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a1979

Goodbye79
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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 27, 2023 at 2:11 a.m.
Thread: Not Popular
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Gronk9911</b></div><div>This is the difference between analytics and having a brain, if you think Bouchard is better than Pietrangelo you have absolutely no clue about the game of hockey.</div></div>

Never once did I say Bouchard is better than Pietrangelo? I said, based on his offensive and defensive metrics (among others), Bouchard compares and projects to be a player Pietrangelo-esque. They play a similar game, plain and simple. Bouchard is only 23 and has lots to learn before he gets to that level, obviously.

Young players always get compared to established NHL players. Recently: Bedard to Kane, Fantilli to MacKinnon, Carlsson to Barkov, etc. And think back to the Draisaitl to Kopitar comparisons. It's a natural part of scouting and player assessments. Analytically inclined front offices use statistical models to assess prospects by using their production across their development years and comparing it to existing NHLers developmental years to create comparisons between them. Take a look at teams like the Avalanche, Hurricanes, and Lightning and how many data scientists, data engineers, and other data-driven positions they hire for within their front offices and then take a glance at their regular season, playoff, and draft pick history in recent years and connect the dots for me.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 21, 2023 at 2:37 p.m.
Thread: Not Popular
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Gronk9911</b></div><div>Nice try.

Karlsson had a 50% goal share 5v5

He literally pushes the river and scores at a ridiculous rate this isn’t a lucky year thing either, in the last 5 plus season his 5 on 5 numbers blow other Dman out of the water.
Bouchard has had 2 months of a season of PP time and is sheltered huge plus sheltered with another Dman who’s better defensively than he is.
Fact is you have zero idea what kind of defensemen Bouchard actually is.
Not to mention, but EK plays on a terrible team, Bouchard is run out with 97 or 29 and the Oilers are a SC contending team.
Also, it doesn’t matter that Bouchard is 21-22-23-24-25 the Oilers are down to 2-3 years, if they don’t win a cup in that window it won’t matter who the defender is.</div></div>

Yes, 50.00 GF% is what is stated in the stats I presented to you. And a 50% goal share is not elite in any way, regardless of how good or bad the team you are playing on is. Elite players put up strong numbers regardless of their situation. Karlsson, at one point, was one of the best (if not the best) of his generation and I won't deny that.

Between 2020-2021 through 2022-2023, of d-men of played 500+ minutes, Karlsson ranks 91st in CF%, 160th in GF%, 99th in xGF%, 72nd in SCF%, and 78th in HCDF%. Do those numbers scream elite to you? They don't scream top pairing d-man to me. Nor do they scream $11.5 million.

So, lets compare those 5v5 rankings to Bouchard's over the same time period:

Between 2020-2021 through 2022-2023, Bouchard ranks 13th in CF%, 101st in GF%, 19th in xGF%, 34th in SCF%, and 42nd in HDCF% - all of which are better than Karlsson's numbers.

Bouchard puts up strong 5v5 numbers and strong powerplay numbers.

I do know what kind of defenseman Bouchard is, he is extremely comparable to Stanley Cup winning d-man, Alex Pietrangelo (according to JFresh, his closest comparable player based on advanced metrics).

Regardless of his Norris, despite him playing on a bad San Jose Sharks team, Erik Karlsson is not the defenseman that the Oilers need to get them over the hump. Goalscoring is not an issue with this roster, and with Karlssons one dimensional, pure offence game, I don't see how he would solve the Oilers greatest issue. That being, defensive zone coverage, limiting chances, and keeping goals against down.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 20, 2023 at 3:21 p.m.
Thread: Not Popular
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Gronk9911</b></div><div>Except a Norris….

Listen, 5v5 EK blows Bouchard out of the water, go look at EK on ice with every line then go look at what he was when he wasn’t on the ice, it’s like SJ iced 2 different teams.
Defensively EK is better and Offensively he’s better.
Not to mention Bouchard is sheltered with a superior partner.

You can have EK for far cheaper, giving the Oilers more money to build a deeper team. Lock another 9M D-man on the roster and see what happens if he struggles.
Bye-bye McDavid bye-bye Draisaitl</div></div>

A d-man putting up 100 points is impressive, but the Norris is meant to go to the best all-around defenseman and that is not what EK was or is...not even close. EK is essentially a forward player defence.

If you want to talk 5v5 metrics...lets look at the stats:

Bouchard in 22-23: 56.95 CF%, 53.66 GF%, 57,68 xGF%, 58.24 SCF%, 59.61 HDCF%.
Karlsson in 22-23: 53.59 CF%, 50.00 GF%, 53.46 xGF%, 54.61 SCF%, 55.23 HDCF%.

Simply put, Bouchard is superior in every single advanced metric. Yes, Bouchard played fewer minutes but he is only 23 years old and isn't even in his prime, whereas Karlsson is years removed from his prime.

Also, Bouchard only played with Ekholm for the last couple months of the regular season. He played the majority of his minutes this past season with Broberg and Kulak (prior to the TDL).

Mike Grier has already said that he is not willing to retain as much money on an EK trade as you've proposed in this thread...so getting him on the books for $6 million is likely impossible.

Thus, is EK really cheaper? And even if he is, EK is going to be 37 years old when that contract ends. Is an $8-9 million (assuming ~30% retention of EK's salary) 37 year old pure offensive d-man going to help McDavid and Draisaitl stay or win a cup? Nope.

Take a look at that right hand side of the Oilers defence that you've proposed here. Karlsson, Ceci, and Desharnais. That is easily bottom 10 in the league for right hand d-men depth.

Bouchard isn't going to the reason as to why McDrai leave or not. And even if they did leave, I would rather have a young d-man in Bouchard on the team to rebuild with than a washed up, injury prone d-man in Karlsson.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 16, 2023 at 6:37 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 16, 2023 at 5:07 p.m.
Thread: Not Popular
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Gronk9911</b></div><div>Explain why? Bouchard next contract is going to be Nurse esq; he’s asking for more than 4M right now.
You have 3 years left, that’s it, actually it’s only 2. Right now Karlsson is better at 5v5 and offensively.
Paying him more than a better defensmen is inexcusable.</div></div>

Even if Bouchard's contract is in the 8-9 million range, the cap is going to be going up significantly in the next 2-3 seasons. Karlsson put up one strong offensive season (despite 4+ down years), it's highly unlikely he puts up those totals again. And even if he put up those totals again, it's not really what the Oilers need. They were 1st in GF this year, and Karlsson brings nothing more to the table defensively than Bouchard does. You're essentially giving up one of the best up-and-coming young d-men in the league for an 33 year old injury prone d-man who just had an outlier year.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 30, 2022 at 11:32 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 11, 2022 at 1:35 a.m.
Thread: Sicko Sens
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Copenhagen</b></div><div>It doesnt matter what you think. You dont just dump good players for a 4th round pick. Like come on.</div></div>

Barrie being a good player and Barrie not having a spot on the Oilers roster are two things that can be true simultaneously. Besides being the PP quarterback, something Bouchard has proven he is capable of doing, what does Barrie provide on-ice? His 5v5 offensive results are lackluster and, in most cases, he is a black hole defensively. 5.5% of the salary cap is going towards our 3rd pairing RD who can't hold his own neither offensively or defensively at 5v5 without Kulak glued to his side and whose spot on the powerplay is about to be taken by a younger, cheaper, and more offensively-gifted Bouchard. You really can't expect a team to take on that contract, let alone pay the Oilers for taking that contract. Thus, the Oilers would be lucky to fetch a 4th rounder for him. That 4.5 mil in space, like I said, is far more valuable than Barrie if spent to add a solid forward and a defensive d-man.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 10, 2022 at 4:20 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 10, 2022 at 2:10 a.m.