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phillyjabroni
Member Since
Mar. 8, 2017
Favourite Team
Philadelphia Flyers
Forum Posts
10392
Posts per Day
4.0
POSTS
THREADS
LIKES
ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 20, 2023 at 10:02 a.m.
Thread:
Where to move Frost
I wouldnt trade Lilly just because they need him more.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 18, 2023 at 11:13 a.m.
Thread:
Addressing some needs
I can't see Seattle being interested in that. Given the difference in age, contract, and performance, Larsson is a much more valuable player than Brodie at this point, and an irreplaceable piece of the Kraken blue line. Niemelä, Robertson, and a 3rd/6th round pick swap doesn't really bridge the value gap between them in my eyes, especially if Seattle is retaining salary for this year and next. Besides, the Kraken are still looking to win and compete long term, so they'd rather just keep the younger and better player.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 15, 2023 at 11:31 a.m.
Thread:
Murray back is it possible
I dont think you can just add an LTIR player to a roster and have it create space like that. You would have to fit Murray under the cap first then put him on LTIR to be able to get cap saving.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 14, 2023 at 11:04 a.m.
Thread:
Girard TK 3-Team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>phillyjabroni</b></div><div>No, I’m saying I’m assuming those are the only players on the roster next year and the other players - Gryzlek, Forbot, Shattenkirk all walk and are on other teams.</div></div>
Lol, got it. Comprehension before morning coffee is sketchy at times.
We’ll just go with Mitchell, Walsh, Regula and a cheap 3rd pair free agent LD to fill out the bottom of the D.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 14, 2023 at 12:05 a.m.
Thread:
Girard TK 3-Team
No.
Don’t want or need Girard.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 12, 2023 at 3:20 p.m.
Thread:
After tonights game
Flyers would likely be more interested in Boqvist than Peeke.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Oct. 9, 2023 at 4:58 p.m.
Thread:
Buffalo Sabres signed Rasmus Dahlin (8 Years / $11,000,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>phillyjabroni</b></div><div>Not to get too deep into the mathematical side of this, but I think its important to consider this deal in the broader context of what other players, such as Makar, Miro, and Q. Hughes signed back in 2021-22 to have a better understanding of the value of Dahlin's deal. We should consider the Present Value of all these deals, in their entirety, back in 2021-22 by discounting them back based on the annual cap increase YoY. For this purpose, I assumed a 4.79% growth in 2024-25 and 5.14% growth in 2025-26, and a constant 4.00% growth each year thereafter. Let's consider:
<strong>Miro Heiskanen</strong>
Present Value: $57,703,775
Term: 8 years
AAV: $7,212,972
<strong>Cale Makar</strong>
Present Value: $48,044,169
Term: 6 years
AAV: $8,007,362
<strong>Quinn Hughes</strong>
Present Value: $41,905,192
Term: 6 years
AAV: $6,984,199
When combining the bridge and long term deal of Dahlin, we can get a better picture of what this contract is worth:
<strong>Rasmus Dahlin</strong>
Present Value: $82,720,365
Term: 11 years
AAV: $7,520,033
We can see that Dahlin is right in line with other star defensemen, although on the higher end in terms of AAV. However, if we extrapolate and assume that the next contracts of Makar, Heiskanen, and Hughes all start with an initial Cap Hit % of 12% with a duration of 7 years, we can consider the value of these contracts:
<strong>Miro Heiskanen</strong>
Present Value: $114,345,394
Term: 15 years
AAV: $7,623,026
<strong>Cale Makar</strong>
Present Value: $104,685,789
Term: 13 years
AAV: $8,052,753
<strong>Quinn Hughes</strong>
Present Value: $98,546,812
Term: 13 years
AAV: $7,580,524
<strong>Rasmus Dahlin</strong>
Present Value: $82,720,365
Term: 11 years
AAV: $7,520,033
I think it is an accurate and fair assumption to consider Dahlin is the same category of skill and rank of these similar players. So even though the sticker shock is quite high, he is effectively the least expensive out of the other players under these assumptions. For reference, Makar and Miro are going to be pushing a minimum 12M-13M on the open market, while Dahlin will never see that day until 2032.</div></div>
Amazing contribution! Loved this mathematical breakdown. If you do these breakdowns often somewhere, I'd totally sign up to read it (maybe even with a paywall).
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 4, 2023 at 1:20 a.m.
Thread:
Sabres Continue Building
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Onlyfairtrades1</b></div><div>Easy no thanks for the Rangers.</div></div>
this is an easy yes lmfao
Forum:
NHL Signings
Oct. 3, 2023 at 12:10 p.m.
Thread:
Anaheim Ducks signed Trevor Zegras (3 Years / $5,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>phillyjabroni</b></div><div>Great signing for ANA, going to assume that final year is going to have a high QO. Extrapolating his numbers, if he averages ~80 points per year over the next 3 years, he’d be in similar contract comparable to PLD, Barzal, and Point. Next contract is probably going to look like 9.5M - 11M on an 8 year deal if his progression continues. If he stays as a 60 point player, going to come out cheaper but such is life.</div></div>
QO doesnt work like this anymore since last year. Old contracts have grand father clause, but new ones the QO is just the cap hit.
Forum:
Site Discussion
Oct. 2, 2023 at 1:35 p.m.
Thread:
Suggestions Megathread
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>phillyjabroni</b></div><div>Yeah I was thinking the number would be in the same style of the jersey (The Rangers numbers are very different compared to the Coyotes). I'm not expert on the web development side (other than basic HTML from a project) but what you said makes sense. Understand it wouldn't be a priority/time consuming with little benefit. Maybe a test run with one or two teams and some user community feedback would maybe make it worth it? Just spitballin, but I know DailyFaceoff has jerseys with player names/number and jersey format. Not sure how that is formatted though.</div></div>
They're all individual image files.
Forum:
Site Discussion
Oct. 2, 2023 at 12:47 p.m.
Thread:
Suggestions Megathread
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheFastAndTheFleuryous</b></div><div>I have a few questions about that idea.
1. What happens for trades? What font would they use — their original team’s, or the team to which they were traded? Also, what if two players have the same number in that scenario?
2. Free agents — what number would they get? Would they have the number that they had with their previous team — and again, what about if two players have the same number?
3. Some ACGMs use created players to simulate KHL signings (or the ACGM owner signing himself). What number would be chosen for that?
Overall, it’s not a bad idea, it just could use a couple tweaks.</div></div>
I really like the potential for this aesthetic but I think you're overthinking the issue:
1. Team logos don't change for a player acquired via trade, why should the jersey number? The contrast in logos should easily rectify the issue with same numbers.
2. Free agents aren't assigned a team logo when signed to the club, if the jersey number is tied to the team logo, they wouldn't get one anyways. Even traded-for-and-signed RFA's are left with the logoless namebar.
3. Created players are likewise unassigned a team logo when brought onto an AGM. This presents the same non-issue as the free agent case.
The only real challenge I could see is having to generate 900 some-odd individual image icons for every player active in the NHL this upcoming season. Not sure how simple layering two png's on an interactable web feature is (and keeping them there while a user clicks and drags).
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 2, 2023 at 12:18 a.m.
Thread:
Some Changes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>phillyjabroni</b></div><div>Would depend on how Podkolzin performs this year but I wouldn't mind trading the comp pick for him. I'm not sure where that pick will be but I assume it would be somewhere in the middle of the round? Either way, unless he tanks or doesn't have any improvements, I wouldn't really mind it.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Moss_Bucket</b></div><div>Flyers would consider it all depending how Pod's 2023-24 season goes.</div></div>
He's going to be in the AHL to start the season. Depends how the season goes but he may not see a ton of NHL ice time unless injuries or he plays great in AHL. Fortunately, there are some other solid prospects for him to play with in the Canucks system this season.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 1, 2023 at 8:02 p.m.
Thread:
NHL Pick Swap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>phillyjabroni</b></div><div>Basically PHI has the option to swap their worst 1st rounder with OTT's best first rounder. So if PHI owns picks 7 (their own) and 24 (FLA) and OTT owns picks 18 (their own) and 26 (BOS), the Flyers would swap picks 24, the worst of PHI's 1sts, with 18, the best of OTT's 1sts. But it could be that PHI owns picks 7 and 14 and OTT owns 18 and 26. Since PHI's worst pick is better than OTT's best, they wouldn't swap (why trade 14 for 18?). If that happens, the Flyers get a 2025 2nd and 2026 3rd instead</div></div>
Okay that makes much more sense haha cool idea
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 25, 2023 at 7:08 p.m.
Thread:
Where things appear to be heading right now
Honestly that isn’t a crusher of a deal, Tyler is a decent prospect but hasn’t been lights out, I could see him being a Solid tough depth piece, but nothing that would hurt losing.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 23, 2023 at 4:55 p.m.
Thread:
Ferraro Blockbuster
Love Ferraro but I’d do that deal today honestly
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 23, 2023 at 2:07 a.m.
Thread:
A trade I hope the Sabres dont make as a Leafs fan
Not a smart trade for Buffalo. Carter Hart has great potential but it hasn't showed despite 5 seasons under his belt. Devon Levi also has great potential and hasn't had a chance to show it. I am totally comfortable letting Levi be the #1 if he can prove it, if not we got a trio in goal to rotate. Konecny is a great player but not one I see Buffalo needing. Jack Quinn projects to be all he is and more.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 22, 2023 at 10:12 p.m.
Thread:
Final Moves
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TMLBRIAN</b></div><div>I like it for both teams to be honest.</div></div>
How could you like it for Ottawa?
You realize that is conceivably more than what the Sens got for Alex DeBrincat???
This is absolutely awful. I would not watch one more minute of Sens hockey until Dorion is far in the rear mirror.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 22, 2023 at 4:13 p.m.
Thread:
Rebuild season 1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMDannyB</b></div><div>I can confidently say that I would rather have the 1st round pick because it’s likely going to be earlier in the round than 19 lol. I’d also rather we get to draft our own player than take on a 22 year old</div></div>
It will not costs a 1st round pick to dump Joseph. I am confident in that. 2nd round pick is more than reasonable. Thompson + that 6th is easily worth a 2nd.
I like this deal for Philly. They need as many picks and decent prospects as possible. They won't hit on them all but they will hit on some. I would personally take a 2nd round pick though as well.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 21, 2023 at 12:44 p.m.
Thread:
Marner Must Go
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Moss_Bucket</b></div><div>On most occasions yeah, but I think losing both of our remaining retention slots for 2 years is a deal breaker. Those slots help get the most bang out of your buck every trade deadline, and it would cripple our bartering for a couple deadlines.</div></div>
Getting a potential superstar, and the equivalent of 3 first round picks is pretty good bang for your buck.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 19, 2023 at 7:09 p.m.
Thread:
Points expectations
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMDannyB</b></div><div>Okay man u clearly think every Rangers player is going to be amazing this year so good luck with that</div></div>
I don't think it, I have showed you my work to show you why this is actually VERY possible. I am curious to see how this is a statistical impossibility and if I have made a mistake in my work. I await your response in proving why a 1.2% increase amongst 100 shots cannot go in. The ball is in your court.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 18, 2023 at 10:48 a.m.
Thread:
Mediocre future
Honestly curious on your thought process.
The Kings wouldn't give up Clarke for any of Eichel, Helleybuck, or PLD. Why do you think LA would trade their best RD prospect since Drew Doughty (and a 1st on top of it) for Carter Hart?
And I ask that as a person who likes Carter Hart and thinks he gets a little too much grief on here. But he isn't on the level of any of the three listed above.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 18, 2023 at 1:07 p.m.
Thread:
The Flyers made an offer for both Pinto and Joseph per Anthony Di Marco
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mr_Canoehead</b></div><div>I haven't been following whats been happening with Pinto in the offseason. Is this just the usual RFA looking for a better deal from the team or does he not want to be in Ottawa (or Canada)?</div></div>
Sens want to keep him , he wants to stay. It’s just money at this point in a 1 year squeeze
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 18, 2023 at 12:05 p.m.
Thread:
Pinto
Nope this aint it
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 17, 2023 at 9:33 p.m.
Thread:
you cant handle the truth
No in what world is that a fair trade with the amount of comparables there are for the oilers also ceci>>>seeler
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 8, 2023 at 2:59 p.m.
Thread:
Hart to Vegas
Vegas isn’t doing that…hill and Thompson are the pairing. For a whopping 5.5 million together. We’ll ride with that
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