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Skinner at 9M AAV would be a mistake for Buffalo change my mind

Created by: Zwui21
Team: 2019-20 Buffalo Sabres
Initial Creation Date: May 30, 2019
Published: May 30, 2019
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
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Bob MacKenzie said the Buffalo Sabres are closing in on an 8-year, $72 million (9 million AAV) deal with pending UFA Jeff Skinner. The 27-yr old winger potted 40 goals last season was a career high, while also macthing his career high in points (63).
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2019
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2020
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2021
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
15$83,000,000$47,741,667$0$3,700,000$35,258,333
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
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$10,000,000$10,000,000
C
UFA - 7
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$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW
M-NTC
UFA - 4
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$3,000,000$3,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
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$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LW, C
RFA - 1
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$3,650,000$3,650,000
RW
UFA - 1
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$1,050,000$1,050,000
LW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$2,000,000$2,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
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$5,400,000$5,400,000
RD
UFA - 3
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$2,750,000$2,750,000
G
UFA - 2
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$2,250,000$2,250,000
LD
UFA - 1
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$1,300,000$1,300,000
RD
UFA - 1
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$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,850,000$3M)
LD/RD
UFA - 2
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$3,387,500$3,387,500
RD
UFA - 1
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$812,500$812,500
RD
UFA - 1

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May 30, 2019 at 5:51 p.m.
#1
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I mean, he did score 40 goals... It's a lot of money but not many players can score 40 goals in this league. I'd say it's an overpayment by about $1.5M per year, but Buffalo would be crazy to let him walk.
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May 30, 2019 at 5:51 p.m.
#2
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they gotta keep him. cant keep taking one step forward then two steps backwards
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May 30, 2019 at 5:53 p.m.
#3
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Quoting: TanSor
I mean, he did score 40 goals... It's a lot of money but not many players can score 40 goals in this league. I'd say it's an overpayment by about $1.5M per year, but Buffalo would be crazy to let him walk.


Well teams "should let him walk" if the team thinks they can spend 9m better. Not saying the Sabres can find better value elsewhere but time will tell if it's good signing.
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May 30, 2019 at 5:54 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: TanSor
I mean, he did score 40 goals... It's a lot of money but not many players can score 40 goals in this league. I'd say it's an overpayment by about $1.5M per year, but Buffalo would be crazy to let him walk.


I get it and I kinda agree. But man, this guy have never scored more than 63 points in his 9 year NHL career. This season he got 40 goals (first time) but if you look back, in two of the three seasons prior to this one he didn't even crack 30.

Risky risky move for Buffalo IMO, and if Skinner gets 9M... Jesus Christ the prices of UFAs are gonna get crazy. Duchene and Panarin are definitely smiling
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May 30, 2019 at 5:56 p.m.
#5
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Yeah.. I just wouldn't pay that. The downgrade to guys like Nyquist/Zuccarello etc isn't really 3+ million in my opinion
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May 30, 2019 at 5:57 p.m.
#6
What in tarnation
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$9M oof that's too much. I could understand $8M or $8,5M, but anything over that is just ridiculous...
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May 30, 2019 at 5:57 p.m.
#7
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Agreed. Mark stone resigned to 9.5 million. He’s nowhere near mark stone. Big overpayment by Botterel
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May 30, 2019 at 5:59 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: mhockey91
Agreed. Mark stone resigned to 9.5 million. He’s nowhere near mark stone. Big overpayment by Botterel


Yup, and the problem is that stupid overpayments like this one set precedents and drive the overall UFAs prices up. Damn
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May 30, 2019 at 6:01 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: Zwui21
Yup, and the problem is that stupid overpayments like this one set precedents and drive the overall UFAs prices up. Damn[
Quoting: MelonVK
Yeah.. I just wouldn't pay that. The downgrade to guys like Nyquist/Zuccarello etc isn't really 3+ million in my opinion


Youre implying that those guys would want to come to Buffalo. And him driving up the price benefits us in some ways no? Division rivals now have to pay more for their free agents (Marner, Panarin, Bob)? Its how the league works. It goes up every year. You have to realize only four players have scored more 5 on 5 goals than him in 8 years. Kane,Taveres Stamkos and Ovi. 9M is alot but you have to overpay.
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May 30, 2019 at 6:05 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: Facebookfighter


The way I see it there's plenty of wingers available on the UFA market. They won't all have other places to sign, most teams aren't really that far from the cap. The ones that are are either not really competing, or like Florida/NYR have plans only for the biggest fish
May 30, 2019 at 6:11 p.m.
#11
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It's really overpayment, but we have no choice, we can't just let him go after he's so perfectly fit into our team. If you look at our list, Skinner's departure will be disastrous, because I don't believe in our GM and that he will be able to find an adequate replacement Skinner.
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May 30, 2019 at 6:13 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: MelonVK
The way I see it there's plenty of wingers available on the UFA market. They won't all have other places to sign, most teams aren't really that far from the cap. The ones that are are either not really competing, or like Florida/NYR have plans only for the biggest fish


Hes earning 10.8% of the cap = Bergeron. 19 Players from the 18/19 who have scored 25+ goals and are signed to UFA Contracts, the average % against the Cap = 10.58%. He's getting "over paid" by .22%
May 30, 2019 at 6:27 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: Facebookfighter
Hes earning 10.8% of the cap = Bergeron. 19 Players from the 18/19 who have scored 25+ goals and are signed to UFA Contracts, the average % against the Cap = 10.58%. He's getting "over paid" by .22%


Yeah but he's not Patrice Bergeron, is he? And again where does he realistically sign for 9m? Cause he's only getting that 8th year in Buffalo. I'd guess Florida, if they miss out on Panarin, and maybe Vancouver or the Islanders could sign Skinner for 7x9m. I'd play that one a bit cool if I were the Sabres is all I'm saying
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May 30, 2019 at 6:42 p.m.
#14
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It's a slight overpay but hes a UFA so what are you gonna do.
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May 30, 2019 at 6:43 p.m.
#15
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Quoting: MelonVK
Yeah but he's not Patrice Bergeron, is he? And again where does he realistically sign for 9m? Cause he's only getting that 8th year in Buffalo. I'd guess Florida, if they miss out on Panarin, and maybe Vancouver or the Islanders could sign Skinner for 7x9m. I'd play that one a bit cool if I were the Sabres is all I'm saying


He contributed more analytically offensively than Bergeron. If you lose him who does Buffalo have that can match his production? They'd have to over pay their FA's too. Skinner makes them in the conversation and possibly be able to convince FA's that Buffalo is a place to be.

Other teams that could sign Skinner:
W/ Cap Dump: SJS, MIN,
Losing Marner: TOR
Everyone else: CAR, NYR, NYI, COL, NJD,OTT, PHI, FLA, CBJ
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May 30, 2019 at 6:49 p.m.
#16
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Skinner has 106 the last three years, he ranks third behind Kane and Ovechkin in that period. I'm cool with the $9 mil.
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May 30, 2019 at 6:57 p.m.
#17
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No. Deal with it.
May 30, 2019 at 7:06 p.m.
#18
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Quoting: Facebookfighter
He contributed more analytically offensively than Bergeron. If you lose him who does Buffalo have that can match his production? They'd have to over pay their FA's too. Skinner makes them in the conversation and possibly be able to convince FA's that Buffalo is a place to be.

Other teams that could sign Skinner:
W/ Cap Dump: SJS, MIN,
Losing Marner: TOR
Everyone else: CAR, NYR, NYI, COL, NJD,OTT, PHI, FLA, CBJ


WAR? Check /82 or /60 min.

SJS has Labanc, Meier (the guy about as far down from Skinner as Bergeron is up on him in war/60) and even if they dump Karlsson they'd have to let go of Thornton and Pavelski and get rid of another contract. Minnesota could realistically fit a contract, but it looks more like they're tearing down atm. Toronto also has to lose Marner for absolutely no cap space back. If I think 9m for Skinner is iffy I'm screaming at paying Marner 11.

He's not signing in Carolina again, is he? Rangers have said they will only halt the rebuild for exceptional talent; I assume that is Panarin/EK only, but that's up for debate. Colorado has an internal cap and have a bunch of young guys to pay. After giving Rantanen roughly 9 I'm 95+% sure they won't go for Skinner. The Devils could happen, if he thinks that's a better place to sign. Ottawa is atrocious and somehow even more cheap than they are bad. Philly has so many contracts to sign, it could work if they birdge Provorov, Sanheim, Koncecny and does the same with Patrick next year. Florida is possible, for sure. Cbj would be one of the leading candidates if they fail to sign Duchene.

I'm not saying you don't have a case, I'm not saying it's out of this world. I'm saying if I'm the GM and I'm presented with 9m x 8 take it or leave it I might keep my head cool and bet on no one else signing a better deal over 7 years.
May 30, 2019 at 7:30 p.m.
#19
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losing teams have to pay a premium. winning teams can convince people to sign at a slight discount or if there's no state income tax. new york has an fairly high state income tax rate at the top earning level. this is the cost of locking up skinner before free agency and hopefully help entice some other free agents once he's in the fold. you have to take the chance that he can score at a high clip along side eichel for the next 5 years and live the with the end of the contract with a cap that seems to rise at a decent rate.
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May 30, 2019 at 7:49 p.m.
#20
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Quoting: MelonVK
WAR? Check /82 or /60 min.

SJS has Labanc, Meier (the guy about as far down from Skinner as Bergeron is up on him in war/60) and even if they dump Karlsson they'd have to let go of Thornton and Pavelski and get rid of another contract. Minnesota could realistically fit a contract, but it looks more like they're tearing down atm. Toronto also has to lose Marner for absolutely no cap space back. If I think 9m for Skinner is iffy I'm screaming at paying Marner 11.

He's not signing in Carolina again, is he? Rangers have said they will only halt the rebuild for exceptional talent; I assume that is Panarin/EK only, but that's up for debate. Colorado has an internal cap and have a bunch of young guys to pay. After giving Rantanen roughly 9 I'm 95+% sure they won't go for Skinner. The Devils could happen, if he thinks that's a better place to sign. Ottawa is atrocious and somehow even more cheap than they are bad. Philly has so many contracts to sign, it could work if they birdge Provorov, Sanheim, Koncecny and does the same with Patrick next year. Florida is possible, for sure. Cbj would be one of the leading candidates if they fail to sign Duchene.

I'm not saying you don't have a case, I'm not saying it's out of this world. I'm saying if I'm the GM and I'm presented with 9m x 8 take it or leave it I might keep my head cool and bet on no one else signing a better deal over 7 years.


Isn't WAR combined? And I think if TOR were to take Skinner it would be because he was offer sheeted. I don't know, with Buffalo's history with the FA market, I wouldn't let him get there
May 30, 2019 at 7:59 p.m.
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Quoting: Facebookfighter
Isn't WAR combined? And I think if TOR were to take Skinner it would be because he was offer sheeted. I don't know, with Buffalo's history with the FA market, I wouldn't let him get there


Bergy played like 61 games, that's why. I hear you, but I still think with the competition coming from the likes of CBJ and NJ there's a decent chance he'd go with the devil he knows. I think this offer-sheet saga is overblown as usual, cause it has happened like once, and getting Marner for 11.something for 5 years, is that really worth like 4 first rounders? His production and following that his perception has been blown out of proportion mostly thanks to Tavares.

I've been wrong before, and I'm sort of bending to that 9m isn't the worst for a 5-on-5 driver like Skinner. The most eye-raising part of this entire storyline might be that he was traded for basically peanuts and Pu
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May 30, 2019 at 11:13 p.m.
#22
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I had a chance to talk with a former Sabres GM and at the beginning of season he said $9,000,000 was the magic figure. But here my friends is the bottom line, he provided 18% of the Sabre goals last year same as Ovechkin but less than Draisaitl 21%. If the Sabres do not sign him, then I think we are going to go to another rebuild stage and go into a full take on contracts for picks mode and suffer for another 3 year. I like many of the prospects but none of them are projected to provide anything close to that. As many of you has stated, Buffalo would need to over pay for a UFA and that is simply not going to happen. If it has to be $9,000,000 I think the Sabres need to do it. In 4 years, that will appear to be a bargain.

Quoting: TanSor
I mean, he did score 40 goals... It's a lot of money but not many players can score 40 goals in this league. I'd say it's an overpayment by about $1.5M per year, but Buffalo would be crazy to let him walk.


Quoting: linehan10
they gotta keep him. cant keep taking one step forward then two steps backwards


Quoting: palhal
Well teams "should let him walk" if the team thinks they can spend 9m better. Not saying the Sabres can find better value elsewhere but time will tell if it's good signing.


Quoting: Zwui21
I get it and I kinda agree. But man, this guy have never scored more than 63 points in his 9 year NHL career. This season he got 40 goals (first time) but if you look back, in two of the three seasons prior to this one he didn't even crack 30.

Risky risky move for Buffalo IMO, and if Skinner gets 9M... Jesus Christ the prices of UFAs are gonna get crazy. Duchene and Panarin are definitely smiling


Quoting: MelonVK
Yeah.. I just wouldn't pay that. The downgrade to guys like Nyquist/Zuccarello etc isn't really 3+ million in my opinion


Quoting: BurgerBoss
$9M oof that's too much. I could understand $8M or $8,5M, but anything over that is just ridiculous...


Quoting: mhockey91
Agreed. Mark stone resigned to 9.5 million. He’s nowhere near mark stone. Big overpayment by Botterel


Quoting: Facebookfighter


Quoting: Cheesesauce
It's really overpayment, but we have no choice, we can't just let him go after he's so perfectly fit into our team. If you look at our list, Skinner's departure will be disastrous, because I don't believe in our GM and that he will be able to find an adequate replacement Skinner.


Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld
It's a slight overpay but hes a UFA so what are you gonna do.


Quoting: ashleyschaeffer
losing teams have to pay a premium. winning teams can convince people to sign at a slight discount or if there's no state income tax. new york has an fairly high state income tax rate at the top earning level. this is the cost of locking up skinner before free agency and hopefully help entice some other free agents once he's in the fold. you have to take the chance that he can score at a high clip along side eichel for the next 5 years and live the with the end of the contract with a cap that seems to rise at a decent rate.
 
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