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Toronto Maple Leafs signed Justin Holl (3 Years / $2,000,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Jan 1 at 1:24
#51
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 383
Likes: 151
2 Million for 3 seasons on a 27 year old with 50 NHL games in his career is risky. Not a big risk because it isn't a high cap hit, but still a risk.
Jan 1 at 1:34
#52
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 5,803
Likes: 2,102
Quoting: Jamiepo
That’s his average ice time. He was playing low minutes to start the season. Has been playing 20 min a night since.


because of injuries.
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Jan 1 at 1:56
#53
get off my lawn...
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 16,222
Likes: 8,195
Quoting: HabsForEver
because of injuries.


Babs always had it in for him. He was looking very good on the third pair Babs wouldn’t move him up but keefe did.
Jan 1 at 2:09
#54
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 3,419
Likes: 1,517
Edited Jan 1 at 6:34
Quoting: palhal
Signing Holl for 2m doesn't affect any way the Leafs ability to sign Muzzin. Not saying the Leafs should pay top dollar for Muzzin or that Muzzin even wants to return to the Leafs but geez to get an a competent UFA RHD for 2m...that's a bargain.


My problem with it is what some already pointed out......2M for bottom Pair D isnt affordable, especially not for TML with knowing Sandin - Liljegren can fill those spots next year for 750k and 50M tighed for 7 Forwards. Current stats are GA 26th......SA 28th......SCA 23th......PP 7th......PK 26th....and thats with Muzzin as only one being considered to play what it should be called proper D. If he wont be re-signed, that leaves TML in the need for 3 ( THREE ) Top 4 Ds if you dont want to go thru Burke ( and the others, you know ) Era again where mindset was Kaberle - McCabe is enough to bring Parade into town. History shows it doesnt.

Same goes for Dermott when he will be signed ( im assuming 3 x 2,5M or even more if Holl got 2M for the first official Season not even ended ), those two guys are No.5 Ds, Dermott having an upside to be swimming in No.4 D pool at bottom of the list and that wont be enough. Not that i dont like both two kids, they are trying, they are doing their job as requested ( Holl still with to many giveaways ), but TML fans and Office are seeing them as competent mostly cause theres no other alternative or as i said, the 30 years and more thinking "one Top Pair is enough" still lives in TML Office.
Jan 1 at 2:53
#55
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 2,456
Likes: 1,055
What's up with the NMC? Is it now standard for 27 y.o. depth players to get NMC's? Someone please explain...
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Jan 1 at 8:16
#56
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 33,224
Likes: 8,789
Quoting: Brian2016
What's up with the NMC? Is it now standard for 27 y.o. depth players to get NMC's? Someone please explain...


Maybe Holl would've have signed that contract without that NMC protection, meaning would have tested free agency. Holl isn't a depth player, he's expected to be s starter during his term with Leafs.
Gee I don't get all this distain in these posts for signing a NHL regular for 2m
Jan 1 at 8:26
#57
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 33,224
Likes: 8,789
Quoting: Laudan
My problem with it is what some already pointed out......2M for bottom Pair D isnt affordable, especially not for TML with knowing Sandin - Liljegren can fill those spots next year for swimming in No.4 D pool at bottom of the list and that wont be enough. Not that i dont like both two kids, they are trying, they are doing their job as requested ( Holl still with to many giveaways ), but TML fans and Office are seeing them as competent mostly cause theres no other alternative or as i said, the 30 years and more thinking "one Top Pair is enough" still lives in TML Office.



You may be right that the TML think they can live with an average defence group because they have paid a premium price for the forward. But signing the forwards to those contracts isn't a problem assuming the contracts are "fair".
If the TML feel they need better, more expensive Dmen, they do have the ability to trade any of their cap heavy forwards (except Tavares).
I just don't know why so many Leaf fans and Leaf haters think they are married to all their forwards. Sure, there might not be player movement this season but summer is the time to truly rearrange player personnel. Gee, all teams go this process, don't know why folks think the Leafs are so unique.
Brian2016 liked this.
Jan 1 at 10:08
#58
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 2,456
Likes: 1,055
Quoting: palhal
Maybe Holl would've have signed that contract without that NMC protection, meaning would have tested free agency. Holl isn't a depth player, he's expected to be s starter during his term with Leafs.
Gee I don't get all this distain in these posts for signing a NHL regular for 2m


It's not disdain on my part. I totally get why Dubas is getting out in front on this one. I didn't mean to under estimate Holl, but I was just surprised at the NMC. NTC/NMC are usually granted to veteran players on longer term contracts, right? The $2M AAV is probably gonna be a W for the Leafs.

I think the big question here is why did it take Holl so long to find a roster spot? It's not like he was un-drafted. His numbers were good in the AHL. Is it as simple as he didn't fit into Babcock's system?
Jan 1 at 10:15
#59
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 2,456
Likes: 1,055
Quoting: palhal
You may be right that the TML think they can live with an average defence group because they have paid a premium price for the forward. But signing the forwards to those contracts isn't a problem assuming the contracts are "fair".
If the TML feel they need better, more expensive Dmen, they do have the ability to trade any of their cap heavy forwards (except Tavares).
I just don't know why so many Leaf fans and Leaf haters think they are married to all their forwards. Sure, there might not be player movement this season but summer is the time to truly rearrange player personnel. Gee, all teams go this process, don't know why folks think the Leafs are so unique.


I do think they overpaid Marner by about $1M AAV or at least should've locked him and/or Matthews up for the full 8 seasons. But, you're right, every one of their young forwards is tradable. I think Dubas will eventually move out Johnsson or Kap in order to further solidify their D or add some grit to lineup, though. This might not happen til the summer. Either way, things are looking up in Toronto. They're still just a little top heavy to go deep in the playoffs right now. I can't really see them beating WASH, BOS, or even a fully healthy Pens team in a 7 game series. But, you never know.
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Jan 1 at 11:08
#60
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 33,224
Likes: 8,789
Quoting: Brian2016
It's not disdain on my part. I totally get why Dubas is getting out in front on this one. I didn't mean to under estimate Holl, but I was just surprised at the NMC. NTC/NMC are usually granted to veteran players on longer term contracts, right? The $2M AAV is probably gonna be a W for the Leafs.

I think the big question here is why did it take Holl so long to find a roster spot? It's not like he was un-drafted. His numbers were good in the AHL. Is it as simple as he didn't fit into Babcock's system?


Babcock's system? It like Babcock made his plan in July and and wasn't going to change his game plan or personnel. I've said for years, Babcock was a terrible head coach. He had no feel for the game, and just stuck with his floundering methods . Even this summer he announced Matthews could play 18 to 19 minutes a game. Why? The individual game should dictate his time and allocation of time.
I suppose Holl really wasn't good enough to be an NHL till a couple of years ago. In his first two NHL games two years ago, he had career numbers. 2 games, 2 goals and a plus 5. The only two games he played that season.
Now I really think Leafs management thought Holl was NHL good enough. His current contract is a one way deal where he gets 675,000 whether he's a Leaf or Marlie. One reason he probably wasn't picked up on waivers because teams didn't want a NHL salary if he was in the AHL. Holl consistently was the best Marlie Dman. (if that means anything).
So while he isn't getting PP minutes, he's certainly getting even strength and PK time. Since the Keefe,'s arrival who has been the best RHD...Barrie, Ceci or Holl? Could very well be Holl.
Jan 1 at 3:35
#61
No regretzkys
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 413
Likes: 176
Quoting: HabsForEver
He has the 5th highest average ice time for defensemen on the Leafs this season, he isn't being given top 4 minutes.


That's because under Babcock he was on the 3rd pairing. He is now on the 2nd pairing and has been for over a month.
He also doesn't play the powerplay. He is 3rd on the team behind Rielly and Muzzin for even strength ice time.

Keefe has given him top 4 minutes and tough assignments against opponents top lines. He has done great.
Go talk about the Habs, you have no idea what you're talking about.
Jan 1 at 4:01
#62
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 5,803
Likes: 2,102
Quoting: MadLin27
That's because under Babcock he was on the 3rd pairing. He is now on the 2nd pairing and has been for over a month.
He also doesn't play the powerplay. He is 3rd on the team behind Rielly and Muzzin for even strength ice time.

Keefe has given him top 4 minutes and tough assignments against opponents top lines. He has done great.
Go talk about the Habs, you have no idea what you're talking about.


So what game would you like to take a look at? You say I have no idea what I'm talking about but can't back up what you are saying. Take a look at the ice time he was given before Muzzin went down.
Jan 1 at 4:18
#63
get off my lawn...
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 16,222
Likes: 8,195
Quoting: Brian2016
What's up with the NMC? Is it now standard for 27 y.o. depth players to get NMC's? Someone please explain...


M-ntc not an nmc. Some people layers will be looking for that clause with the expansion coming.
Jan 1 at 4:43
#64
No regretzkys
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 413
Likes: 176
Quoting: HabsForEver
So what game would you like to take a look at? You say I have no idea what I'm talking about but can't back up what you are saying. Take a look at the ice time he was given before Muzzin went down.


I literally did back up what I am saying. My argument was that he has been playing top 4 minutes under Keefe and his overall numbers are dampened by the fact that Babcock barely played him on the 3rd pairing and because he doesn't play the powerplay. Want to talk numbers?

Justin Holl under Babcock averaged - 14:27 of ice
Justin Holl under Keefe averages - 18:39 of ice

5on5 ice under Babcock - 12:21
5on5 ice under Keefe - 17:25 (4th on team for D)

During the Leafs recent 6 game win streak, Holl was 4th on the team in Avg ice time with 20:34. He also played over 26 minutes vs Edmonton against the Mcdavid Draisaitl line.

Muzzin has only been injured two games and Holl's ice time has only been marginally higher so I'm not sure what your point is there.

It is small sample size, but in the short span that Keefe has been coach, Holl has been fantastic and arguably our best defender. He has been playing hard hockey with limited mistakes. Joining the rush, making good clean breakout passes.

Is he a top 4 Dman long term? Who knows. Its admittedly to soon to say for sure, but in the last month Holl has been a top 4 Dman and has thrived. Not sure how one can dispute that.
Jan 1 at 5:24
#65
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 63
Likes: 12
$2,000,000 for a fringe 3rd pair defenceman. Yikes.
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Jan 1 at 5:36
#66
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 33,224
Likes: 8,789
Quoting: TheCandoRailfan
$2,000,000 for a fringe 3rd pair defenceman. Yikes.


Fringe? Sure he hasn't played a lot in the NHL, but he's playing big minutes now. Third pair Dman? What they meaningless term means. Just because he doesn't play the PP and put up big points doesn't mean he isn't competent.. Hardly fringe. Playing better than the 4.05m Gardiner or the 2.3m TVR.
Brian2016 liked this.
Jan 2 at 12:30
#67
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 290
Likes: 183
This commitment to Justin Holl doesn’t solve the need for the Leafs to acquire a top-pair RHD. Nor does it provide an obstacle to it. Obtaining a RHD capable of playing a top-4 role competently (not necessarily brilliantly) for 3y at $2M on the open market would be nigh impossible.

For all these reasons and many more, click “Yes”.

This message brought to you by the Justin (Holl) for PM campaign.
Jan 3 at 10:45
#68
i hope ur hungry now
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,304
Likes: 921
Quoting: Laudan
My problem with it is what some already pointed out......2M for bottom Pair D isnt affordable, especially not for TML with knowing Sandin - Liljegren can fill those spots next year for 750k and 50M tighed for 7 Forwards. Current stats are GA 26th......SA 28th......SCA 23th......PP 7th......PK 26th....and thats with Muzzin as only one being considered to play what it should be called proper D. If he wont be re-signed, that leaves TML in the need for 3 ( THREE ) Top 4 Ds if you dont want to go thru Burke ( and the others, you know ) Era again where mindset was Kaberle - McCabe is enough to bring Parade into town. History shows it doesnt.

Same goes for Dermott when he will be signed ( im assuming 3 x 2,5M or even more if Holl got 2M for the first official Season not even ended ), those two guys are No.5 Ds, Dermott having an upside to be swimming in No.4 D pool at bottom of the list and that wont be enough. Not that i dont like both two kids, they are trying, they are doing their job as requested ( Holl still with to many giveaways ), but TML fans and Office are seeing them as competent mostly cause theres no other alternative or as i said, the 30 years and more thinking "one Top Pair is enough" still lives in TML Office.


What is with you going against everything that most of TML fanbase agrees on
Jan 6 at 10:44
#69
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 2,456
Likes: 1,055
Quoting: rebecca
This commitment to Justin Holl doesn’t solve the need for the Leafs to acquire a top-pair RHD. Nor does it provide an obstacle to it. Obtaining a RHD capable of playing a top-4 role competently (not necessarily brilliantly) for 3y at $2M on the open market would be nigh impossible.

For all these reasons and many more, click “Yes”.

This message brought to you by the Justin (Holl) for PM campaign.


How about 7 years for $8.5M AAV? I fully expect the Leafs to be all in on Pietrangelo this summer. This will solve their RHD issue.
rebecca liked this.
Jan 9 at 9:36
#70
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 215
Likes: 160
Quoting: Laudan
My problem with it is what some already pointed out......2M for bottom Pair D isnt affordable, especially not for TML with knowing Sandin - Liljegren can fill those spots next year for 750k and 50M tighed for 7 Forwards. Current stats are GA 26th......SA 28th......SCA 23th......PP 7th......PK 26th....and thats with Muzzin as only one being considered to play what it should be called proper D. If he wont be re-signed, that leaves TML in the need for 3 ( THREE ) Top 4 Ds if you dont want to go thru Burke ( and the others, you know ) Era again where mindset was Kaberle - McCabe is enough to bring Parade into town. History shows it doesnt.

Same goes for Dermott when he will be signed ( im assuming 3 x 2,5M or even more if Holl got 2M for the first official Season not even ended ), those two guys are No.5 Ds, Dermott having an upside to be swimming in No.4 D pool at bottom of the list and that wont be enough. Not that i dont like both two kids, they are trying, they are doing their job as requested ( Holl still with to many giveaways ), but TML fans and Office are seeing them as competent mostly cause theres no other alternative or as i said, the 30 years and more thinking "one Top Pair is enough" still lives in TML Office.


I think Holl is worth $2M, and I like this signing for the Leafs.

I think if you are going to knock anything, the argument could be made that the Leafs Cap Strategy may not make sense (I think it does, but it is different so it is more valid to take issue with it).

The Leafs are likely aim to commit about 65% of their cap hit to their starting forward group. Then about 25% or so to their D core, and the remaining to goal tending and depth. That means they value forward more than D, and I think that is a strategy they intend to employ.

To me this means the Leafs plan to commit roughly $21M to their top 6 D next year. Rielly and Holl make up $7M, and Dermott likely costs less than $3M, assuming you have at least one league minimum or ELC player playing, the Leafs will have about $10-$11M they are willing to spend on two slots. I think Holl fits into this plan either way, so either the Leafs plan to blow most of that money on a single guy, or use it to create more depth. Either way, I think the plan is to commit roughly that to their D and likely not more, so I don't think the plan is to have Holl be a bottom pair ( in terms of salary), unless there is another guy making just a little more (possibly dermott). I think the Leafs will have no more than 3 guys making more than $3.5M next year, possibly just two.

The benefit they do have, is that if they feel like committing so little to their D is costing them, their forward contracts are all fair value or better, and can be pretty easily moved to reallocate their cap and value. However, I don't think it's likely Dubas abandons this strategy very quickly, which is why I think Holl got 3 years.
Jan 9 at 5:44
#71
habs_fan
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 2,858
Likes: 656
Brett kulak 2.0
Jan 14 at 10:09
#72
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 290
Likes: 183
Quoting: Brian2016
How about 7 years for $8.5M AAV? I fully expect the Leafs to be all in on Pietrangelo this summer. This will solve their RHD issue.


I’m reticent to give Pietrangelo - who will be turning 30 in just a couple days - a 7 year deal starting in what is his age 30/31 season....however realistically if the Leafs don’t offer it he will be able to get it elsewhere. With the Leafs cap constraints they can’t outbid (most) everyone like with Tavares but they may have a chance to bring him home for $7.5M to $8.5M in 7y *if* he wants to play here (and that’s a bit if). We shall see.
Jan 21 at 11:53
#73
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 408
Likes: 176
Weird to see a potentially #4/5D get a M-NTC. Leafs brass must really like the guy. Overall a good deal if his recent play continues and he can stay slotted in on the second pair. Even on the bottom pair a $2M cap hit isn't bad (unless you already spend $40M on four players and need to find savings elsewhere).
 
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