I don’t know how the NHL draft, and rights duration issues will play out. But my guess is that any U18 (pre-draft) player will be able to maintain their amateur status…it’s the older guys who decide on NCAA late (after juniors) that will be more of a challenge.

Bear and OB are in love. Armstrong can't say enough good things about McBain and Crouse. I doubt McBain gets moved. Flexibility is too valuable. Talented enough to play between Keller and Schmaltz, played between Crouse and Maccelli after the last deadline. Can line up at wing, and plays the prototypical Armstrong player. He wants 10 more of him. OB I could see getting moved, and I wouldn't be shocked if he came back.

In your opinion, does this hurt or help the development of Canadian hockey? Same with the USA players.

That's honestly brutal. Use that draft capital to select NHL ready players who will make an impact, kind of like Montreal is doing. Drafting players simply because you don't need to sign them for a while is a terrible strategy.

I'd be shocked if they gave up real value for a rental.

Your larger point stands, though, and the goal should be to find guys 21-27 years old who are getting squeezed out by cap or depth. Guys they think can be part of a core, and have term or RFA control. Those are the guys they'll over pay on. Everyone laughed when they dropped a second on McBain.

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/569565

They are going to target Bill's guys and be willing to overpay to get them. Wouldn't be surprised to see a relatively big name or two, either.

Does that squeeze out Hayton and make him available?

Short version, don't know yet until we see what is decided and how various leagues react.

1. I think it could hurt junior A leagues the most. Their biggest selling point for a lot of players is that they can preserve amateur status so that players can attend NCAA schools after. If CHL can now offer the same, it will be interesting how they adapt. USports teams are likely to be losers in this too...as they currently allow CHLers.

2. How CHL owners will react to this change will probably answer your question more than anything.

3. It will have financial impact. CHL teams provide funding for education for CHL players, but only about one-quarter of the money that is promised is ever paid out (for a lot of reasons...not all on the teams). Are they going to want to pay for tuition in USA? I doubt it. At least they will not want to be on the hook for more than they provide now (which is based on a formula depending on where you live, how long you play, etc).

4. CHL teams likely will not want to lose their stars after a year or two. If they respond with mandating that players stay 3-4 years or until age 20, they may end up losing some players.

5. If the the NHL ends up solving the 2-year vs 4-year rights duration issue by moving the draft age back to 19 years old (with, say, 3 year window for everyone), that could help CHL teams. Right now, most NCAA players are asked to play junior until 19 yrs old anyway.

6. The CHL will likely have to make some changes to its entry draft and player selection process. There is a long list of guys who have threatened to flee CHL for NCAA if they are not selected by their preferred teams. London with Marner, Tkachuk, Dvorak...all three had committed to NCAA, then decommitted when London gained their rights. Even as far back as Eric Lindros, who committed to Michigan to avoid playing for one team. Some CHL teams will likely see the longer window for players to join NCAA as leverage against them.

7. I think a lot of people in scouting world see major junior as best development for younger players (16-18) and NCAA as best development for older prospects (19-22). So one one sense, it could provide the best of both worlds for a lot of players.

8. For people that want Canada to establish a program similar to US National Team Development Program, this probably opens the door to that because it will wrestle some of the power away from CHL owners.

9. As for US player development, I don't think it will have a huge impact. For the top guys, the NTDP will still operate as it always has...and in some ways, as will USHL. (Personally, I think it would be fun to see USHL as fourth entry into Memorial Cup, as some as talked about in past...but that wouldn't have huge impact overall).

10. A lot of the "who wins" depends on your views currently. My guess is that leads to more convergence between the two systems...so I suppose, if you think USA system is better, it would help CAN side. If you think CAN side is better, it probably helps USA side. If you see a strong CHL as essential to Canadian player development, it probably helps in some regard (certainly if you see guys like Celebrini, Power, etc staying in CHL as helpful for the league)....but also may lose some players in their final years.

Hayton plays the Steve Rucchin role between Schmaltz and Keller. He's doing all the dirty work for that line. I think they are very happy with his play, despite his drop in points in this 16 game sample. After they moved him up in the lineup last year, he had 34 points in 47 games to end the season. I wouldn't mess with it.

Having said that, McBain and Kerfoot have been serviceable there, you've got Ruzicka you might want to give a look to in that spot. Geekie may be knocking on the door next year. He wasn't an Armstrong pick. Maybe he's bait for defenseman. I would leave it be unless someone knocks your socks off. If they're hunting really big game, maybe he's a piece you dangle.

Yeah that's what I was wondering, as he still has high perceived value around the league as everyone is searching for centers; and even teams like the Flames want a "24-year old center" in exchange for a guy like Hanifin or Tanev.

Tanev is extremely underappreciated, but he's not a guy the Yotes should pay to add. I'm not sold on trading for *edit*Hanifin either, but assuming both sides worked out a contract, he fits the age group and fills a giant need. I would have added him early in the year, but I'd probably hold off now that they've slid a bit.

Hamilton? Or Hanifin?

Mikhail Sergachev is being taken off ice on a stretcher

It looked really bad. Wouldn't be surprised if Tampa has an extra 8.5M at the deadline this year

Yeah, looked bad. Left knee, I think. Didn’t put an aircast on, so maybe not femur.

First game back, no? He seemed crushed. In tears.

He just got back from a different injury too smh so unlucky

Autocorrect strikes again!

Yeah, just came back from missing 17 games and immediately gets hurt, that really sucks for him

Is this the part of the story where Chychrun gets to be a Lightning?

That seems like a fit and a necessary gap fill. Sergachev and Chychrun are kinda similar, and Chychruns contract is digestible. If you’re giving 47 draft picks for Tanner you can afford 3 more for Jacob.

Why do I feel like prices at this TD are going to be crazy. It feels like there are very few top end players and a lot of buyers.

We're going to see 1st's going for depth players. Especially considering scouts are saying this draft isn't very deep.

I think we'll see a lot of 2nd/3rd and prospects move but not really any 1sts, apart from someone like Tanev, Hanifin, Tarasenko, there's no one really worth a 1st

Rumors were previously that they were in on RHD targets as Perbix/Raddysh/Cernak were not quite living up to their hopes. Guys that are clear upgrades would be Tanev, Walker, maybe Savard (again) but guys like Dumba, DeAngelo, Lyubushkin, Jensen, Barrie, E-Johnson, Hamonic, Boqvist (if ever healthy), or Kovacevic aren't clear upgrades but offer different playing styles.

I wonder about a guy like Connor Murphy but I don't think they have the assets or a 50% retained ME Vlasic as someone that might be really cheap (in acquisition costs).

Adding a LHD to their needs might price them out of TDL unless they can get one relatively cheap like Broberg or Brannstrom who both want a new situation

My Avs wishlist for this TDL:

Best overall 2C candidate:
C-Morgan Frost, PHI

Centers that fit the "roll waves of speed" mold:
C-Peyton Krebs, BUF
C/W-Jack Roslovic, CBJ
C/W-Scott Laughton, PHI

Centers that fit the "Kadri" mold of 2C for us:
C/W-Adam Henrique, ANA (25-50% retention)
C-Casey Mittelstadt, BUF

Best overall 1B Goalie Candidates:
G-Charlie Lindgren, WSH
G-Kevin Lankinen, NSH

Veteran backup goalies/playoff pressure:
G-Marc-Andre Fleury, MIN (50% retained)
G-James Reimer, DET

Goalies who probably bounce back in a new structure:
G-Anton Forsberg, OTT (50% retained)
G-Chris Driedger, SEA (50% retained)
G-Antti Raanta, CAR (50% retained)

Assets willing/needing to give up:
C-Ryan Johansen, $4mil x 2 needed to move out to take any salary coming in.
2024 1st round draft pick
LD-Sean Behrens, NCAA/Denver; 2021 #61 overall pick
W-Oscar Olausson, AHL; 2021 #28 overall pick
C/W-Ben Meyers, AHL; NCAA free agent signing
G-Justus Annunen, AHL/NHL; 2018 #64 overall pick

Personally, I would consider either Bo Byram or Sam Malinski as part of a trade that had bigger upgrades to the roster with term and/or additional cap relief.
My thoughts on Byram are that his value is really high as a high end prospect and his current contract is a great value; but I don't see how we can afford his next one in 2025-26 with other UFA/RFA's at that time. He has never been able to leapfrog Sam Girard as the tried and true #2LHD and he was not very successful at switching to RHD when Manson was out. I like him much better than Manson long term but we need some sandpaper/grit/size on the backend top 4 and at some point we have too many puck movers/active D; along with two more of those types in our current pipeline (Behrens/Gulyayev) and none with grit/size. If the offer was too good to refuse, I would do it as our window right now is a prime opportunity.

Honestly, if Ryan Johansen would just shoot more pucks on the net and control play in the O-zone better we would not be having this discussion and could just focus on our backup goalie issue. Everything else he does is what we need.

Considering there are decent rumours that Laughton could potentially get a 1st, I tend to think prices will be high this year.

Laughton under no circumstances should be even getting a 2nd