Draft day or Off-season trade

Gotta think the Sabres can do better than Murphy, especially if it means trading down from the top 15.

Nope. I think Murphy's value is a 1st plus something (which what thatis is open to debate). Hawks can and should be willing to retain on his Murphy's deal to enhance his value with other teams more cap contrainted than Buffalo is. That Hawks pick is essentially a 1st as it will be the third or 4th pick of the 2nd. Murphy to Buffalo starts with either a first or Isak Rosen (former 1st) and probably needs something more for my liking.

I wouldnt hold my breath on that ask. Just keep him in that case.

Connor Murphy is a fine RhD, which is just what Buffalo needs (probably to partner Owen Power), and is signed for three more seasons at a very favorable cap hit. That being said, if Buffalo trades a first for him, it shouldn't be the 2023 pick -- that is virtually guaranteed to be no later than 13th overall and there's a small chance it might drop to 12th. Murphy plus something for the 2024 first, or Rosen and the Buffalo (not Philly) 2023 second, makes sense for the Sabres. And given what the Black Hawks accepted for McCabe and Lafferty, they might not get (or want) another high 2023 pick at all.

Basically this. Murphy and the NYR 2nd (or Hawks 3rd if that NYR pick converts to '24 1st) for Isak Rosen, Philly 2nd, and Jacob Bryson is fair for both sides. Murphy gives you a top 4 vet to pair with the several kids you already have. Rosen gives the Hawks a 1st round equivalent to add to a pretty weak forward prospect pool with the Sabres dealing from a position of stretgth (having a number of forward prospects further along in the development curve and already having positive impact at the NHL level). Bryson has no role if you add Murphy and fills a roster sole for the Hawks while shifting some cap too. Flipping from low 2nd to high second is the plus to the 1st that is Rosen.

At the end of the day, if you think Murphy is a top 4 and a good fit to pair and help your talented young D...a first plus a little is more than fair. If you don't, Hawks hang on to him or find a different dance partner (again even if they have to retain).