Leafs win the trade, and if your adding costs to the buyer because it's an in division trade then it's a deal favouring the Leafs by a decent margin.
Change the conditions on the 3rd so that it becomes a 2nd if Pit makes the 2nd round this season or next and a 1st if they win 3 rounds total over the remainder of Tatar's deal and MTL would probably take it. Pittsburgh is a contender so it's an easy sell to the MTL fanbase as an almost guaranteed 2 1st round picks, even if they are late 1st's, and Bjugstad's contract isn't awful (not good value right now but 4M for one season shouldn't hurt MTL much).
Not sure if Pittsburgh takes the deal, since if they make the finals this year then somehow bottom out next season they wouldn't have their 1st, so maybe top 10 protection on the 2021 pick if it became a 1st. Plus I doubt Pens fans would like trading, potentially, two 1st round picks. Pittsburgh accepting depends on what they feel their window as a legitimite contender is (because there is no way they don't see themselves as a contender right now), and does 2 shots with Tatar on the roster give them a better chance than in that window than whatever else those picks would bring, whether it's the guys picked or other trade options.
Tatar is not only one of the best forwards available at this deadline, possibly the best available, but is also under contract for another season. Rentals of Tatar's caliber typically cost a 1st, or a prospect with significant value.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Nights_King93</b></div><div>I'm sorry.. But if you are comparing Tatar to Pacioretty I have to stop there. No one will compare the two players. Patches has so many tools that make him an elite player from time to time. Tatar is having a great year, but no one will ever say he is an elite player. I think all of Montreal would agree with that.
If I'm the Pens, I would give up Poulin, a first, and a good deal more to get Pacioretty, even though i think his contract will eventually turn sour. Tatar is just not the same player.
I use the Vegas example because this year doesn't show his true value. The Pens have to think about worst case scenario... The Vegas issue is worst case scenario. They didn't try to play him on the fourth line. For the entirety of his Pens career, Kessel played most of his minutes on the third line and PP. This is similar to what Vegas was doing with Tatar until he went ice cold.
Tatar is a system fit kind of guy. His production WILL be affected by the system he is in. That is the main point about the Vegas production. Montreal is using this season to prepare their young talent moving forward. There is nothing wrong with that at all. But Tatar is benefitting from that greatly.</div></div>
I'm comparing the trade value Pacioretty had at the time of his trade, with one season remaining, looking for a pay raise while also coming off a 37 point in 64 game season while being known as on the outside going forward in MTL, to the trade value of Tatar at this upcoming deadline, having this playoff run in addition to another season remaining before needing a raise or to be let go, while already having 49 points in 54 games. Pacioretty is decent defensively, but Tatar hasn't exactly been a liability since joining the Habs. Tatar is also almost 2 full years younger than Pacioretty, meaning he is about the same age as Pacioretty when the trade happened.
The simple fact is that Vegas didn't use Tatar as a top 6 forward, and within the year had changed 50% of their top 6. That doesn't exactly scream proper player usage. I doubt the Pens have that kind of uncertainty in their forward group.
Getting rentals of Tatar's calibre, one this season and one next instead of trading for Tatar this season, would cost more than what is being asked for to get Tatar at this TDL, that's the point I am making.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Nights_King93</b></div><div>I'm not comparing them, I'm just saying that he isn't quite the skater and qualified him as more of a sniper. I've seen him on lines with Kovalchuk that looked pretty slow when Montreal was playing with their combos.
He is scoring with Montreal but someone has to. He was dreadful in Vegas. You may be right, but i never said anything about Montreal. I said if you want to get that in return the Pens say no and walk away. If you get a first, you might get a second tier prospect. You won't be walking away with their first and Poulin.
If someone else overpays for him. Good for you guys. If not, you better hope you are contending next year.</div></div>
You seem to like bringing up Vegas to diminish Tatar's trade value (a good number of people seem to), but ignore the fact that Vegas traded for a top 6 winger (Tatar) then refused to use him in the top 6 because 'chemistry', and less than a year later, literally by the next deadline, either traded or demoted to bottom 6 roles half of their top 6 to bring in 3 new guys (Statsny, Pacioretty, and Stone). If you want to view that as a players failure that's fair, it might be, but it certainly looks like Vegas screwed up by trying to hard to ride the whole outcasts identity they had further than it could carry them.
As for his value, figure out what a team would trade for a rental having the season Tatar is having and then add what a team who thinks the will be contending will trade for that during the off season, and then you have a 'fair' price for Tatar. The Pacioretty trade, were MTL had almost no leverage, is a good base for the 2nd part, and this coming TDL will have some comparables, but Tatar's pts/gm (in what is admittedly a career year) are currenly better this season than any rental available.