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Konofish

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Aug. 23, 2020
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Washington Capitals
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Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 4, 2020 at 5:32 p.m.
Thread: gonna be tight no trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kylonetic8</b></div><div>I mean does anyone here really think Vanacek can't manage 2.85gaa and .900sv%, which is exactly what Mike Smith and Holtby have been for years. Copley, a career AHLer/backup managed better than that for us in 18-19.</div></div>

I am not sure. I think there is a chance that V(2) could actually be better than that. I think there is a chance he could struggle mightily as an NHL rookie. I think there is more certainty in what you are getting from Cam Talbot, Greiss, etc. When creating a backup or 1B goalie for Samsonov, who has not handled a full-time NHL workload yet, there is value in a veteran presence, who could provide both competition and monitorship, experience, locker room presence, etc. And if you have a team that you think/hope is Cup ready, I think there is value in minimizing risk. None of that is meant as a knock on Vanacek, and I'll be delighted if he's a successful member of the Caps for years to come.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 4, 2020 at 2:46 p.m.
Thread: Could Krug be an option on the Blueline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kalopsia</b></div><div>Caps aren't trading Wilson, please stop offering Nylander for him. He's a fan favorite, future captain, and is at least above average at every facet of the games besides faceoffs, and he's not even that bad at those. It would take a ridiculous overpay to get him and this isn't it.</div></div>

Beat me to the punch. It's not that this isn't a good or fair offer, or even a little better than that. It's that Wilson is so unique in the NHL, and is so important to the Capitals as a player, locker room presence, fan favorite, tone setter, and leader, that his on-ice production is only part of his value. Is the Nylander plus package tempting? Sure. But I think the Caps could find someone Nylander-esque before they could find someone like Wilson.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 4, 2020 at 2:29 p.m.
Thread: gonna be tight no trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kylonetic8</b></div><div>Obviously they're not as good. Did I say they were?
Indeed it is, that’s like...where players develop and ****. You know? And Vanecek has had plenty of time there, time to see if he has what it takes for the NHL.
</div></div>

Re: Time to see if he has what it takes for the NHL
This is exactly the heart of the argument why I am *not* necessarily comfortable going with Sammy and VV next season. A mid rebuild team has plenty of time to see who has what it takes. A young team with little to lose has time to see who has what it takes. A veteran team that just fired its coach for winning two division titles but no playoff series in two seasons, with a very strong, but aging core, I'm not comfortable seeing who has what it takes. So I want to see the Caps have a goalie along with Sammy who the Caps are confident can give them 30-35 regular season starts and who could possibly step in for a month in an injury situation, though if the guy they acquire is to be a true backup but VV would be called up in a long term injury situation, ok maybe. If the Caps brass is 1000% comfortable that is VV... ok, roll the dice I guess. But I would feel much better off with one of Crawford, Greiss, Talbot, even Brian Elliot or mayyyybe Aaron Dell. (I suspect Khudobin will be far too expensive and will be in Dallas, but sure, if he wants to be in DC, come on.)
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 3, 2020 at 6:20 p.m.
Thread: gonna be tight no trades
Sprong looked good in pre-bubble camp, yes. He could have a place in the Caps bottom six this year.
He is also a guy who was traded even up for Christian Djoos, so I encourage some calm before anointing him the savior of even the bottom six, or certainly the next Connolly.
Yes, he scored 14 goals in 63 games two years ago, (not 47 -- he was donut in 16 games with the Pens before moving to Ana). Last season he didn't even stick in Anaheim, and was on a 20 goal pace for the AHL Gulls when the Caps traded for him.
I'm glad he's a Caps asset and hope he's a valuable member of the team next season, but pencilling him in for 20 goals is like betting the house on rolling an 11. (Maybe a 10, but still.) (Also, can he skate a solid defensive shift? Yet to be seen.)
The Japer's Rink evaluation of Sprong when the Caps acquired him seems right on target. <a href="https://www.japersrink.com/2020/2/28/21153726/what-the-capitals-have-in-daniel-sprong-christian-djoos" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://www.japersrink.com/2020/2/28/21153726/what-the-capitals-have-in-daniel-sprong-christian-djoos</a>

Again, I am rooting for the guy to be great, and to be a fast, responsible, 20+ goal scoring RW in DC for a decade. I'm just not counting on it yet.

From <a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/s/spronda01.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/s/spronda01.html</a>
Similarity Scores, Career by Adjusted Point Shares (Best to Worst)
Player
Daniel Sprong
Luke Adam 93.4
Nikita Alexeev 92.8
Lloyd Gross 92.5
Brent Grieve 91.5
Jaroslav Bednar 90.6
Lonny Bohonos 89.9
Brad Tapper 89.3
Ramzi Abid 88.2
Steve Kariya 87.5
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 3, 2020 at 5:28 p.m.
Thread: Andersen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MGK</b></div><div>Samsonov was hurt in an ATV accident over the summer and was unfit to play for the postseason. There's no telling the timeframe when he'll be 100%.</div></div>

Jensen is a fine RD with good underlying numbers who got off to a bad start in DC when asked to skate on his off-side and no regular partner / spot in the lineup. With a stable pair next season he'll be a fine 3rd pair RD who can easily out perform his cap hit. No need to move him at all. (Now, you want Michal Kempny, great. Orlov should be available for a good offer. But Jensen is one of two RD on the Caps or close to ready in the system.)

In the unlikely event that Samsonov is not fit to be the Caps goalie, they'll make an offer to Holtby. Andersen serves the Caps needs exactly zero. It's not that he's a terrible player, he's just not a fit in DC at all. Like the Leafs, caps need a solid 2-way right shot defenseman, plus a cheap veteran goalie, and an maybe an injection of youth and speed on the bottom six (or maybe a top six winger). Andersen just isn't what the Caps are using assets for.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 3, 2020 at 5:05 a.m.
Thread: sabres
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kalopsia</b></div><div>Vanecek can handle the backup role, he's been an All Star in the AHL two years in a row and only costs 700K. Siegenthaler, Boyd, and Sprong are RFAs who'll be re-signed with minimal raises, say 1.2, 0.9, and 0.9 respectively. McMichael and Fehervary are expected to become full time players, and they each cost less than 1M. Kempny's likely on his way out, which saves 2.5M. Taking all of that into account you have 14 forwards, 5 defensemen, and 2 goalies with about 7.5M in cap space to add the last two defensemen. Cap space isn't an issue for the Caps this season.

Of course, even if it was this still wouldn't make sense. Orlov is their #2 defenseman and defense is their biggest area of need, so all of the savings from trading him would have to go right back into finding someone to replace him.</div></div>

Caps fan who respectfully disagrees. I think Orlov is a terrific asset to move, particularly if the Caps resign Dillon. Caps need a very good right shot defenseman, a veteran goalie, some retool on the bottom 6, and to get younger and faster in general. Orlov is a very good B/B+ LD and should be attractive to lots of teams. Now, that said... not sure Middelstadt is who the Caps need. Big flashing "might not be as good as advertised" warning, if the Caps make moves, they need a little higher degree of certainty of what they're getting in return. Also, this really makes Middelstadt look so not good... <a href="https://lastwordonsports.com/hockey/2020/07/11/drafting-casey-mittelstadt-was-a-bad-idea/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://lastwordonsports.com/hockey/2020/07/11/drafting-casey-mittelstadt-was-a-bad-idea/</a>
TL;DR: Orlov should be traded, Caps need RD first, veteran goalie, young fast forward second.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 3, 2020 at 4:32 a.m.
Thread: GM Game
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KVS1</b></div><div>No Siegs? 3rd line has no offense. Leason no O in AHL, may be a bust. D weaker. Need changes, trade Kuzy and Orlov, get younger and more hungry.</div></div>

Assuming Fehervary is ready for a regular NHL shift, I am also a proponent of moving Orlov. Not because he's bad -- because he's good, but at a position (LD) where the Caps have cheaper depth (and hopefully Dillon on a $4 million or less deal) and can use Orlov to address a crying need (right handed D!), or create cap space / bring in return a veteran goalie to back up Samsonov, some youth and speed at wing, shakeup for the 3rd line.

I'm torn on Kuzy. Along with dumping Kempny (sure) and Jensen (no! keep him) for cap space, Kuzy seems to get traded more than any other Cap on this site. And he's a high cap number and an attractive trade target, I think, so I get the argument. And yes, he's terrible on face-offs and not... um... the most reliable defender, let's say, but he can take over a game offensively like no one on the Caps besides #8. I have read all of the "move Kuzy to the wing" arguments, and I'll admit I'm intrigued by that option, but not sure where the 2C comes from in that case. If they move Kuzy, I just hope it's for a terrific return -- younger, cheaper, faster players and/or a terrific RD+ more.

OK, maybe I should just go make a team myself...
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 31, 2020 at 8:39 p.m.
Thread: Washington
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kalopsia</b></div><div>Jeez, is Larsson really that bad?</div></div>

Larsson is not close to that bad, and will fetch more on the trade marker for sure. He is a solid RD on a $4.16 million cap hit, who probably shouldn't have been traded 1-1 for Taylor Hall, but who will be sought after if he is on the market, and certainly won't go for castoffs. If this were on the table Caps would make this trade 100 times in a row.

Separately, I am curious why this roster (and so many 20-21 Caps' rosters) have Orlov playing RD. The Caps clearly prefer him on the left -- that's why they need a RD in the first place. I would be very surprised if Orlov is asked to play on his off-hand all season. (I actually think Orlov is a likely piece to get traded, assuming BMac thinks Fehervary is ready for a regular NHL shift, particularly if he gets Dillon to stay.)
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 30, 2020 at 3:19 a.m.
Thread: Kuzy gone
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kylonetic8</b></div><div>If Minnesota want to give up all of that for Kuzy, I'd do it. I'd rather not trade Orlov though, he's our best defenseman at actually defending.</div></div>

I actually am coming around to the idea that Orlov is the asset to trade this offseason, even though I like him a lot. But the Caps only have Carlson and Jensen as natural RD, and with Siegenthaler and Fehervary hopefully getting normal shifts at LD, Orlov's cap hit makes him the LD to move. (Particularly if they resign Dillon to a $4,000,000 or less deal.) Then Kempny is effectively the 7th D, or traded. The D I really want from Min is Matt Dumba, who would be a fantastic 2nd RD behind Carlson. If the Caps line up Dillon-Carlson, Siegs-Dumba, &amp; Fehervary-Jensen next season, that feels like a solid 6 w/o crazy cap commitments. (All of this is predicated on the notion that BMac and coach to be named later deem Fehervary ready for a regular shift. No way he should be 7th D in DC at his age. If he needs a season in Hershey, then a placeholder LD makes sense. Lyubushkin's underlying #'s this year and likely inexpensive cap # are making him a popular CapFriendly trade target. I admit I'm intrigued besides barely seeing him play, &amp; I wonder if there will be the same interest from actual GM's.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 28, 2020 at 3:06 p.m.
Thread: Get Lundqvist his cup
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Blueman96</b></div><div><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Blueman96</b></div><div>1)
2) Trouba did not play well this year, you have him as an all-star "Victor Hedman" trade value. So, so far off. And the caps are looking to reduce their cap issues, not make them worse.
</div></div>

The Capitals pass on this trade. Highest priority this offseason (after hiring a coach), is improving the right side of the defense, so there are scenarios where Trouba the player could be interesting I suppose. But his cap number and term makes him a *very* dicey proposition. If the Caps made other moves to create cap space, I can envision a scenario where the Caps might swap Orlov (very good 2nd pair LD) for Trouba. But I can't see paying much more given Trouba's contract.</div></div>