My opinion seems to be different from the consensus here.

My initial gut reaction when the trade was announced was Dubas hit a home run, and giving up a top-6 forward with term and half of your prospect pool for a rental you’re probably not going to re-sign is uncharacteristically irresponsible for Waddell. He’s always seemed to find a way to contend now while also building for the future – probably a smart strategy for a team in a non-traditional small market that probably wouldn’t have the patience for another long rebuild.

After sleeping on it, I still think Pittsburgh got a great return for a rental – more on why later – but I like it for Carolina too. They have a lot of players with contracts expiring this summer and next. (Only Aho, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi, Staal and Kochetkov are signed beyond that.) They should be able to keep some of them, but they’ll need to make some tough decisions on the others. This is probably the year for Waddell to break from his strategy and go all in. That said, even after this trade they still have all their draft picks this year (pending resolution of the conditions) and their prospect pool is smaller but doesn’t look totally depleted.

Was Guentzel the right guy for Carolina to go after? Obviously we won’t know until he plays for them, but I say yes. They’ve been wanting a goal scorer, and he was the best available, probably the only one likely to have a real impact on this already deep team. I was thinking they would go after Buchnevich because he has another year left on his contract, but for that reason he would have cost them more, and I think Guentzel is a better fit for what they need. The only negative is unless he really loves it in Carolina, I think he’ll be strictly a rental. If he wants a big 7-year contract, I don’t think Carolina will give that to somebody his age, though at least they’ll have a chance to see how well he fits in before they decide what they are willing to offer, instead of waiting to make a pitch for him as a UFA.

Now let’s look at it from Pittsburgh’s perspective. First, let’s remember that Jake Guentzel is a rental. Renting is attractive only because it costs less than buying (at least in the short term). When you trade a pending UFA, you never get back equal value, and to expect that, you would be unrealistic. People are talking like they expected Pittsburgh to get a guy who’s just as good as Jake Guentzel. That doesn't happen when you’re trading a rental.

A lot of people seem upset that they didn’t get a guaranteed first-round pick. This is a very narrow view based on us being conditioned to top tier rentals being traded for a package that almost always includes 1st-round pick, but what is that pick worth? Carolina’s 1st-round pick is #25 based on today’s standings. I think it’s too soon to judge anybody drafted in 2020 or later, so let’s look at the 5 years before that. The #25 picks those years were Jack Roslovic, Riley Tufte, Ryan Poehling, Dominik Bokk and Connor McMichael, so while some teams do find stars late in the first round (Jake Oettinger and Tage Thompson were #26 picks), you’re just as likely to get a guy who never establishes himself as an NHL player. Seems that there’s a good chance that at least one of these guys will become an NHL player, and if it’s Koivunen or Ponomarev, they’ll be there years before a 2024 1st-round pick. That’s worth a lot to Pittsburgh because they don’t want to wait until Crosby and Malkin are retired before the see any benefits from this trade. And by the way, there’s probably a 15-20% chance they’ll get that 1st-round pick that all of you think is so important anyway, in addition to these prospects.

Another thing that makes this a good trade for Pittsburgh is Michael Bunting. Don’t get me wrong – he’s no Jake Guentzel – but he’s proven he can play on the top line with elite players, so he could immediately slide into Guentzel’s spot. I would argue that even if none of the prospects and draft picks work out, it’s still a good trade for Pittsburgh because they got a replacement for Guentzel for two more years at a reasonable cap hit, and they can use the cap space they save by replacing Guentzel with Bunting to add in another area this summer.

Finally, I don’t know if there’s any chance of Guentzel going back to Pittsburgh, but if they have any designs on that, they kept that possibility open by trading him to a team that seems unlikely to sign him.

Just a few points
1. I don't think Don would've traded those assets for Guentzel if he didn't think that Geuntzle wouldn't sign an extension in Carolina.
2. "They should be able to keep some of them, but they’ll need to make some tough decisions on the others." - I agree but taking Bunting off the books allows us more flexibility and possibly being able to bring back almost all of the core.
3. I think this is a massive win for Carolina because of a couple of things: They got their game-breaker, and they didn't have to give up any of the top-shelf prospects (Morrow, Nikishin, Nadeau, or Blake) to do it

So many overreactions to this deal, in my opinion. Especially after seeing the market, Dubas did well for himself. No top tier prospects got moved anywhere... unless you're being charitable and include Erstrom to san Jose. (Maybe Erstrom will be a great NHL player, but I'm unconvinced, as of this post.)

And the elephant in the room is, even as good as Guentzel is, the Penguins just can't keep hanging on to all these players. Guentzel's going to be 30 soon. The last thing the Penguins need is another 30+ year old player on a long, expensive contract. This was a painful but necessary move. And if one or two of Ponomarev, Koivunen, Lucius, and the pick(s) become reliable middle six players, I actually think that's fine. The player(s) replacing Guentzel don't have to fill his exact role. If they fill another role, and allow the flexibility to get a younger 1st line winger in another trade or free agency, you still accomplished your goal.

Pretty much boils down to who he signs with...if he signs with Carolina then Carolina won since they paid a rental price for a non rental...if he doesn't sign with Carolina then Pittsburgh won since they got more than a rental should cost...

Need to revisit this in 2 to 4 years to see how the three prospects shook out. I doubt any of them are going to be as good as Guentzel was for the Penguins but even if they turn out as middle-of-the-roster contributors then it's a okay return.

A lot of people are disappointed that Pittsburgh couldn't shake a guaranteed 1st rounder out of Carolina. There was a lot of hesitancy to part with them (firsts) this trade deadline, especially for wingers. The players that did get moved for firsts had caveats attached to them, like Lindholm, Monahan and Henrique were all centres in a weak centre rental market, and the latter had heavy retention. Looks like ya boy Dubas preferred getting the kids back than guaranteeing a top 32 selection.

Something Dubas was effective at during his Toronto tenure was being able to spot decent players in the 2nd and later rounds - Durzi, Robertson, Knies and Minten were all 2nd round picks. Settling on a mid-round 2nd might've influenced this decision but he's not operating with the same scouting network he had in Toronto, so we'll have to wait and see if anyone Pittsburgh picks up will pan out effectively.

It's a disappointing return for Guentzel on the outset but there's a number of what-ifs here that it might be looked back upon as an alright trade. Again, need to wait a couple years to see if the guys they got back pan out.

Just wanted to stop by and note that Bunting has more 5v5 goals, points, takeaways, hits than Guentzel, and the penguins have their best win% of the season since the trade.

It’s almost as if Jake Guentzel is not a 21 min a game winger and is instead a fairly mid 17 minute a game winger when considering the contract you’ll have to give him.

It's almost as if the first two aren't even true, and that Guentzel has played fewer games than Bunting since the trade. It's also almost as if you don't know why a small sample size is not representative of the whole.

Guentzel has the same amount of 5v5 points and 1 less goal at 5v5 than Bunting in 3 less games since the trade. Guentzel also has 20 total points in 13 games while Bunting has 12 points in 16 games

Guentzel is an elite winger even when he’s not playing with Crosby

🥱

I acknowledge at the time of writing I was wrong and had misclicked.

Prior to today’s game, Guentzel had less 5v5 goals but more points. I did not accurately represent buntings points, but it was an accident.

Now my original claim is correct, thanks to a 5v5 net front game winning 3rd period goal.

This trend will continue. Guentzel was misused by Pittsburgh. He’s nowhere near the skill set or talent to skate 21 min a game as a winger. Removing him forced the team to skate appropriate, balanced lines. It has rejuvenated all lines, Crosby included, but obviously malkin too.

Even if none of the prospects pan out and Carolina loses Guentzel to free agency (which would be better than giving him a big 7 or 8 year contract at his age), this already looks like a great trade for both teams. Bunting has fit in well, he’s signed for two more years, and the Penguins have been much improved since the trade, propelling themselves from what looked like a lost season into a position where they now seem more likely to make the playoffs than not. Meanwhile, Carolina was looking for an elite goal scorer. That’s not what Guentzel has been, but he’s looked like an elite set-up man who has brought Jarvis and Aho to another level, so they may have actually got two elite goal scorers out of the deal.

It was a very logical trade from the start if you take out the emotion and w/o the impulse buying mindset. Dubas did what he needed to do as I said. People always overreact in the moment.
Pens got their needed cupboard of prospects and a pick. Carolina gets their difference maker and finally paid for a UFA. Not every trade needs to be a homerun for a side but both teams clearly did well.