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dilldoughs

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Mar. 3, 2021
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Edmonton Oilers
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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 9 at 4:14 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 9 at 4:11 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 25 at 4:29 p.m.
Thread: The Only Way
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dilldoughs</b></div><div>Do you think Caps would want 2024 2nd + 2026 2nd to part with Dowd/Lindgren? Doubtful. Maybe if EDM is moving the 1st, they get Caps to retain on Dowd like you mentioned, to make things a bit easier next year. I still think WSH would ask for a 1st for both players, and from an EDM perspective that pick won't be helping for the next ~3 years so I say move it for players in positions of need, with good cap/term. Dowd/Lindgren fit that quite well imo. Maybe it's a different prospect than Niemo, and a lower pick than 3rd with less conditions, but to me this is pretty close to fair on both sides :)</div></div>

They can ask for whatever they want on the market, it's a matter of whether or not they get it.

The noise surrounding Habs fans and Monahan absolutely fetching a first at the deadline led me to deep-dive what equivalent players went for last year. Rental #3C's go for a second round pick on average. Dowd wouldn't be a rental but he's also very much a #4C. Rental #4C's range from a 4th round pick to a pair of 5ths from what I could note. If I just double THAT value to account for Dowd having an extra season on the end of his deal, unretained one would be looking at something in the ballpark of a 3rd and a C-prospect. A second round pick covers the bill in full on a retained Dowd, or at the very least should and sentiment is clouding the judgment of those who would ask for excessively more than that. More or less why I would argue that Coleman and Goodrow are poor comparisons: those were top-nine pieces (when they were moved) with term. A second round pick and a crapshoot prospect is more than market enough.

Likewise, which team is objectively close enough to being a legitimate Stanley Cup contender to shed a first on their #4C? Boston and Colorado both want a top-six center, Florida and Dallas probably want a top LHD. Edmonton has need for a 1B goaltender, legitimate Ceci upgrade, and one could split hairs on whether or not they should prioritize a #2RW or #4C.

Lindgren will never fetch a first, term be damned. The only time first round picks are exchanged for goalers are when they happen to be incidental parts of a larger deal. I made it to the summer of 2015 before giving up on my search to find any goaltenders that had been directly traded for a first round pick at the deadline and could only find Fleury for a conditional first. Besides that, the closest we get to this is Kuemper four days following the 2021 draft. Lindgren has been a good piece for the Caps this year but doesn't come with the name power that Fleury did nor does he have the resume.

Realistically the only thing that would dissuade Washington from taking the 2024 and 2026 Oilers' seconds is having to wait until 2026 to collect on the second pick.

I'll clarify: I don't necessarily hate using the 2024 1st but my priority for that pick is to upgrade on Ceci. If that cannot happen I don't mind using it plus the 2025 3rd to acquire both Dowd and Lindgren, I just want full value for that trade. A first and a third, plus whatever minor prospect is sent out, far exceeds that ballpark pair of seconds mark, even if we're looking at retention on Dowd. Hence my ask of late picks offset by the same range that Edmonton's picks would be offset by.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 18 at 7:00 p.m.
Thread: Ken Hollands Last Hurrah
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PurpleHippo</b></div><div>I searched into it and this is my interpretation, may be wrong but nothing indicates that I am.

If we trade Brown we are moving his contract, Performance Bonus as well, with it. We have to pay next year since we're cap strapped and Browns PB is under 7.5% of total cap, however a team like CHI or NSH has cap space and can allow Browns BP to hit their cap this season. We also pay a performance bonus essentially whenever meaning EDM can pay the full 3.225M owed in actual dollars.

Essentially if we included him in the CHI trade at deadline, EDM would free up ~3.2M next season as Browns Bonus would move with him.
Chicago would have the cap hit of 4M for Brown this season, but they don't care since they have ~17M in cap space right now.
EDM would still pay a majority of Browns contract, ~3.75M and Chicago .25M (if done at deadline). Maybe we toss in a 6th as well to take him but it's a HUGE benefit to us to move Brown at deadline.</div></div>

Your interpretation of Brown's performance bonus is accurate. What not accurate is your take on what it takes to move Brown off the roster. No GM in the league is going to "gift" the Oilers $3.25m in cap space next season for a 6th. Moving Brown will cost at least a 3rd - maybe even a 2nd. Freeing up cap space in this league doesn't come for free.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 18 at 2:14 p.m.
Thread: Ken Hollands Last Hurrah
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dilldoughs</b></div><div>Other option is Fleury, for probably the same price and still under the cap. Chance at a cup &gt; old grudge though for Mrazek maybe?</div></div>

IIRC Mrazek was a RFA and Kenny gave him a lowball offer.

At least in Mrazek's mind it was.

Mrazek took him to Arbitration and they ended up settling on a 2 year deal at the last minute.

Holland used his press dummies like St. James, Khan and Kulfan to throw dirt on Mrazek any time he could.

Kenny loved his son Jimmy Howard because he'd sign any offer Kenny gave him.

Kenny even exposed Mrazek in the Vegas expansion draft but McPhee took Tommy Nosek instead.

Kenny ended up trading Mrazek to Philly for basically nothing before the trade deadline.
Forum: NHLOct. 1, 2023 at 8:50 a.m.
Thread: What if NHL had a Shohei Ohtani of its own
What if NHL had its own Shohei Ohtani? What would that look like?

For those not familiar, Ohtani is a baseball player who both pitches and plays in the field and hits. And he excels at both. Finding field players in baseball who can pitch and vice versa has been extremely rare in modern baseball and usually when they arise, they are forced to pick one of the other. Ohtani has successfully built his career based off of pitching in the rotation, then hitting on his off days (when other starting pitchers are resting). This year, he is leading the American League in home runs while on those “rest days”. Here are his Wins Above Replacement statistics for last few shears as a pitcher and a hitter:

PITCHING: WAR (GA -- W-L -- ERA -- WHIP -- K/9)

-- 2021: +3.0 (23 -- 9-2 -- 3.18 -- 1.09 -- 10.77)
-- 2022: +5.6 (28 -- 15-9 -- 2.33 -- 1.01 -- 11.87)
-- 2023: +2.4 (23 -- 10-5 -- 3.14 -- 1.06 -- 11.39)
-- 3-year: +10.9 (74 -- 34-16 -- 2.84 -- 1.05 -- 11.39)

-- 3y Ranks: 12th (51st -- 16th -- 6th -- 12th -- 6th)

But WAR for pitching is agnostic of fielding, so a more accurate measure may be RA/9 WAR which isolates the pitchers performance:

-- 2021: +3.9 (31st)
-- 2022: +6.2 (6th)
-- 2023: +3.8 (21st)
-- 3-year: +13.9 (7th)

HITTING: WAR (PA -- HR -- RBI -- AVG -- OBP -- SLG -- OPS)
-- 2021: +5.1 (639 -- 46 -- 100 -- .257 -- .372 -- .592 -- .965)
-- 2022: +3.8 (666 -- 34 -- 95 -- .273 -- .356 -- .519 -- .875)
-- 2023: +6.6 (539 -- 44 -- 95 -- .304 -- .412 -- .654 -- 1.066)
-- 3-year: +15.5 (1904 -- 124 -- 296 -- .277 -- .379 -- .585 -- .964)

-- 3y Ranks: 11th (19th -- 4th -- 14th -- 37th -- 9th -- 2nd -- 2nd)

Just looking a WAR as direction comparison, his ranking for pitching / hitting for each season:

-- 2021: 31st / 18th
-- 2022 6th: / 43rd
-- 2023: 21st / 5th
-- 3-year: 7th / 11th


NHL EQUIVALENT

So imagine if an NHL player played a portion of their games as a goalie and the rest as a skater? I am making the assumption that various facets of each sport would be matched up as the following…

-- Pitching = Goaltending
-- Defense = Defense
-- Hitting = Forwards

Here would be the goalies in similar rankings for WAR for pitching for each season:

Pitching equivalent (goalies):
-- 2020-21: Antti Raanta
-- 2021-22: Thatcher Demko
-- 2022-22: Sergei Bobrovsky
-- 3-year: Thatcher Demko

And here would be the forwards that would match up to hitting:

Hitting equivalent (forwards)
-- 2020-21: Aleksander Barkov
-- 2021-22: Matthew Boldy
-- 2022-23: Auston Matthews
-- 3-year: Jason Robertson

So imagine if an NHLer were good enough to play goalie like Thatcher Demko in net and score like Jason Robertson as a forward? That would be hockey’s version of Shohei Ohtani.
Forum: NHL TradesMar. 1, 2023 at 9:58 a.m.
Thread: (NSH/EDM) - Ekholm and 6th for Barrie, Schaefer, 1st and 4th
I think this trade just makes a lot of sense. Most big deals are seldom fair, there is usually just too much going on to not like it better for one team than another, but I think this is pretty bang on.

Nasville is fully committed to a tear down and rebuild, and getting out from under a contract that might not age well while getting a 1st without big retention is a pretty nice piece of work. You take a cap dump in Barrie, but if they are committed to the tear down, he can likely be flipped in the offseason or next deadline with money retained and get an additional asset. Barrie isn't worth his current salary, but some team will likely be willing to give up a little something for a power play specialist of Barrie's calibre if he only cost half as much, and if it was his final year on his deal.

Edmonton gets the exact type of defensemen they need. Their window isn't necessarily closing, but if they don't show McDavid they are serious, I think there is a real risk that he won't re-sign, and with how wide open the west is, this is as good a year to go for it. Ekholm's contract is probably either fair for his value, or maybe he's a little overpaid, but he's a great fit for their needs, and definitely less overpaid than Barrie is right now.

I really don't think there was more to get if you are Nashville, unless you retain a much larger percentage of his cap hit, so I think this was a creative solution, and I think Edmonton probably got the most cost effective (in terms of assets) trade still available for an impactful D. Win-win.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 31, 2022 at 4:45 p.m.