Depends, at full AAV probably a 2nd and a prospect

At 50% retained probably a lottery protected 1st

I strongly doubt this.

Call it a 3rd no retention. 2nd with retention. At the high end.

I don't see a 1st being in play, unless Campbell is coming back the other way. (then that would be a whole other ball game in terms of what the package would be)

Probably like a 2nd and a low end prospect or 14th forward type player

Edmonton is desperate, that means they pay a premium. Add that Monty has been consistent last year and this year (most analytic models out him in top 15 goalies) AND add the fact that he is the cheapest AAV option on the market and a 1st should definitely be on the table.

A late 1st rounder is my hope, whether that's a later pick with a better prospect or straight up conditional pick I don't know but I think that's what MTL wants for him

I just don't see it for a pending UFA goalie. Now if Montreal is willing to eat Campbells contract in return, they could get a serious pay day from this.

The flip side is that if all it took was a 3rd they likely make that deal weeks ago, so has to be more.

MTL isn't taking Campbell on without a ridiculous pay day like you said and I think this management wants to leave space for a big splash this FA

Korpi got a 3rd with better numbers last year

Rental 1B goalies don't return that.

Extremely optimistic, but most just unrealistic and your claim of "top 15 in league"??? What in the world?!?! Let's call him a decent 2nd tandem guy. Not the 1st choice in a tandem sytem if you can help it, but can make it work as the 2nd.

The biggest reason EDM probably has interest in Monty is because despite EDM being desperate...Monty still shouldn't cost a lot in trade value.

well he was part of a bigger trade, you cant really say what he was worth.

I literally said if you look at analytics he is in the top 15. And it's because Edmonton is desperate AND they need a low AAV both of which means Monty is a premium for them since he comes with the lowest possible AAV

Gavrikov 1st
Korpi 3rd
quick dump I could weigh anywhere from nothing to a cost of 2nd/3rd

Korpi was part of a larger trade to a team that was winning, had cap space and was just trying to solidly the position. None of those are the case for Edmonton.

They need a guy with a low AAV to come in and fill a giant hole in their roster, if they think that's Monty then they'll have to pay a premium for it.

im just saying your stating an opinion as a fact.

korpis was traded with gavrikov for a first , a 3rd an quick. he was not traded for a 3rd.

your opinion is valid.thought, but its not a fact.

EDM need a goalie on a cheap contract to try and save their season, if they thinks hes the guy (who else fits the criteria) itll cost them.. MTL has all the leverage here

The Kings needed to solidify their goaltending as Quick and Peterson had been horrific and copley had been meh.
Both the kings and Edmonton are buyers
Both the blue jackets and montreal are not contenders
Korpi and Monty had AAVs of 1.3 and 1 respectively
Both expiring rentals with virtually identical production.

Yes you're right, Korpi was a throw in and his value probably was actually less than a 3rd, since Gavrikov cost a 1st and they took on a cap dump in quick.

"The flip side is that if all it took was a 3rd they likely make that deal weeks ago,"

I think you're underestimating how truly dumb some GMs are, Kenny Holland being one of them.

We can use other comps if you like

DeSmith got a 3rd at 1.8 and MTL took on a cap dump
Hill got a 4th at 2.1
Rittich got a 3rd at 1.3 mill

Montreal is a rebuilding team. They can't afford to lose their best young local goalie without prospects ready to step up(Primeau isnt it).

They want to resign him for a multiyears contract not trade him.

EDM wouln't pay what it would take to convince MTL.

All goaltenders acquired with zero desperation involved. Not exactly apples to apples.

Its not that Monty is worth a 1st. He isn't. Its that EDM has run out of options when it comes to acquiring one and they are now publicly desperate. They can't afford a 2M or even 1.5M goalie right now. They need to acquire someone as good as possible under such a bare bones minimum threshold of cap. They can easily target better more expensive goalies but it will require much higher end assets along with either adding Campbell which no team wants or adding a good player that their loss will only hurt their team in another area. So either do something small that won't cost too too much or something massive that will cost everything.

..... or do nothing but doing nothing while 2 of the best players in the league (one of them being in the "ever" category) rot is also just as bad as wasting a 1st on immediate help IMHO. This isn't just a Suzuki and Caufield that they're trying to appease. They need to do something but desperation forces them to have to overpay because the other GM's know this.

There are very little comparables you can use for this situation.

To add to this, because there are so few comparable scenarios, "fair market value" becomes almost irrelevant in these situations.
Should Montembeault only be worth a 3rd rd pick? Probably. Do you think if MTL was accepting fair market price for Montembeault that EDM would have paid it by now? Absolutely!

Not to mention Montembeault might not even be on the market. If Kent Hughes is able to sign him to a reasonable extension. He just won't be available.

The Kings goaltending was horrific.
The leafs had just lost Freddy andersen to an injury going into a playoff run
Lehner was gone for VGK and the only other goalies they had was LT who had just 20 career games, and career backup brossoit who was also not ready to go to start the season after needing surgery. They needed a goalie desperately unless the plan was for a contender to roll out a 26 year old with 20 games of experience and Michael Hutchison
Demko was battling injuries coming off a bad year and the backups were HORRIFIC. They also needed to clear cap space badly to be compliant.

All of these teams were in ****'s creek needing a goalie. They are comparables

Vancouver was over the cap, had a goalie coming off injury and the backups sporting 0.870s. That's desperate
Toronto's starting goalie had just gotten hurt going into a playoff run. That's desperate
VGK had a 26 year old with 20 career games, Michael Hutchison, and Brossoit who wasn't ready to play after offseason surgery. That's desperate

Those examples you made are literally not even comparable to EDM"s current situation.

Timing of the trades, cap constraints, etc etc make those not comparable. I literally don't know what to tell you if you can't see that.

better comps for sure! now the context is different though