As any fan on here knows, there's a ton of prospective trades and signings that pop up constantly surrounding each team. Some are wild, some are okay, and sometimes (rarely) we end up with something that makes sense for all parties involved. This is an attempt to take some ideas around Columbus and both consolidate them into one ACGM and get a near-consensus agreement from all parties on them so we can settle value once and for all.
Will it work? Almost definitely no. Will trying restore some of my sanity? Also almost definitely no. Let's give it a shot.
I'll revise and post updated attempts as I can and as the comments progress. It's an attempt at good-faith, fair-value, which is probably my first mistake already.
First and foremost, the near-consensus CBJ items of business:
1. Boone Jenner isn't available, so don't ask. I've seen it so many times, but it boils down to his value internally being way higher than any other team should be willing to pay, plus the fact that every team seems to want a player like him, which would up the market value. The offer would have to be ridiculous, it would get shot down by every other fanbase here. Let's just save our breath and move on.
2. Texier isn't available, so don't ask. The team supported him all year, he's finally back, I'm not going to ignore the human element and move him.
3. Marner isn't getting traded to Columbus. The interest was there when he was an RFA, but that was years ago and before both Laine and Gaudreau. Now there's no need, and no interest.
4. The 3rd OA pick isn't available. Columbus HAS to get a potential franchise center, or use it to trade for one, that fits the timeline (under 25, under team control, and a true 1C/star player). A move like that almost never happens, and the list of centers that fit that bill is shorter than the list of $10M+ players in the SC Final this year. I'm just going to assume CBJ make the pick, and select the best center prospect available, which is most likely Leo Carlsson. He's probably not in the NHL next year, so he'll end up in the non-roster.
Columbus gets a capable transition LD that can either get flipped at the deadline, or signed to a reasonable extension. Svozil or Mateychuk are likely pushing for an NHL spot next season, so the former seems most likely.
Columbus does need a transition center, as Jenner isn't suited for 1C, I'm not sold on Laine working there long-term, Sillinger likely starts in the AHL, Carlsson is in Sweden, and Johnson is locked into LW.
PHI
2023 4th round pick (WPG)
2024 2nd round pick (CBJ)
Additional Details:
Any single pick higher than a 2nd is too high for Columbus. This year's second is 34th OA in a stacked draft, so Columbus tries to send next year's instead. Adding WPG's 4th to even up value?
Murray starts on LTIR and ends up in the AHL, then is possibly flipped at the deadline for a late-round draft pick. There's no chance he ends up in the NHL with Merzlikins and Tarasov already there, barring injury to one of them.
TOR
2023 3rd round pick (CBJ)
2023 4th round pick (CBJ)
Additional Details:
Toronto pays a hefty price to move Murray with no retention. Columbus adds picks for a more even value, but is hesitant to lose two out of this year's draft. Toronto adds this year's 5th to appease those fears.
Columbus gets more reasonably-priced short-term LD help, and upgrades a pick. They clear out the RD logjam with (IMO) the most redundant player likely to fetch the highest price on the market.
It's a starting point, but I want to know what you think. The glaring issues I still see are:
1. Bean isn't on the NHL roster
2. Danforth as 3C doesn't sit right with me, Jenner is better suited for that role which means we'd still need a 2C.
3. The LAK 1st is burning a hole in my pocket.
Maybe there's a package involving Bean + LAK 1st for a legit 2C? What are the options out there?
I think Murray to Columbus just isn't going to happen. Jarmo has not taken on a cap dump in his entire tenure as GM and the $6M he is owed in real cash is likely too large a pill for McConnell to swallow for some draft capital.
Leafs decline. Sooner to buy out Murray than give away a first for a 3rd
That's 100% valid, it looks like his buyout is $687,500 this upcoming season and $2,000,000 next, which might hurt. Is there a trade you'd consider to avoid that? Columbus could take it or leave it.
I think Murray to Columbus just isn't going to happen. Jarmo has not taken on a cap dump in his entire tenure as GM and the $6M he is owed in real cash is likely too large a pill for McConnell to swallow for some draft capital.
That's the most likely trade to get cut entirely from Attempt #2. I've seen it a bunch so I wanted to use it as a feeler, but my guess is Columbus would be indifferent at best, even for a 1st.
While the trade works in principle. Boston really needs to move Grizz without taking cap back. Picks or prospects preferred.
Yeah, I feel like Jack can be sent somewhere else and the Boston trade is more likely going to be Bemstrom + a 3rd.
Also, Bean is not getting buried. He is 100% getting traded or he's on the main squad next year. He isn't bad enough to get sat in the AHL, he'd 100% get picked up on waivers
If Columbus trades for Gryz, Kulak wouldn't fill a direct need...maybe Peeke for a 2nd straight-up?
No, because Columbus would need to fill that role of 3rd pair LD with someone, Boqvist and Blankenburg can’t be 100% trusted to be in the line up for all 82 games, Peeke or in this case Kulak can be.
Honestly with Columbus’s injury history on the backend have int a lot of depth on the blueline will be a need for us so we aren’t having to trust to play Berni as the top pair LHD next season.
Yeah, I feel like Jack can be sent somewhere else and the Boston trade is more likely going to be Bemstrom + a 3rd.
Also, Bean is not getting buried. He is 100% getting traded or he's on the main squad next year. He isn't bad enough to get sat in the AHL, he'd 100% get picked up on waivers
Jack probably stays to start the year and gets moved half-retained at the deadline, but I liked this proposal too. Bemstrom + CGY's 3rd would probably work for CBJ.
And yes, Bean isn't getting buried, that's my glaring issue #1 that would get fixed in the 2nd iteration. I'd either move him as part of a package for a 2C or nix the Kulak deal and just keep him on the 3rd pair.
No, because Columbus would need to fill that role of 3rd pair LD with someone, Boqvist and Blankenburg can’t be 100% trusted to be in the line up for all 82 games, Peeke or in this case Kulak can be.
Honestly with Columbus’s injury history on the backend have int a lot of depth on the blueline will be a need for us so we aren’t having to trust to play Berni as the top pair LHD next season.
In this instance, we still have Bean buried in the AHL...I'm not sold on him being a reliable 3LD, but it's an option. Otherwise, maybe a UFA? Or a package of Bean + LAK 1st + ??? for someone like Hanifin, which I've seen a lot? I agree with you on injury history at D, that's a major concern.
In this instance, we still have Bean buried in the AHL...I'm not sold on him being a reliable 3LD, but it's an option. Otherwise, maybe a UFA? Or a package of Bean + LAK 1st + ??? for someone like Hanifin, which I've seen a lot? I agree with you on injury history at D, that's a major concern.
Bean isn’t good, he likely gets one more shot at the NHL and is gone. He isn’t really in the window of playing much next season (also agin injury history). I wouldn’t be seeking the farm to fix the 3rd pair LD option unless it’s a cheap trade or someone if giving a guy on a 1 year deal away to make cap room.
Fixing the 2nd pair with Kulak or Gry seems like the best option imo, and letting the kids develop, this isn’t the summer to make major changes to the team after all the injuries last year.
That's 100% valid, it looks like his buyout is $687,500 this upcoming season and $2,000,000 next, which might hurt. Is there a trade you'd consider to avoid that? Columbus could take it or leave it.
Probably a lower pick or a lower end prospect? I’m not certain, I just know in this draft especially that first round pick is extra valuable
I just don't get why Kevin Hayes should be worth more than Oliver Bjorkstrand at the same cap hit.
There were salary considerations at play but Philly has no leverage in moving him because they've been loud about him not fitting the Torts system anymore. He's been a C/W and doesn't have fantastic faceoffs or defense (according to HockeyVis Philly was better with him off the ice). Oliver Bjorkstrand had absolutely fantastic defense despite not having great play connectivity which limited his offensive ceiling (which was still as high as Hayes').
I don't see why, additionally, Hayes is so desired with Roslovic so panned. They aren't terribly dissimilar players and Roslovic is younger and cheaper (AND right handed). He's got less of a brain but fantastic feet and PK experience. The CBJ PK was better with him on than it was without (according to HockeyViz). Kevin Hayes didn't PK at all and played against easier competition. Additionally, Roslovic 1/2 retained can be a high value asset to a contender with limited cap space (sort of like how Brandon Hagel was overvalued because his cap hit is so low) and a competent coach.
As much as I don't mind Kulak and Grzelcyk, I don't think we do both. They do sort of work (Gryz doesn't PK, Kulak is bad at 5 on 5 but was good at PK) but I think Bean gets another chance. There is some encouraging underlying metrics in his play before injury. It wasn't overall good, don't get me wrong, but he flashes some active skills that fit where the CBJ D is going. His value won't get lower than it is now. We might as well give him a 3rd pair chance while he's under contract.
The Hayes deal seems fine. Idk that anyone really knows what his return would be right now. He had a great season but everyone knows the contract is a little tough. Even if he puts up good numbers again.
All in all, I could see this being the return but the retention is what chaps me. That kind of retention is valuable. I’d argue more valuable that what is there but I guess we’ll see.
Edit: it also counts as one of our 3 players with retention, and I don’t think that’s enough of a return given that PHi will soon be using all 3 of those retention spots
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