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valiqs

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Jan. 12, 2017
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New York Rangers
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Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 1 at 10:37 a.m.
Thread: 3c rw1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Victor24</b></div><div>Fair enough. I honestly don't know prospects well but they both seemed like good young players.</div></div>

They are both A level prospects with more value than their respective draft pick at the moment. Othmann is much closer to NHL ready, but is naturally a LW and NYR has a logjam there with Panarin, Kreider and even Laffy ahead of him to get a top-6 LW slot over the next 3-4 years. Perreault is D+1, but a RW and NYR has a pretty solid need there on lines 1-3 so he's the more natural fit at the moment. If PIT gets an offer of Othmann, Sykora, 1st for Guentzel, they should slam the accept button immediately IMO. Then you have to see if NYR is on Guentzel's M-NTC and if he'll waive.

That being said, from NYR's perspective, I don't see them offering an A prospect (NHL ready), a B prospect, and a 1st to a division rival for a rental currently on LTIR with a questionable return time table. It's a ton of risk to take on and they may have better options with those assets.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 22 at 3:53 p.m.
Thread: Last chance
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GM69</b></div><div>depends on NYR long term cap projections. Goodrow is a buyout candidate this summer (it actually gives them an additional 200k in cap space to spend), but he has a bad year in 26-27 (it's like 3.5M) while the rest is all roughly 1m. Clifton is just 1m for the next 4 years, so if they know they'll be good next year to spend the 1m they'll likely do this and buy out clifton instead.</div></div>

Yeah, I agree. It's not a bad risk for NYR to take and could provide a softer landing than the Goodrow buyout. Additionally, it's possible NYR kicks the tires on Clifton as a 6/7 Dman in 24'-25'. He could return to form on a better team, but if it doesn't work out, buy out the last year in 25'-26'. One monkey wrench is that I would imagine that BUF is on Goodrow's NTC list so this idea might be impossible from the start. Also, I don't foresee BUF making this trade without an additional small asset going their way. Just something to even the scales a bit on the money.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 27, 2023 at 2:55 p.m.
Thread: Patrick Kane and Panarin
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Despise</b></div><div>I’ll say it a lot nicer than he did.

Kane and Panarin have had almost poetic chemistry in the past. Put those two with Mika and it’s a damn close replica of what they had in Chicago. Kreider, senko, and Vladdy gonna play together after Kane is in NY unless gallant has other plans. I honestly don’t care where they’re slotted as long as the job gets done hahah</div></div>

Yeah, not sure why the previous two comments were so hostile.

That being said, Gallant has put the line-blender on high for most of the season, which has been frustrating for fans, but I think the goal is to see what combinations can work and to require teams to game plan for many different scenarios. I mean, I love me some Mika at the Ovi-office on the PP, but it's only going to work so many times before teams find ways to defend it better. My guess is that we will see a LOT of different looks in the top-6 and probably even a few looks with Chytil at 2C or Kakko mixed in IF Patrick Kane is moved to NYR. This will continue to be frustrating to fans who want consistency, but the overall plan could be effective at creating a less predictable attack come playoff time.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 10, 2023 at 12:46 p.m.
Thread: Finishing touches
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jimbo1119</b></div><div>Excellent points here...I think you are spot on regarding his need to work on his strength. I've mentioned many times in other threads that the NHL is not a developmental league...but unfortunately the way Krav's development has been handled if he is to be an NHL player here or elsewhere development will have to happen at this level.

But just 2 more things to consider: 1. While development of most forwards does start to plateau around Krav's age, several Russian players have "popped" later than North American players. and 2. Even though Krav looks a little out of place in the NHL, he is not hurting the team for the minimal opportunity he has been given (unlike others the NYR choose to play). His analytics are actually very good for the sample size he has.

In the end, if they can receive compensation at least what they received for Lias Anderssen, I guess they have to consider...but moving Krav for a pure rental might prove disastrous. For now- as long as he isn't hurting the team (which is what the stats show) best thing is to continue to play him, and give him good minutes. With an NHL season behind him and some increased strength/conditioning....he might be ready to blossom.</div></div>

Some good points here too. Especially your second point about not hurting the team with his current play and opportunities. It's also possible that injuries or other factors could force him back in the lineup anyway. One thing to be careful with the analytics is the small sample size right now, but I guess you can't get a bigger sample size for more meaningful analytics without playing the guy lol.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 10, 2023 at 11:20 a.m.
Thread: Finishing touches
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ab27</b></div><div>That's a great though, might as well use Kravtsov to see if it can work out and if not, hopefully boost his trade value. So unfortunate because he really would have benefitted from a year or two of working in the AHL to better accruement to NHL game. Right now, it seems like he is just not good enough to be in top 6 and not the type of player to be in the bottom 6.</div></div>

I think the one big thing we are missing with Kravy on the bench recently is that he's likely spending a ton of time in the gym to get up to top 6 level speed/strength, which is where he needs the most work. His skills are there, just not the full athletic and physical nature of a top-6 NHL role. It's really tough to build to that level when you're playing games every other night mid-season.

I know lots of people will say that he should be at that level now! He's 23 and not a developing kid anymore. The problem with that is this is his first full NHL season. He's closer to a year behind Laf/Kakko, in terms of development than trying to be their contemporary. I think if NYR is patient with him and Kravy is dedicated to earning his spot, he will get a shot on the top 6 with Kakko, but there's a ton of off-ice and practice work to be done with him first. I don't think that work can be completed during this season, much less 11 games.

IMO, work on the kid through this season and the off-season and see how it translates on ice next year. Don't move him unless the offer you get is too good to turn down.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 9, 2023 at 11:32 p.m.
Thread: The Rangers are in serious trouble of an offer sheet
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>vikhodush</b></div><div>I appreciate how well thought out the original post was and your responses, really good stuff.

I think the way a team could get at the rangers assuming they don’t get the Miller and Laf signed ahead of the OS timeline would be to send an uncomfortable OS at Laf that the rangers sign and then follow that up with a much harder one for Chytil once they’ve been put up against it with Laf. Not sure if this is realistic or feasible but that’s how I would conceptually go after it.

I was waiting for you to get to the Canes as a potential option here. They’ve already shown they’re willing to go that route and the need is there. They’ve maintained cap flexibility even as they’ve moved to contender status and even though they’re going to be due some raises for their core I think they still have plenty of flexibility for a move like this while also not putting a target on their back. It’s true KK hasn’t become what we wanted yet, but at the same time he’s seen as an easy Staal replacement at 3C whenever Staal hangs them up with a small potential remaining to become the 2C we all hoped he’d turn into. I don’t think that’ll deter them from making a move like this for Chytil if it came down to it though.</div></div>

Thanks. NYR is my number 1 team by far, but CAR is actually my wife's team so I follow them pretty closely too. We're going to the stadium series next week to watch the Canes blow the Caps out of the water. Gunna be fun.

Also, I would say you are mostly correct. The Canes front office/coaching is absolutely master class at cap management. They go HARD after a guy they want while also being ready to walk away from players at the right time. And they do all that while putting a contender on the ice. I've watched it for a few years now and all I can say is, "Bravo. Keep it up." This is why it's imperative for NYR to not be slow on their RFA deals this year unless they want to risk a situation that you mentioned. In that case, you either let one guy go and take the picks, go the buyout route and pay for the dead cap later on, or figure out a creative trade where maybe you give up a few more future assets than you should to make sure your young guys stay.

However, I'm not sure anyone would really want to risk giving Laf a juicy one-year contract. If you offer Laf something like 4.2M for 1 year, his QO the next year would be over 5M. If Laf doesn't take steps, that deal is a pretty big albatross, so he'd become a UFA. Also, even Laf would know this and maybe not sign that deal. If you were him, would you risk one-year at 4.2M on a 'bet-on-yourself' deal knowing his past play (which has been okay, but not exactly sterling) or take a 2-year bridge to try to build your skills/resume to a long term, high value contract? Now if some team offers him 4.2M for 7 years, I think NYR says, "take him and good luck with you 3rd line LW making as much as a 2C." It would be a VERY interesting day, if an OS happens, though.

Finally, the one thing I will give a small push back on is that I don't think ANY player can really replace Jordan Staal at 3C. He's one of the best 3C's I've ever seen. That role is just so perfect for him that I don't think you can just slot any C into it and expect similar results. He provides a differentiation of skill from every other C on the team that forces opponents to game plan against him where they wouldn't need to focus on his size/faceoff/defensive prowess if it were just Aho/KK/Stastny/Stepan. If I were CAR, I'd consider re-signing him, just at less than he makes now. Say, 3.5M for 2 years. You get a perfect role player back, his leadership, the fans get to keep their captain, you gain 2M in net cap space, and you likely get a contract you can easily trade at the TDL in 2025.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 9, 2023 at 7:18 p.m.
Thread: The Rangers are in serious trouble of an offer sheet
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>valiqs</b></div><div>So right now Laf and Miller are Group 1 RFAs until July 1 (remember they are coming off their ELC), which means they are ineligible for an offer sheet until that time. Since QO's are due by June 25th, NYR should make it a priority to nail down contracts on both players before the threat of any offer sheets. Miller should get the Slavin contract (7yr x 5.3M), Laf gets the Kakko bridge (2yr x 2.1M). Problem solved there.

At that point, Chytil is the only player at risk of an offer sheet. Anything below 4.2M, NYR will take immediately. Remember that NYR has over 16M in cap space for signings next year. Will the Miller and Laf signings above, they will have no issues matching an offer below the 4.2M threshold. If a team offers Chytil anything below 6M, NYR likely takes the contract. If a team offers over 6.3M, NYR should probably take the 3 compensatory picks. I think the only debate in NYR's camp would be an offer around 6-6.2M with term.

Also, recall that NYR is not afraid to buyout players. They do it all the time. Trouba will not likely get traded (due to his contract status, not his captaincy), but he can get bought out. Goodrow, on the other hand is not an immovable contract at all. Check his stats. He has had career years each year he's been with NYR. He still has positive value even with his current deal despite what people on this site seem to think.</div></div>

Also, just want to add a few things:

- Several teams don't have the compensatory picks to offer over 4.2M = COL, EDM, FLA, OTT, TBL, and TOR
- Several teams are just starting their rebuild years so having Chytil as a prime 2C during re-build years is not going to help = ANA, ARI, CHI, CBJ, PHI, STL, VAN and SJS
- Several teams have a long term or burgeoning 1/2C combo already = BUF, CAL, DAL, MTL, NJD, PIT, SEA, WSH, VGK, and WPG
- Several teams have a worse cap outlook for next season than NYR (so no cap leverage) = LAK, NYI, NSH, and MIN

This leave us with BOS, CAR, and DET with the picks, a 2C need, not in a full re-build, and with cap leverage.

- BOS cannot offer over 6.2M since they don't have the compensatory picks. Also, they have priorities with Pasta and Swayman, who both have earned raises. Makes it tricky for them to navigate a deal NYR won't match and also not put them in a future cap crunch.
- DET would be silly to offer sheet Chytil IF they re-sign Dylan Larkin. Right now, Larkin is a better player and Chytil's ceiling may not be that high. That would give them Larkin/Copp as a long term 1/2C pair, which is strong going forward and then they don't need Chytil on an overvalue offer sheet contract.
- CAR is the one to worry about. I think Chytil would pair perfectly with Necas and Svechnikov on the 2nd pair. My concern would be CAR getting burned by the KK offer sheet. They may be wary about such decisions in the future. Also, NYR MIGHT still match any contract below the the 3 compensatory picks needed to get Chytil, which is a hefty cap and pick price to pay.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 9, 2023 at 2:34 p.m.
Thread: The Rangers are in serious trouble of an offer sheet
So right now Laf and Miller are Group 1 RFAs until July 1 (remember they are coming off their ELC), which means they are ineligible for an offer sheet until that time. Since QO's are due by June 25th, NYR should make it a priority to nail down contracts on both players before the threat of any offer sheets. Miller should get the Slavin contract (7yr x 5.3M), Laf gets the Kakko bridge (2yr x 2.1M). Problem solved there.

At that point, Chytil is the only player at risk of an offer sheet. Anything below 4.2M, NYR will take immediately. Remember that NYR has over 16M in cap space for signings next year. Will the Miller and Laf signings above, they will have no issues matching an offer below the 4.2M threshold. If a team offers Chytil anything below 6M, NYR likely takes the contract. If a team offers over 6.3M, NYR should probably take the 3 compensatory picks. I think the only debate in NYR's camp would be an offer around 6-6.2M with term.

Also, recall that NYR is not afraid to buyout players. They do it all the time. Trouba will not likely get traded (due to his contract status, not his captaincy), but he can get bought out. Goodrow, on the other hand is not an immovable contract at all. Check his stats. He has had career years each year he's been with NYR. He still has positive value even with his current deal despite what people on this site seem to think.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 5, 2022 at 12:35 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 1, 2022 at 12:46 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 14, 2021 at 12:37 a.m.
Thread: Canucks Trade with 21-22 Layout
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shakabakes</b></div><div>While a 2nd and a Prospect can be done, the Devils and Rangers aren't going to LOWER their price by being pitted against one another.

They aren't eager to take on Eriksson. They are just doing it for a significant sweetener. If it's not sweet enough, then they have no intention of taking it on.

Vancouver isn't selling an asset. They are trying to unload a Dump. Being pressed against a Flat Cap puts them at a disadvantage when bargaining. Not the other way around.</div></div>

Yes, I understand the point of the deal. I'm saying that if you're VAN, do you call both NYR and NJD and then let them know that you're looking to dump the contract with their rival who is already interested at a lower price than a 1st rounder? Both have cap space as an asset so why not find the lowest bidder? A 2nd round pick is still pretty significant, but the value of the contract could easily warrant a 1st if there were only one buyer for it instead of two.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 14, 2021 at 12:14 a.m.
Thread: Canucks Trade with 21-22 Layout
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shakabakes</b></div><div>According to their page, the Canucks have about $16M in space, with 16 players signed (it says 13, I counted 16). If the plan is to lock up Hughes and Petterson long term, that eats up practically all of that. Then you still have 2 or 3 Roster spots to fill out. Couple other lesser RFA's to give a raise. It's tight.</div></div>

I would say that I could see them doing a deal with Seattle, but won't that be their nemesis team? Maybe that sours plans for a cap space trade by pushing the value even higher? Sending the contract back East makes sense from that perspective and NYR will have a LOT of space this offseason (unless something happens). Perhaps VAN could pit NYR and NJD against each other to try to lower the value here? Would a 2nd and a prospect be reasonable w/o VAN retaining?
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 13, 2021 at 11:36 p.m.
Thread: Canucks Trade with 21-22 Layout
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KPasty</b></div><div>If van retains 50% to a team that’s willing to buy him out after his bonus is paid out. The cap hit is only $2M this year and 500k next year for each team. Realistically could be dumped for a 3rd and a prospect and maybe a late round pick.</div></div>

The two questions in that scenario are:

1) Who is your partner to make that 50% retained trade for the buyout? Most of the teams with space to do that deal need that space for their own RFA's this offseason. Was thinking maybe NJD (maybe Seattle would play ball?), but they have a lot of RFA's who need raises and some entering arb. They might not bite for a 3rd unless the prospect is very solid. Perhaps a 2nd in that case.

2) Does retaining $3 million even make the trade worth it for VAN? If the goal is cap relief, does retaining money while giving away multiple high-value assets really make it worth it?

Finally, does VAN even need to move Eriksson's contract? I know it would help, but the price is super high right now. Could they just buy him out or weather the storm and deal with the last year of it while also signing Petey and Hughes? I'm not up on VAN's situation so I ask looking for info.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 8, 2020 at 1:27 a.m.
Thread: NYR-CAR Connection Again
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ronwilby74</b></div><div>Nope, they already tried this experiment with Eric Staal and it backfired. The Rangers want younger and cheaper not old and expensive</div></div>

I appreciate the feedback. I would like to point out that Eric Staal had only 20 games with NYR and was still +1 overall with them with a career resurgence the next 2-3 seasons in MIN. It doesn't seem like Eric Staal was the issue there, more that he wasn't a fit in the NYR system 3/4th the way through the season.

This is not a deadline addition, but an new season pickup. It's meant to change their defensive schemes from the middle of the ice out. J Staal is outstanding on faceoffs, defensively, and can generate offense when needed. NYR needs forwards that can play some defense. This seems like a good match up.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 8, 2020 at 1:17 a.m.
Thread: Goaltending
If you want to move Gardiner's K, you probably have a better suitor in NJD. They have a need for a LHD and have the cap space. You'll probably need to give some type of future asset (or retain salary) as well, but CAR has the 2nd round picks to play with and I'm certain NJD would LOVE to brag to NYR fans that they have their pick.

Also, Raanta will be a UFA in one year. This doesn't solve CAR's goalie issue, just kinda moves the pieces around (Mrazek and Reimer are UFA in one year too). They could use a younger, cheaper, just as good (or better) player in Georgiev, Jarry, or Samsonov who will all be cheaper than Foegele and a 3rd.

I also don't think that adding Chiasson helps negate the loss of Foegele. Foegele a BIG part of that 3rd line and is a + player with 30+ point potential and a lot of growth potential. Chiasson is an older, career - player, with low upside.

I think you're close, but this misses the mark by a bit. Let me know what you think though.