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rednwhite
Member Since
May 12, 2016
Favourite Team
Detroit Red Wings
Forum Posts
801
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 9, 2023 at 10:50 a.m.
Thread:
Another Disappointing Lottery
TK for Zadina, 2024 1st, 2023 2nd is what I have seen a lot and would do that
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 9, 2023 at 10:17 a.m.
Thread:
Another Disappointing Lottery
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rednwhite</b></div><div>I understand you are upset after last night but how has CBJ had the worst luck out of anyone? They aren't even listed in the top 5 in this article. https://thehockeywriters.com/red-wings-worst-draft-lottery-luck/</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>They really haven't been in the lottery that many times. AND I'd argue that in 2012 by not winning...they actually won because Yak was an Oiler.</div></div>
You're basing that off of what some amateur bloggers have come up with. Try this:
https://theathletic.com/4469516/2023/04/30/blue-jackets-draft-lottery-nhl/
5 expert mathematicians broke down the odds and results over the last 23 years and no team has had more chances at the top pick without winning than CBJ.
Here's a snippet in case you don't have a subscription:
"For most of the Blue Jackets’ existence, the NHL lottery rules stated that a club could move up only four spots via the lottery. So any team that finished higher than the fifth-worst record couldn’t land the No. 1 pick. Six times between 2001-13, the Jackets fell into this category.
But even in those seasons, the Blue Jackets still had a percentage chance to win the lottery and move higher in the lineup, and didn’t.
When you take all of the non-playoff seasons into account, according to our experts, the Blue Jackets have had a 77.3 percent chance to win the lottery at least once in those 16 opportunities.
In nine previous seasons, the Blue Jackets have finished low enough in the standings to have a chance at winning the first pick. Yes, they had a shot at Alex Ovechkin (2004), Sidney Crosby (2005), Auston Matthews (2016), etc.
This season, at 13.5 percent, marks the fourth-best chance the Blue Jackets have had at landing the No. 1 pick through the years.
In 2012, they had the best odds at 25.0 percent, but slid from No. 1 to No. 2. In 2002, the Jackets had an 18.8 percent chance to win the lottery, but slid from No. 2 to No. 3. In 2003, they had a 14.2 percent chance, but fell from No. 3 to No. 4.
When you consider all of the seasons in which the Blue Jackets could have landed the No. 1 pick, according to our experts, the Blue Jackets have had a 69.6 percent chance of doing so at least once.
If Anaheim wins this year’s lottery — they have the best chance at 25.5 percent — the Blue Jackets will long lament their 3-2 overtime win over the Penguins late this season, which moved them out of the pole position for the lottery.
Still, they head into this year’s lottery with the same optimism as ever. If the ping pong balls bounce their way, they could win Bedard. And if they don’t?
Well, according to our experts, another loss in the draft lottery this year would only make the Blue Jackets’ numbers (obviously) worse. They would have had a 73.7 percent chance likelihood of winning the No. 1 pick when you put this year’s chances into the mix.
Moser, the data scientist from Buffalo, took all of this a step further. He ran simulations for all of the draft lotteries dating back to 2001 to determine which franchise across the entire NHL has had the most “expected” lottery wins based on their yearly finish in the standings.
“This way,” Moser said, “we could tell just how ‘unlucky’ the Blue Jackets are compared to their peers.”
There are four teams in the same realm with the most “expected” lottery wins: Edmonton (1.4), Columbus and Florida (1.38), and Buffalo (1.37). What stands out is that Edmonton has won four lotteries. Florida has won three. Buffalo has won two. Columbus has won zero.
The Blue Jackets, Moser said, have been the NHL’s most unlucky club when it comes to the draft lottery with 1.38 fewer lottery wins than expected, or -1.38. The other clubs with a similar beef to the Blue Jackets are Arizona (-1.08), Los Angeles (-0.85), Ottawa (-0.75), and Carolina (-0.74).
So, there it is. The Blue Jackets being unlucky in the lottery isn’t just a feeling. It’s a fact."
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 9, 2023 at 9:55 a.m.
Thread:
Another Disappointing Lottery
Konecny -> Something like NYI 1st rounder, 1 of the 3 2023 2nds, Red Savage for TK and a 2023 3rd
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 9, 2023 at 8:58 a.m.
Thread:
Another Disappointing Lottery
I do feel a bit for DET fans. Which is saying something because DET is still CHI's rival. Don't care what the NHL did to try to change that. It'll always be that way to me. With that said, Stevie Y is the best GM in the game. DET will be fine.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 6, 2023 at 9:10 a.m.
Thread:
Pettersson
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rednwhite</b></div><div>Edvinsson projects to be a similar player to Seider and has 3 more years left on his entry level deal whereas Seider will need a 8-9 mil extension in the near future.</div></div>
The only issue is, That Vancouver is like Detroit they're deep at LD but not RD. So Seider would still entice them more than Edvinsson would. And the 8-9 mil aside pretty sure vancouver would still want Seider ahead of Edvinsson.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 9, 2023 at 2:25 p.m.
Thread:
Detroit again because I am also bored
Agree that Schmaltz is a RW over a C. Would be a good add, but I think ARI is going to get to a point of financial desperation that the BOS 1st + Johansson/prospect might get it done.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 9, 2023 at 10:10 a.m.
Thread:
Detroit
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rednwhite</b></div><div>All solid options. Not a huge fan of Dumba, he has regressed over the past few year but it could be a good opportunity to flip him into some picks at the deadline. Monahan can't stay healthy but would be a nice 3/4C option. Anderson is a nice addition as well.</div></div>
I wouldn't expect all of these players to be signed, just looking at bounce back candidates more or less.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 9, 2023 at 9:54 a.m.
Thread:
Missing Pieces
I don't mind Severson as a 2nd/3rd pair tweener, but I have the impression that he will cost more than this, and that he may not be worth what he costs. That being said, there aren't a lot of good RD candidates in the UFA pool, which could both make us more willing to pay him and limit our other options.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 3, 2023 at 9:17 a.m.
Thread:
VRANA TO BLUES
Just a reminder that none of us, myself included, know anything.
People were trading him for a first YESTERDAY
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 14, 2023 at 10:41 a.m.
Thread:
Change of Plans- Vrana Recalled and Playoff Push
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rednwhite</b></div><div>I agree, this team needs something to play for. Time to build some culture and let the team make a push for playoffs instead of trading everyone away.</div></div>
I'm sick of selling and I'm sick of missing the playoffs. Aren't you?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 26, 2023 at 1:13 p.m.
Thread:
Realistic Horvat Trade
I agree but Horvat is also better than all those other player. I think it will take 3 pieces IMO. Who knows.
Maybe a 1st, 2nd and Wallinder. You may need to put Pius Suter in for cap reasons.
I think Horvat is perfect for Detroit
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 26, 2023 at 11:44 a.m.
Thread:
Realistic Horvat Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rednwhite</b></div><div>That feels like way to much to me to be honest. I am fine moving Zadina but not a fan of getting rid of Ras or Veleno. Both guys are finally starting to look like real good pieces.</div></div>
JR wants a roster player, That would be Zadina. Plus a player coming off of his ELC hence Joe Veleno and a highend prospect William Wallinder fits that description and a 1st. But iagree it's overpayment and i really don't want to move either Rasmussen or Veleno either. Just need to get Larks resigned and stay the course.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 25, 2023 at 1:23 p.m.
Thread:
Identifying Long-Term Fits
I think the wings keep wallman and resign him, but if not this is very fair value for him, rather it be the 2023 2nd, but not even close to a deal breaker
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 22, 2022 at 1:05 p.m.
Thread:
Shake it Up
Wow, is that actually Detroit's center depth without Larkin?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 16, 2022 at 4:54 p.m.
Thread:
Rangers fans whats the price for Kakko
Take on the Trouba contract and u can have Kakko. Kakko + Trouba for Sundqvist and a 2nd
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 16, 2022 at 9:48 a.m.
Thread:
Sabres
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rednwhite</b></div><div>I think the Detroit trade is close. Yzerman would love to add another 1st this year, they should be able to get a good prospect at 16. I have no interest in Middlestadt, someone like Peterka would probably get it done.</div></div>
Agreed, Cozens swapped out for Middle seems like too much but definitely need a sweetener. Also see DET more likely to trade an extended Bert which will raise his value.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 14, 2022 at 9:19 p.m.
Thread:
2023 Wings - Getting to the cap floor
Flames pay to move Monahan or kiss Gaudreau goodbye.
Monahan hasn’t been “healthy” in years, is coming off another surgery, and has a big cap hit so yeah, he’s a cap dump with some upside.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 13, 2022 at 9:42 a.m.
Thread:
Mega Deal
I've been saying for a while that I think Trouba would waive for Detroit. There are tons of naysayers on this site who will tell you otherwise though. They argue:
1. He has a NMC
Forgetting that he can still be traded if he agrees to it, which he likely would to go back home to Michigan
2. His girlfriend went to school/works in NYC
Healthcare is a booming industry and NYC is not the only place she can find a good job
3. Jacob himself won't want to leave NY
People's situations change all the time. You never know, maybe now a few years later he wants to be closer to his family.
Just putting that out there because people get crazy about any ACGM Trouba trades lol.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 10, 2022 at 11:51 a.m.
Thread:
Big Moves
Can not see Wings giving up a 2nd for a 1 year player coming off hip surgery.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 10, 2022 at 1:45 p.m.
Thread:
What do red wings fan say to this
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rednwhite</b></div><div>Seider isn't avaliable, for anyone....</div></div>
I know, I said in description this trade is intended to figure out his value. But hey on NHL 22 I offered Turcotte and Walker and got Sieder and Staal.:tearsofjoy
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 9, 2022 at 2:47 p.m.
Thread:
Another Wasted Season Playoffs in 2024
They'll have to make some signings, both to make the cap floor and because I dont see Veleno as 2C/not all these young D will be ready to play. Realistically, this team can't just slow roll their way through the rebuild anymore either. Have to make some big signings eventually.
I think one of the obvious ones is Copp if they can pry him out of NY. They'll also need to get someone with some experience at LD, Petterson (PIT) and Schmidt (WPG) are always popular but maybe Yzerman can swing and get Provorov or Hague this year.
Personally I think 8x$8.5 is too much for Larkin unless he takes another step.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 8, 2022 at 2:24 p.m.
Thread:
What does it Take
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rednwhite</b></div><div>I never said it would happen. I know Yzerman will not move future assets at this point. Just something I would like to see. I overpaid but think it improves the team now and it is my AGM, so beat it.</div></div>
Im not so sure about that, Yzerman has already spent some draft capital and prospects before: 2nd for Leddy, Moved up in the draft, Used picks to acquire Stephens and Erne, traded prospect Alec Regula.
I wouldn´t personally do this trade, but there are many Wings fans who hates the idea of traiding. I don´t get it.
Yzerman has won almost every trade he has made. I think there are coming even bigger trades soon when the team is trending up. People also forget that every prospect hasn´t room on the roster and some of them has to be moved.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 8, 2022 at 2:08 p.m.
Thread:
What does it Take
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Billy12Bob</b></div><div>This trade is insane!
Cirelli has a salary of 7.2 millions this year. In order to extend him you'll have to offer more than that.
You want to give up 5 assets for him in Suter (our best defensive centre), Wallinder (a top prospect), two second round draft picks (in deep drafts), and a retention slot to boot (of which we only have two).
It would be much much cheaper to just sign Trocheck or Copp or someone else in the offseason.
I'll give you 100:1 odds on any bet over $10,000 that this trade doesn't happen.</div></div>
For players who are on expiring contracts that were signed after July 10, 2020:
The Qualifying Offer is limited to 120% of their previous contracts annual average (AAV)
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 8, 2022 at 1:50 p.m.
Thread:
What does it Take
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Billy12Bob</b></div><div>Cirelli scored 1.49 points per 60 even strength this season.
Suter scored 1.63 points per 60 even strength this season.
You want to trade Suter (with retention) and 3 other assets for a player that performs worse, is on an expiring contract, and cost twice as much. Why?</div></div>
Do you honestly think Cirelli's value comes from his offensive production?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 1, 2022 at 11:35 a.m.
Thread:
What does a Monahan deal look like
monahan + a 3rd for a 7th
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