these guys desperately need to tear it all the way down

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: Tintin

Team: 2023-24 San Jose Sharks

Initial Creation Date: Jun. 18, 2023

Published: Jun. 20, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

I view the Sharks short-term future as among the bleakest in the league.
A previously super unimpressive prospect pool, that only started taking a healthy shape in getting Mukhammadulin and Okhotiuk in the Meier deal will keep this team among the worst in the league over the next 2-3 years even if they keep Karlsson and Couture around only to become the next iteration of the Vancouver Canucks once their contracts are all up.
4 bad-to-horrible contracts in Hertl, Karlsson, Couture and Vlasic and the dead cap Grier has already committed to this team completely dooms any chance of the Sharks making the playoffs for the next two seasons.

Given where the Sharks are now and where I think the current team will be in two years the Sharks should try and sell everything on the roster not nailed down to the floor retaining significant amounts on Karlsson and Couture.

If it were up to me, I'd sell everything (including Meier) on the Sharks roster not nailed down to the floor retaining 50% on Karlsson and Couture, tank like there's no tomorrow until the 25/26 season and then be setup for a decade of perennial contention.

At TDL 2024 the Sharks should do everything in their power to move Barabanov, Labanc and Lorentz out for additional futures.
There is a fair amount of depth in the Sharks prospect pool so in the last two months of the season there'll be ample time to try some of the guys listed in the taxi squad out.
There is a very decent chance that among the guys on the taxi squad are a handful of players of real use to a future contending Sharks team. The same can be said for a few guys I put on the active roster (Okhotiuk, Thrun, Peterson, Zetterlund etc).

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST	YEARS	CAP HIT
Lund, Cameron	3	$950,000
Hävelid, Mattias	3	$950,000
Young, Alex	3	$950,000

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Annunen, Justus	1	$874,125
Gregor, Noah	1	$997,500
Gadjovich, Jonah	1	$787,500
Kaut, Martin	1	$874,125
Mäkiniemi, Eetu	1	$840,000
Svechnikov, Evgeny	1	$787,500
Peterson, Jacob	1	$787,500
Zetterlund, Fabian	1	$787,500

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Raanta, Antti		3	$3,000,000

CREATED	YEARS	CAP HIT
Michkov, Matvei	3	$950,000
Gulyayev, Mikhail	3	$950,000
Mukhanov, Timur	3	$950,000
But, Daniil	3	$950,000

Trades

SJS

Bourgault, Xavier
Ceci, Cody
Yamamoto, Kailer
2023 2nd round pick (EDM)
2024 1st round pick (EDM)
2025 1st round pick (EDM)

Additional Details:

2 1sts , a B level prospect in Bourgault and auxiliary draft capital accumulation should be more than fair for EK65 at 40% retention for 4 years as well as taking on 6.3m in unwanted cap (Yams + Ceci). That's what I think anyway.

EDM

Karlsson, Erik ($4,500,000 retained)
2023 3rd round pick (CAR)
2025 4th round pick (WPG)

SJS

Annunen, Justus [RFA Rights]
Foudy, Jean-Luc
2023 1st round pick (COL)
2024 4th round pick (COL)

COL

Couture, Logan ($3,000,000 retained)

SJS

2024 6th round pick (COL)

Additional Details:

any late rd pick would do

COL

Simek, Radim

Additional Details:

To any team in need of defensive depth

SJS

2025 5th round pick (COL)

Additional Details:

any late rd pick would do

COL

Gadjovich, Jonah

Additional Details:

To any team in need of cheap forward depth

SJS

2023 5th round pick (COL)

Additional Details:

any late rd pick would do

COL

MacDonald, Jacob

Additional Details:

To any team in need of defensive depth

SJS

Mantha, Anthony
2023 2nd round pick (WSH)
2025 2nd round pick (WSH)

WSH

Barabanov, Alexander

SJS

Bailey, Josh
2023 2nd round pick (NYI)
2024 2nd round pick (NYI)

NYI

Zetterlund, Fabian
2024 4th round pick (VGK)

Buyouts

Martin Jones: $2,916,667
Rūdolfs Balcers: $308,334

Retained Salary Transactions

Brent Burns: $2,720,000 (34%)
Erik Karlsson: $4,500,000 (45%)
Logan Couture: $3,000,000 (37.5%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$83,500,000	$69,867,460	$25,000	$1,545,000	$13,632,540

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Eklund, William $863,333$863,333 ($850,000$850K) LW RFA - 3	Hertl, Tomas $6,750,000$6,750,000 C NMC UFA - 7	Labanc, Kevin $4,725,000$4,725,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Mantha, Anthony $2,850,000$2,850,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Bordeleau, Thomas $916,667$916,667 C, LW RFA - 1	Yamamoto, Kailer $1,500,000$1,500,000 RW RFA - 1
Peterson, Jacob $787,500$787,500 LW, C RFA - 1	Sturm, Nico $2,000,000$2,000,000 C UFA - 2	Bailey, Josh $5,000,000$5,000,000 RW, LW, C UFA - 1
Gregor, Noah $997,500$997,500 LW, RW RFA - 1	Lorentz, Steven $1,050,000$1,050,000 C, LW, RW UFA - 1	Kunin, Luke $2,750,000$2,750,000 RW, C RFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Vlasic, Marc-Édouard $7,000,000$7,000,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 3	Benning, Matthew $1,250,000$1,250,000 RD UFA - 3	Raanta, Antti $3,000,000$3,000,000 G UFA - 1
Ferraro, Mario $3,250,000$3,250,000 LD UFA - 3	Ceci, Cody $3,250,000$3,250,000 RD UFA - 2	Kähkönen, Kaapo $2,750,000$2,750,000 G UFA - 1
Okhotiuk, Nikita $789,167$789,167 ($82,500$82K) LD RFA - 1	Mukhamadullin, Shakir $894,167$894,167 ($400,000$400K) LD RFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Svechnikov, Evgeny $787,500$787,500 LW, RW UFA		But, Daniil $950,000$950,000
Kaut, Martin $874,125$874,125 RW RFA		Mukhanov, Timur $950,000$950,000
Thrun, Henry $912,500$912,500 ($212,500$212K) LD RFA - 1		Michkov, Matvei $950,000$950,000
		Gulyayev, Mikhail $950,000$950,000

Taxi Squad
Bourgault, Xavier $925,000$925,000 ($0$0$0$0) ($250,000$250K) RW RFA - 2
Gushchin, Daniil $828,333$828,333 ($0$0$0$0) ($82,500$82K) LW RFA - 2
Robins, Tristen $797,500$797,500 ($0$0$0$0) ($57,500$58K) C RFA - 2
Foudy, Jean-Luc $847,500$847,500 ($0$0$0$0) ($57,500$58K) C RFA - 2
Lund, Cameron $950,000$950,000 ($0$0$0$0) C RFA
Young, Alex $950,000$950,000 ($0$0$0$0) C RFA
Bystedt, Filip $950,000$950,000 ($0$0$0$0) C RFA - 3
Wiesblatt, Ozzy $835,833$835,833 ($0$0$0$0) RW RFA - 2
Coe, Brandon $850,833$850,833 ($0$0$0$0) ($57,500$58K) RW RFA - 1
Lindblom, Oskar $2,500,000$2,500,000 ($1,350,000$1M$1,350,000$1M) LW UFA - 1
Knyzhov, Nikolai $1,250,000$1,250,000 ($100,000$100K$100,000$100K) LD/RD UFA - 2
Pulli, Valtteri $950,000$950,000 ($0$0$0$0) LD RFA - 2
Hävelid, Mattias $950,000$950,000 ($0$0$0$0) RD RFA
Laroque, Gannon $836,667$836,667 ($0$0$0$0) ($57,500$58K) RD RFA - 3
Kniazev, Artemi $789,167$789,167 ($0$0$0$0) ($82,500$82K) LD RFA - 1
Mäkiniemi, Eetu $840,000$840,000 ($0$0$0$0) G UFA - 1
Annunen, Justus $874,125$874,125 ($0$0$0$0) G RFA - 1
Chrona, Magnus $867,500$867,500 ($0$0$0$0) ($57,500$58K) G RFA - 2
Romanov, Georgi $910,000$910,000 ($0$0$0$0) ($80,000$80K) G RFA - 2

Jun. 20, 2023 at 5:20 a.m.

Artman91

Joined: Mar. 2021

Posts: 894

Likes: 288

I don’t see the Oilers making a run at Karlsson. Edmonton already lacks draft picks and yet they have to give a second plus two first and a prospect. Karlsson isn’t guaranteeing them a cup and they sacrifice a good chunk of their future.

CD282 liked this.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 5:45 a.m.

Tintin

Thread Starter

do not Devil my ass

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 4,900

Likes: 4,264

Quoting: Artman91

For the Oilers that future should mean nothing compared to giving their current McDavid / Draisaitl-led core the best possible chance of a cup in the next two years.
I see no chance for this Oilers team to win a cup after 2026, if they can burn futures like those picks and Bourgault in exchange for maximizing chances of winning in this 3 year window they should 100% do that.
If there's a more optimal way to achieve that than trading for EK65 I'm all ears, but this Oilers team is on the clock and they really need to hurry up to not waste having Drai and McDavid at a combined 21m.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 5:48 a.m.

TJTwolf

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 9,615

Likes: 4,589

Avs decline. Firstly they're not likely trading Annunen as he's being developed as their goalie of the future. Secondly even with retention that contract won't age well. Thirdly that 1st round pick has too much value to the Avs and likely only gets moved for a 2C that can be a part of their plans at a decent level for longer.

M96N29 liked this.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 6:31 a.m.

Tintin

Thread Starter

do not Devil my ass

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 4,900

Likes: 4,264

Quoting: TJTwolf

Couture is still fairly good, would be a way better 2C with the Avs than guys like Hayes or Kuznetsov.
I hear you on the pick and Annunen stuff but Couture at 5m should be worth it for a team like the Avs given the lack of viable options out there.
Screenshot-2023-04-03-at-1.05.52-PM-1536x964.png

Screenshot-2023-04-03-at-1.05.52-PM-1536x964.png

Quoting: Blacktown

Yes lets just ruin Bordeleau’s development by making him replace the captain on the second line thats super smart. You clearly know **** all about the Sharks organizational chart. One of those “BLOW IT UP” guys. “TRADE EVERYWON” we need more GPALZ.

Go back to bed before your mom gets mad at you for staying up to late kiddo and lay off the crackpipe. ****in dim witted daft kunt.

You seem like a well-balanced and reasonable individual.
Wishing you a wonderful Tuesday wherever you reside.

justaBoss liked this.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 6:41 a.m.

GMBL

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 8,581

Likes: 3,322

If I'm the Sharks I'm signing Kallgren and running a Kahkonen-Kallgren tandem, that could end up really bad but they probably should be trying to tank.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 7:26 a.m.

Tintin

Thread Starter

do not Devil my ass

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 4,900

Likes: 4,264

Quoting: GMBL

If I'm the Sharks I'm signing Kallgren and running a Kahkonen-Kallgren tandem, that could end up really bad but they probably should be trying to tank.

They should 100% be tanking but I think there's merit to the idea of not having the worst possible goaltending imaginable when doing so.
It'd be good for the guys to have some confidence in Raanta being able to bail them out once or twice for each game he dresses in.

GMBL liked this.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 7:35 a.m.

GMBL

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 8,581

Likes: 3,322

Quoting: Tintin

That's fair but I'm guessing that both Kallgren and Kahkonen will have some good games while others are bad. Kallgren especially, in his time with Toronto he had either really great games or not-so-good games, so he might not have great games with a weaker defense but guessing he still has some good ones. Perhaps, they should run with 3-goalies just in case they are doing too bad or too good, or from the start try passing Kallgren through waivers.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 7:41 a.m.

Tintin

Thread Starter

do not Devil my ass

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 4,900

Likes: 4,264

Quoting: GMBL

I actually like Källgren a fair bit and wouldn't be surprised if he could prove to hold down a regular backup job somewhere in the league.
The Sharks do have two goalies with interesting upside in Mäkiniemi and Chrona (and I traded for Annunen here also), not sure if there's a place for Källgren in this AGM anyway.
I wonder if Källgren doesn't end up going back to the Leafs as their #3.

GMBL liked this.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 7:56 a.m.

exo2769

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 15,688

Likes: 9,841

I'm not a Sharks fan, but do agree with your outlook on this organization. They do need to tear it down and get whatever they can for their players. Use all 3 retention slots and retain 50%. Get younger and develop from within.

Tintin liked this.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 9:14 a.m.

#10

NMAvsFan

Representing the 505

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 4,503

Likes: 3,687

Quoting: Tintin

This is a tough one for me. Couture has definitely been productive (although not $8M productive) but nearly every player's mid-30's show a steady decline in production so, while they may get a year or two of acceptable play, the last few years could see them back in the same place of looking for a top-six player; for every Joe Pavelski that manages to defy time, there are dozens of other players that just wither away. According to that card you posted, he's already slightly overpaid and he isn't strong defensively, but, in a 2nd line role at $5M maybe he excels and is worth it if he can be steady and reliable.

Like I said, his age is the biggest barrier; he'll be 38(!) at the end of that deal (seriously, what was Doug Wilson thinking?) so he doesn't exactly fit the Avs window all that well. Really, the best fit for the Avs would be Hertl but he inexplicably signed up for a lengthy rebuild (what was HE thinking?) so, unless he can be talked into waiving for the Avs, this is probably a polite, "No, thank you" from the Avs although it is tempting.

Tintin and M96N29 liked this.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 9:34 a.m.

#11

swissmontana

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 899

Likes: 1,081

Quoting: Tintin

I agree he's a better option than Kuzy or Hayes, but I think the concern for the Avs is how quick the decline can happen for a player at his age and how few options they would have to move him if that happened. RoR at $5mil remains a safer option, just because of the age difference.

I wouldn't be mad if it happened, though. Couture was still great last year and if he can give the Avs 2 good years and a cup, no one cares about what happened after

Tintin liked this.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 10:09 a.m.

#12

glarson17

Joined: Jun. 2019

Posts: 8,181

Likes: 3,661

You complain about the dead cap…then commit to paying $30 MILLION to have two guys play elsewhere…

Jun. 20, 2023 at 10:16 a.m.

#13

Tintin

Thread Starter

do not Devil my ass

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 4,900

Likes: 4,264

Quoting: glarson17

You complain about the dead cap…then commit to paying $30 MILLION to have two guys play elsewhere…

Well, there's a significant difference between wasting EK65's and Couture's value on a Sharks roster with a ton of dead cap already as it will keep the Sharks from not being competitive in that timeframe while also foregoing the assets gained from trading those two guys away.
Much better to lean into an already terrible situation and create more dead cap if it can be turned into additional futures, as I suggest the Sharks should do in this AGM.
I thought this was a fairly straight-forward point to grasp but I guess not...

Jun. 20, 2023 at 10:18 a.m.

#14

SJS2212

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 422

Likes: 226

$9M a year in dead cap through 2026-27 and being devoid of all retention slots for future moves the next 2 seasons is likely a non-starter. Having to retain on Karlsson is fine. Retaining $3M on Couture is unnecessary with the cap increasing next year. Whoever would trade for him simply just needs to make it work this year with sending a short-term bad contract and then they're on their own for 2024-25 when the cap starts to bounce back.

glarson17 liked this.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 10:22 a.m.

#15

glarson17

Joined: Jun. 2019

Posts: 8,181

Likes: 3,661

Quoting: Tintin

Nobody is having all their retention slots filled for years on end. Nobody is retaining all that money plus what they already have on the books. Yes they should trade them but take a smaller contract back in the process so they at least get a player

Jun. 20, 2023 at 10:29 a.m.

#16

Tintin

Thread Starter

do not Devil my ass

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 4,900

Likes: 4,264

Quoting: SJS2212

There a are a few reasonable points here.
Regarding the retention slots, yeah it's not ideal but if retaining on Karlsson and Couture are the only ways to make them tradeable then I should think it is more important to use them here instead of doing what exactly? Siphoning out a 3rd rd pick in some TDL trade via 3rd party retention? Squeezing more value out of a potential Ferraro trade in the following season? Use the retention slots now, I think it's more optimal to do that given the circumstances. Burns's retention slot frees up in 2 years anyway.

GSVA seem to suggest that Couture doesn't hold value at 8m, but at 5m he holds a fair bit of value.
I think it would be very difficult to move Couture's contract for a worthwhile return without retaining, especially given his very restrictive NTC.

I settled on trading Couture to Colorado cus they have a clear need for a good 2C for the next 2-3 years, and Couture being more likely to waive (or not have the Avs on his no-trade list) for Colorado as they'll likely be contending with him in the lineup.
But I couldn't identify a bad contract on the Avs to take back, they seem to run a rather tight ship.
If you have a suggestion for some other trade partner that might make more sense and have a bad contract to send back then I'm all ears.

Quoting: glarson17

See above, think it speaks to your point.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 11:31 a.m.

#17

matthias893

Joined: Apr. 2023

Posts: 349

Likes: 135

Not sure if its been mentioned regarding retention here, but you have two deals that both involve retention and 2023 draft picks. The Sharks currently only have 1 retention slot available and to my knowledge won't get a 2nd until after Timo Meier's current contract expires on July 1st.

Tintin liked this.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 11:36 a.m.

#18

Tintin

Thread Starter

do not Devil my ass

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 4,900

Likes: 4,264

Quoting: matthias893

Damn that's an amazing point, great find.
I suppose one of the deals would have to go down no sooner than July 1st meaning the picks would have to transfer to the 2024 draft of that trade.

matthias893 liked this.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 12:53 p.m.

#19

jakdonaghy

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 358

Likes: 89

Lifelong Sharks fan here. Obviously doing all of these trades is not possible, but hopefully some are. Getting as many draft picks and young prospects essential. Next 2-3 years will be rough for Sharks and also ideal for rebuild.

Similarly to how Sharks traded Burns as a courtesy to give him a chance to win it only seems right to do the same for Couture AND he should have fair value if a good portion of his contract is retained. He is a playoff stud, consistent, great PK. Retain 50% of his contract to max out return and send him to a contender!!!!!

Tintin liked this.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 1:17 p.m.

#20

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,091

Likes: 7,772

Edited Jun. 20, 2023 at 5:09 p.m.

Quoting: Artman91

Plus they don't have the cap space. This deal has them taking on more than $1M in extra cap and they now need to replace Yamamoto on the roster. Not a chance they can do that with an $83.5M limit.

Besides, Karlsson just isn't worth $7M to them when they already have Bouchard on the roster.

Artman91 liked this.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 6:56 p.m.

#21

TJTwolf

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 9,615

Likes: 4,589

Quoting: Tintin

You seem like a well-balanced and reasonable individual.
Wishing you a wonderful Tuesday wherever you reside.

Wouldn't deny he's still a good player now. Long term he may well fall off a cliff however. Might require different pieces I think for it to work for the Avs and then probably doesn't work for the Sharks.

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