5th overall selection Habs select Will Smith (if Michkov falls to #5 I don’t see how you pass over him, so picking Smith is based on Michkov not being available)
Buyout Mike Hoffman. Nobody is going to pay for him (even at half retained). His buyout is actually quite reasonable, just under $1.2mil for 2 seasons.
The PLD trade:
The way I see it, if I’m GM Kent Hughes, going on year 2 of the rebuild, it makes zero sense to trade “premium assets” for a player that everyone would consider a luxury more then a necessity for the Habs. So all 1st rd picks and Habs solid prospects (Kidney, Roy, Mailloux, Heineman, Beck, Farrell, Mesar, etc.) are ALL off the table.
I already feel like trading the 37th overall pick, Tuch, and Ylonen a generous enough offer. Dvorak obviously being involved for cap and roster reasons.
For those saying that WIN should just sign PLD for 1 year and trade him as a rental and that he will be valued as a rental. I can assure you that will not happen. The risk of signing PLD to a 1 year extension and having him get injured, then losing him for nothing, makes this scenario practically impossible. The approach the Jets will take this offseason will be similar to CGY’s situation with Tkachuk. Meaning any acquiring team will be looking to sign Dubois to a long term extension. This is the only way for the Jets to maximize his value in a trade. So to actually determine the possible value the Jets could get is to establish who would PLD be willing to sign an extension with. The more teams Dubois is ok with signing long term with, the better value WIN shall get.
So the ONLY scenario I see PLD being acquired by MTL at the price I’m suggesting, is if MTL is the only team on Dubois’ extension list. If PLD is ok signing in, for example, LAK, BOS, and VGK. The Habs would basically be priced out in a bidding war. I don’t see losing out on Dubois being an issue for Habs fans however. As I mentioned, PLD would be a luxury.
Now for the far-fetched PLD trade proposal! Two conditions need to happen for this to be considered.
#1 The Jets decide to tear things down and rebuild after losing in the 1st rd of the playoffs.
#2 The Habs win the Connor Bedard sweepstakes and decide to expedite the rebuild and be competitive next season.
Trade:
WIN acquire:
Florida 2023 1st rd pick
Montreal 2024 1st rd pick (Top 5 protected)
Owen Beck or Riley Kidney (you choose)
Jordan Harris or Logan Mailloux (you choose)
Christian Dvorak (cap / roster move)
Jake Allen (cap / roster move)
MTL acquire:
Connor Hellebuyck
Pierre-Luc Dubois
Morgan Barron
I don’t see Edmundson getting a 1st. Habs fans hoping to get a Chiarot type deal, but I think it’ll more closely resemble the Scandella deal from a few years back. Maybe a bit better.
"For those saying that WIN should just sign PLD for 1 year and trade him as a rental and that he will be valued as a rental. I can assure you that will not happen. The risk of signing PLD to a 1 year extension and having him get injured, then losing him for nothing, makes this scenario practically impossible."
I get a kick out of how hard you guys are working to make it seem like Winnipeg should just hand PLD over to the Habs. You're making up the funniest scenarios trying to justify this stuff, and it's absolutely hilarious. The foolishly short-sighted very creatively imagined "Only a team that PLD would be willing to sign an extension with will be interested in acquiring him!" thought absolutely leaves out the fact that every. friggin. year. there are a large number of players that are on expiring contracts, that end up getting traded throughout the season, the majority of whom aren't extended.
If that's the best offer, Winnipeg holds on to him until there's something better, or keeps him and let's him walk, because acquiring a similar player at the deadline as a rental to replace him would cost them some sort of quality prospect/picks, unlike this.
Los Angeles can't afford Edmundson at his full cap hit, doesn't generally acquire rentals (especially those who have been injured and are coming off a bad year), and isn't about to trade what is now the Kings' first pick in this year's draft for him.
"For those saying that WIN should just sign PLD for 1 year and trade him as a rental and that he will be valued as a rental. I can assure you that will not happen. The risk of signing PLD to a 1 year extension and having him get injured, then losing him for nothing, makes this scenario practically impossible."
I get a kick out of how hard you guys are working to make it seem like Winnipeg should just hand PLD over to the Habs. You're making up the funniest scenarios trying to justify this stuff, and it's absolutely hilarious. The foolishly short-sighted very creatively imagined "Only a team that PLD would be willing to sign an extension with will be interested in acquiring him!" thought absolutely leaves out the fact that every. friggin. year. there are a large number of players that are on expiring contracts, that end up getting traded throughout the season, the majority of whom aren't extended.
If that's the best offer, Winnipeg holds on to him until there's something better, or keeps him and let's him walk, because acquiring a similar player at the deadline as a rental to replace him would cost them some sort of quality prospect/picks, unlike this.
How many times in history has a team traded a top prospect, a first rounder and another piece for 20 games of a star player? Every other year at least.
Your comment perfectly sums up the issue many Jets fans have with many Habs fans. They don't get that. Winnipeg can lose him for free, so lets get them scrubs. No; Winnipeg can easily get a package like I mentioned from a contending team, so it makes no sense to give him away for pennies on the dollar.
WIN will be lucky to get anything IMO. concerning the FLO and CGY blockbuster, no big winners yet even though FLO squeaked into the playoffs.
Here are 2 examples of what WIN may go through unless they make a trade with the Habs at the draft for what is mentioned above or similar.
(1) PLD walks like Tavares did, (Tavares was a FA); NYI gets nothing. Result = WIN losses out
(2) PLD stated he wants out like ROY did, (Roy was still under contract); WIN trades him for whatever they can get. Result = WIN losses trade but gets back something
Choose your poison!
"For those saying that WIN should just sign PLD for 1 year and trade him as a rental and that he will be valued as a rental. I can assure you that will not happen. The risk of signing PLD to a 1 year extension and having him get injured, then losing him for nothing, makes this scenario practically impossible."
It literally makes more sense to sign him and risk him getting injured than to take this offer..... Because if he doesn't get injured and again thats more likely than not, they'd get a better return than this. They can also trade him at any time, doesn't have to be at the TDL. Whenever he's healthy.
Im all for not offering the moon to get PLD because I agree the Habs are in no position to be paying for premium assets right now either but these asinine "assertions" by my fellow Habs fans are ... well ...... asinine. It almost feels like an overreaction at this point.
If WPG is this bent over in any PLD trade to MTL than why does MTL have to offer anything at all? Wouldn't WPG have to accept anything we give them? If this is the case, than the offer would be Armia and a 7th round pick..... They wouldn't even get Tuch or Ylonen. Obviously that is not the case though because we all know it takes two to tango and WPG has other options.
Conversely, WPG doesn't have to sign him AT ALL. They can trade his rights to another team and let them sign him. If a team like Carolina gets him they can sign and not worry about him getting injured because they signed him for the entire year and to play in the playoffs. Not as trade bait.
MTL would probably have to pay the Florida 1st round pick + to get PLD right now but no one is forcing them to do it. The plausible and "right" option here is to simply wait and sign PLD as a free agent. WPG will get a decent value in trade to a contender team who trades for PLD this year and PLD gets signs with MTL next offseason. Everyone's happy.
"For those saying that WIN should just sign PLD for 1 year and trade him as a rental and that he will be valued as a rental. I can assure you that will not happen. The risk of signing PLD to a 1 year extension and having him get injured, then losing him for nothing, makes this scenario practically impossible."
It literally makes more sense to sign him and risk him getting injured than to take this offer..... Because if he doesn't get injured and again thats more likely than not, they'd get a better return than this. They can also trade him at any time, doesn't have to be at the TDL. Whenever he's healthy.
Im all for not offering the moon to get PLD because I agree the Habs are in no position to be paying for premium assets right now either but these asinine "assertions" by my fellow Habs fans are ... well ...... asinine. It almost feels like an overreaction at this point.
If WPG is this bent over in any PLD trade to MTL than why does MTL have to offer anything at all? Wouldn't WPG have to accept anything we give them? If this is the case, than the offer would be Armia and a 7th round pick..... They wouldn't even get Tuch or Ylonen. Obviously that is not the case though because we all know it takes two to tango and WPG has other options.
Conversely, WPG doesn't have to sign him AT ALL. They can trade his rights to another team and let them sign him. If a team like Carolina gets him they can sign and not worry about him getting injured because they signed him for the entire year and to play in the playoffs. Not as trade bait.
MTL would probably have to pay the Florida 1st round pick + to get PLD right now but no one is forcing them to do it. The plausible and "right" option here is to simply wait and sign PLD as a free agent. WPG will get a decent value in trade to a contender team who trades for PLD this year and PLD gets signs with MTL next offseason. Everyone's happy.
everyone is happy but winnipeg doesnt get a high draft pick from a contender the pick will be 25-32 overall... and not 17th overall... and that makes a big difference... and many contenders dont have a first in the 2023 draft as well.. So that is why chevy will try to dance with montreal ...... Montreal will trade flo pick dvorak and a prospect and maybe another later pick if they get him with an extension under 8mil...Without the extension montreal justs waits till next year
WIN will be lucky to get anything IMO. concerning the FLO and CGY blockbuster, no big winners yet even though FLO squeaked into the playoffs.
Here are 2 examples of what WIN may go through unless they make a trade with the Habs at the draft for what is mentioned above or similar.
(1) PLD walks like Tavares did, (Tavares was a FA); NYI gets nothing. Result = WIN losses out
(2) PLD stated he wants out like ROY did, (Roy was still under contract); WIN trades him for whatever they can get. Result = WIN losses trade but gets back something
Choose your poison!
Or there's (3): Winnipeg signs PLD to his $6M QO, knowing that they're not going to re-sign him, so they flip at the deadline for a better version of the Bo Horvat package (1st round pick, good prospect, and decent roster player) instead of taking a 2nd rounder and two lesser prospects, like this deal offers.
everyone is happy but winnipeg doesnt get a high draft pick from a contender the pick will be 25-32 overall... and not 17th overall... and that makes a big difference... and many contenders dont have a first in the 2023 draft as well.. So that is why chevy will try to dance with montreal ...... Montreal will trade flo pick dvorak and a prospect and maybe another later pick if they get him with an extension under 8mil...Without the extension montreal justs waits till next year
Dvorak, the Florida pick, and a prospect could work. That's a legit offer.
Dvorak, the Florida pick, and a prospect could work. That's a legit offer.
yes and you might need like another 3rd round pick depending on how good the prospect is? But it is as fair as a offer as chevy will get at the draft... It depends if chevy is going to retool or whether he is going for it next year... If they are not retool then he will a couple of players player in the NHL right now... but most people think winnipeg should retool and then the picks make more sense.....they have one more year and then sheifele and Helleybuck and dubois could all be gone... and they cant risk all 3 of them playing out their final year.... because if they in the playofff mix than they cant trade them and they lose them for nothing.. So it will be a difficult summer for chevy as he has alot of decisions to make.
"For those saying that WIN should just sign PLD for 1 year and trade him as a rental and that he will be valued as a rental. I can assure you that will not happen. The risk of signing PLD to a 1 year extension and having him get injured, then losing him for nothing, makes this scenario practically impossible."
It literally makes more sense to sign him and risk him getting injured than to take this offer..... Because if he doesn't get injured and again thats more likely than not, they'd get a better return than this. They can also trade him at any time, doesn't have to be at the TDL. Whenever he's healthy.
Im all for not offering the moon to get PLD because I agree the Habs are in no position to be paying for premium assets right now either but these asinine "assertions" by my fellow Habs fans are ... well ...... asinine. It almost feels like an overreaction at this point.
If WPG is this bent over in any PLD trade to MTL than why does MTL have to offer anything at all? Wouldn't WPG have to accept anything we give them? If this is the case, than the offer would be Armia and a 7th round pick..... They wouldn't even get Tuch or Ylonen. Obviously that is not the case though because we all know it takes two to tango and WPG has other options.
Conversely, WPG doesn't have to sign him AT ALL. They can trade his rights to another team and let them sign him. If a team like Carolina gets him they can sign and not worry about him getting injured because they signed him for the entire year and to play in the playoffs. Not as trade bait.
MTL would probably have to pay the Florida 1st round pick + to get PLD right now but no one is forcing them to do it. The plausible and "right" option here is to simply wait and sign PLD as a free agent. WPG will get a decent value in trade to a contender team who trades for PLD this year and PLD gets signs with MTL next offseason. Everyone's happy.
This!
I also think that while it may not be in Winnipeg, assuming that PLD will only go to ONE team, is hilarious. Yes, I know that his agent said "Yeah, he'd love to play in Montreal!", but *IF* that's the only team he's willing to negotiate with/play on, Montreal should be offering up a league minimum contract when he hits UFA
everyone is happy but winnipeg doesnt get a high draft pick from a contender the pick will be 25-32 overall... and not 17th overall... and that makes a big difference... and many contenders dont have a first in the 2023 draft as well.. So that is why chevy will try to dance with montreal ...... Montreal will trade flo pick dvorak and a prospect and maybe another later pick if they get him with an extension under 8mil...Without the extension montreal justs waits till next year
I'm curious as to why we are hung up on the fact that it *HAS* to be a 2023 pick?
Or there's (3): Winnipeg signs PLD to his $6M QO, knowing that they're not going to re-sign him, so they flip at the deadline for a better version of the Bo Horvat package (1st round pick, good prospect, and decent roster player) instead of taking a 2nd rounder and two lesser prospects, like this deal offers.
the risk is if dubois gets hurt or plays less good then you get either less or no trade at all.. look what happened to monahan this year... Winnipeg can't risk that so he gets traded at the draft 100% certainty... but maybe not to montreal .. there might be a contender who will offer more and hope they can convince him to stay so winnipeg will ask around
I'm curious as to why we are hung up on the fact that it *HAS* to be a 2023 pick?
that is because this is an excellent draft and they only come around every 4 to 6 years where do get a deep one like this....the 4th and 5th in this draft are as good as the 1st overall pick last year... Good players will be going between 10 and 20 this year and maybe even later
that is because this is an excellent draft and they only come around every 4 to 6 years where do get a deep one like this....the 4th and 5th in this draft are as good as the 1st overall pick last year... Good players will be going between 10 and 20 this year and maybe even later
Ah man, draft and prospect over-hype is absolutely real and it's hilarious. Winnipeg isn't getting a top 5 pick in this draft, so there's no point even mentioning it. After that, anything outside the top 10 is a crapshoot. The idea that "Everyone will be amazing!" is a falacy...if you don't develop players properly, then it doesn't work out. Remember 2020? The last "Generational!" draft?
Ah man, draft and prospect over-hype is absolutely real and it's hilarious. Winnipeg isn't getting a top 5 pick in this draft, so there's no point even mentioning it. After that, anything outside the top 10 is a crapshoot. The idea that "Everyone will be amazing!" is a falacy...if you don't develop players properly, then it doesn't work out. Remember 2020? The last "Generational!" draft?
Really well the canadiens got Caufield at 15 and guhle at 16 in back to back seasons and that is a first line winger and a top pairing def so yes picks from 10 to 20 matter.... go back and look at the draft from 10 to 5 years ago and see how many top 6 nhl and top 4 def were drafted between 10 and 20 and you will have done your homework and know what you are talking about
the risk is if dubois gets hurt or plays less good then you get either less or no trade at all.. look what happened to monahan this year... Winnipeg can't risk that so he gets traded at the draft 100% certainty... but maybe not to montreal .. there might be a contender who will offer more and hope they can convince him to stay so winnipeg will ask around
By that same logic, PLD could tear an ACL in Game 1 of the first round and miss all of next year, meaning that Winnipeg would still get nothing for him. Guess they should just sit him for the playoffs and shop him at the draft then, huh?
By that same logic, PLD could tear an ACL in Game 1 of the first round and miss all of next year, meaning that Winnipeg would still get nothing for him. Guess they should just sit him for the playoffs and shop him at the draft then, huh?
sadly any game is a risk of course but winnipeg is committed at this time and must hope for the best.. A good playoff would increase his value and a bad one won't help his value.. He will get traded somewhere at the draft cause chevy also has to figure out sheifele and Helleybuck as well
Really well the canadiens got Caufield at 15 and guhle at 16 in back to back seasons and that is a first line winger and a top pairing def so yes picks from 10 to 20 matter.... go back and look at the draft from 10 to 5 years ago and see how many top 6 nhl and top 4 def were drafted between 10 and 20 and you will have done your homework and know what you are talking about
Daniel buddy...I didn't say that 10-20 "don't matter", I said that it becomes a crap shoot after that. You yourself said these drafts only come every 4 or 6 years, yet Montreal drafted Caufield in 2019, and Guhle in 2020, which further proves my point! If you actually go back and do your homework, instead of suggesting someone else do it for you, you'll note that 20% of players drafted between 10-20 OA from 2010-2018 played less than 100 NHL games. Yep, there's plenty of top 6, or top 4 guys (typically around 20% for forwards, 15% for dmen), then plenty more "Fringy" players. It's actually pretty consistent throughout.
Daniel buddy...I didn't say that 10-20 "don't matter", I said that it becomes a crap shoot after that. You yourself said these drafts only come every 4 or 6 years, yet Montreal drafted Caufield in 2019, and Guhle in 2020, which further proves my point! If you actually go back and do your homework, instead of suggesting someone else do it for you, you'll note that 20% of players drafted between 10-20 OA from 2010-2018 played less than 100 NHL games. Yep, there's plenty of top 6, or top 4 guys (typically around 20% for forwards, 15% for dmen), then plenty more "Fringy" players. It's actually pretty consistent throughout.
Actually buddy i have done the homework ... did you know that only 17 players our\t of 13 drafts going back and ending at 6 years ago have become top 6 forwards and top 4 defenseman or starting goalies
that is 1.3 players each year so like around 10% but between 10 and 20 overall the numbers are just under 50% and that is a huuuuggge difference and that is why Ari traded chyrun to ottawa to get one top 15 pick because they know that player will make a differencee.... whenever mtl pick 25 or later we never got a good player in the last 20 years....It was always Mccarron or Juulson or Schrebet ...peophling etc... never an impact player. So we know if mtl 25 plus is a needle in a haystack while around 15 pick is 50 /50 proposition... Hence maybe we just use the flo pick and wait for free agency for dubois.. and then if he wants too much money we walk away.. So if flo loses to carolina tonight they finish 8th and play bos in the first round and are very likely to lose in round 1 making the pick 17th overalll and in this draft that will be a solid player Hard to see hughes not wanting to use that pick when he know he can go after dubois in a year when we will be more likely to challenge for a playoff spot
I broke my leg so i had lots of time on my hands when i did the research....i was shocked at how bad 20+ picks were and how much better 10-20 picks were...just shocked
Actually buddy i have done the homework ... did you know that only 17 players our\t of 13 drafts going back and ending at 6 years ago have become top 6 forwards and top 4 defenseman or starting goalies
that is 1.3 players each year so like around 10% but between 10 and 20 overall the numbers are just under 50% and that is a huuuuggge difference and that is why Ari traded chyrun to ottawa to get one top 15 pick because they know that player will make a differencee.... whenever mtl pick 25 or later we never got a good player in the last 20 years....It was always Mccarron or Juulson or Schrebet ...peophling etc... never an impact player. So we know if mtl 25 plus is a needle in a haystack while around 15 pick is 50 /50 proposition... Hence maybe we just use the flo pick and wait for free agency for dubois.. and then if he wants too much money we walk away.. So if flo loses to carolina tonight they finish 8th and play bos in the first round and are very likely to lose in round 1 making the pick 17th overalll and in this draft that will be a solid player Hard to see hughes not wanting to use that pick when he know he can go after dubois in a year when we will be more likely to challenge for a playoff spot
I broke my leg so i had lots of time on my hands when i did the research....i was shocked at how bad 20+ picks were and how much better 10-20 picks were...just shocked
I just went to look at 2000 to 2008 and it is about 40% become 500+ games nhlers or starting goalies
Actually buddy i have done the homework ... did you know that only 17 players our\t of 13 drafts going back and ending at 6 years ago have become top 6 forwards and top 4 defenseman or starting goalies
that is 1.3 players each year so like around 10% but between 10 and 20 overall the numbers are just under 50% and that is a huuuuggge difference and that is why Ari traded chyrun to ottawa to get one top 15 pick because they know that player will make a differencee.... whenever mtl pick 25 or later we never got a good player in the last 20 years....It was always Mccarron or Juulson or Schrebet ...peophling etc... never an impact player. So we know if mtl 25 plus is a needle in a haystack while around 15 pick is 50 /50 proposition... Hence maybe we just use the flo pick and wait for free agency for dubois.. and then if he wants too much money we walk away.. So if flo loses to carolina tonight they finish 8th and play bos in the first round and are very likely to lose in round 1 making the pick 17th overalll and in this draft that will be a solid player Hard to see hughes not wanting to use that pick when he know he can go after dubois in a year when we will be more likely to challenge for a playoff spot
I broke my leg so i had lots of time on my hands when i did the research....i was shocked at how bad 20+ picks were and how much better 10-20 picks were...just shocked
If you're laid up because of a broken leg and have some time on your hands, I'd ask you to go back and point out where I said ANYTHING about 20+ picks?
You're literally fighting with yourself here man, and I'm guessing that might be how the whole leg thing happened...
If you're laid up because of a broken leg and have some time on your hands, I'd ask you to go back and point out where I said ANYTHING about 20+ picks?
You're literally fighting with yourself here man, and I'm guessing that might be how the whole leg thing happened...
I am not saying you are saying.... I am simply pointing out some stastisical data to explain why the flo pick and the ott picked are considered valuable whereas the tB pick or Bost pick are not and that they are a low % chance of turning into anything....I never meant to imply that you had said anything about 20+ picks I was just sharing info that is all
I am not saying you are saying.... I am simply pointing out some stastisical data to explain why the flo pick and the ott picked are considered valuable whereas the tB pick or Bost pick are not and that they are a low % chance of turning into anything....I never meant to imply that you had said anything about 20+ picks I was just sharing info that is all
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