I've spent a lot of time over the last 9 months trying to figure out what went wrong with the Sharks and how I would progress if I were the GM. I thought about at least 100 different factors and my hockey ideals and then I got really really freaking high and came up with this roster.
Is it perfect? Nope. Is it even close to being realistic? No way in hell. But I think it *is* more or less an outline of the philosophy I think the Sharks should follow, which is “Try and find a few reasonable pieces you can incorporate into the whole for several years, but try to avoid major trades, give your kids time to develop, and for the love of all that is holy stop trading away all our first round picks”
So. First of all, no, I did not address The Goalie Issue. Frankly, I liked the way that both Jones and Dell were playing in February and March, and I liked January too for Dell. I think the long break is going to be good for Jones’s mind, body, and play. I think working with Nabby has been extremely good for both of them, and I’d like to see what further work with him and being away from DeBoer’s pattern of “ride Jones until he dies, then start a cold Dell” can do for their games. And anyway, buying Jones out with the flat cap issue is a terrible idea and we should be able to get Dell cheap. Cheap is good.
I also didn’t do dick with the blue line, except re-sign Heed and make him the 6th D. He shouldn’t cost a lot and I felt like addressing the forwards issue was frankly more pressing. (I know there’s people who think that Merkley should be starting in the NHL but I think that would be a terrible idea. I paid serious attention to him at the prospect’s scrimmage last summer and I’ve watched a truly stupid number of clips of his play with the Knights on youtube and I just don’t think he’s ready for the show. He needs to put on some muscle, and he’s *got* to remember to keep moving after he makes a pass - I think tiime in the AHL is going to be important for him and I hope he gets it.)
Okay! So! The trades! I’m over Sörensen. He didn’t blow my skirt up in 18-19 and he sure as hell didn’t rustle my jimmies last season. But still, he’s an experienced NHLer with one year left on a fairly cheap contract and he’s proven that he can produce decent 3rd line numbers. Suomela still has a decent amount of promise and potential, and Viel could maybe make it? I don’t know, I just want another pick. Gimme prospects to develop!
I think Josh Anderson would be a smart target - Columbus is going to have a hell of a time keeping him *and* giving Dubois the raise he’s earned, and I strongly suspect that they’re going to have to move him to save cap room. I based both the trade and his salary on both the fact that his numbers last season were absolute dogcrap even before he was officially injured in March (do I think he was playing through an injury for the first half of the season? Yes, yes I do.) and that he just had surgery to repair his left shoulder and nobody knows what his play will be like going forward. Will he continue on his trajectory towards 30 goals and 50+ points in a season or will he wind up being more on the “four points in 26 games” path? It’s all a mystery at this point. I think that Columbus would be willing to deal for a couple of decent prospects and a 2nd round pick - given his injury I don’t know that they’d get a 1st for him. All of that said. he is arbitration eligible so I couldn’t go *too* low with his contract - based on his trajectory, injury, and last season 3x3.25 would be reasonable.
Which brings us to Labanc - while his numbers are actually not *that* bad, he had a pretty dramatic fall-off from where he was the season before and he’s still not figuring out how to play any kind of defense. That said, he has a lot of potential and is still pretty great on the PP. He should net a decent return - possibly better than this one, considering what we got for Goodrow :P. (this has been edited based on feedback)
Galchenyuk struggled mightily this last season, but prior to that he was a steady presence in Montreal. Sounds like he had a very Sharky year and here’s hoping for a rebound for us all. I like him, I think he could be a solid middle six winger again, and I based his salary on comparable numbers pulled from this here website.
I absolutely brought Jumbo and Patty back - if they want to play, they play. Ideally, John Leonard would be ready in 21-22 to take Patty’s place on the LW, and I’m confident that at least one of our baby centers will be ready to step up to 3rd line duties by that point. I also brought Melker and Noesen back because that fourth line really clicked towards the end of last season, Noesen was absolutely one of the best parts of last year and we barely had him at all, and Melker is absolutely needed for the PK now that Goodrow is gone. Also I like him. Hush.
ANYWAY. I wrote a novel. Sorry. Comments, critiques, etc etc are welcome - I love feedback on this kind of thing (and I also love mess, which is why I’m a Sharks fan, I guess.)
I don't hate it, but you've gotta figure out a way to get a couple more cheap bodies in there. You *Need* a 21 man roster at the bare minimum, but ideally should have a 22 man roster. Probably means passing on Josh Anderson, or finding a cheaper backup goalie.
I don't hate it, but you've gotta figure out a way to get a couple more cheap bodies in there. You *Need* a 21 man roster at the bare minimum, but ideally should have a 22 man roster. Probably means passing on Josh Anderson, or finding a cheaper backup goalie.
Aw hell, you're not wrong. I'm not giving up on Anderson - we desperately need a top 6 RW and Labanc just isn't gonna cut it. Labanc on the other hand....
Aw hell, you're not wrong. I'm not giving up on Anderson - we desperately need a top 6 RW and Labanc just isn't gonna cut it. Labanc on the other hand....
If it were me, I'd probably be banking on Labanc bouncing back before Anderson, but I definitely see the intrigue in him. Don't know what the heck happened to Labanc this year.
If it were me, I'd probably be banking on Labanc bouncing back before Anderson, but I definitely see the intrigue in him. Don't know what the heck happened to Labanc this year.
I mean, he choked. Hard. But so did the rest of the team, so at least he's not alone? That said, while I do think he'll bounce back, I'm kind of over his defensive flaws that he's shown no real progress in fixing. Do I think he's got a hell of a lot of potential and would I honestly hate to see him go? Yes. But I really liked Anderson's play before this last season and he's not the defensive liability that Labanc can be. Also, he was projected to be recovered and ready to go for training camp back when we all thought that would be happening right about, oh, now, so I figure that given an additional 2 months of recovery he might be rehabbed enough to play well? IDK, I just like him, think he's gettable, and don't have a hell of a lot of faith in Labanc playing top 6 at this point in his development. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I mean, he choked. Hard. But so did the rest of the team, so at least he's not alone? That said, while I do think he'll bounce back, I'm kind of over his defensive flaws that he's shown no real progress in fixing. Do I think he's got a hell of a lot of potential and would I honestly hate to see him go? Yes. But I really liked Anderson's play before this last season and he's not the defensive liability that Labanc can be. Also, he was projected to be recovered and ready to go for training camp back when we all thought that would be happening right about, oh, now, so I figure that given an additional 2 months of recovery he might be rehabbed enough to play well? IDK, I just like him, think he's gettable, and don't have a hell of a lot of faith in Labanc playing top 6 at this point in his development. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
That’s all simply false. Every metric showed his defensive game and overall game improved. He rode a super unsustainably low PDO that made his stats look worse than they were. At 5v5, he was probably the 3rd best forward on the team last year behind Meier and Hertl. While he’s not ever going to be a PK guy and someone you hard match in the defensive zone, this idea that he hasn’t made strides defensively is pure conjecture that’s not based in the slightest bit of factual evidence.
This makes no sense, you give up to much for Anderson to start but then you expect him to come in and do a better job then Labance because he hasnt been good in your eyes. Then expect another team to give you a top prospect and a pick for Labance, which also wouldnt happen.
I think you are overselling (undervaluing) SJ side on the Ottawa deal (i am not familiar with the 2 prospects in the CBJ deal, as far as quality or upside).
Understood you probably are giving extra incentive for the team's to make the trades.
It seems to me that Brannstrom for LeBanc straight up might be adequate value, or maybe having to add a 4th or 5th, instead of a 2nd.
That’s all simply false. Every metric showed his defensive game and overall game improved. He rode a super unsustainably low PDO that made his stats look worse than they were. At 5v5, he was probably the 3rd best forward on the team last year behind Meier and Hertl. While he’s not ever going to be a PK guy and someone you hard match in the defensive zone, this idea that he hasn’t made strides defensively is pure conjecture that’s not based in the slightest bit of factual evidence.
Fair enough! I'm not really super into analytics and numbers, I just know what I saw when I was at the games and went off of that and a brief scan of his base line stats so I'm sure you're absolutely right. Still, while I'd love to keep him on the team, if we can get a good return for him and also sign a solid (or potentially solid, idk) RW to play on the 2nd line I'd go that route every time. (And I say this as someone who was fully talking about getting his jersey back in 18-19, so please understand that I do honestly appreciate his potential.)
This makes no sense, you give up to much for Anderson to start but then you expect him to come in and do a better job then Labance because he hasnt been good in your eyes. Then expect another team to give you a top prospect and a pick for Labance, which also wouldnt happen.
I'm not giving up that much for Anderson - a 2nd - which I would be shocked if CBJ doesn't get for him - and a couple of prospects that still need quite a bit of development to even potentially be NHL ready. Mind, they're still absolutely viable prospects, but San Jose does need at least a couple of players who can play now as opposed to maybe being ready in 2 years. It's extremely important to the well-being of the club that we make a viable push for the post-season & I feel like Anderson could be a real asset in achieving that goal.
As someone pointed out in the comments here, Labanc apparently has better numbers than I'd thought! But even without that, he's absolutely better than most of the Senator's right wingers and would be a huge boost to their power play. He's a good player as is (go watch the 5 minute major power play from 18-19's round 1 game 7 against the Knights for proof of that) and he's absolutely going to get better - I just happen to prefer Anderson's style of play and think he'd be better for the Sharks right now.
I think you are overselling (undervaluing) SJ side on the Ottawa deal (i am not familiar with the 2 prospects in the CBJ deal, as far as quality or upside).
Understood you probably are giving extra incentive for the team's to make the trades.
It seems to me that Brannstrom for LeBanc straight up might be adequate value, or maybe having to add a 4th or 5th, instead of a 2nd.
Oh hell no. There's no way that a player with an average of 37 points per season and who's a monster on the power play is only worth a prospect who has performed well at the AHL level but has yet to produce more than 4 points in 31 games plus a 4th or 5th. I think people underestimate the potential value of the right player for the right team - witness Goodrow netting a 1st round pick (albeit a very low one) because the Lightning needed grit and help on their penalty kill and they got those things in Goodrow along with 2 years of a cheap as hell contract. Labanc is absolutely more developed and than most of the right wingers that the Sens have playing right now - their rebuild is going well and with all the draft picks they have this season they're going to be terrifying in a few years - but at this moment in time they could definitely use a hardcore offensive forward who puts up a decent number of points and who would be a boon for their power play.
I would love to keep Labanc - I think he's got a crap ton of potential and I like his scoring. But if it comes down to continuing to develop Labanc or going with Anderson, I'd take Anderson just based on personal preference and potential ability to bring value to the team this coming season.
I think you are overselling (undervaluing) SJ side on the Ottawa deal (i am not familiar with the 2 prospects in the CBJ deal, as far as quality or upside).
Understood you probably are giving extra incentive for the team's to make the trades.
It seems to me that Brannstrom for LeBanc straight up might be adequate value, or maybe having to add a 4th or 5th, instead of a 2nd.
not even close. Brannstrom far outweighs labanc. Sens wouldnt even move the second alone for labanc.
Im sure you could get a late first or early second i think that is fair value just maybe not from the rebuilding sens.
That's fair! I picked them because their RW is pretty weak and I think Labanc is young enough that he could fit into a rebuild, but if the Sens wouldn't want or need his particular skillset there's plenty of teams that would probably nibble at that bait.
I think you overvalued Galchenyuk a lot, since most of scouts have him at ''don't even think about him'' category. I think Galch would be great to have as a tryout but in like 2,3mil max.
Erik Brännström trade was random in my opinion, since I don't think Ottawa will do that.
Even though great potential, we have a future top 2-4 RD already cooking.
I would keep Labanc. Young, potential and wants to play here in any situation (based on last year paycheck) He has his flaws, but so did the Sharks last year.
I've always rooted for the guys that give that extra little interest in playing in a certain team, even if it means getting payed **** money.
Also guy who can rack up 4 points (1g 3a) in a game 7 against VGK in third period is not a guy you want to give up on yet. (oh the memories)
Anderson is great addition. I believe that he can give that extra punch to this team for the future.
I'm not giving up that much for Anderson - a 2nd - which I would be shocked if CBJ doesn't get for him - and a couple of prospects that still need quite a bit of development to even potentially be NHL ready. Mind, they're still absolutely viable prospects, but San Jose does need at least a couple of players who can play now as opposed to maybe being ready in 2 years. It's extremely important to the well-being of the club that we make a viable push for the post-season & I feel like Anderson could be a real asset in achieving that goal.
As someone pointed out in the comments here, Labanc apparently has better numbers than I'd thought! But even without that, he's absolutely better than most of the Senator's right wingers and would be a huge boost to their power play. He's a good player as is (go watch the 5 minute major power play from 18-19's round 1 game 7 against the Knights for proof of that) and he's absolutely going to get better - I just happen to prefer Anderson's style of play and think he'd be better for the Sharks right now.
As a CBJ fan, I don't think you're wildly off on the value sent our way (though I'd much rather get either of the other 2020 second-rounders). The problem is I don't see Anderson signing for just $3.25M. His QO is $2.1M, and I don't think anything less than 4x4 will satisfy his agent on a multi-year deal. Just my speculation.
If I’m Columbus I might decline it depending on the prospects. Both players listed are good, but older. The only worry about them is that both would be finishing their 4th pro season in NA next year, which means eligible for expansion draft. If I’m Columbus all I really want is the picks. A 2nd and a 3rd should get the trade done easily.
As a CBJ fan, I don't think you're wildly off on the value sent our way (though I'd much rather get either of the other 2020 second-rounders). The problem is I don't see Anderson signing for just $3.25M. His QO is $2.1M, and I don't think anything less than 4x4 will satisfy his agent on a multi-year deal. Just my speculation.
Yeah, I personally think Big Josh is worth more than that! I've really liked his play over the last 3 years (uh, this year excepted) and think he's got so much potential, and yes, his history pre- 2019-20 is stellar, but with the cap situation next season and the uncertainty about his future I just don't think he's going to get 4x4 anywhere (especially in Columbus). I could maybe see 3.5x4 though, and I'd be willing to make that deal even if I would prefer a 3 season contract with the end of it still being in his RFA period.
If I’m Columbus I might decline it depending on the prospects. Both players listed are good, but older. The only worry about them is that both would be finishing their 4th pro season in NA next year, which means eligible for expansion draft. If I’m Columbus all I really want is the picks. A 2nd and a 3rd should get the trade done easily.
Gambrell would be expansion draft eligible as he's played over 40 games in the NHL, but Chekhovich has not and is exempt. Frankly, having someone like Gambrell on the payroll and being able to put him up for the draft is a good thing - it means they could either save the prospects they've been developing or keep him depending on who they like better. There were a lot of teams (including the Sharks!) who made trades exactly for those reasons before the Vegas draft, which is actually why I went for Gambrell over a prospect who wouldn't be eligible! If, however, they only want picks I'd throw in a 2021 3rd and be done with it.
Yeah, I personally think Big Josh is worth more than that! I've really liked his play over the last 3 years (uh, this year excepted) and think he's got so much potential, and yes, his history pre- 2019-20 is stellar, but with the cap situation next season and the uncertainty about his future I just don't think he's going to get 4x4 anywhere (especially in Columbus). I could maybe see 3.5x4 though, and I'd be willing to make that deal even if I would prefer a 3 season contract with the end of it still being in his RFA period.
If Columbus signs Andy for $3.5AAV while getting Gavrikov on a similar (or slightly lower) hit, and then gets PLD for the full 8 year extension, that's a really good recipe for us. (Dubinsky's LTIR eligibility helps, as does Wennberg's buyout cost and/or dealing away one of Murray/Savard/Nutivaara).
If Columbus signs Andy for $3.5AAV while getting Gavrikov on a similar (or slightly lower) hit, and then gets PLD for the full 8 year extension, that's a really good recipe for us. (Dubinsky's LTIR eligibility helps, as does Wennberg's buyout cost and/or dealing away one of Murray/Savard/Nutivaara).
I genuinely can't see buying Wenny out tho - his contract isn't *that* bad given that he's still producing at a decent rate - albiet without a lot of the goals that went to Vegas when Bill left. You'll absolutely be able to move Nuti (I'd take him!) but I think the Dubois contract is gonna be a killer.
I genuinely can't see buying Wenny out tho - his contract isn't *that* bad given that he's still producing at a decent rate - albiet without a lot of the goals that went to Vegas when Bill left. You'll absolutely be able to move Nuti (I'd take him!) but I think the Dubois contract is gonna be a killer.
Re: Wennberg, he's being paid about $5M and producing like a bottom-6 center. He always seems to show JUST enough to make you think he's ready to take that leap... and then you remember he scored just 15 goals over his last 198 regular season games.
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