SalarySwishSalarySwish
Avatar

Playersoverpayed

Member Since
Jun. 18, 2017
Forum Posts
310
Posts per Day
0.1
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 27, 2022 at 1:09 p.m.
Thread: Florida Panthers Draft Board
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BruinsFan35</b></div><div>If I’m being honest, the Panthers should probably look to take a defenseman or left winger over a goalie with their third round pick. But, they’ll need a backup for Knight, and Brennan is the strongest option that should be available to them. He’s got pro size, and has a lot of high end attributes that makes me believe he could be a #1 goalie in the future. But, for the Panthers, Brennan would be an elite backup behind one of the brightest young goalies in the league.</div></div>

I agree.

I would say they need forwards the most, especially pure offensive talents.
Of their RHD prospects is Michael Benning showing some decent offensive upside, but he is small. Other RHD prospect is Kasper Puutio, he is also below 6ft tall. One of them could be trading piece, so one bigger RHD is something they don't have yet.
Goalie Mack Guzda is 21. His OHL career is over, he should go to AHL/ECHL. Gerasimyuk will turn 19 in August. He is coming from SKA system, which is goalie-factory. So FLO can say they have something at the position, at least relative to other positions they need to address.

So I would say:

3rd and 4 th round... Buchelnikov makes a lots of sense, maybe also Neuchev (FLO likes to draft Russians). CHL overagers are also candidates; Logan Morrison, Tucker Robertson, Kyle Jackson.

5th or 6 th round... another RHD in either of the picks. Leddy should be available, possibly also Spacek, Salin, Anderson, Garett Brown, Weir, Gavin White, Komarov...

6th or 7th round... another goalie in either of the picks. Sergei Ivanov is also from SKA system (as Gerasimyuk). But he is on the smaller side which is not something FLO looks to like. On the other hand is slightly taller Alexander Smolin coming from Metallurg Magnitogorsk's system, same as Bobrovski. Smolin could be available late in 7th round. If they are without new goalie and neither of them is available at no. 221, the other candidates are Arefyev, Berezhnoy, possibly even Murashov. NA candidates could be Emett Croteau, Muszelik, Kolby Hay (Cossa's backup), Ty Young (1B option behind Brennan, but almost year younger). Wild card goalie at this spot would be Charles-Edward Gravel, who is coming from Blainville-Boisbrand Armada, same as former FLO goalie Samuel Montembeault.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 23, 2022 at 12:01 p.m.
Thread: Edmonton Oliers Draft Board
I agree, defense, defense, defense.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>christianyog</b></div><div>Edmonton should definitely target one of the overaged goalies like Malik, Brochu, Whitehead in the later rounds.

Could I have an explanation for Murashov?</div></div>

For overage goalie I have decent candidate (not in games that I watched, but it was too small sample size): Zakhar Vinogradov. He is 6ft2, plays in VHL, which is not well scouted. He will turn 20 in autumn and is under contract until 2023/24. He plays positional style, where reading the flow of the play has advantage before athleticism. As mentioned, he wasn't outstanding in games that I watched, just good enough to win. But VHL is league of grown men, nothing should be taken for granted. And his SV% shows he "must" be good. I think he wasn't selected last season, because VHL is not well scouted. Imagine, CAR selected in 7th round goalie from MHL who has also had small sample size (Naumov)... but that guy hasn't played a game this season. In fact he wasn't even good in his 9 games last season. If Vinogradov would be playing MHL or KHL, someone would notice him.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 23, 2022 at 11:46 a.m.
Thread: Detroit Red Wings Draft Board
DET is the most thin on centers of all kind. Another scoring wing could also help, but not as much as centers. And I don't see DET being super-high on another LD. They have several of them in pipeline already (Edvinsson, Wallinder, Johansson, Viro, Sebrango, Buium, McIsaac). I guess they could select exclusively defensive D-man, but majority of the guys projects as NHL players. Roster spots are limited. On the other hand are their RDs already in the NHL. Tuomisto is not in NHL, he is 21 and at RD position might be described as the only prospect with chances to become NHL-er. I would be surprised if DET wouldn't select another NHL-projectable RHD in 2nd or 3rd round.

So for 1st round I agree on BPA forward. Kemell, Lambert, Kasper, Nazar, Russians etc., almost anybody makes sense.
1st pick in 2nd round: center, preferebly big one (Gaucher, Bystedt). If both are gone, BPA big RHD.
2nd pick in 2nd round: probably big RHD. If they already have one, another C makes sense (Goyette, Kulich, Beck, Hughes...)
3rd round and lower: BPAs. DET love Swedish Frolunda team (Persson, Ratkovic Berndtsson, Milosevic). In OHL they like Guelph's players (Bertuzzi, Fabri, Smith, Suter). I guess Yzerman is not as huge fan of a program as former GM Holland, but he traded for Suter anyway. So selecting Zhilkin, Poitras, Karabela or Buchinger in 3rd round and lower would not surprise me.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 21, 2022 at 12:46 p.m.
Thread: Columbus Blue Jackets Draft Guide
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Civil_Eng_PE</b></div><div>I see, you are ignoring (maybe not ignoring, I may not know what the term "prospect" encompasses) Sillinger, K. Johnson, Chinakhov, and Boqvist who all have potential to be top 6 forwards (boqvist top 4 D-man) and are younger than Marchenko and almost all other players you listed. They are just already with the main team. I agree none of those players you listed will be top 6 or top 4 d-man but Columbus just pushed all their young players to the main squad cause they knew they weren't a playoff team. CBJ isn't a team like LA/Anaheim/Montreal who sent their young players back to the AHL to not burn and ELC year so idk if those players like Mctavish or Turcotte count as prospects, because if they do then Kent/Sillinger/Chinakhov can as well. CBJ had more players 21 and under on their main squad than most other teams to end the season.

Also I appreciate the discussion. CBJ's AHL team sucks and most players wont make the main squad minus maybe foudy would be a 4th line grinder but a good one hopefully. and maybe a bottom paring d-men or 2.</div></div>

I forgot about Johnson, he is prospect. On the other hand, Sillinger, Chinakhov and Boqvist are young roster players. It might seem like a lot, but it's really not.

In non-covid years teams need around 30 players who are capable to play in NHL. Injuries are common. That would mean 20-25 older players and 5-10 prospects (who are capable to jump in). I would say on average team should raise 3 new roster players every year. Not necesserely top-6 Fs and top-4 D-men, that would be unreal, but at least players who can play at least 10 minutes per night on their own. After some age, let's say 30, number of players from draft class begin to quickly fall down. By the age of 35 usually there are way less than 10 players from draft class still active. So you can't count on players to play on average 10 seasons (that would be on average up to 820 GP). In fact, 10 seasons per player is rather exception than rule. But I will say franchise needs 30 players per season and (for easier calculation) they play 10 seasons on average. 30:10= 3. On average teams need 3 new faces every season. 2 is not much, 3 is enough. Because, to be fair, drafting is not the only way to get new people. There is also UFA signing, including NCAA and European players. But young players have another advantage, they are cheap (ELC) and waivers-exempt.

To say it differently, CBJ's problem is not bad scouting or development. CBJ is paying price for past effort to jump over first round in the playoffs. Look at 2019 draft, CBJ ended with 3 new prospects, none before 4th round. Over the past several years they have had below-average number of draft picks and below-average position of first selection in the draft. These things usually have to be paid in arrears. 2021 draft was good starting point for revitalization, but it takes more than that.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 21, 2022 at 11:28 a.m.
Thread: Columbus Blue Jackets Draft Guide
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Civil_Eng_PE</b></div><div>Why do you think CBJ's prospect pool isn't that deep?</div></div>

Compare it with prospect pools of other franchises. It is one of the less star-loaded. Realistically, how many players do you consider as potential stars, or maybe legit top 6 forwards and top 4 D-men? Probably Marchenko (who will turn 22 soon) and Ceulemans. Very quickly we are into pedestrian territory:

- Foudy is 22, with 27 GP, 5A. Disappointment given high draft position.
- Pyhhtia is yet to test smaller ice surface. For now you can just hope he will do well. He will turn 21 in December.
- Angle is yet to play in NHL, he will be 22 at the beginning of the season.
- Fix-Wolansky is 23, small, with 6 GP, 2P. Do you count on him to be franchise's cornerstone?
- Malatesta is small and still less than 1 PPG in QMJHL.
- Rysavy is still in WHL, a bit over 0.5 PPG.
- Voronkov is below 0.33 PPG in KHL. He will turn 22 soon.
- Richard might actually turn into something. Decent first season in college. Fingers crossed.
- Christiansen will turn 23 soon. He scores a lot in AHL, but in the NHL he has 8GP, 1G.
- Knazko is still in WHL. He will be 20 soon.
-Svozil was OK in his first season in WHL. Wait if there is more.
- Bjorgvik Holm is 20 and still in OHL.
- Hreschuk had average first season in Boston.
- Makarov struggles to keep his position on 2nd pairing in MHL team.

Now compare that group to other groups in the league. It is in the bottom third, possibly even lower. And many of these prospects are LHDs. They would not all play (if they make it), spots are limited.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 20, 2022 at 2:29 p.m.
Thread: Dallas Stars Draft Board
I would put LHD over LW as need. D-pool is almost empty, so in term of quantity I would give an edge to D-men. Their 2021 draft was very good and their F-pool looks decent.

1st round... BPA. At no. 18 there might be player available, who is around 10-12 range on their list. Take him, no matter if this is Howard, Nazar, Yurov, Korchinski, Pickering, Mateychuk... I would only think twice for Miroshnichenko in 1st round. That would be gambling, especially for a team with only 6 picks.
2nd round... if 1st rounder was D, go BPA. If 1st rounder was F, definitely go D.
3rd round... BPA
lower round... diversification in terms of positions and also some left-right shot balance. Ending with squads 2F-3D-1G or 2F-4D sounds fine to me. Forward, selected in lower rounds, could be power-forward. Kaplan comes to mind.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 20, 2022 at 2:07 p.m.
Thread: Columbus Blue Jackets Draft Guide
CBJ have not drafted Americans since 2017. Fun fact, they have drafted more Columbus-born players than Americans in that span. Sillinger is Columbus-born, but Canadian citizen.
Will they continue the trend or draft or draft 100 Americans? I would say in 1st round that fact is not unimportant. Columbus is small market, unpopular among North-American players (especially Americans). They draft non-Americans, because they are more likely to be satisfied in CBJ. So I think they will continue to draft many international players.

So:
no.6... It's unlikely Nemec will be available, but Jiricek might be. Kemell should be still there. So Jiricek could be option A, Kemell could be option B.
no.12... Lambert, Lekkerimaki, Kasper. Nazar and Savoie might also be available and I think both would be acceptable for CBJ. As cast off Savoie would have a chip on his shoulder, Nazar is from Detroit suburb (100 miles away).
no. 44... Make it 2F, 1RHD after this pick. If they have 2F after first round, go BPA RHD. If they have 1F, 1D after 1st round, go BPA F.
lower rounds... BPAs. Their prospect pool is not very deep, so diversify your selections.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 20, 2022 at 1:42 p.m.
Thread: Colorado Avalanche Draft Board
COL lives like there is no tomorrow. In less than a year they sold away all of their young RHDs (Timmins, Helleson, Barron), all 3 selected high and developed well. That means only win-now is acceptable.

COL will probably draft players with the highest trade value. Let's say 2 players for trading purposes (3rd and 5th round), 2 players for themselves (6th and 7th round).

Who can be the most valuable next tdl? I would say another big RHD or Scandinavians of any positions (but these who will play against men). For example, "random" Scandinavian center, selected at the end of 3rd round, can be with average season 2022/23 in SHL/Liiga traded as equivalent of late 2nd round pick. It is not unreal for Kaskimaki or Ronni to score 20P in 50 GP next season.

So I would say:
3rd round pick... Scandinavian, probably center (Kaskimaki, Ronni). I assume decent big RHDs will be gone until that pick.
5th round pick... another Scandinavian, probably D-man (Laakso, Engstrom, Nordberg, Salin, Soderbom...)
6th round pick... BPA or overage RW (Maggio, Hayes, Stefan, Kurth...)
7th round pick (pick 224 or 225)... wild card. I would say big D-man. Overagers Kasper Larsen, Samuel Mayer and Marc Lavoie come to mind. I also know 1st time eligible RD Chase Pauls from Lethbridge who I have not seen on any rankings. He is 6ft4-6ft5, 215-230 lbs, 22P/68GP. From what I've been able to see in season 2020/21 he was slow and I don't know if now he is faster. But some random GM will want him in a trade as equivalent of at least 5th round pick. He also scored half of his points in last 10-ish games, when in hunt for playoff spot team was on fire.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 15, 2022 at 2:36 p.m.
Thread: 2022 Predictions - Past Trends over Rankings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mmhawk23</b></div><div>This is a tricky one. I had heard from a friend in the industry he starting having health issues well in advance, then ultimately the diagnosis, and unclear what was causing his pre-diagnosis drop. I'm sure GMs have / are vetting what exactly was going on there, but I just don't know enough. So absolutely, my statement is giving him a very sizeable benefit of doubt on why he declined. Could be wrong and may be non-illness related play drop in which case you're right. Glad I'm not the GM who has to evaluate this situation, it sucks all around and I'd hate to be making a decision on whether a kid got worse or if a kid was genuinely sick, it sucks.</div></div>

I would add something else to that.

Miroshnichenko is coming from the same system as Trikozov. It's farm system of KHL's franchise Avantgard Omsk. It's should be just an average system, but they are doing really well as of lately. From the same system are coming NJD's 2019 pick Gritsyuk (part of Russian Olympics team, rookie of the year in KHL) and CBJ's Chinakhov from 2020 draft. They are also champions in U-17. Next big name from that team will be LHD Gulyayev in 2023 draft, but that's another story.

Comparing Miroshnichenko and Trikozov to Chinakhov I would say both are capable to outperform Chinakhov. I am high on Trikozov from what I've seen in MHL's playoffs, but healthy Miroshnichenko has even higher upside (if stats holds any value). Miroshnichenko was decent in VHL, where Trikozov wasn't quite ready yet.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 9, 2022 at 5:42 p.m.
Thread: Calgary Flames Draft Board
It's very likely they will try to trade down with their no. 59. So 2x3rds or 1x3rd and 1x4th round picks instead of no. 59 is possible.

I agree they need size the most, especially on forwards. They have Coronato (right wing) in their system, so that might not be their priority. Another RD would help.

I suspect they will try to win now. In that sense selecting overagers, including double and even triple overagers, is not excluded.

I mostly agree on 1st pick. It should be BPA big forward or D-man, preferebly RHD. I would give an edge to RHD, because above-average big forwards are easier to draft than above-average RHDs.

In middle round/rounds (it depends on the number of picks, as mentioned they might trade down or try to acquire additional pick in exchange for one in 2023 draft) they could target interesting overagers:
1. Double-overager Benjamin King, 6ft2-6ft3 RW/C from Red Deer, 2nd scorer in WHL.
2. Double-overager Logan Morrison, right-shot C from Hamilton in finale of OHL.
3. Older one-time overager Kyle Jackson, 6ft2 LW/C from North Bay (OHL).
4. Older one-time overager Matt Maggio, RW from Windsor in finale of OHL.
5. Older one-time overager Avery Hayes , C/RW from Hamilton in finale of OHL.
... or your guy Tucker Robertson ;)

In 7th round they could go off board with KHL players. At the moment there are two interesting triple-overagers without contracts for the next season available:
1. Sergei Telegin, 5ft11 LD, member of Russians on the Olympics.
2. Danil Bashkirov, 6ft3 C.
Russian overagers and double-overagers are less interesting in context of trying to win now. I will not write them down, there are just too many names, so it doesn't make any sense. There are also other interesting triple-overagers, but at the moment all under contract for at least another year.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 8, 2022 at 1:25 p.m.
Thread: Buffalo Sabres Draft Board
If Slafkovsky or Jiricek would still be there at no. 9, BUF would probably slaughter a goat to honor hockey gods.

I would argue BUF can add another C. All of their notable C-prospects are already in the NHL. So big C in one of their top 4 picks looks like desirable option.

I think with no. 9 pick they should select their BPA or at least BPA forward. If that means Kemell, Lambert, Nazar, Savoie, Kasper etc., it's fine. I would be slightly surprised if Gauthier would be available at no. 9, which could mean one power-forward less available.

Geekie could be available at. no. 16, same with Howard. At least one of them should be there. Another available LW candidate could be Ohgren. I can't imagine all three of them would be gone by no. 16. "Non-Nemec&amp;Jiricek" RHDs look like a reach at this spot, despite Chesley is probable 1st rounder.

No. 28 and no. 41 picks could/should strictly address team's needs. Assuming they would pick 2 forwards with their first two selections, Chesley looks like decent selection if he is still available. Another candidate could be Luneau. Otherwise they can add another forward. At least one of Nyman/Gaucher should be available at no. 28.

I would lock no. 41 pick for RHD they like, preferebly big(ger) one. Candidates could be Luneau, Rinzel, Lamoureux, Warren, Fisher.

Of average-sized or smaller RHDs, some will fall to 3rd round and lower. Kyrou, Nelson, Havelid, Casey, Salomonsson, Kulonummi etc., candidates are numerous. If BUF is sold on one available at no. 74, they should select him. It's fine if that means 3 RHDs in first 5 selections. They will not be ready at the same time. In fact, it is unlikely all 3 would become significant NHLers.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 6, 2022 at 12:55 a.m.
Thread: Boston Bruins Draft Board
Sadly I think Hughes, Bystedt and Beck will all be gone before no. 54. All three did well (or even excellent) at the NHL Combine fitness testing. I also doubt Sykora and Warren would be available in 4th round, but you never know.

Of the players you mentioned, Ingram could be available at no. 54 and vice versa Thornton should be available at no. 91. In fact plenty of smaller LDs will be available in 3rd and 4th round.

For Buchelnikov I have smaller red flag here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-1l54WE5KQ This was his last game of the season. At 1:16:40 (after the clip you might like/hate his opponent Yevseyev, another 2022 draft prospect) is a contact that caused his injury. It happens, but from 2:03:12 to 2:03:18 there is a short clip of Buchelnikov off the ice. It wasn't that bad, nothing was broken, but anyway he didn't play again in the playoffs. His team won that series from deficit and won in finale against CSKA's youth affiliate, Krasnaya Armiya.
For me that is a red flag. He is fragile, despite huge offensive potential. I would not touch him before 5th round.