I used this article to roughly estimate draft pick values.
https://soundofhockey.com/2022/06/06/examining-the-value-of-nhl-draft-picks/
I have CHI technically giving up more value in favor of higher picks, according to the cited article.
In the past, Jones has proven to be effective when partnered with large frame defensive defenseman, like Gavrikov. I don't think Vlasic will be able to skate quite as many minutes as Jones yet, but I think he will be able to eat enough minutes to remain a top 4 dman. So, there will certainly be some rotation in the pairings, which is not unusual anyway.
I think Killorn would be a perfect fit to put with Bedard. He is big, tough, and skilled. He has done a lot of winning with Tampa and could be a great influence on young players. This will mainly depend on what his intentions are, though. I don't think Tampa will be able to keep him around, but I could certainly see him preferring to go to a contender. Depends on what kind of contract he is asking for, though. If he is more concerned about getting paid, CHI could be the perfect fit. Plus, who wouldn't want to come play with the young Connor Bedard?
I have Phillips and Mitchell together. I know it seems like Mitchell is on his way out, but I would like to run an experiment and see if his and Phillips chemistry from the 21-22 season in Rockford will translate to the NHL level. I don't think Mitchell has been utilized properly or put in a situation to succeed, and I get why those decisions have been made, but if we aren't serious about next season and don't have anyone else knocking on the door, why not waive Zaitsev and give Mitchell a longer look. At the very least, they could try to squeeze more trade value out of him than he currently has.
I think the key with the Killorn signing is playing him with Bedard. Outside of that, I think the top 6 here could be messed with and will depend on what kind of chemistry develops in camp. I think the second line could easily be [Johnson - Guttman - Raddysh] again, with a top line of [Reichel - Bedard - Killorn], but NHL coaches don't typically put two young 1st/2nd-ish year players on a top line together. Or even have Raddysh on the top line too. Or maybe they even shelter Bedard a LITTLE bit in his first season and put him on the second line and/or the wing.
With the way the rebuild has trended, I am finding it harder and harder to see Kurashev being in CHI long term. I get the feeling Davidson will dangle him in trades, or at least be willing to move him if someone asks. Which is why I opted to include him in the trade with DET, adding a little more value in an NHL ready roster player with decent upside to entice Yzerman to make the move.
So, according to this proposed scenario, CHI would have the 1st, 9th, and 14th overall picks in the 2023 draft. We give up some value, but gain better odds at adding cornerstone type players to the prospect pool. This early in the rebuild process, I think that is more important. Down the road we can start to spread picks back out and try to fill some holes and add some role players through the draft.
I would like to reiterate that, no matter what you or I or anyone else thinks of these trades, the values are based on someone else's data model. So, I cannot take credit for them. But, I do feel pretty confident that, even if they aren't QUITE right, they are pretty close to being realistic, value-wise. Whether these teams would actually be willing to make the moves is a different conversation all together.
Did everyone miss the Ted Lasso reference, too? "Mercy Buckets"
Detroit needs higher end talent, so they keep 9oa.
For sure. That was something I was a bit less clear on. Earlier, a DET fan made a similar trade and implied that DET has most of their big pieces in place and needs to add more quantity now to fill holes and such. I am kind of on the fence about that, I think DET has prospects with real potential to be cornerstones, but they haven't really proven it yet.
Read the description. The pick values are based on someone else's data model.
Who cares about any ones data models, We're not dropping 10 spots in an extremely deep draft. Especially for a team that purposely tanks to get Connor Bedard.
Detroit has a million pieces already that fill the "likely to make the show, not likely to be a superstar" category. Getting a star is much more important now, so keeping what may be their last top 10 pick is pretty key
Who cares about any ones data models, We're not dropping 10 spots in an extremely deep draft. Especially for a team that purposely tanks to get Connor Bedard.
I mean... It's a down to the studs rebuild that was supposed to have started two years ago and will continue regardless of Bedard. What do you expect them to do? I'm sure they hoped for Bedard like any team would, but they certainly weren't planning for the insanely small odds at landing him. Also, if you consider the caliber of talent that the Jackets and the Ducks have against their level of compete, and then compare that to the level of talent CHI has against their level of compete, I think it's a little more obvious which teams were phoning it in this season and which were just simply less skilled.
Also, this was influenced by a post from a DET fan earlier. So, if moving that pick is just not an option for DET, I totally get that.
I mean... It's a down to the studs rebuild that was supposed to have started two years ago and will continue regardless of Bedard. What do you expect them to do? I'm sure they hoped for Bedard like any team would, but they certainly weren't planning for the insanely small odds at landing him. Also, if you consider the caliber of talent that the Jackets and the Ducks have against their level of compete, and then compare that to the level of talent CHI has against their level of compete, I think it's a little more obvious which teams were phoning it in this season and which were just simply less skilled.
Also, this was influenced by a post from a DET fan earlier. So, if moving that pick is just not an option for DET, I totally get that.
It goes both ways. Having Zaitsev as your 3C for a game (that you won lol @ Penguins) was crazy and I don't know which way to rule it; lack of depth or managers saying screw it.
I'd be good w/ this as a Hawks fan. Really hope they can land Killorn. That offer would certainly get his attention at least. Agree w/ your assessment of Kurashev but still see him as a Hawk next season. Only trade that doesn't make sense to me is the Gryz move. An undersized pending UFA who Hawks probably can't resign? #1, #9 and #14 would make for a fun night 1 at the deaft!!
I like the Pens offer but they’re pretty crowded on the LD side with Petts, POJ, Smith, and Picks in the pipeline. What the Pens need are good F prospects, as they don’t have any, lol.
That is an overpay as far as value charts especially if you like Kurachev even a little (which I do) for the Detroit pick. I would still do it, but doubt anyone trades out of the top 10 (except maybe Washington if Michkov is gone and they got a great deal....say taking Mantha, giving them TRad and enough picks they can't say no)).
I'll pass on the Grzelcyk deal as I would prefer to force feed kids NHL ice time on LHD and sort through what we have.
Pens trade is okay (not great) if Granlund is not included. No way I take Granlund and pay that. If we are eating 2 years of Granlund, I would need to swap our 2nd for that Boston 1st and the Tampa 2nd for the Ottawa one.
It goes both ways. Having Zaitsev as your 3C for a game (that you won lol Penguins) was crazy and I don't know which way to rule it; lack of depth or managers saying screw it.
True. Injuries and trades played a big part in that, and I think they didn't want to scratch one of their higher paid players. He probably looked better at center than he does on defense, though. haha.
That is an overpay as far as value charts especially if you like Kurachev even a little (which I do) for the Detroit pick. I would still do it, but doubt anyone trades out of the top 10 (except maybe Washington if Michkov is gone and they got a great deal....say taking Mantha, giving them TRad and enough picks they can't say no)).
I'll pass on the Grzelcyk deal as I would prefer to force feed kids NHL ice time on LHD and sort through what we have.
Pens trade is okay (not great) if Granlund is not included. No way I take Granlund and pay that. If we are eating 2 years of Granlund, I would need to swap our 2nd for that Boston 1st and the Tampa 2nd for the Ottawa one.
Yeah. Gryz is kind of a gamble. I was thinking MAYBE they could flip him for more at the deadline with retention, or at least break even, seeing that he is a pretty seasoned veteran on an expiring deal. But I am not attached to him in the least bit. I could take him or leave him.
Detroit says nah, unless something better is co.ing 9 oa osmt moving.
Yeah. I kinda figured the same thing. But, after seeing that detroit proposal from either last night or early this morning and that it seemed to be fairly well received, I thought maybe they were satisfied with their higher end players and wanted to round out their pool a bit. This offer is actually significantly better than what that DET fan proposed too. But, I totally get it, if Yzerman thinks they need more top of the lineup caliber players.
Yeah. I kinda figured the same thing. But, after seeing that detroit proposal from either last night or early this morning and that it seemed to be fairly well received, I thought maybe they were satisfied with their higher end players and wanted to round out their pool a bit. This offer is actually significantly better than what that DET fan proposed too. But, I totally get it, if Yzerman thinks they need more top of the lineup caliber players.
Detroit definitely needs quality over quantity at this point. It's more likely we trade pieces for that one big asset than trade for parts like this one.
Detroit definitely needs quality over quantity at this point. It's more likely we trade pieces for that one big asset than trade for parts like this one.
They do have a lot of interesting talent on the way with pretty high ceilings. I don't necessarily see anyone in DET's prospect pool YET that absolutely screams "CORNERSTONE FRANCHISE PLAYER". But, I just thought maybe I was missing something, and that pick actually could be bought. In all honesty, I highly doubt any top 10 picks will be moved this year, anyway. I mostly just wanted to use that chart for some proposals because I thought it was interesting.
I like these moves a lot, although I would like to keep Kurashev and resign Domi. That Reichel-Domi-Kurashev line only got three games together last season, but they looked pretty good at generating offense. Although if the Hawks can get a second pick in the top ten and get their hands on Ryan Leonard that’s a slam dunk.
Gonna build this roster soon be on the lookout Garak curious to see your opinion
Not too shabby. I don't see Kubalik or Hayden coming back to CHI, though. It might be interesting to see Kubalik on Bedards wing though. Someone like him could add a whole new playmaking element to Bedard's game that we haven't really seen. Gives him a great option to drop the puck back if he gets in trouble driving the net or gets ganged up on. But I think I'd prefer someone that could take attention AWAY from Bedard. Don't want the kid to get hammered by the other team every game in his first season in the NHL.
Also, I'm on the fence about Reese Johnson, but I also don't mind giving him more time. I think there should be a roster spot for him. But more importantly, I think Entwistle is gonna be here for the long haul. Sure they are "just bottom 6 guys" right now. But, I think Enty could be an important role player for the Hawks, and I think he still has a glimmer of hope of being a legit threat. And they are both still young.
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