Forums/Armchair-GM

My Final Word on a Marner Contract

Created by: Random2152
Initial Creation Date: Aug 16, 2019
Published: Aug 17 at 3:46 pm
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Team Explanation
For those of you who do not want to read this lengthy post, the tl;dr version is I will live with a 7@10.5aav deal (all in SB's and with a 20+ team NTC/NMC). It is an overpayment by ~1-1.5 million, but considering all young stars are underpaid relative to their production (even McDavid, Matthews, and insert young star here) I will live with it.
Below is a projected Leafs roster with the 'fair' Marner contract.

For those of you who want to see contract comparables and a deeper breakdown; grab the popcorn.

Going based on news (Matthews) and my opinions/100% factual statements (not Matthews) here are a list of contract comparables for Marner (in no particular order). There are other comparable players but I will only be profiling some of the more prominent ones who currently have a contract.
Before you start, remember that the Matthews deal was signed in a new era of contracts for star centres so his % is by far the highest (that and the fact that he isn't a comparable for any of these players except for Kane).

Name - Contract - Starting Year - Cap% of starting year

Matthews- 5@11.634 - 2019-20 - 14.27%
Kane-------- 5@6.300 - 2010-11 - 10.61%
Tarasenko- 8@7.500 - 2015-16 - 10.50%
Aho---------- 5@8.454 - 2019-20 - 10.37%
Nylander-- 6@6.962 - 2018-19 - 8.76%
Pastrnak-- 6@6.666 - 2017-18 - 8.89%
Gaudreau- 6@6.750 - 2016-17 - 9.25%
Meier------- 4@6.000 - 2019-20 - 7.36%

A basic average on the term and the % gives you a contract of 5.625 years at a 10% hit. That gives you roughly a 5@8 - 6@8.5 which is right around the Aho contract and intrinsically is fairly close in terms of Marner's actual value on that term. At this point however, I do not think he will get his intrinsic worth and will be badly overpaid.

Basic counting stats (in per game for context):
Name - Year 1 GPG/PPG - Year 2 GPG/PPG - Year 3 GPG/PPG - etc, until 2nd contract starts

Matthews-- 0.49/0.84 - 0.55/1.02 - 0.54/1.07
Kane--------- 0.26/0.88 - 0.31/0.88 - 0.37/1.07
Tarasenko- 0.21/0.29 - 0.33/0.67 - 0.48/0.95
Aho---------- 0.29/0.60 - 0.37/0.83 - 0.37/1.01
Marner----- 0.25/0.79 - 0.27/0.84 - 0.32/1.15
Nylander--- 0.27/.059 - 0.27-0.75 - 0.24-0.74
Pastrnak--- 0.22/0.59 - 0.29/0.51 - 0.45/0.93
Gaudreau- 1.00/1.00 - 0.30/0.80 - 0.38/0.99
Meier------- 0.09/0.18 - 0.26/0.44

Basic counting stats (in /pg context) essentially show that (Auston Matthews is a ****ing beast) Marner is extremely comparable with players like Aho and Gaudreau, and is a step above Nylander while being multiple steps below Matthews.

Going off of this we can guess at a 'fair' contract as being the average of Gaudreau and Aho's deals. That comes to 5.5@9.81% or 5.5@8. Gaudreau was signed in a past RFA contract scenario, so I think it would be fair to add up to 1 million to this aav in order to account for this (surpassing the Aho deal in he skew). Strictly value wise this is what he is worth and my highest 'fair' valuation on him of 6@9.000 seems mostly in line with this projection. I will be basing any contract signed off of this number, and will be shocked if he comes in anywhere near it from the news I have been hearing.

As CF doesn't have the ability to put images in these descriptions, I will be adding the advanced metrics down below to show how Meier is better than his counting stats show and how Mitch and Aho are very close.

As a conclusion to this; I will say that I will be able to live with a deal that surpasses his intrinsic value as long as it comes with term. I would be okay with up to 7@10.5aav based on his age and the fact that he should continue to get better. I am still irked that JT took a large discount to come here just for Mitch to put the teams financial future in jeopardy by demanding a massive overpayment and am annoyed at Shanahan and Dubas for (reportedly) giving it to him.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Marner, Mitchell6$9,000,000
Buyouts
  • Mikhail Grabovski: $0
Retained Salary Transactions
  • Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
TOR
CBJ
TOR
VGK
TOR
CAR
COL
EDM
SJS
STL
WPG
2021
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
2022
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$80,959,699$0$0$540,301
Left WingCenterRight Wing
TOR
Hyman, Zach
$2,250,000
LW
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Tavares, John
$11,000,000
C
NMC
UFA - 6
TOR
Marner, Mitchell
$9,000,000
RW
UFA - 6
TOR
Johnsson, Andreas
$3,400,000
LW
UFA - 4
TOR
Matthews, Auston
$11,634,000
C
UFA - 5
TOR
Nylander, William
$6,962,366
RW, C
UFA - 5
TOR
Mikheyev, Ilya
$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
TOR
Kerfoot, Alexander
$3,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 4
TOR
Kapanen, Kasperi
$3,200,000
RW
RFA - 3
TOR
Moore, Trevor
$775,000
RW, LW
RFA - 2
TOR
Spezza, Jason
$700,000
C, RW
NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Shore, Nick
$750,000
C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
TOR
Muzzin, Jake
$4,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
TOR
Barrie, Tyson
$2,750,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Andersen, Frederik
$5,000,000
G
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Rielly, Morgan
$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 3
TOR
Ceci, Cody
$4,500,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Hutchinson, Michael
$700,000
G
UFA - 1
TOR
Marincin, Martin
$700,000
LD
UFA - 1
TOR
Schmaltz, Jordan
$700,000
RD
RFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
TOR
Petan, Nicolas
$775,000
LW, RW, C
RFA - 2
TOR
Dermott, Travis
$863,333
LD
RFA - 1
TOR
Clarkson, David
$5,250,000
RW
NMC NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Holl, Justin
$675,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Horton, Nathan
$5,300,000
RW
NMC NTC
UFA - 1

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Aug 20 at 4:30
#151
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 3,938
Likes: 1,581
Quoting: SpaghettiPasta
Let's get this to ten!


Eh. 7/10 ain't bad
SpaghettiPasta liked this.
Sep 15 at 8:13
#152
I just need sauce
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 1,848
Likes: 731
Quoting: Psj14
Matthews is a beast lol but only plays 66% of the games anyone can find stats to prove anything, Ryan Poehling had a 16 p/60, Matthews was a 3.5 sure he only played one game apparently that doesn't matter. Dubas is a joke and caused this situation by signing JT to a contract that he doesn't deserve and is now paying the price, everyone is paying the price for his stupidity.


possibly the worst take ever
Random2152 liked this.
Sep 23 at 4:51
#153
johnjohn
Joined: Feb 2019
Posts: 171
Likes: 32
Another completely wrong prediction from the so called expert
Just like always
Sep 23 at 7:46
#154
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 3,938
Likes: 1,581
Quoting: Johnjohn
Another completely wrong prediction from the so called expert
Just like always


This wasn't a prediction and you are an illiterate moron if you think it was.
SpaghettiPasta liked this.
Sep 23 at 8:04
#155
I just need sauce
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 1,848
Likes: 731
Quoting: Random2152
This wasn't a prediction and you are an illiterate moron if you think it was.


"I'm okay if it is 10.5*7" isn't a prediction.
Random2152 liked this.
Sep 23 at 8:23
#156
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 3,938
Likes: 1,581
Quoting: SpaghettiPasta
"I'm okay if it is 10.5*7" isn't a prediction.


Honestly I'm probably just going to block him. He is either the biggest most arrogant idiot I've ever come across or is an unoriginal mediocre troll.
Sep 23 at 9:20
#157
johnjohn
Joined: Feb 2019
Posts: 171
Likes: 32
Quoting: Random2152
Honestly I'm probably just going to block him. He is either the biggest most arrogant idiot I've ever come across or is an unoriginal mediocre troll.


Please block me lol. That way I can’t see you terrible predictions and useless information. Never seen a guy wrong so many times but thinks he is an expert. What a dummy
 
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