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Ottawa Senators signed Brady Tkachuk (7 Years / $8,205,714 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Oct. 14 at 5:32 p.m.
#76
Joined: Oct. 2021
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I feel better and better about the Darnell Nurse signing every day. Brady Tkachuk hasn't shown major improvement year to year so far, and seems to be plateauing at a 50-55 pt player over 82 games. In what world is he worth 8.2m? Not saying he cant improve, but based on his first 3 seasons, he shouldn't have had ANY leverage in negotiations. HUGE L for Ottawa
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Oct. 14 at 6:07 p.m.
#77
Joined: Apr. 2018
Posts: 960
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Quoting: KSIxSKULLS
First off Suzuki is a two way CENTER, and last year he had a better PPG/Average than Tkachuk has ever had. Also Tkachuk is a month younger... not a year


125 points for Brady in 198 games is 0.63 ppg on one of the worst teams in the league

82 points for Suzuki in 128 games is 0.64 ppg on one of the better teams in the league

Please... tell me more about how Suzuki's miles better than Brady. Not to mention Brady also almost led the league in both shots and hits in each of the past two seasons. Implying he doesnt impact the game as much as Suzuki because he plays LW and not C is ridiculous especially because Brady takes draws as well. But youre right about the age theyre a *draft* year apart.
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Oct. 14 at 6:08 p.m.
#78
Joined: Apr. 2018
Posts: 960
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Quoting: BCAPP
?? He has...


Sorry this past year he had 5 more points in the same number of games while playing on essentially the second best team in the league while Brady played on the 10th worst. However Brady did almost lead the league in hits and shots in each of the past two seasons so take that however you want.
Oct. 14 at 6:12 p.m.
#79
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 7,162
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Quoting: TheBoyDuddus
Sorry this past year he had 5 more points in the same number of games while playing on essentially the second best team in the league while Brady played on the 10th worst. However Brady did almost lead the league in hits and shots in each of the past two seasons so take that however you want.


Did you just call the Habs the second best team in hockey? They got hot in the playoffs but they were a bad team.

Also for the record Montreal had 159 g last year and Ottawa had 157. Not such a big difference...
Oct. 14 at 6:46 p.m.
#80
I make Articals.
Joined: Feb. 2021
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finally
Oct. 14 at 6:53 p.m.
#81
Joined: Nov. 2018
Posts: 5,633
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Quoting: BrunoOilers1
I feel better and better about the Darnell Nurse signing every day. Brady Tkachuk hasn't shown major improvement year to year so far, and seems to be plateauing at a 50-55 pt player over 82 games. In what world is he worth 8.2m? Not saying he cant improve, but based on his first 3 seasons, he shouldn't have had ANY leverage in negotiations. HUGE L for Ottawa


Nurse contract will age worse than Tkachuk.
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Oct. 14 at 6:58 p.m.
#82
Joined: Aug. 2020
Posts: 1,328
Likes: 416
Such an oddly specific number
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Oct. 14 at 8:03 p.m.
#83
Joined: Mar. 2019
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Not a fan of this deal from the team perspective. I don't know what Dorion was negotiating, but he didn't get the AAV down and also gave the NMC too.

That last part is important because as Melnyk generally does, if he decides he's not paying Brady's 10 million then trading him is the thing to do but with a NMC, Dorion gave Brady full control of what happens.

Not good IMO.
Oct. 14 at 9:06 p.m.
#84
Joined: Jul. 2021
Posts: 373
Likes: 175
Not sure this is great for anybody. I feel like Brady is a bit overrated and isn't worth this much. Yes, he's playing on Ottawa, but he hasn't had the offensive or defensive production to be deserving of this. So it'll be great for Brady if he never can live up to it. But if he can, this is a really long contract for a guy with the ability to earn more. Idk. It's also just long.
Oct. 14 at 9:20 p.m.
#85
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 7,162
Likes: 2,571
Quoting: mondo
You're paying an extra 2 million for the grit and character.


You're paying about 4-5 mil for it.

His scoring gets him 3-4 mil. I would pay 2 mil for said grit and character putting him at 5-6 mil which would compare nicely with Wilson, Dustin Brown, etc
Oct. 15 at 1:18 a.m.
#86
No regretzkys
Joined: Aug. 2019
Posts: 499
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Quoting: pharrow
this is not true.
Matter of fact, one could argue the exact opposite as someone has to score.
Look at a guy like Dzingle who collected points in OTT.....but was a bust everywhere else.
It's the part of the TDL you have to avoid. Staying away from point collectors on bad teams wanting huge returns, because truth is, someone has to score.

Does he score 60 points on a good team..... odds of that are neither here nor there.
This kind of assumptions just aren't true. Just like saying a guy who nets 40 goals only does it because he plays with a great center. That simply isn't true either.

Even if he was a 60 point player. That doesn't get you over 8 mil per.
The difference between 6 and 8 million isn't 7 points.

It's just a high contract. That's all there is to say here. It also sets a bad tone because if someone Stutzle explodes point wise, what's he gonna demand if a guy who puts up points at a 53 point pace an get 8?

You end up with the TOR effect.


Thats a fair rebuttal. I would contest that I am not "assuming", but rather predicting that he could score more on a different team.
Good players create synergy. There haven't been enough good players on Ottawa for Tkachuk to create such synergy.

The contract is high. 100%. It also could set a bad precedent for Stutzle, but I think its obvious Tkachuk is a very important piece of this teams core. Tanglibles and intangible.
Oct. 15 at 9:30 a.m.
#87
couldnt afford 2nd t
Joined: Sep. 2021
Posts: 8
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Brady Tkachuk is not overpaid.

He would be overpaid if 31 other teams signed him to this contract. His value to the Senators exceeds his on ice contributions. He is their most popular player with a jaded fan base. The 'high compete' style of the rebuild has been built around him. He also is the most important voice in the room. Look at the player reactions to Brady committing long term.

At the end of the day, he got a million or so more per season than he should have based on comparable contracts. The thing is, none of the comparable contracts were positioned like he was in terms of their importance to their franchises.

If he was genuinely set on a bridge deal, Dorion did great work to get 7 years while only giving up a NMC and some additional dollars above the 8 million per that he originally was offered. This will be a defining contract for Dorion as a GM. The Tkachuk/Oster combo has a reputation for being one of the hardest to deal with. I did not think the Senators would get 7 years.

There is a reason why if you poll fans who follow the Senators closely, and if you poll fans who don't, the results will be different. People are giving the right answers to the wrong question so to speak. Yes, this is a bad contract based on the expected on ice contributions of Brady Tkachuk, no this is not a bad contract based on the level of overall value Brady Tkachuk brings to the Senators franchise. There is a reason that this is being characterized locally as one of the most important Senators signings of all time.
Oct. 15 at 9:40 a.m.
#88
couldnt afford 2nd t
Joined: Sep. 2021
Posts: 8
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Quoting: pharrow
a "little" high?
Back to back years of low 20 goals and mid 40 points.
Even last year 25 goal and 53 point average.

HTF does that get you over 8 million per?
This shouldn't have been over 6.


You have to account for cap inflation.

The contract Landeskog signed as an RFA might be the best comparable. Landeskog signed for 7 years with an 8.66 cap hit percentage. This was after two ELC seasons where he averaged similar numbers to Brady, also as a power forward, and also with some leadership intangibles. That would work out to a shade over 7x7 when adjusted for the current salary cap ceiling.

Hischier also signed for about that with similar production. Not a power forward, but he is a center and not a winger, so maybe it equals out.

People are reasonably accurate to say he is around a million overpaid per season. That is if you just look at on ice value. Brady's value to the franchise off the ice makes this a good deal. People who don't follow the Senators don't understand how important this signing is to the fan base and to the team the Senators spent the last 5 seasons rebuilding. The alternative was a bridge deal, which likely would have lead to a trade. A trade would rip the soul out of the rebuild and the fan base.
Oct. 15 at 11:45 a.m.
#89
Joined: Apr. 2018
Posts: 960
Likes: 332
Quoting: BCAPP
Did you just call the Habs the second best team in hockey? They got hot in the playoffs but they were a bad team.

Also for the record Montreal had 159 g last year and Ottawa had 157. Not such a big difference...


They went to the finals?? Vegas was supposed to be the 2nd best and they got handled by the Habs so I’d say it’s fair. If they won 3 more games they would’ve been the best team in hockey last year….

Regardless of goals for, my point is that they’re producing at an almost identical clip despite the fact that Suzuki’s playing a better team with better players. Despite that, most people on here are hating because Brady got 500k more and 1 year less on the contract. “Great” contract for Suzuki but “terrible” contract for Tkachuk.
Oct. 15 at 1:07 p.m.
#90
Go Sens
Joined: Oct. 2020
Posts: 2,327
Likes: 702
It's about time they got it done. It's still 2M over what he's worth though IMO.
Oct. 15 at 1:09 p.m.
#91
Go Sens
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Quoting: BCAPP
Did you just call the Habs the second best team in hockey? They got hot in the playoffs but they were a bad team.

Also for the record Montreal had 159 g last year and Ottawa had 157. Not such a big difference...


HE SAID THEY WERE ONE OF THE BETTER TEAMS IN THE LEAGUE NOT THE BEST, AND ALSO NO SANE PERSON THINKS THE HABS ARE THE BEST TEAM IN HOCKEY RIGHT NOW.
Oct. 15 at 1:13 p.m.
#92
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 7,162
Likes: 2,571
Quoting: JetsCanesSens
HE SAID THEY WERE ONE OF THE BETTER TEAMS IN THE LEAGUE NOT THE BEST, AND ALSO NO SANE PERSON THINKS THE HABS ARE THE BEST TEAM IN HOCKEY RIGHT NOW.


First why are you yelling. Second he called them the second essentially the second best team in hockey

This was his post


Sorry this past year he had 5 more points in the same number of games while playing on essentially the second best team in the league while Brady played on the 10th worst. However Brady did almost lead the league in hits and shots in each of the past two seasons so take that however you want
Oct. 15 at 1:16 p.m.
#93
Go Sens
Joined: Oct. 2020
Posts: 2,327
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Quoting: BCAPP
First why are you yelling. Second he called them the second essentially the second best team in hockey

This was his post


Sorry this past year he had 5 more points in the same number of games while playing on essentially the second best team in the league while Brady played on the 10th worst. However Brady did almost lead the league in hits and shots in each of the past two seasons so take that however you want


Sorry Mr perfect. I didn't realize it was all capitals until I submitted the post. And I still wouldn't call the Habs the 2nd best team.
Oct. 15 at 1:34 p.m.
#94
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 7,162
Likes: 2,571
Quoting: JetsCanesSens
Sorry Mr perfect. I didn't realize it was all capitals until I submitted the post. And I still wouldn't call the Habs the 2nd best team.


I wouldn't either. (S)He did. I was calling the other poster out on it
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Oct. 15 at 5:47 p.m.
#95
Banned
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Quoting: budgeteam
You have to account for cap inflation.

The contract Landeskog signed as an RFA might be the best comparable. Landeskog signed for 7 years with an 8.66 cap hit percentage. This was after two ELC seasons where he averaged similar numbers to Brady, also as a power forward, and also with some leadership intangibles. That would work out to a shade over 7x7 when adjusted for the current salary cap ceiling.

Hischier also signed for about that with similar production. Not a power forward, but he is a center and not a winger, so maybe it equals out.

People are reasonably accurate to say he is around a million overpaid per season. That is if you just look at on ice value. Brady's value to the franchise off the ice makes this a good deal. People who don't follow the Senators don't understand how important this signing is to the fan base and to the team the Senators spent the last 5 seasons rebuilding. The alternative was a bridge deal, which likely would have lead to a trade. A trade would rip the soul out of the rebuild and the fan base.


Landeskog deal is a horrible example. 1st he's a UFA, 2nd, he had 3 seasons of 30 goal pace before he signed it, 3rd, two of those seasons he was at a 70 point pace, Which he signed in july 2021, and he only got 7.
Brady is a RFA, he's never sniffed 30, and never sniffed a 70+ point pace. If you were trying to make the case why this should have been at 6 range, you just did.
As for Hischier , that's an oranges to apples. So I'm not going there. Centers will always be paid more. That's a statistical average though out the league.
As for the intangibles. see below. Intangibles is a two way street for a guy who's surrounded by a lot of young talent that is probably more skilled at putting points up than him.

Quoting: MadLin27
Thats a fair rebuttal. I would contest that I am not "assuming", but rather predicting that he could score more on a different team.
Good players create synergy. There haven't been enough good players on Ottawa for Tkachuk to create such synergy.

The contract is high. 100%. It also could set a bad precedent for Stutzle, but I think its obvious Tkachuk is a very important piece of this teams core. Tanglibles and intangible.


I get what you are saying here, but part of the "intangible" is also the effect it has on the teams future cap. This team has a LOT of good young prospects. If it can't get fair deals now, what are they all to think?
Like I said it's the TOR effect.
If there is one thing that can kill an awesome rebuild job that they have done, it's when the cap gets crazy.
I know this is a really good young team stacked with talent, no one has to convince me of that. But the future is not just Brady, it's keeping the WHOLE team together. That in the end is going to take cap magic especially when you are handing out overpays. Because you can bet, everyone is looking at it like Lunch time, I want to eat too.
I get what the player brings to the ice, I just don't agree that it's A. worth as much as he got over paid, and B. in the best interest of the whole team going forward. Because soon there will be a lot of mouths to feed., and a lot of them could be demanding a lot more money partially by using this as a comparable if they pan out to the players they are expected to.
I don't think anyone in OTT wants to be paying Stutzle McDavid money, or looking at all the top round defensemen the team is stacked with ending up getting contracts like McAvoy just got.
At some point if this team is going to be successful, they need the younger guys to buy in, not all cash out. I think this contract sets a bad example. But that's my take.
Oct. 16 at 7:15 p.m.
#96
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Quoting: MadLin27
Thats a fair rebuttal. I would contest that I am not "assuming", but rather predicting that he could score more on a different team.
Good players create synergy. There haven't been enough good players on Ottawa for Tkachuk to create such synergy.

The contract is high. 100%. It also could set a bad precedent for Stutzle, but I think its obvious Tkachuk is a very important piece of this teams core. Tanglibles and intangible.


Suzuki $63MM over 8 years, the 8th is $6MM. Subtract that $6MM year, and it's $57MM for 7 years, $500K less than Brady over the 7 seasons.
 
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