Fantilli turns Pro and MTL buys out Armia

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Created by: Billy316

Team: 2023-24 Montreal Canadiens

Initial Creation Date: Mar. 13, 2023

Published: Mar. 13, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

This post is my Prediction on what will happen so i can see how close i was.
If it was moves i wanted purely i'd Flip the FLA pick to STL and probably target Debrincat or PLD
But i feel neither ultimately ends up in MTL although im sure they use MTL as a Stalking Horse like many French Players have.
(Briere, Matheson , Perron, even Demers among many others)

I think MTL pick 5th OA is upgraded via Lotto for 3rd OA pick behind CHI and SJS. I think they select Bedard and Michkov. Michkov who's tearing up the KHL since his loan to team that can play him(went from TBL to CAR basically). SJS can afford to wait as skill wise all contract issues aside there are 2 elite players in this draft then a bunch of Future All Star and league leaders. But the gap between Bedard/Michkov and everyone else is wide. For a team just starting a rebuild the needed timeline doesnt intimidate them (atleast i dont think it would unless im wrong about the rebuild and its just a retool?)

-3rd OA MTL take Adam Fantilli

-15th OA MTL takes Eduard Sale or Dalibor Dvorsky rather then trade down when VAN and ARZ pick outside predicted rankings taking Reinbacher and Sandin-Pellikka .Similar to the free fall of Chychrun when BUF took A.Nylander over project Mikhail Sergachev. It happened again with Caufield when DET took Seider outta no where as i think the 3rd ranked D that year at 5th OA(clearly smart) but it started a domino effected

-28th OA MTL takes Michael Harabal(G)- Future Starter IMO but like 4-5 years work needed.

-37th OA MTL takes Oliver Bonk(RD)- Josh Gorges type who covers offensive Defensman.

Draft picks after that are a much longer conversation and i tap out at 2 rounds .
Onto the next problem to tackle being Roster Space and that means Armia is gone.

Armia's Buyout might span 4 years but
-34K year 1
-1.03m year 2
-143m year 3 and 4

Well IMO is just worth it to clear 3.35m on the high end and just under 2m cap on the low end.
If we could bury his contract for that cap hit , i'd keep him but his contract forced this conclusion.

I figure a gamble on Peterson could pay off given Sean Burke helped turn Smith and Dubnyks career's around as well as Montembaults for that matter.
Whats the harm in gambling on Peterson in a possible 3 goalie tandem as we have our AHL team close for call ups anyways if needed if he overachieves.
We can also keep him down to Laval and still have Burke work closely with him until Allen gets injured again
No real downside to the deal unless you look at it as MTL adding a year term .
Which is true but i see it as worst case Primeau is in a tandem with one of the AHL's best Veteran Goalies.

As i know someone will ask "what about Ylonen?"
Consistency is an issue but he'll earn his starts until Gally gets injured in November as per tradition.
Once Gally's on IR he'll have all the minutes he can handle and more.

Same idea with Harris but he'll cycle in for Barron, Kovacevic and Xhekaj often enough until Matheson goes on IR again.
Well really until anyone goes on IR again i just feel it'll be Matheson again

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST		YEARS	CAP HIT
Struble, Jayden		2	$900,000

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Allard, Frédéric	1	$800,000
Beaudin, Nicolas	1	$800,000
Caufield, Cole	8	$7,875,000
Condotta, Lucas	2	$950,000
Harvey-Pinard, Rafaël	2	$950,000
Pezzetta, Michael	2	$950,000
Richard, Anthony	1	$950,000
Teasdale, Joël	1	$950,000
Ylönen, Jesse	1	$950,000

CREATED		YEARS	CAP HIT
Fantilli, Adam		3	$950,000

Trades

MTL

2023 1st round pick (COL)

Additional Details:

MTL trades Jake Evans with 2 years remaiing on 1.7m deal in exchange for their 2023 1st round pick currently ranked 19th OA but i expect to be 25th -32nd overall at the time this post happens as it starts at the Draft.

Im Calling it the 28th OA pick assuming Landeskog is healthy for the playoffs.

COL

Evans, Jake
2024 2nd round pick (COL)

Additional Details:

MTL gives back the 2nd from the Lehkonen deal in the Evans trade

MTL

-If ARZ can flip Hoffman then MTL's Conditional 3rd reverts back and ARZ pays nothing for Hoffman or RS.

-IF ARZ flips Hoffman for a deal involving a 1st round pick then the 2024 3rd round pick (ARZ) becomes a 2024 2nd round pick(MTL)ARZ gets someone to help them with meeting their cap floor who they can play for 3-4 months then flip for a profit .

ARI

Hoffman, Mike ($2,250,000 retained)

Additional Details:

This deal helps MTL Give RHP a 1 year window to solidify himself before he get pushed out by anyone player like Slafkovsky , Ferrell ,Roy or any number of the special teams guys who will eat up his minutes.The idea here is to maybe take a little less now but this additional year of building up RHP's value like CHI did with Hagel before cashing in big.If we can get RHP to that 20 goal mark we're sitting pretty.

MTL

Additional Details:

LAK can eliminate a year term with Eddy
Add experience in a Cup Tandem even if its just to bury him and save 1m per year keeping him as insurance

LAK

Additional Details:

Eddy or Allen

Buyouts

Karl Alzner: $833,333
Joel Armia: $33,333

Retained Salary Transactions

Mike Hoffman: $2,250,000 (50%)

Buried

Cal Petersen: $3,850,000 ($5,000,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$82,500,000	$67,467,499	$1,170,000	$4,275,000	$15,032,501

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Caufield, Cole $7,875,000$7,875,000 LW, RW UFA - 8	Suzuki, Nick $7,875,000$7,875,000 C UFA - 7	Dach, Kirby $3,362,500$3,362,500 C, RW RFA - 3
Slafkovsky, Juraj $950,000$950,000 ($3,500,000$4M) RW, LW RFA - 2	Fantilli, Adam $950,000$950,000	Anderson, Josh $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 4
Harvey-Pinard, Rafaël $950,000$950,000 LW, RW RFA - 2	Dvorak, Christian $4,450,000$4,450,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Gallagher, Brendan $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 4
	Beck, Owen $885,000$885,000 ($80,000$80K) C RFA - 3	Teasdale, Joël $950,000$950,000 RW, LW UFA
Pezzetta, Michael $950,000$950,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Pitlick, Rem $1,100,000$1,100,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Ylönen, Jesse $950,000$950,000 RW, LW RFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Matheson, Michael $4,875,000$4,875,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 3	Savard, David $3,500,000$3,500,000 RD UFA - 2	Montembeault, Samuel $1,000,000$1,000,000 G UFA - 1
Guhle, Kaiden $863,333$863,333 ($420,000$420K) LD/RD RFA - 2	Barron, Justin $925,000$925,000 ($275,000$275K) RD RFA - 1	Allen, Jake $1,925,000$1,925,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Xhekaj, Arber $828,333$828,333 LD/RD RFA - 1	Kovacevic, Johnathan $766,667$766,667 RD UFA - 2
Harris, Jordan $1,400,000$1,400,000 LD/RD RFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		Price, Carey $10,500,000$10,500,000 G NMC UFA - 3

Mar. 13, 2023 at 12:15 p.m.

drambui

Joined: Feb. 2022

Posts: 3,816

Likes: 2,507

expect to get a cap from other teams this year aswell! monahan or dadonov style.

Mar. 13, 2023 at 12:23 p.m.

danielcoe

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 1,258

Likes: 283

I like alot of this.. I think many things here makes sense. Fantilli probably wouldnt be ready and they wont rush him though.. so they wont trade evans they will need him unless they resign monahan to a chaeap one year deal.

Mar. 13, 2023 at 12:28 p.m.

danielcoe

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 1,258

Likes: 283

why not fli[p the florida pick with something else and get PLD from winnipeg.. that might make sense if their isnt a player you really want at 15. I like dubois and suzuki down the middle and dach on the wing and backup center in case of injuries..you could give winnipeg one of the young LD on the team but not Guhle plus the pick. I would not pay more than that as we can get him for free the following year

Mar. 13, 2023 at 12:30 p.m.

HabsFan33

Joined: Mar. 2018

Posts: 219

Likes: 46

Couple of things...

Your idea about Petersen is interesting and could maybe work except for one major flaw - Sean Burke no longer works for the Canadiens organization. He's now the Director of Goaltending for the Vegas Golden Knights.

Also, in your proposed line up, Beck and Teasdale will definitely NOT be in the NHL next year. If we are lucky to get Fantilli, I don't see the rush in playing him in Montreal. That is unless he dominates in camp. With Beck and Teasdale not in the lineup, absolutely no reason to buyout Armia. We'll have plenty of cap space so there's no need to do that yet. What he needs in the opportunity to play more meaningful minutes in the hopes he can build his consistency. Every year is the same for him in camp. He's always tagged for the fourth line. Tough for anyone to progress if you know you have no shot at moving up in the lineup.

Billy316 liked this.

Mar. 13, 2023 at 12:34 p.m.

Anus_McLeod

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 3,584

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If Colorado moves their first, it's not going to be for Evans. I like him as a player, and understood that a 2nd is going back to the Avs, but a 1st just simply isn't part of the conversation imo.

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Mar. 13, 2023 at 12:41 p.m.

Billy316

Thread Starter

Jesus Christ Is King

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Quoting: danielcoe

That would change the Dynamic with Fantilli out a year
I stick by Trading Evans though.

Re-signing Monahan might be the smartest call here.
Alternatively i could just trade Armia for Faksa its not really much difference in cap or production or role.
But it would give MTL a 4th line Center with Size , good faceoff metrics and similar buck battle wins in the corners.

I personally feel Fantilli is ready but playing with his brother 1 more year wont hurt especially if he loses the Hobey Baker to Farrell or Hutson who are in the running.
Its not like he needs to mature Physically and as a Rookie he's lead the NCAA all year , no one's passed him even if they got 1 point away he'd have a 3 point night .

But again leaving him down does no harm and if we can get Monahan on a 1 year deal with a full NMC guaranteeing him Playoffs wherever he chooses, we can make a profit still.

danielcoe liked this.

Mar. 13, 2023 at 12:46 p.m.

Billy316

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Quoting: Anus_McLeod

If Colorado moves their first, it's not going to be for Evans. I like him as a player, and understood that a 2nd is going back to the Avs, but a 1st just simply isn't part of the conversation imo.

Its a 28th pick , whats it really take to make this kosher?
You're cap strapped right ? What about Ylonen or Pezetta or RHP?
Or does a 2nd in 2023 11 picks behind your 1st balance it better?

I can always acquire a 2nd and draft Bonk later he's not projected by most to go this high anyways.

Mar. 13, 2023 at 12:53 p.m.

NMAvsFan

Representing the 505

Joined: Sep. 2020

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Quoting: Billy316

They need to save that pick as part of a package to address bigger issues up front - they shouldn't be wasting it on bottom-six guys

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Mar. 13, 2023 at 12:59 p.m.

Anus_McLeod

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 3,584

Likes: 3,444

Quoting: Billy316

The team is cash strapped for sure, but that's a reason they'll want to keep their firsts. The Avs don't have a ton of success with guys in the later rounds, and they'll likely need some talent on ELC to keep their window open.

In regards to your question, I don't think adding to the current trade helps much. Changing it to the 2023 pick might, but it depends on what else the Avs FO has in mind. They may very well want to try and use their young players (Foudy and Meyers) to fill out the bottom six for cheap and go after someone who can add a little more scoring. Also not sure if Montreal would have the appetite to do that in a deeper draft.

Long story short, trading with Colorado is difficult because of their lack of both assets and cap space. They just don't have more than one or two trades before those thing catch up and they're totally stuck. So unless it's what the FO considers the right move, it probably doesn't happen.

Billy316 liked this.

Mar. 13, 2023 at 1:01 p.m.

#10

Billy316

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Quoting: HabsFan33

Yupp thats a major flaw , not interest in Peterson anymore

Mar. 13, 2023 at 1:05 p.m.

#11

Billy316

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Jesus Christ Is King

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Quoting: NMAvsFan

They need to save that pick as part of a package to address bigger issues up front - they shouldn't be wasting it on bottom-six guys

Cap situation means to do so they'll trade consistency in hopes of TDL finds that can put them over at a Bargain like Eller.
Im not saying it wont work , there's variables i like about that deal 100%
But Jake in his role as his cap will do a better job there then anyone you can find at that price .
It offers you flexibility in a sense

Mar. 13, 2023 at 1:26 p.m.

#12

BankersBox

Joined: Feb. 2019

Posts: 457

Likes: 316

A lot of interesting thoughts, well put.

Two things.. MTL probably needs 2OA to get Fantilli..The issues with Russia might deter some teams picking Michkov, i could see Michkov sliding to 4th even after Leo Carlsson.

Im also not confident Sale or Dvorsky are still there come 15OA.

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Mar. 13, 2023 at 1:29 p.m.

#13

MNKingsFan

Moose

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LA accepts

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Mar. 13, 2023 at 2:04 p.m.

#14

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

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Quoting: Billy316

You can find a player like evans easily. He's dime a dozen.

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Mar. 13, 2023 at 2:11 p.m.

#15

Billy316

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Quoting: BankersBox

Depends on the Team that has the pick what the needs are.
No one thought Slafkovsky over Wright until MTL was slotted as 1st OA pick.
Same thing happened with Hischier and Patrick.

It happens a lot actually
SJS in this scenario wins 2nd OA
In SJS position Michkov playing meaningful pro minutes before signing his ELC at 22-23 is a bonus not a deturrent.
They can build a team making its 3/4 or more out of their Rebuild when he'll arrive.

If CBJ , ANA or ARZ get that pick im not sure they'd pick Michkov.
MTL i think would for the same reasons SJS would as would CHI IMO.
Whats the difference between their expected start times in the NHL with Fantilli and Michkov?
Unless Fantili starts in a top 6 role next year then wouldnt Fantilli be in his Sophmore year when Michkov is a Rookie?

If the Skill level between Michkov and Fantilli wasnt so huge , i'd 100% agree.
But Michkov head to head in his last WJC tournament he was allower to attend the year before his last even
He doubled Bedards goal total with 12 for 3rd place all time behind only Caufield and Ovechkin.

Any Team passing on that does so with their own future jobs on the line IMO
You choose a Reinhart over a Drisatl you're done in this league, just ask Tim Murray
There's no coming back from that.

Not that Reinhart horrible
Its the difference between an Elite Talent and a top 20 League Leader /All Star type
Elite is the guy that can leading the entire NHL in scoring .

As much as i love Fantilli he'll never be Elite.
If Michkov falls to 3rd i'd gladly take him
But unlike my other posts where i do stuff like that.
This post as i mentioned above is a prediction im looking to reflect on post draft.
The trades were unneeded but after i bought out Armia i decided to try making the roster look semi competent

Mar. 13, 2023 at 2:12 p.m.

#16

Billy316

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Quoting: dgibb10

You can find a player like evans easily. He's dime a dozen.

Ok , Easily Name 10 with his cap/term and production that would help a cap strapped team

Mar. 13, 2023 at 2:13 p.m.

#17

Billy316

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Quoting: MNKingsFan

LA accepts

Yeah it seemed like a Genius idea until i realize Burke bailed lol
That said it just made the odds a lot longer , but still plenty of upside.
Besides swapping a LD for a RD is still ultimately worth it .

Mar. 13, 2023 at 2:23 p.m.

#18

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

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Quoting: Billy316

Ok , Easily Name 10 with his cap/term and production that would help a cap strapped team

He's a meh 4th liner. Look at any team, find guys making under 2. Boom you have jake evans. SIgn one in free agency. problem solved

Mar. 13, 2023 at 2:29 p.m.

#19

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

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Quoting: Billy316

Ok , Easily Name 10 with his cap/term and production that would help a cap strapped team

And just going off the devils alone (my team) you could look at Mcleod Bastian Haula Yegor (this year+next) Boqvist Mercer (if signed to bridge) Holtz Lazar who you could keep around for similar term to Evans to be as or more productive hockey. And Zetterlund who they just traded away.
That's 9 and i went through a grand total of 1 team

Mar. 13, 2023 at 2:48 p.m.

#20

BankersBox

Joined: Feb. 2019

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Quoting: Billy316

Again, a lot of good points.

It sounds like Michkov has a similar plan to Kaprivoz. Come to North America when you are physically and mentally ready, and I agree that the timeline for that is not an issue for most teams in the 2OA spot.

But it would be negligent to not acknowledge that political circumstances may have implications on the player getting to North America.

Mar. 13, 2023 at 2:49 p.m.

#21

NMAvsFan

Representing the 505

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Quoting: Billy316

I can't see them trying to address their issues in UFA - they definitely don't have the space and the market is thin. I could see them packaging the 1st and a good roster player with term and a decent cap hit to try to find a way to help themselves. They can probably get a player like Evans without giving up a 1st.

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Mar. 13, 2023 at 3:01 p.m.

#22

Billy316

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Quoting: dgibb10

44% of all NJD faceofs are taken by Haula and Mcleod.
So they both play 4th line Center is what you're saying ?

If Boqvist is a Center , so is Josh Anderson and Gallagher.
Being forced to lose faceoffs at a 35 and 37% win rate at 350-550 draws isnt a strong argument.
By that logic Drouin's a great Center , said no one ever.

I'll give you 2 of those people you have signed that you named.
But Haula is sketchy as he's playing 2nd line minutes on most teams
Mcleod is legit a 4th Liner and IMO probably one of the NHL's best just like Sissons was in NSH before he grew into a Middle 6 guy.

You're offering up better quality in RFA's and a guy who's not been called a 4th line center since Minnisota. He may have been inconsistent and had stints there but never stays there.

Faksa has been playing 4th line for like 5 + years
Bellmare has been playing 4th line Center for a Decade.

That's what i was talking about.
But if you can find a better player who can win faceoffs who is AVAILABLE then i'd do it to.
But what you did was look only and go "there's a C by his name , all C's are created equal , clearly"

But now that you brought it up how much is Mcleod going for since he's Available?

Mar. 13, 2023 at 3:03 p.m.

#23

Billy316

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Jesus Christ Is King

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Quoting: NMAvsFan

So you're saying they'll sacrifice Girard to try and find Cap freedom and the key to your center issues then?
That makes sense

Also Evans isnt really worth a 1st more or less 15-25 spots in a draft and waiting a year.
But i get your point

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Mar. 13, 2023 at 3:49 p.m.

#24

Billy316

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Quoting: BankersBox

Based on ?

Kaprizov like Romanov stayed to sign on to the TBL of the KHL same as Kaprizov was leading a Stacked team and he was in a prime position to win a cup before he turned 19 in the 2nd biggest league in the world with KK. He signed a 2 year deal when he was still being ranked 115th NHL Central Scouting and 179th FC Hockey with a late surge after the WJC that lead Bob Mckenzie to be the only top level Analyst to even rank him 83rd OA but this was long after he already signed.

So Michkov signs with the undisputed Top KHL team immediately gets sent to the dead last team .
Literally the best team to the absolute worst by a long shot with by double digit points behind the next worse team.
NHL and KHL severed ties so there's no reason they would reject Michkov is he wanted out.

Cant imagine while they go on to win a Championship that He'll be happy about it when his Contract's 1 years suspension ends after the season and he has to report back to that team.He's had a long 2 years and got kicked while he was down and banished to HC Sochi where Brandon Gormley is there top Pro level guy on his 3rd struggling expansion team in 3 years.

People assume he's gotten the Karpizov treatment
Really they treated him more like NHL does with its first OA pick pairing them with the worst teams lol
Traditionally the KHL isnt like that especially with the few Stars they get.

Mar. 13, 2023 at 5:52 p.m.

#25

NMAvsFan

Representing the 505

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Quoting: Billy316

It's possible although I think they should trade Toews - they can't afford to re-sign him and he'd bring back a lot. I don't think they'll do that but maybe they'll consider it.

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