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bcooke

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May 3, 2023
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Colorado Avalanche
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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 26, 2023 at 4:37 p.m.
Thread: Toews Extension Guess
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dru34</b></div><div>Why are so many people always trying to put Landy back in the line up so fast?
The specific surgery he just had will take the entirety of 2 years of recovery time for his new cartilage to fully mature before he can even try to push himself.
Trying to rush his recovery sooner then 2 years all but guarantees he'll never play another game in the NHL again since his new cartilage can't physically be fully matured faster.
23/24 = 0 games, 24/25 = 0 games, 25/26 he can finally train and push himself to try and get back to NHL ready.

TL DR don't need to trade Manson, put Landy back on LTIR .</div></div>

This is an extremely pessimistic viewpoint. Everything I have seen was a 12-18 month recovery time which would be somewhere around December of '24. In that case, you have to plan on him coming off LTIR - which means one of the 4M+ salaries is getting dumped if you resign Toews. Better to do it around or before the time of the extension to maximize your return on the trade.

Now I'm not the biggest optimist on Landy's surgery, but if he can't return for at least a portion of 24-25, then I would expect it be more likely he retires (spends the rest of the contract on LTIR) than to play again starting in 25-26.

Because of both of those reasons, I wouldn't expect a Toews extension to get signed until after this season. At that point you have a much clearer picture on when/if Landy will return. That also allows you to trade one of Manson/Girard at the draft if you need to and clear room for the Toews extension to get done before July 1.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 26, 2023 at 4:20 p.m.
Thread: Toews Extension Guess
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Starting at the age of 30,,, eight years seems like awful term. Getting rid of Manson at his full cap is going to be costly.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Anus_McLeod</b></div><div>Agree on the first point. I don't think there is any chance Colorado goes 8 years. They may swallow and do 7, but 8 is extremely unlikely imo.

On Manson, I think it really depends on what he does this season. If he can stay healthy and play well, I think they get a 3rd or 4th for him. If not... Well, I don't really want to think about that. But maybe the Ducks take him back for free or something.</div></div>

I agree as well. But 6 years from now, the entire core (excluded Makar and Byram) will be 33+. So approaching the end of true cup contender ability for guys like MacK/Rants/Val. But if the core is still going strong, the contract is structured in a way that you could send him to a cash strapped team if you needed to.

And Manson's value next summer really depends on what he does this year. If he isn't healthy again it could be expensive to move and they may have to move Girard instead. Depending on which one they can actually get a return on.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 25, 2023 at 2:08 p.m.
Thread: Love Toews but Dunn deal makes him unkeepable
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ArakinSkywalker</b></div><div>I disagree with you on the dunn deal. I think it makes him more affordable. Dunn has just put up more points than toews has, he's 2 years younger, so it's almost a late bridge deal in his career. Toews next contract will pretty much be his last one unless he takes a 1 year deal for some reason. But i think it gives us a ~7.5mil average over say 8 years. Now there would have to be a lot of manipulation of the roster over the next two years to make it work but i think it's more affordable now.</div></div>

The last year of Dunn's 4 year deal will be his age 30 season. The first year of Toews next deal will be his age 30 season. Dunn's AAV should put a cap on what Toews makes - especially if Toews' deal goes into ages 36-38. Not sure if Toews would take it but this would be ideal:

8 years x $6.9375M AAV
First 5 years average 7.5M with full NMC
Last 3 years average 6M with M-NTC
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 23, 2023 at 10:29 a.m.
Thread: Kovalenko is a Thing
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Avsfantrumpetman</b></div><div>Totally get that this is a strategy, but not sure with our injury history its a strategy I want to employ next year. But you definitely might be right.</div></div>

It's a strategy they have to employ this year. Because they are using LTIR, they won't accumulate capspace. So you field a 23 man roster on paper to open the season creating a 7M LTIR pool with Landeskog's contract. 2 of those players are guys that can pass to the AHL either by clearing waivers (Olofsson) or because they don't need waivers (Meyers/JLF) and then you have the 1.5M in LTIR pool money available for call ups or to use at the deadline. If they have a lot of injuries, they can run a 19 skater lineup for a night and then use emergency callups that allow them to go over the cap to field a full 20.

Edit: We saw them use the emergency recall on Meyers and Hunt all the time last year. And several other AHL players.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 18, 2023 at 12:23 p.m.
Thread: What I would do to end the summer
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>McRanteskog</b></div><div>Chill chill chill homie.
Are you Meyers agent or something?

All I was saying is that Malgin is worth more than whatever Meyers gets. The reason COL didn’t qualify Malgin is because he had arbitration rights and given his bump in offensive production, COL would have lost that arbitration. By not qualifying him, it leaves the door open to still sign him to a figure COL was comfortable with whilst avoiding putting themselves at the mercy of an Arbitrator by qualifying him.</div></div>

Lol. Definitely not Meyers agent. Just disagree on the value of the players. An undersized wing that ended up back in the swiss league just holds less value to me than a center with solid underlying analytics. I'm surprised that Meyers hasn't gotten a deal done yet as he hasn't done enough to show he deserves more than his 875k QO. Just guessing he is going to need slightly more money either on the NHL or AHL end of the contract. His cap hit the last 2 years has been 912.5k. Expecting a deal to get done somewhere around 1M +/- 100k.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 18, 2023 at 11:23 a.m.
Thread: What I would do to end the summer
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Avsfantrumpetman</b></div><div>I think they were worried about a number above 1.5 or 2 in arbitration. Look at what Tampa ended up handing Jeannot. Yeah, Malgin hasn't been consistent but he's now got two seasons where he's scored more than 10 goals in the NHL. That's still worth something. I think a deal right at 1 is still fair for him, and frankly what he showed us last year tells me that we don't need those minor league options for him. In fact, I'm starting to wonder if the 2-way deal is what's holding up Meyers. I'll bet CMAC wants that minor league option for him and his camp doesn't want that.</div></div>

On Meyers - I would guess its the AHL salary that is holding the deal up. Would guess he is pushing for a deal that guarantees his full NHL salary in the AHL.

On Malgin - He was so bad the 3 years after that 11 goal season in FLA that he ended up back in the Swiss league. I like what he provides as a depth forward, but he is really small and shouldn't be more than a 13th/14th F for the Avs. The most I'm paying for that is league min and out clause to go back to Europe if he doesn't want to play in the AHL. If he can get more somewhere else, then I'm not not going to lose any sleep.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 18, 2023 at 11:04 a.m.
Thread: What I would do to end the summer
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>M96N29</b></div><div>I'd like to see Malgin back. Cheap and seemed to fit the system so not a lot of uncertainty there. Ideally, we'd squeeze in a depth d-guy, too.</div></div>

I wouldn't mind seeing another D get added, but they probably need to have a contract similar to Hunt's so that they can bounce between the AHL and NHL. But I'm not sure there is room. Avs currently have 7 D under contract. Eagles have 8, and Hanzel is looking at either an ELC or an overage year - likely depending on if the Avs want any of those AHL guys to move down to the ECHL.

Expecting Hunt and Malinski to fill the 7/8 D roles and be call ups when needed. Hunt can be swapped with Olofsson as often as needed if the Avs can get him through waivers. Would also have the option of dropping Meyers down if he struggles and play Suter at 4C.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 18, 2023 at 10:06 a.m.