I think EDM will have other priorities at the deadline. Value isn't crazy, though.

I think Blackwell probably gets some attention, possibly moved for a 3rd or lower prospect. I think Mrazek gets calls also, and if the offer/market is high enough, the hawks swap goalies with someone. But I agree with everything else.

What is Calgary getting for Lindholm in this scenario?

Not bad value wise but wrong place to trade him to

Yeah that's fair. I figured he spent some time there so a reunion could make sense for comfort's sake. Whoever actually ends up with him isnt too important to the overall outlook of this ACGM.

Yeah I've liked blackwell so I wouldnt mind keeping him if we dont get more than a 4th for him. Makes some exciting moves sometimes. And Mrazek has been good, so if we get a good enough offer Im all ears. But with what Davidson has been saying recently makes me think theyre trying to re-sign him, and especially if Soderblom continues to not perform well, then bringing him back to let Commesso/Gajan develop more seems like a better idea to me. But yeah a goalie swap could always make sense too which solves that issue anyway.

I'd imagine getting Lindholm double retained would be worth a pretty penny, but I havent been paying close enough attention to the Flames to be properly evaluating him. I'm more so in it here just to piggy back off of whatever deadline deals need a middle man to retain, so that's slightly out of the scope of this post

Avs would love Lindholm but what can they really give up? I think a 75% retained Lindholm would cost you an A- prospect, a 1st and a decent/good roster player.

Girard is of course an interesting name that easily is expendable for the Avs. But what prospect do they really have? Or would 2 1’st work for Flames?

Otherwise: Lysell, Boston 2025 1st and DeBrusk could perhaps be something if Bruins go after Lindholm?

Lindholm would be so good for the Bruins!

Calum Ritchie and Sean Behrens are two prospects that would come to mind. Not sure how eager they would be to deal Ritchie and a 1st but they have the assets to get it done if they are set on it. I could see Bruins being a good fit as well

The price on 1.25 mill in retention is a 5th not a 3rd.

3rd round picks don't really do a whole lot for CHI, at this point. But, if KD is planning on being quiet at the TDL and doesn't have plans to use those retention slots for any other trades, we might as well.

According to what?

When going back and comparing to other 3rd party retention deals, I've found that the quality of the pick received is more so a function of actual money owed rather than cap hit. However, the draft picks dont really matter for the sake of this ACGM as I am just outlining what the deadline will probably look like and the players / teams are not specifically hard set, as said in the description, so I would imagine the Hawks will just take whatever they can get to take advantage of some lingering cap space

Past trades. It’s a pretty set in stone market.

No. It isn't. No offense, but that is very much wrong. The Rangers just paid a 3rd to AZ last year to pay $250k of Kanes salary and a $2.625M cap hit. This may be a lower cap hit but it is $956k, which is almost quadruple the ACTUAL salary. That is significantly more than a 5th.

What you are referencing is retention on contracts that were front loaded, leaving almost no salary left to be paid and only a cap hit. There is a difference.

The cap space is more significant.

In terms of cash paid with accrual the cash paid for Lindholm would be about 400k. (1.25 mill over approx 1/3 of the year).

Domi had a base salary of 6 mill.

for 1.325 mill in retention it cost a 6th and a swap of a former 5th rounder, and a 25 year old KHLer

OP is just showing the return for double retention. Calgary is getting their return from Colorado in this scenario. They won't get a 3rd though, probably a 4th or 5th

Ah. yeah messed up in my calculation, $956k is 2/3. That still costs more than Kane's salary, though. The trade you are referencing was two years ago and doesn't determine the current market. Any assumption that the market for retention is "set in stone" at that rate is inaccurate. If historical trade data tells us anything, it's that a trade like this should be a 3rd or a 4th, depending on the pick and the teams involved. But the market is also different this year than last year and the years before that. These things are not static. I can almost guarantee no team in the NHL will do that this year. Maybe next year after the cap starts going up again, but GM's are going to leverage the flat cap as much as they can while they still can.

Also, I like you, for the most part, and we've had this conversation before, but you are still wrong. lol. A 5th is just being hopeful. If you were to argue a 4th, I might be slightly more receptive. But a 5th is not it.

2021-2022 was peak flat cap (and low revenues) tho, which would mean cap space and money would cost the MOST in that year

I just don’t see a comp for 1.25 mill in 3rd party retention cap being a 3rd or a 4th.

But I may be missing something. We’ll have to see this deadline

I think what you are overlooking is actual salary. Salary and cap hit are two completely different things and factor into these sorts of trades differently. In these sort of third party retention trades involving rentals, salary is much more important than AAV. Being earlier doesn't make it the peak. There are more teams up against the cap right now than there was at the 2022 deadline.

The Daily Faceoff's study of historical trade data roughly comes out to these pick for salary ratios:
1st Round Pick: $800,000+
2nd Round Pick: $650,000
3rd Round Pick: $500,000
4th Round Pick: $350,000
5th Round Pick: $185,000
6th Round Pick $125,000
7th Round Pick: $100,000<

$370K puts it in the 4th round pick territory. But, historic data does not account for the current climate and situations of all teams involved. It's just an average. If AZ commanded that much to retain on Kane last year, you can bet that teams who are able to take on cap and salary will be using that as a recent comp to base their price on.

But, yeah, like you said, we'll see what happens. If CHI isn't using their retention slots for anything else and it's a pending UFA, whatever... Scratch some backs, do some favors, and build some relationships, maybe it'll be beneficial down the road.

I don't think NSH does any of this. NSH also has a large amount of cap space available and with Barrie's contract ending this year, NSH has no reason to be a middle man when they can just retain on a deal itself directly with whomever wants him. If they need a middle man for cap reasons, then sure, but I don't see why NSH couldn't just retain more and get a higher return themselves.

Calgary would be interested in Callum Ritchie or Foudy. We're really lacking d or center prospects. I'd have to wonder how the Avs would resign him given their cap situation next year. That is, unless he is a pure rental.

Lindholm and Pasta would be deadly. I also think he would be a good fit between Barzal and Horvat, but the islanders have too many long term deals at high AAVs to make it work.