J2W

Member Since
Jan 16, 2018
Favourite Team
Montreal Canadiens
Forum Posts
382
Posts per Day
0.39
Forum Threads
11
Forum: Armchair-GMAug 9 at 11:19
Forum: Armchair-GMAug 9 at 11:01
Forum: Armchair-GMAug 9 at 4:05
Forum: Armchair-GMJun 19 at 12:31
Thread: Clear cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mhockey91</b></div><div>I’m not denying Gourde struggled this year. But based on the last 3 years his numbers are wayyyy better than Lehkonen or Armia. He’s 28. He’s not 38. I don’t think he’s regressing. I think he had an off year. Habs would be better to trade Tatar and get some future assets while gourde in an expanded role in MTL could help replace his production. 50-60 points is a very realistic point total for gourde. To start the season.

Tatar-Danault-Gallagher
Domi-Suzuki-Gourde
Drouin-JK-Armia

Gives this team a really balanced top 9 to start the year. Though I do believe Tatar will be traded at the deadline. He’s absolutely capable of putting up 50-60 points on that line. I’m not a Tampa fan and don’t care for them. I just think MTL is a good fit for both teams</div></div>

Based on most stats looking at NHL forwards production in relation to age Gourde is on the back half of his career. He's likely 40-45 points going forward and not 50-60 points. He had one really good year when he managed to make the NHL at an older age than most, and he's dropped off both years since. If he had less term, or there was less uncertainty about the cap, I'd be happy to get him for scraps but 5 years at more than 5M for a guy who has been on the downswing just isn't a good use of cap space. Personally I'd still likely take the risk (I'd be less than ecstatic about it and if I'm the only team he's willing to waive his full NTC for I'd push for retention to about 4.5M), but I won't pretend a 28 year old who's production would make him bottom 6 and has seen a decline the last 2 years should be referred to as one of the better wingers on the team if the trade happened.
I'd gamble that his short term usefulness made would allow me to move him for similar value in a season or two, since I think waiving his NTC would void it moving forward (if not then I wouldn't trade for him) and the cap should hopefully recover with Seattle and the new US TV deal in a few years.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun 18 at 11:36
Thread: Clear cap
Forum: Armchair-GMJun 18 at 10:13
Thread: Clear cap
Forum: Armchair-GMJun 18 at 9:26
Thread: Clear cap
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19 at 11:48
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>Generally I agree, but as I said I do not respect Bergevin's ability to build a team or evaluate talent. I also think that Couture is better than just his raw points would say and certainly better for you than either of the options you've provided. I also want to point out that Couture has been the 1C for a few years now and is a bonified 1C. He is no Matthews or Eichel or McDavid but he is a 1C through and through.

As I stated in the og thread where I justified this trade further I think Bergevin's seat is beginning to heat up (you certainly aren't sucking on purpose) and that both he and Molson are not interested in re-building. To further clarify for J2W, I also think Bergy would see Vlasic (especially at this much retention) as an asset as many people still do (mostly those who aren't analytically inclined). If you work from the idea that the Habs are trying to win now and want to buy, 'adding' Vlasic and more importantly that 1C you have been missing for so long could be seen as the piece that finally brings you over the top.

You argue that Price and Weber's contracts make this less likely but I actually see it the other way. Your team has two time bombs on it already that are going to weigh you down for years. What is two more if it helps you win a cup now? You have a window already pre-built into your roster and these players don't affect it. I think that is why I think this move does have some logic behind it even if I wouldn't do it as a GM.

Specifically for J2W, MTL doesn't have serious cap issues for a number of years and are in what I describe as a uniquely capable position of dealing with the Vlasic and Couture contracts compared to the rest of the league. The next USTV deal will be signed soon and Covid wont last forever so the cap should be bouncing up soon enough.</div></div>

Again you're justification for the trade is your opinion of the GM and see it as a long shot but possible, that's fine. Couture on his own is something I'd explore, but if Mtl is in win now mode the might as well look at Kopitar and someone like Brodin for futures. Even in win now mode it's a barely passable idea, there's just better options out there.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19 at 8:57
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wqrrior</b></div><div>Greenway/Ek &gt; Lehkonen. Stalock &gt; Juulsen. And Brodin &gt; Domi. (Though I'll give you that Brodin as a UFA balances it) Of course they wouldn't take that. Lehkonen is also largely overvalued by habs fans. He's more of a bottom six player than either of those I offered.

There might be a difference between a 2nd line center and a third line center, but you are enlarging it to be far more drastic than it should be. Also I am trading for his rights here, not a set contract. He might demand so much money that MTL won't want to sign him and that they are forced to trade him for the sake of the team long term.
If he was already signed and there was more clarity on what his contract picture was like, a reasonable contract would warrant him a higher return.</div></div>

Lehkonen is also a 3rd line winger, of similar age to Greenway and Ek, and while less talented offensively is better defensively, pick what you value more in your bottom 6 and that's who has more value. Personally I would go Ek-Lehkonen-Greenway, but to each their own. Backups have less value than they should, simply because some prospect could jump out of nowhere and make the trade a waste of value, and while Juulsen does have low value do to injury with Primeau and the Demchenko signing it's doubtful MTL views him as less valuable than a backup during the offseason.
Brodin would be a rental who could leave for nothing if his ask is to high or just if he feels like it, while even Domi's rights give you value because he is an RFA, so Domi has more value than Brodin without an extension.
Seriously though, you're overvaluing Wild players, while trying to be on a high horse about Habs fans overvaluing Habs players. Look at past deals for young 50 point RFA centers, they don't come this cheap. Rentals cost more.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19 at 8:11
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19 at 5:09
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wqrrior</b></div><div>The only part about Domi in their assessment that I agree with is that they don't NEED to move him. However, I would have to say his value has peaked and will be on the decline, so I make these trades actually for their benefit. Domi is a 2nd liner at best... a 40 -50 point support guy... he isn't carrying a line.

His value should be around the same as what VGK traded Tatar for... a first, second and third. Greenway holds the value of a first, Stalock a 3rd (and fills a desperate need for MTL), and potentially a pair of 2nds if he lives up to the supposed value he carries.

It's funny how if a mediocre to average player spends any time with the Habs their value suddenly skyrockets. If MTL was BUYING Domi from any other team, I bet they'd be doing it for a pair of 2nds and that's all.</div></div>

Glass houses man, you talk about MTL fans overvaluing players while saying Greenway, a 23 year old bottom 6 winger, is worth a 1st. And Stalock doesn't really do much, at least until part way into the season considering Primeau and the signing of Demchenko.
Also, Domi has, based on points per game, been on pace for 50 every season but 1, so saying 40-50 point guy comes off as an undersell, even if it's accurate do him having some injury issues. I mean he was on pace for 50 this season and even non MTL fans are saying it was a down season, not just a regression but a down season. Domi is better, younger, and an RFA when compared to Tatar at the time of the Vegas trade, so he would be worth more.
A comparison would be Lehkonen, Juulsen and a 2nd for Brodin, Wild fans would be rightly insulted.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19 at 3:50
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19 at 11:27