Sensical Off-Season Plan

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: Ryminister_92

Team: 2024-25 Ottawa Senators

Initial Creation Date: Mar. 29, 2024

Published: Mar. 29, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Overview:
Staios enters his first off-season as GM with about $20,049,286M in cap space and a new head coach to hire. Assuming new owner Micheal Andlauer allows him to open the books and spend to improve the team, I don’t think the roster is too far off from at least being a wild card contender. If both Staios and Andlauer get their hope fulfilled, they’ll have a new head coach by the time the draft rolls around and current Marlies head coach John Gruden is the perfect fit - he’ll be cheap and fresh as a first time NHL head coach, he has experience behind the bench of a winning team since he was an associate coach of the historical Bruins team in 2022-2023, and he has a history with both Staios and Andlauer having won a OHL championship with the Hamilton Bulldogs.

Offence:
The core will likely remain in tack as they’re young and still have room to grow, but bringing in a veteran winner and professional like Tyler Toffoli would greatly benefit the young players to learn from. Aside from Toffoli, I think also reshaping the bottom 6 to be a complete pain in the ass to play against every night is the best route - this would just allow the top 6 to focus on scoring more and also take some pressure off of Tkachuk physically. Bringing in Yanni Gourde gives the team an identity 3rd line that will just drive opponents nuts every time they’re on the ice.

Defence:
For the most part, this will be a tough area to address. The biggest area of need to address is a top 4 right handed shot defender and while Ottawa has been linked to Chris Tanev, I just don’t see the mutual interest there. However, a very solid second option should be Alex Carrier who plays a similar style and really rounds the defence out more. With Chychrun entering his final year of his contract, this would allow the team time to assess whether to sign him to an extension and try to move Chabot, or move Chychrun and still have a reliable option with Chabot to back him up.

Goalies:
This has been a major area of concern for the Sens and I personally don’t see a viable option to fix it outside of trusting the guy they signed last off-season to rebound and have a strong year. Forsberg hasn’t been good enough and has a cheap buyout option so I think that should be explored and give Mads Søgaard the opportunity as a backup.

Taxi squad players are guys to be sent to the AHL but will be first options for call-ups when needed.

Assuming Ottawa keeps their 2024 1st round pick and defers their loss of pick to a different year, it gives them a bunch of picks to work with this year for maneuvering in the draft - wouldn't be shocked to see them move up a bit and target guys as it is a weaker draft so why not go after a few guys that you like rather than add too many to the system.

Coming into the 24/25 season I'd say the biggest area to be addressed would be the defence but that would be sorted out with the Chychrun/Chabot debate. The goaltending could also be worrisome but I've also felt like that's more of an indicator of the team play in front of them so the new coach should help improve that area.

Thoughts?

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Pinto, Shane	2	$3,855,500
Søgaard, Mads	2	$875,000
Thomson, Lassi	1	$874,125
Rees, Jamieson	2	$805,000
Sokolov, Egor	1	$800,000
Kelly, Parker	1	$775,000
Crookshank, Angus	2	$815,000

UFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Toffoli, Tyler	4	$5,115,000
Carrier, Alexandre	5	$4,000,000
Lafferty, Sam	1	$1,215,000
Comrie, Eric	1	$925,000
Fleury, Haydn	1	$865,000
Gawdin, Glenn	1	$775,000
McKeown, Roland	1	$775,000
Barré-Boulet, Alex	2	$827,500

CREATED		YEARS	CAP HIT
Levshunov, Artyom		3	$950,000

Trades

OTT

2024 1st round pick (CBJ)
2024 3rd round pick (LAK)
2024 6th round pick (CBJ)

Additional Details:

*Assuming picks are #8 and #27

Bold move made at the draft by new management, Sens see their shot to move up and draft right handed defender Artyom Levshunov from Michigan State of the NCAA.

CBJ

2024 1st round pick (BOS)
2024 1st round pick (OTT)

Additional Details:

*Assuming picks are #4, #83, and #179

With the Jackets already having David Jiricek in the system as their potential future top pair right handed defender, the move back a few spots and select Cayden Lindstrom from Medicine Hat of the WHL with the #8 pick and with the #27 pick they select Matvei Gridin from the Muskegon Lumberjacks of the USHL.

OTT

2025 4th round pick (CAR)

Additional Details:

With Carolina likely losing a few of their defenders to free agency this summer, bringing in Brannstrom offers a young replacement that’s shown his reliable in his own end and can move the puck decently well. Should adjust and fit into Brind’Amour’s system with ease and could develop into a middle pair guy that can play both sides.

CAR

Brännström, Erik [RFA Rights]

Additional Details:

Brannstrom has lost his spot on the Sens roster. With the team likely forfeiting their 25' 1st round pick, they look to add a mid round selection to still bring in a prospect.

OTT

Gourde, Yanni
Ottavainen, Ville
2025 3rd round pick (SEA)
2026 6th round pick (SEA)

Additional Details:

Sens take a big risk here and make a shake up with a bold deal involving Norris. Rumours out there state that management wants to bring in more “pros and winning experience” and Gourde is just that. He’ll help bring an identity to the 3rd line and can play in the top 6 in a pinch. An extension does not come as part of the deal due to Norris’ injury concerns, but I’m sure one could be easily figured out shortly after the trade or into the season.
Ottavainen offers a prospect with some upside in case Gourde doesn’t re-sign. He’s not the most mobile of defenders, but he’s very reliable defensively and can play physical. Should have the chance to be a middle pair guy one day and being right handed he’ll give the Sens some depth at a position that lacks it.

SEA

Bernard-Docker, Jacob
Norris, Joshua
2025 5th round pick (OTT)

Additional Details:

Norris’ value may be at an all time low after multiple shoulder surgeries and rehab, but there’s no doubt as to what he can do on the ice when healthy - produce offence. Seattle should look to address their scoring issues and may be willing to take a chance on Norris and hope that his injuries are behind him. If he’s healthy, he’s a point per game threat and would slide in nicely as their 1C.
Bernard-Docker is in need of a change of scenery. There may be some potential left, but he’s falling down the depth chart with free agent signings and poor play when he does play. He’s still mobile defender that moves the puck well but his decision making needs to improve.

Buyouts

Colin White: -$625,000
Anton Forsberg: $916,667

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$87,700,000	$87,716,172	$850,000	$0	-$16,172

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Tkachuk, Brady $8,205,714$8,205,714 LW UFA - 4	Stützle, Tim $8,350,000$8,350,000 C UFA - 7	Giroux, Claude $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, C NMC UFA - 1
Toffoli, Tyler $5,115,000$5,115,000 RW, LW UFA	Pinto, Shane $3,855,500$3,855,500 C RFA	Batherson, Drake $4,975,000$4,975,000 RW, LW UFA - 3
Greig, Ridly $863,333$863,333 C, LW RFA - 1	Gourde, Yanni $5,166,666$5,166,666 C, LW, RW M-NTC UFA - 1	Joseph, Mathieu $2,950,000$2,950,000 LW, RW UFA - 2
Järventie, Roby $894,167$894,167 LW RFA - 1	Kastelic, Mark $835,000$835,000 C, RW RFA - 1	Lafferty, Sam $1,215,000$1,215,000 RW, C, LW UFA

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Sanderson, Jake $8,050,000$8,050,000 LD UFA - 8	Zub, Artem $4,600,000$4,600,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 3	Korpisalo, Joonas $4,000,000$4,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 4
Chychrun, Jakob $4,600,000$4,600,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 1	Carrier, Alexandre $4,000,000$4,000,000 RD UFA	Søgaard, Mads $875,000$875,000 G RFA
Chabot, Thomas $8,000,000$8,000,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 4	Hamonic, Travis $1,100,000$1,100,000 RD NMC UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Kelly, Parker $775,000$775,000 LW RFA		Levshunov, Artyom $950,000$950,000
Thomson, Lassi $874,125$874,125 RD RFA
MacEwen, Zack $775,000$775,000 RW, C UFA - 2

Taxi Squad
Comrie, Eric $925,000$925,000 ($0$0$0$0) G UFA
Fleury, Haydn $865,000$865,000 ($0$0$0$0) LD/RD UFA
Gawdin, Glenn $775,000$775,000 ($0$0$0$0) C, RW UFA
McKeown, Roland $775,000$775,000 ($0$0$0$0) RD UFA
Barré-Boulet, Alex $827,500$827,500 ($0$0$0$0) RW, LW UFA

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Tkachuk, B.		Stützle, T.		Toffoli, T.
	Giroux, C.		Chychrun, J.

Power Play 2
Batherson, D.		Pinto, S.		Gourde, Y.
	Chabot, T.		Sanderson, J.

Penalty Kill 1
	Gourde, Y.	Greig, R.
	Sanderson, J.	Zub, A.

Penalty Kill 2
	Pinto, S.	Joseph, M.
	Chabot, T.	Carrier, A.

Mar. 29 at 7:40 p.m.

dk325

Dolzhenkov Is Coming

Joined: Mar. 2022

Posts: 3,645

Likes: 5,276

It's weird how the majority of CBJ proposals on here have them downgrading their top young players or picks for more depth. It seems like the most common knowledge thing about the Jackets is that they have no star players, so I don't get why people expect them to just acquire even more lower quality parts. If the CBJ have a chance to pick high they're the last team that's going to trade that chance for depth.

Nhl_oilers, Viqsi and CaseyFlyman liked this.

Mar. 29 at 7:46 p.m.

Ryminister_92

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 1,983

Likes: 788

Quoting: dk325

As mentioned in the description - if Columbus is to pick at #4 and they're already satisfied with Jiricek being their future #1 guy I could see them trading down a few spots to get another pick. & in this scenario it's not like they're moving down 10 spots and only picking up a 3rd to do so. They're moving down 4 spots while still picking up another late round 1st round pick, and still picking a pretty sought after prospect at #8 in Lindstrom. Doesn't seem like Columbus is losing much of the talent for only moving down a few spots.

Mar. 29 at 8:37 p.m.

Nhl_oilers

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 7,990

Likes: 4,211

Quoting: Ryminister_92

I know this is opinion based for where guys will rank in the draft, but coming from a guy who has researched the hell out of Lindstrom, there is no way he falls to 8OA. He will be a top 5 pick, if not top 3. Celebrini will of course be 1OA, so I see Demidov, Lindstrom, Levshunov, and Catton being very close to each other to be picked 2OA. If Lindstrom fell that much, I would be shocked!

Keeping 4OA, and just snagging Lindstrom if that’s who they want, is way better than trading back, and hoping that he will be there at 8OA imo.

Ryminister_92 liked this.

Mar. 29 at 8:40 p.m.

dk325

Dolzhenkov Is Coming

Joined: Mar. 2022

Posts: 3,645

Likes: 5,276

Quoting: Ryminister_92

I don't think that logic follows. Teams go with BPA almost uniformly no matter what they already have in the cupboard. Nashville would be a prime example of a team that didn't stop picking defensemen just because they already had solid dmen in their system. Eventually they traded one for a center that they badly needed.

For this deal to make sense I'd want something like 8 and a pick in the 10-14 range. Late firsts are wildly overvalued and very often turn into nothing.

Mar. 29 at 8:42 p.m.

Ryminister_92

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 1,983

Likes: 788

Quoting: Nhl_oilers

Drafts are so unpredictable. Just because one team may have a player at #4 on their board doesn't mean that other teams do. Look at last year for example - nobody had Simashev going #6 but Arizona did and kept the pick. No one also had Colby Barlow dropping to #18 but he did.. drafts are such a crap show these days

Nhl_oilers liked this.

Mar. 29 at 8:46 p.m.

Nhl_oilers

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 7,990

Likes: 4,211

Quoting: Ryminister_92

They are… I did my own mock draft for last year, and did so bad haha!

Honestly though, besides Arizona, who did have Simashev going 6OA? We will see who will be right, but hey, if Lindstrom does drop that much, that would be a steal for whatever team is picking there!

OldNYIfan liked this.

Mar. 29 at 8:51 p.m.

Ryminister_92

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 1,983

Likes: 788

Quoting: Nhl_oilers

Teams value players different internally. Everyone thinks that each team drafts the "best player available" but thats just not true even though teams will say it is. Best case of that is Toronto last season - no one had them taking Cowan in the 1st round and he was projected to be a 3rd would pick. They took him though because he was a position of need and they saw something in him that no one else did and they knew if they waited till their next pick he'd be gone so they jumped at it to take him and it worked out great so far. Then you have situations like Montreal not trading back and taking Reinbacher and he's looked awful this season.
It's so hard to predict how a 17 or 18 year old kid is going to work out in 3-5 years.

CaseyFlyman liked this.

Mar. 29 at 9:19 p.m.

Jacketsman61

Joined: May 2016

Posts: 4,405

Likes: 892

If the Jackets were trading the 4OA they would be trading for a legit 1C. But the Jackets are very unlikely to do that bc we should have our pick of some of the top C in the draft. If the 4OA is involved the Jackets would likely want either Stutzle or Tkachuk. But since that is not going to happen, the Jackets aren’t interested.

Viqsi, SK101 and squashmaple liked this.

Mar. 29 at 9:19 p.m.

StutzlesNumber1Fan

Joined: Jan. 2024

Posts: 676

Likes: 506

I appreciate taking your time with each trade and description. I wish more ppl would actually do that lmao.

Ryminister_92, squashmaple and CaseyFlyman liked this.

Mar. 29 at 10:26 p.m.

#10

Viqsi

mostly harmless

Joined: Feb. 2016

Posts: 6,734

Likes: 3,222

Quoting: dk325

Frankly, at this point I think it's in most cases a subconscious impulse in which folks end up only really feeling comfortable in a world where we're a perpetual farm team that just doesn't get such players - and that in the other cases, it's conscious and deliberate. I legit cannot come up with any other plausible explanation for why something so painfully jaw-droppingly obvious would otherwise keep eluding people.

In this described scenario, even with confidence in Jiricek, taking Levshunov would be the obvious play regardless because there's nobody behind him and we need that backup policy, while there's other center candidates in the system.

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Mar. 29 at 10:59 p.m.

#11

Caniac2000

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 19,540

Likes: 5,033

Canes pass. Don't have the cap, you'd need to take something back

Mar. 29 at 11:15 p.m.

#12

Ryminister_92

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 1,983

Likes: 788

Quoting: Caniac2000

Canes pass. Don't have the cap, you'd need to take something back

Don’t have the cap? They have almost $31M in projected cap space and the only notable RFA’s to sign are Jarvis and Necas.
Canes are likely losing Pesce and Skjei so there’s a need at the position.

So let’s say that on the high end Jarvis and Necas cost $15M together. Where are you spending the other $16M? They have plenty of cap.

Not to mention that Brannstrom is a RFA himself and likely won’t see a raise over the $2M he made this season. & you’ll generally spend around $2M to get a third pair guy in UFA anyways.. at least Brannstrom provides a good defensive guy with some upside.

What are you smoking.

Mar. 29 at 11:40 p.m.

#13

Caniac2000

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 19,540

Likes: 5,033

Quoting: Ryminister_92

Guentzel... Teravainen... Drury... also have to replace Pesce, Skjei, Chatfield, Martinook, Noesen... there isn't 2 million to blow on a 3rd pairing D man. But you know, you clearly think you know more than me on this situation. Pipe down. Carolina don't have the room without money going back, probably Fast in this situation.

Mar. 29 at 11:44 p.m.

#14

Ryminister_92

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 1,983

Likes: 788

Quoting: Caniac2000

Guentzel likely ain't re-signing. Teravainen can easily be replaced or not much more than he's making now. Drury won't make much as a 4th liner. If he's over $1.5M then you're wasting your money. Hmm, you say you need to find someone to replace 2 defenceman yet you're saying you don't have room to acquire a defenceman? Brannstrom likely comes in under $2M, or maybe $2M at most which is a fine price for a guy that would play on the third pair in Carolina. But sure, go spend more on a UFA defender to do the exact same thing

Mar. 29 at 11:46 p.m.

#15

seanrushton

Joined: Apr. 2023

Posts: 4,334

Likes: 1,237

Quoting: Ryminister_92

They are so unpredictable both in terms of where players fall and they being... just look at Nail Yakupov, Alex Galchenyuk, Jaccob Slavin and Jalen Chatfield

Mar. 29 at 11:51 p.m.

#16

Caniac2000

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 19,540

Likes: 5,033

Quoting: Ryminister_92

Guentzel's going to cost around 9, Jarvis about 5 if he's bridged, Necas around 8, that's 23 million. Say Drury makes 2 as a good 3rd liner, 25, Teuvo makes 5, 30. Already that cap space is gone. Means Canes are going to need cheap deals and ELCs like... oh, I don't know Scott Morrow and Alexander Nikishin? Means Brannstrom is an asset they cannot afford without moving out cap, probably Fast.

Mar. 30 at 5:36 a.m.

#17

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,473

Likes: 25,370

Quoting: Nhl_oilers

Agree completely with this. The only player that Anaheim will prefer to Levshunov is Celebrini, and I'd be willing to bet that Lindstrom is going before #6. In fact, I think that if the Ducks miss out on Levshunov, Lindstrom is their most likely consolation.

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Mar. 30 at 11:54 a.m.

#18

Nhl_oilers

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 7,990

Likes: 4,211

Quoting: OldNYIfan

Same here! If Lindstrom fell to 6, then whoever is picking then would be one happy camper. I’ve been looking at the mock drafts by the folks on this site, and it seems like a lot of them underrate him.

That is actually not fair of Anaheim ahha! If they get Levshunov, their defence, if everyone pans out will be insane! Mintyukov, Zellweger, Levshunov, Helleson, Luneau, Warren.. LaCombe ain’t no scrub on defence either.

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Mar. 30 at 12:00 p.m.

#19

Ryminister_92

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 1,983

Likes: 788

Quoting: OldNYIfan

Not sure how Anaheim even became part of this discussion…

But who did you talk to that works for Anaheim that told you that? I’m guessing no one. Drafts are very unpredictable. What one team determines as better might not be what another team thinks.

Most people had Zach Benson going top 10 last year, or at very least top 15 and he fell to 18. Stuff like that happens ever year. It’s not all about the kids play on ice, there’s off ice things scours find out too plus the pre draft interviews. Nothing says for sure that Anaheim wants either Lindstrom or Levshunov.

Mar. 30 at 12:23 p.m.

#20

squashmaple

not a he )

Joined: Apr. 2022

Posts: 3,220

Likes: 4,384

Quoting: OldNYIfan

I can’t see Lindstrom getting past Columbus unless somehow the lottery is so unkind they end up shoved down to pick sixth. He just seems like too obvious of a pick, whether he ends up as a wing on a line with Fantilli and Gaudreau or as a 2C between Johnson and Laine or Marchenko. I’m just glad it looks like the two teams’ goals are different, because watching Anaheim pick Columbus’s preferred player a fourth year in a row would be too much.

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Mar. 30 at 4:48 p.m.

#21

BlueJacketsandBuckeyes

Joined: Jan. 2021

Posts: 237

Likes: 168

Feels like the CBJ trade would only really happen if it makes sense and happens in the draft floor as the board shakes out… too many unpredictable factors before any trade comes to light.

Mar. 31 at 8:39 p.m.

#22

CaseyFlyman

Joined: Sep. 2018

Posts: 2,081

Likes: 1,748

Quoting: Ryminister_92

If Lindstrom was 100% available at 8 I'd do that in a heartbeat, but I think he'll be gone by then, so it's a little unlikely. I also don't think we should be passing up on Levshunov if he's available, and I'm high on Jiricek. The biggest issue is we barely have any NHL-ceiling RD in the system aside from Jiricek (Ceulemans is the only other one and he's been struggling), so that's one position that could actually use some help.

I think Columbus is just going to take best player available wherever they fall. Having a Jiricek or Fantilli in the system isn't a reason to pass on a Levshunov or Celebrini if we get really lucky. We just need as many potential stars as possible.

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