Sennies Retool Redditor Disapproved Edition

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Created by: Barnacle_Ed

Team: 2024-25 Ottawa Senators

Initial Creation Date: Mar. 18, 2024

Published: Mar. 18, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

IMHO the Sens core group is generally fine and doesn't need a major shakeup. What *does* need to change is the overall culture of the group, the appallingly thin RD side, and bringing in some more dynamic well-rounded players to flesh out the roster further.

In that vein it's time to part ways with Chychrun (who struggles defensively) and JBD (who no longer fits the timeline for this rebuild). The trades to send both out are likely optimistic given how the latest deadline was a buyer's market and I'll be the first person to admit it, but the overarching mindset of "move them out for some useful assets the Sens can use now" is probably sound.

It's also clear the Sens' current goaltending tandem isn't working. I highly doubt moving Korpi is realistic, so the better option is to dump Forsberg (who just hasn't been the same since his double MCL tear) and keep the much younger Sogaard, then hope the RD overhaul and a new head coach will help return the GSAA to vaguely respectable numbers. Mandolese either walks or gets traded off for an AHL centreman (which I honestly can't be bothered to do here) then Kazakhstani tour-de-force Vladimir Nikitin gets promoted from the BCHL.

There's a number of excellent UFA D-men available this off-season including Tanev, Roy, Dillon, and "****ing rights" DeMelo. I think it's highly likely LAK keep Roy around and the Jets keep DeMelo, so I've opted for Tanev and the incredibly underrated Hakanpaa from the Stars. Rounding out the D corps is Branny who's taken some big steps forward this season and now has the burly Hakanpaa to help out physically on the bottom pair. Harmonic is an obvious buyout target (seriously WTF was Dorion thinking with that NMC?), and Lassi Thompson walks without anyone wanting to trade for him since he passed through waivers twice recently.

Signing Toffoli is likely the least-realistic move here since I doubt he'd be willing to play in Ottawa even with an M-NTC on his contract. Fact of the matter is the Sens will need a top 6 forward to replace Norris (who is likely to spend the entire year on IR) even with Pinto emerging as a 2C option and Greig looking like a legitimate core piece.

Crookshank gets promoted due to his outstanding AHL campaign, then we bring in Noesen for a solid veteran presence in the bottom-6. There's also an argument to be made for trading Kastelic for a more reliable 4C but there's no UFA that really jumps out to me and the Sens frankly don't have the assets to part with at this time - even with the trades listed here.

The spare cap wiggle room can be used to make any of the signings more realistic and bridge Greig in the off-season.

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Brännström, Erik	3	$2,750,000
Kelly, Parker	2	$1,250,000
Pinto, Shane	3	$3,750,000
Søgaard, Mads	2	$1,100,000
Matinpalo, Nikolas	2	$775,000
Reinhardt, Cole	2	$775,000
Sokolov, Egor	2	$775,000
Crookshank, Angus	2	$1,100,000
Guénette, Maxence	1	$775,000

UFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Smejkal, Jiri	1	$775,000
Hakanpää, Jani	2	$2,100,000
Noesen, Stefan	2	$2,200,000
Toffoli, Tyler	3	$6,250,000
Tanev, Christopher	3	$4,250,000

CREATED		YEARS	CAP HIT
Nikitin, Vladimir		3	$800,000

Trades

OTT

2024 7th round pick (SJS)

SJS

Forsberg, Anton
2024 4th round pick (TBL)

OTT

Coronato, Matthew
2024 1st round pick (VAN)
2024 4th round pick (CGY)

CGY

Chychrun, Jakob

OTT

2024 3rd round pick (CHI)

CHI

Bernard-Docker, Jacob

Buyouts

Colin White: -$625,000
Travis Hamonic: $366,667

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
21	$87,700,000	$83,445,714	$850,000	$0	$4,254,286

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Tkachuk, Brady $8,205,714$8,205,714 LW UFA - 4	Stützle, Tim $8,350,000$8,350,000 C UFA - 7	Toffoli, Tyler $6,250,000$6,250,000 RW, LW UFA
Batherson, Drake $4,975,000$4,975,000 RW, LW UFA - 3	Pinto, Shane $3,750,000$3,750,000 C RFA	Giroux, Claude $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, C NMC UFA - 1
Joseph, Mathieu $2,950,000$2,950,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Greig, Ridly $863,333$863,333 C, LW RFA - 1	Noesen, Stefan $2,200,000$2,200,000 LW, RW UFA
Crookshank, Angus $1,100,000$1,100,000 LW RFA	Kastelic, Mark $835,000$835,000 C, RW RFA - 1	Kelly, Parker $1,250,000$1,250,000 LW RFA

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Chabot, Thomas $8,000,000$8,000,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 4	Zub, Artem $4,600,000$4,600,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 3	Korpisalo, Joonas $4,000,000$4,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 4
Sanderson, Jake $8,050,000$8,050,000 LD UFA - 8	Tanev, Christopher $4,250,000$4,250,000 RD UFA	Søgaard, Mads $1,100,000$1,100,000 G RFA
Brännström, Erik $2,750,000$2,750,000 LD/RD, LW RFA	Hakanpää, Jani $2,100,000$2,100,000 RD UFA

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
MacEwen, Zack $775,000$775,000 RW, C UFA - 2		Norris, Joshua $7,950,000$7,950,000 C UFA - 6

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Tkachuk, B.		Stützle, T.		Toffoli, T.
	Batherson, D.		Chabot, T.

Power Play 2
Noesen, S.		Pinto, S.		Giroux, C.
	Crookshank, A.		Sanderson, J.

Penalty Kill 1
	Joseph, M.	Pinto, S.
	Sanderson, J.	Tanev, C.

Penalty Kill 2
	Kelly, P.	Giroux, C.
	Brännström, E.	Zub, A.

Mar. 18 at 1:35 p.m.

samobitts65

Dic Nowd

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 56

Likes: 7

Nooooo... take our expensive old RHD Jensen for good young players pleaseeeee. These D signings make too much sense!!!

Barnacle_Ed liked this.

Mar. 18 at 1:36 p.m.

Leafsfan98

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 9,759

Likes: 2,955

Now, what happens for game 1 when Norris returns?

Also, Coronato 😂

palhal liked this.

Mar. 18 at 1:41 p.m.

SlickWilly

Joined: Nov. 2017

Posts: 3,231

Likes: 2,168

JBD is intriguing and we could use some RD prospects but probably not for an early 3rd

Hawksguy81 and Garak liked this.

Mar. 18 at 1:43 p.m.

Barnacle_Ed

Thread Starter

An Old Fart Sens Fan

Joined: Apr. 2022

Posts: 29

Likes: 13

Quoting: Leafsfan98

Now, what happens for game 1 when Norris returns?

Norris is having shoulder surgery for the 3rd time in his young career. Best-case scenario is he's on LTIR for the entire season, worst is a Robidas Island retirement.

Quoting: SlickWilly

JBD is intriguing and we could use some RD prospects but probably not for an early 3rd

You're probably right; although he's taken some good steps forward since being waived early in the year it's a pretty optimistic trade and I'll be the first to admit it

SlickWilly liked this.

Mar. 18 at 1:52 p.m.

Leafsfan98

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 9,759

Likes: 2,955

Quoting: Barnacle_Ed

Norris is having shoulder surgery for the 3rd time in his young career. Best-case scenario is he's on LTIR for the entire season, worst is a Robidas Island retirement.

This a a projection for next year though... When Norris can return

Mar. 18 at 1:57 p.m.

Chabotrrorr

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 1,673

Likes: 411

No need for Hakanpaa or the 3rd round pick. Keep Bernard-Docker. This allows the Sens to keep Chychrun and still sign the UFAs. The only problem: We haven't solved the goalie problem. I do like the addition of another solid forward (Toffoli), but I still think we need a solid goalie.

Mar. 18 at 2:00 p.m.

OwnGoal

Joined: Oct. 2021

Posts: 218

Likes: 118

Quoting: Leafsfan98

This a a projection for next year though... When Norris can return

As he said Toffoli is who he would like to sign but is unlikely so the toffoli money plus leftover cap would cover Norris and a 4m ish player. 🤷

Mar. 18 at 2:04 p.m.

Barnacle_Ed

Thread Starter

An Old Fart Sens Fan

Joined: Apr. 2022

Posts: 29

Likes: 13

Quoting: Chabotrrorr

JBD honestly hasn't impressed me this year; he's been wildly inconsistent, struggles to make safe passes, and routinely gets outmuscled in puck battles. I think he can grow into a solid shutdown guy in another 2-3 years but the Sens frankly don't have that kind of time to spare rn.

I fully agree that the goalie situation is a total ****ing mess, no mistake about it...Dorion really screwed the pooch between the Murray and Korpi signings. My hope here, as stated above, is that a new coaching team will help achieve some positive goalie voodoo for once and avoid the Sens making a desperation trade or buyout (which I feel like is the exact kind of shortsighted thinking that's caused this rebuild to stall out).

Quoting: Leafsfan98

This a a projection for next year though... When Norris can return

I don't follow. This is for the 2024-25 season and I assume Norris will be rehabbing his shoulder all through it, as stated above. If he does return for 2025-26, the cap rises and Giroux's contract falls off so there's plenty of space to bring him in while also bridging Greig.

Chabotrrorr liked this.

Mar. 18 at 2:09 p.m.

emoprettyboy

Joined: Feb. 2022

Posts: 1,840

Likes: 868

I really think this team needs to seriously address the goaltending. if Staios enters next season with a Korpisalo/Sogaard combo, I'll assume he's just already given up. the rest of this I generally like enough. I'd try to get a young, 2nd-line ready winger for Chychrun and skip the Toffoli signing, then use that cap space on a goalie

Mar. 18 at 2:35 p.m.

#10

Barnacle_Ed

Thread Starter

An Old Fart Sens Fan

Joined: Apr. 2022

Posts: 29

Likes: 13

Quoting: emoprettyboy

Goalies are voodoo, UFA tendies doubly so. But I can't disagree that this tandem is shaky at best - bringing in someone like Wedgewood or Stolarz or even Brossoit then keeping Soggy in the AHL makes a lot of sense on paper.

Mar. 18 at 2:43 p.m.

#11

Beargold

Joined: Mar. 2022

Posts: 416

Likes: 165

I'd love to see Ostapchuk play that 4C role over Kastelic tbh. Maybe we could buy out Korpi and use Kastelic to get bargaining rights to Desmith out of VAN? Sign him to run a tandem with Sogaard/Forsberg with the threat of AHL demotion for the latter two as incentive to pull it together. We can survive the one more year of Forsberg so I'd rather just keep him and the 4th and with our goalie injury history, the depth would be nice.

As an aside, if we waive Forsberg and someone claims him then problem solved anyway.

Mar. 18 at 2:47 p.m.

#12

emoprettyboy

Joined: Feb. 2022

Posts: 1,840

Likes: 868

Quoting: Barnacle_Ed

goalies most certainly are a cruel and unpredictable mistress, but I just don't see a world where you can go into next season with Korpisalo playing a significant role for this team and have any faith whatsoever

Barnacle_Ed liked this.

Mar. 18 at 2:57 p.m.

#13

Barnacle_Ed

Thread Starter

An Old Fart Sens Fan

Joined: Apr. 2022

Posts: 29

Likes: 13

Quoting: Beargold

The only thing I don't like about waiving Forsberg is if no one claims him we have another potential AHL goalie logjam. So hopefully we'd see Soggy and Merialainen get starts instead.

I personally think DeSmith is overrated - his numbers in Vancouver haven't been particularly compelling. Trading Kasty to acquire bargaining rights for someone then promoting Ostapchuk seems like a pretty reasonable idea however, since I don't have a lot of faith in Kasty at this point.

Mar. 18 at 2:59 p.m.

#14

athrin

Joined: May 2017

Posts: 5,806

Likes: 1,512

OTT declines CGY trade

Mar. 18 at 3:04 p.m.

#15

Hawksguy81

Joined: Nov. 2022

Posts: 8,566

Likes: 10,416

Hawks decline. JBD may have taken some small steps forward in his development, but he's nowhere close to worth a 3rd. Hawks might take a flyer on him for a 7th at best. Hawks need a veteran guy for their 3rd pair, not an inconsistent youngster. Hawks have Crevier in house already if they want to go that route.

Garak liked this.

Mar. 18 at 3:06 p.m.

#16

Hawksguy81

Joined: Nov. 2022

Posts: 8,566

Likes: 10,416

Quoting: SlickWilly

JBD is intriguing and we could use some RD prospects but probably not for an early 3rd

JBD will be 24 in June. Not exactly a prospect anymore.

Garak liked this.

Mar. 18 at 3:31 p.m.

#17

SlickWilly

Joined: Nov. 2017

Posts: 3,231

Likes: 2,168

Quoting: Hawksguy81

JBD will be 24 in June. Not exactly a prospect anymore.

forsling didnt figure it out until he was 25 and on his 4th org. defensemen are weird sometimes. i believe in the tools but not for a 3rd

Barnacle_Ed, Garak and LivingAnew liked this.

Mar. 18 at 4:25 p.m.

#18

Garak

Joined: Jun. 2019

Posts: 10,814

Likes: 10,570

Quoting: SlickWilly

forsling didnt figure it out until he was 25 and on his 4th org. defensemen are weird sometimes. i believe in the tools but not for a 3rd

Agreed.

Mar. 18 at 5:07 p.m.

#19

Leafsfan98

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 9,759

Likes: 2,955

Quoting: OwnGoal

As he said Toffoli is who he would like to sign but is unlikely so the toffoli money plus leftover cap would cover Norris and a 4m ish player. 🤷

Then it would make sense...

However, who would be that 4 mill player and where would Norris fit?

OwnGoal liked this.

Mar. 18 at 5:09 p.m.

#20

Leafsfan98

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 9,759

Likes: 2,955

Quoting: Barnacle_Ed

Norris is likely to be back by the start of the 24-25 season... Meaning, you'd have to sign someone to 2 mill less as he can't stay on LTIR if healthy

Mar. 18 at 5:41 p.m.

#21

Barnacle_Ed

Thread Starter

An Old Fart Sens Fan

Joined: Apr. 2022

Posts: 29

Likes: 13

Quoting: Leafsfan98

Norris is likely to be back by the start of the 24-25 season... Meaning, you'd have to sign someone to 2 mill less as he can't stay on LTIR if healthy

I think our disconnect is in the assumption that Norris will be healthy at all in the 2024-25 season. As I've been saying, that's the 3rd time he's injured and had surgery on the same shoulder; this is going to be a much longer timeframe than "several months" to recover and rehabilitate it. Trying to rush him back to the game directly led to his 2nd injury so I highly doubt he and his medical team will make the same mistake.

Mar. 18 at 8:41 p.m.

#22

MoxNix

Joined: Aug. 2022

Posts: 7,396

Likes: 3,178

Even if Chychrun came with an extension Calgary won't be giving up Coronato and their 2024 1st. Without an extension they wouldn't trade either one for him.

With no extension they might trade Vancouver's 1st and a B prospect or something. With an extension you'd definitely get Vancouver's 1st and the Flames would add Pelletier or someone else pretty good but probably not Coronato.

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