Quoting: phillyjabroni
@tadhockey
Erik Karlsson doesn't have a far more valuable price because Ottawa has zero leverage, isn't a lock to sign with whomever trades for him, and he is going to demand top dollar.
I direct you to what I talked about with relative value. Why would Tampa pay that steep price for Karlsson, when they can trade half of that for Mike Green and still make a strong playoff push? Adding Karlsson doesn't mean you can plan the parade the day after you get him.
You won't recoup anything of major value by flipping his negotiation rights. You at most might get a third round pick or two, but nothing more.
The market value is market value. There is no "should be" in value. Value is value is value is value.
Teams are going to be risk adverse. In other words, the risk accosted with not being able to guarantee a cup and signing Karlsson in the offseason will result in GMs either not paying what you demanded or they will settle for lesser players like Mike Green.
What happens if they make a trade for Mike Green and get knocked out in the second round?
There are no guarantees in hockey. That's for sure. It's part of what makes the sport great. But having Karlsson would create a defense of incredible quality, and gives Tampa the best possible chance to win a Stanley Cup, not just for one, but for two whole years. There's a ton of value in that added chance, because the value of going deeper into the playoffs isn't linear; it's exponential. You might pay twice as much for Karlsson, but how much value is there in making it to the Stanley Cup Final instead of getting knocked out in the second round? The answer is much, much more.
If I put a house on the market that an independent expert says should sell for $400,000, and it ends up selling for $350,000, then was the expert wrong? Market value is market value, but just because your expectation isn't met doesn't necessarily mean your expectation was the wrong stance to take.
Ottawa has plenty of leverage. They have the asset, with no requirement to trade him. They could hold on to him as long as they'd like, and potentially resign him.
Lastly, Erik Karlsson at $11million is still worth a ton, even if it isn't quite as much as him at $6.5million. If you look at a trade, as a contender, and strictly worry about contract demands (which aren't even going to result in a salary cap difference for more than a season), then you fail to realize that winning the Stanley Cup is why you play the game. That's why if you had to pick one team to be, you'd rather be the Los Angeles Kings over the past decade than the St. Louis Blues or the Washington Capitals.