Edited Feb. 9 at 5:24 p.m.
Quoting: NHLfan10506
If he signs long-term, the over / under on Faber AAV should be _____?
(RFA after 2024-25)
I don’t have the right reference to nail it, but educated guess:
If the term ends at age 26 whereby he would have arb rights + 1 year to ufa I’d guess like 3yr 4.8 mil - 5.2 mil aav. But that’s if the performance continues and the team evaluation has that in the future (which is seems like it does).
If you’d want that aav lower you could skew the pay back, so for example, perhaps he’s earning 7 million in the final year, pushing the qualifier high, then perhaps the aav hit is 4.5-4.8. You could also reduce short term aav with a 2 year term, (3-3.2?), but then you’re paying that piper sooner if performance continue, losing a year in total, plus shifting some leverage to the player in those 2 years prior to ufa.
Perhaps elc to 2 year bridge, to 8 year term is the proper path? As opposed to elc to 3 year term to 8 year term? Idk. You’d really want to see contracts for the entire team on a board then add different permutations of this and see what benefits and challenges are created. Like if 3 big decisions exist in an offseason you may not want to add a 4th if you can.
Werenski had a similar role, exposure at a young age i feel. McAvoy too.
McAvoy is the 2 years then 8 example. See how that third year becomes much bigger if you sit on it, and you have 1 year less control at the end.
This type of skater is extremely easy to value for the teams: these scales get used a lot. My numbers aren’t accurate, theirs will be extremely accurate.
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