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MelonVK

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Jul. 5, 2017
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Forum: NHL SigningsMar. 18, 2022 at 12:58 p.m.
Thread: San Jose Sharks signed Tomas Hertl (8 Years / $8,137,500 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Vladislav_Agaev</b></div><div>interim gm joe will say he want shark to compete next year. i think other big move coming in summer to help team be playoff. rebuild not possible for 2 reason:
1) contracts too many big.
2) attendance. shark dont have comfort like chicago, philly, boston, pitt, new york etc to spend years rebuild. friedman say sharks skittish about rebuild cause once you lose fan in sj hard to get back. attendance is already lowest since 2003 and time is limited. cant take year and year to get top picks. shark must compete to stay relevant or fan move to something else. this business too not just hockey
3) hertl biggest player since thornton and pavelski. lose hertl-lose another thousand tickets maybe more. bad for shark business.

i think deal fair with money. maybe a year too long but shark need hertl more than anyone. eklund also already big in sj. timo too. 48-38-88-28-65-72 all new core. cant lose that core or lose all revenue. Logan not big favorite in shark fan. he never live up to pavelski</div></div>

I'm just thinking as an option - trade him for some up and coming star. You don't even have to involve picks, just trade him for an exciting, young name you can market instead. And just in some sense stop digging your own grave 3 years down the line. I believe Hertl will be a net positive at this money, but you can never use him meaningfully.

If ticket sales are tanking I think thats even more reason to pull a stop to this madness. Where will tickets be in 3 years? or 5? if you can't handle that, you need to sell while there's still something left to sell.
Forum: NHL TradesNov. 5, 2021 at 10:09 a.m.
Thread: (BUF/VGK) - Eichel, 2023 3rd for Krebs, Tuch, 2022 1st, 2023 2nd
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheBoyDuddus</b></div><div>I'm not sure if I'm alone on this but I dont think Chicago paid more for Jones, let alone "so much more". Boqvist and Krebs are both high end prospects and could cancel out. Both teams gave up a 2nd along with a 2022 first.

That leaves you with Alex Tuch vs a 2021 first round pick swap going from 32nd to 12th. I'd say Tuch is worth a lot more than whatever it would cost to move up those 20 places, especially considering the 2021 draft was such a crapshoot. I didnt even mention the fact that Vegas also had to give up an additional 3rd round pick when Chicago only gave up a 6th.

Chicago 100% paid less for Jones and they also have him under team control for 4 more years than Vegas has with Eichel.

Genuinely curious to know why you think Jones was more expensive?</div></div>

You make some good points, but also fail to recognize that having Jones for more years is bad, actually
Forum: NHL SigningsNov. 3, 2021 at 5:52 a.m.
Thread: Vegas Golden Knights signed Zach Whitecloud (6 Years / $2,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Saskleaf</b></div><div>Ya, offensive talent is easily and directly comparable with goals, points and assists, but defensive stats are a bit harder to understand and compare.</div></div>

I do believe shots added/reduced in either direction is a really good proxy for offensive/defensive effect at least. But yeah, barring any crazy stuff going on points usually follow. If you add some playing time and zone usage components you're already really close to getting the actual value compared to expected. This though is where I think many people are making mistakes based on their intuition. P.Kane has to be good because he puts up a lot of points, right? Well, the expected points produced when playing his minutes is actually really high. I think the best example I can bring up is Ryan Spooner if you remember him. He was seen as this pretty good but offense-only type of player in Boston. Then when he got traded, and completely fell off, cause no team could hide him behind a Bergeron line.

Anyways, what's missing after all that is mostly what effect players have on each other and coaching etc. which both can be really hard to discern.

What's funny too is that in the end, teams are kind of what they are. Whenever I talk about specific players being better or worse it's almost never an attack on someones team. Toronto is pretty much as good as people believe, give or take a few standing points, I just remove some of Rielly's general credibility and attach even more to Matthews, Nylander etc.
Forum: NHL SigningsNov. 2, 2021 at 3:58 p.m.
Thread: Vegas Golden Knights signed Zach Whitecloud (6 Years / $2,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Saskleaf</b></div><div>Fair enough. I'm also not overly familiar with Whitecloud (and am very familiar with Rielly) so there might be some bias, too.</div></div>

Sure, yeah. Last season Whitecloud looked a bit like a worse Brandon Carlo (worse going forward than good in his own end), but the year before he was on some Jonas Brodin level of defence-to-offence ratio - meaning almost average offensively and one of the best in his own end. The issue with defensively strong players, beside the fact that almost no one can identify them, is that there are very few that are consistently good at it. Bergeron is a rare case of continuity, while for example Barkov has very few defensively strong seasons. If it's less predictable it's harder to assign value to.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct. 31, 2021 at 1:16 p.m.
Thread: Vegas Golden Knights signed Zach Whitecloud (6 Years / $2,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Saskleaf</b></div><div>I appreciate the thought you put into this.

I'd still take Rielly over Whitecloud on his contract. I don't think Rielly's past his prime, it seems like he's ancient for how long he's been on the leafs but he's only 27 (many defenseman peak around 30, as opposed to forwards which peak earlier usually). I think it will be at least 3 years before Whitecloud passes Rielly.</div></div>

I believe it's 22-23 for forwards and 24-25 for defenseman, according to the metrics I rely on. It's not so much the age though, as the trend. As I said, he was really good 16-18 but has been trending down ever since. But I guess we'll just wait and see what happens. I suspect Rielly will always put up more points for example, but I value that less than most, so it's not really gonna convince me all that much. I would want to see Whitecloud being anything more than his current offensive void though, to consider him clearly above Rielly on the other hand.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct. 30, 2021 at 8:13 p.m.
Thread: Vegas Golden Knights signed Zach Whitecloud (6 Years / $2,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Saskleaf</b></div><div>Probably none, but you can try (I'm guessing by your user flair "watches no games" that you're a big analytical guy).</div></div>

Yeah It's mostly gonna be extractions of stats showing how, while he does increase offense going forward, Rielly increases offense going his teams direction even more. He was really good in 16-18, then he was basically current Darnell Nurse for two seasons (like a fine offensively minded mid-pair guy), and then pretty damn bad last year.

Whitecloud had an amazing 19-20, like better than any of Rielly's seasons by far. *But* he did have a weaker last year now that I look, and considering the sample maybe he's not currently much better than Morgan.

However, after Rielly lost some offensive touch last season, he's not particularly good at anything. Whitecloud is still a defensively skilled player. I would probably lean Rielly 5on5 currently though, while Whitecloud is a much better specialist.

With time on his side, I do believe that Whitecloud could have some of the better defensive seasons in the league over the next few years. I think Rielly's prime is past him, and he not only needs to come back to offensive form, but do something he's never really done and play defense to be worth his contract.

So, yeah, maybe I was quick on the trigger - Rielly might be just a tad better as of now, but anything beyond this season and I would lean towards Whitecloud, and that's before even considering the money. Meaning I'd rather take him than Rielly for the exact same cap hit and length.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct. 15, 2021 at 8:56 p.m.
Thread: Boston Bruins signed Charlie McAvoy (8 Years / $9,500,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TartarSauce90</b></div><div>Holy overpay!! Adam Fox must be salivating and eager to sign his next contract…</div></div>

"The best defenseman in the league must be thrilled that a top 5 defenseman in this league is making this money"

Well, sure..?

You could pay Adam Fox 11m and come out with a good deal. How many players making this money or above are actually better than McAvoy? I'd say Stone, Kucherov, Eichel, Matthews, Panarin and McDavid. That's 6/20. Maybe Vasilievsky..? So a third?

I just don't.. I don't understand how this is a bad contract unless you compare it with an incredibly good contract. Nurse and Jones are making this type of money soon. In a world where people are massively overpaying young RHD, paying one accordingly seems pretty fine to me.