One Trade Fixes It and No Its Not Tkachuk

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Created by: OldNYIfan

Team: 2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Jul. 19, 2022

Published: Jul. 19, 2022

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Lost in the mania of many Leafs fans to trade Jake Muzzin due to his cap hit is the fact that there were four teams* that were statistically tied for 13th through 16th in GAA among the playoff teams last season, and all Toronto has done so far this summer is lose Ilya Lyubushkin from its blue line. So personally, I'm not a fan of the Maple Leafs' trading Muzzin, and I think that Dubas' primary focus should be on improving the defense rather than weakening it.

I'm not sure that the Flames would be thrilled by this offer, but it's worth considering. If some addition to balance the deal in Calgary's eyes is necessary, assume that a prospect or pick or exchange thereof could be worked out.

I've heard that Sandin has been unwilling to sign an extension at roughly Liljegren's number, so I'm assuming that the figure shown is what would keep him in Toronto. To do so, Justin Holl would have to be moved, but that would be all that is necessary to be cap compliant with the team as it currently exists. I assume that he would bring a middling pick from someone, hence his presence on the LTIR list (for those who couldn't have figured this out for themselves).

No one currently on the main roster is waivers-exempt, but every forward on the Marlies is except Denis Malgin, so a 22-man roster is workable simply by shuttling young prospects back and forth with the AHL affiliate. Some of the potential promotions, or at least auditions, are shown on the imaginary Taxi Squad. (Note that there's enough cap space to bring up even the most cap-costly of the youngsters.)

Yes, I know that there's a weakness at RW without Nylander, but there's a weakness on defense the way that the roster is constructed now and trading Muzzin would only make it worse.

* All of whom lost in the first round

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Sandin, Rasmus		2	$2,000,000

Trades

TOR

Andersson, Rasmus

Additional Details:

make whatever adjustment you'd like

CGY

Nylander, William

Additional Details:

make whatever adjustment you'd like

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$82,500,000	$81,580,750	$212,500	$0	$919,250

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Bunting, Michael $950,000$950,000 LW UFA - 1	Matthews, Auston $11,640,250$11,640,250 C UFA - 2	Marner, Mitchell $10,903,000$10,903,000 RW UFA - 3
Engvall, Pierre $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 3	Aubé-Kubel, Nicolas $1,000,000$1,000,000 RW UFA - 1
Kerfoot, Alexander $3,500,000$3,500,000 LW, C, RW M-NTC UFA - 1	Kämpf, David $1,500,000$1,500,000 C UFA - 1	Järnkrok, Calle $2,100,000$2,100,000 RW, C, LW M-NTC UFA - 4
	Gaudette, Adam $750,000$750,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Simmonds, Wayne $900,000$900,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 1
Clifford, Kyle $762,500$762,500 LW UFA - 2		Anderson, Joey $750,000$750,000 RW RFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $7,500,000$7,500,000 LD NMC UFA - 8	Brodie, TJ $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD/RD NTC UFA - 2	Murray, Matt $4,687,500$4,687,500 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Muzzin, Jake $5,625,000$5,625,000 LD NTC UFA - 2		Samsonov, Ilya $1,800,000$1,800,000 G UFA - 1
Sandin, Rasmus $2,000,000$2,000,000 LD UFA - 2	Andersson, Rasmus $4,550,000$4,550,000 RD UFA - 4
Giordano, Mark $800,000$800,000 LD UFA - 2	Liljegren, Timothy $1,400,000$1,400,000 RD RFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		Holl, Justin $2,000,000$2,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 1

Taxi Squad
Robertson, Nicholas $796,667$796,667 ($0$0$0$0) LW, RW RFA - 2
Abruzzese, Nick $850,000$850,000 ($0$0$0$0) LW, C RFA - 1
Steeves, Alex $834,167$834,167 ($0$0$0$0) LW, RW RFA - 2
Holmberg, Pontus $827,500$827,500 ($0$0$0$0) C, LW RFA - 1
Niemelä, Topi $856,667$856,667 ($0$0$0$0) RD RFA - 3

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:10 p.m.

Ledge_And_Dairy

Joined: Jun. 2019

Posts: 38,306

Likes: 19,551

Flames have no interest in that

OldNYIfan and YesThisIsFlo liked this.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:13 p.m.

OldNYIfan

Thread Starter

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,292

Likes: 25,195

@palhal
@SaskLeaf
@GenXHockey

Guys, as always, your comments appreciated, as acid as they might be.

Saskleaf liked this.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:14 p.m.

OldNYIfan

Thread Starter

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,292

Likes: 25,195

Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy

Flames have no interest in that

I thought it might be appealing, now that you've lost Gaudreau and everyone assumes that you're losing Tkachuk. What are your reasons for declining?

GenXHockey liked this.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:15 p.m.

JaredOfLondon

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 19,691

Likes: 7,374

This makes no sense for the leafs at all. They literally need more forwards and now they need another

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:16 p.m.

Ledge_And_Dairy

Joined: Jun. 2019

Posts: 38,306

Likes: 19,551

Quoting: OldNYIfan

I thought it might be appealing, now that you've lost Gaudreau and everyone assumes that you're losing Tkachuk. What are your reasons for declining?

What does Nylander do for Calgary? Your argument is kinda just "make the trade just for the sake of making the trade"

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:17 p.m.

VladislavTretiak

Habs 7th round 1983

Joined: Dec. 2019

Posts: 1,623

Likes: 749

Finally someone understands how to build a hockey team.

But Kyle "Billy Beane" Dubas considers defence to be a cost center and a waste of resources, and will focus on getting more offence.

OldNYIfan liked this.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:17 p.m.

GMBL

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 8,566

Likes: 3,319

From Leafs perspective: How well did the Hall for Larsson trade workout for Edmonton?

From Flames perspective: Might just be an american players thing but if they are having top offensive players want out maybe getting Nylander might not be very smart especially with Sutter as the coach and Nylander's track record of taking nights off and slacking on the defensive end.

Flames would probably rather move a LD like Kylington.

OldNYIfan liked this.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:19 p.m.

OldNYIfan

Thread Starter

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

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Quoting: JaredOfLondon

This makes no sense for the leafs at all. They literally need more forwards and now they need another

They don't need another. They have Robertson or one of the other three Marlie forwards shown on the Taxi Squad.

Saying it makes no sense for the Leafs at all is saying that your defense as it stands now is acceptable. It wasn't last season and it won't be this season as is. You can argue that the cost of obtaining Andersson is too high, but to say that it makes no sense at all to add Andersson to that defense is simply closing your eyes to reality.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:22 p.m.

GMBL

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 8,566

Likes: 3,319

Quoting: OldNYIfan

The Leafs already need someone in the top 6, none of those Marlies have been able to make the jump yet. This trade puts another whole to fill one on the D-end, but then you have 2 holes in your top 6 F assuming Robertson or someone isn't good enough to fill that role.

Logan_Ollivier liked this.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:23 p.m.

#10

JaredOfLondon

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 19,691

Likes: 7,374

Quoting: OldNYIfan

Yeah, they do need another, especially if Robertson isnt 100% ready.
And the defence as it stands now has been fine, it hasnt cost them anything and they've been one of the better defensive teams in the league for years.
And upgrad would be nice, but not at the expense of an 80 point winget with no other replacement. Like j said, zero sense for the leafs

Logan_Ollivier liked this.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:24 p.m.

#11

littlejerryseinfeld

Joined: Nov. 2017

Posts: 27,759

Likes: 14,510

Did you "Nancy kerrigan" Justin holl to make the cap work?

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:24 p.m.

#12

OldNYIfan

Thread Starter

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,292

Likes: 25,195

Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy

What does Nylander do for Calgary?

"What does Nylander do for Calgary"?!?!? Seriously?

I expected something a little more insightful from you than that.

If you guys lose Tkachuk, I'd be willing to bet that you miss the playoffs in 2023, no matter who you get to replace him.

GMBL liked this.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:26 p.m.

#13

littlejerryseinfeld

Joined: Nov. 2017

Posts: 27,759

Likes: 14,510

Quoting: VladislavTretiak

Finally someone understands how to build a hockey team.

But Kyle "Billy Beane" Dubas considers defence to be a cost center and a waste of resources, and will focus on getting more offence.

Then explain the rielly contract, the brodie contract and the muzzin trade

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:27 p.m.

#14

VladislavTretiak

Habs 7th round 1983

Joined: Dec. 2019

Posts: 1,623

Likes: 749

Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld

Then explain the rielly contract, the brodie contract and the muzzin trade

You need to reinforce your defence. You were so easy to play against in the playoffs last spring.

OldNYIfan liked this.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:28 p.m.

#15

GMBL

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 8,566

Likes: 3,319

Quoting: JaredOfLondon

They still have a need for a top 4 RHD and Andersson would fill that need, so there is some sense in the trade from that perspective. Of course they would be putting in a hole in their top 6 which already has one which is why it wouldn't make sense but saying zero sense suggests that the Leafs don't have a need to fill. I guess if you mean by "zero sense" that the trade makes no sense in the sense that they are filling a whole by making a bigger one, then you would be right.

OldNYIfan liked this.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:29 p.m.

#16

OldNYIfan

Thread Starter

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,292

Likes: 25,195

Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld

Did you "Nancy Kerrigan" Justin holl to make the cap work?

No, as I said in the Team Explanation, the only thing necessary to bring Toronto into cap compliance is trading Holl and I'm confident "that he would bring a middling pick from someone" and didn't want to get into the distraction of picking a team and assigning a draft pick or prospect and then having a bunch of nerds discussing irrelevance.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:29 p.m.

#17

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,518

Likes: 22,676

Quoting: OldNYIfan

Yep, I still think either Kerfoot or Nylander have to be traded to make the cap work for the Leafs this season. Now I don't think Calgary would do that trade, and the Leafs are now in the situation on who would take the cap difference between one of those traded Leafs. If the Flames can afford it, maybe they would take Kerfoot (third rounder) or Nylander (second rounder) as a kinda of a replacement for Gaudreau this season, if they don't go the UFA route.
My suggestion trade Nylander. for a pick Keep Holl, pay Sandin a little more so he won't be offer sheeted. That gives the Leafs a little cap to obtain a winger. Too bad the Leafs wasted cap on Murray and and Jarnkrok, and they would have been in a better position. IMO Robertson and Steeves make camp at LW, not Clifford.

Either way Leaf fan, the forwards on paper are worse with Mikeheyev, and Case. Worse with Luybushin on defence, worse in net without Campbell.

OldNYIfan liked this.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:39 p.m.

#18

GMBL

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 8,566

Likes: 3,319

Quoting: OldNYIfan

The issue for the Flames getting Nylander while probably weakening their defense is Nylander's contract situation (but perhaps Kylington even though he isn't a RHD could replace him), however, people truly underrate Nylander from all the Nylander+a ton of assets for Tkachuk trades you see. When the difference between the two in production is just last season (they both had career years but Tkachuk's line had great, unreal 5v5 stats while Nylander's on line 2 wasn't which is why he spent time on line 3). Of course the physical aspect that Tkachuk brings which Nylander lacks is what attracts people the most but what has that done for the Flames in the playoffs? That being said a players success/failure one one team won't necessarily translate over to another.

Nylander should be a trade target for the Flames just not this year, and the Leafs should not trade Nylander until they can see if they can extend him/evaluation of the team.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:40 p.m.

#19

littlejerryseinfeld

Joined: Nov. 2017

Posts: 27,759

Likes: 14,510

Quoting: VladislavTretiak

You need to reinforce your defence. You were so easy to play against in the playoffs last spring.

I'm not a Leafs fan, but your point was wrong is what I am saying

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:41 p.m.

#20

OldNYIfan

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Once a Kings Fan Too

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Quoting: GMBL

The Leafs already need someone in the top 6, none of those Marlies have been able to make the jump yet. This trade puts another hole to fill one on the D-end, but then you have 2 holes in your top 6 F assuming Robertson or someone isn't good enough to fill that role.

But how do they expect to fill a hole at forward when they start $1.5 million in the red right now?

Trading Holl occurs in both scenarios. In the wishful thinking one, somehow a good top-6 forward is obtained while the defense goes unimproved, and I don't see how adding up front contributes much to a team that was great on offense to begin with. In my scenario, the same good top-6 forward is obtained using exactly the same assets as in the wishful thinking scenario and serves as a partial replacement for Nylander -- admittedly, a serious downgrade -- but the defense is upgraded significantly.

This year's defense, as is, is the same as last year's defense that has already proven inadequate. I don't think that standing pat (let alone trading Muzzin out of it, by the way) and hoping that an additional year's experience for Sandin and Liljegren is going to work.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:46 p.m.

#21

VladislavTretiak

Habs 7th round 1983

Joined: Dec. 2019

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Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld

I'm not a Leafs fan, but your point was wrong is what I am saying

I respect our differences of opinion

OldNYIfan liked this.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:46 p.m.

#22

GMBL

Joined: May 2022

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Quoting: OldNYIfan

They should trade Kerfoot, to become cap compliant, ideally they get a RHD that is physical while they are at it. Hakanpaa in Dallas seems like a good fit for the Leafs but not sure what it would cost since Dallas already needs a RHD. Another guy that the Leafs can potentially get is Severson but acquiring him at 50% as a rental is probably going to be costly but will cost much less than trying to acquire a player of Nylander's caliber. There is no trade that the Leafs would win if they trade Nylander most likely. Perhaps Shattenkirk is an option as well.

Moving out Muzzin would give them some more flexibility but yeah they would need Liljegren or Sandin to make up the difference. Technically though Giordano and Lyubushkin weren't main parts of the D last year in the sense that they probably didn't get a chance to settle vs if they played a full season.

OldNYIfan liked this.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:47 p.m.

#23

Logan_Ollivier

Owly

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 4,559

Likes: 932

Quoting: OldNYIfan

That's just coming to a conclusion without understanding why the goals against was what it was. The team had the 27th ranked goaltending and the 2nd best expected goal differential. Which clearly shows that defence wasn't the problem, it was entirely goaltending. Campbell wasn't very good in the 2nd half, Mrazek wasn't good at all, Kallegren was good enough to win but wasn't overly great and Woll was similar. Had they even had average goaltending they would have likely been close to the president's trophy. The defence wasn't an issue in the playoffs, Tampa beat them by the thinnest of margins boosted by some horrendous reffing in the final two games. Will Murray and Samsonov be better than Campbell and Mrazek? It really can't get much worse and the team is basically the same otherwise. Defence isn't the problem and hasn't been for a couple of seasons.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:48 p.m.

#24

Logan_Ollivier

Owly

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 4,559

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Quoting: OldNYIfan

I would wager they are unlikely to make the playoffs regardless of Tkachuk. Their best player left and it will have a major impact on the team.

YesThisIsFlo liked this.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 7:52 p.m.

#25

Logan_Ollivier

Owly

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Posts: 4,559

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Quoting: VladislavTretiak

You need to reinforce your defence. You were so easy to play against in the playoffs last spring.

You clearly didn't watch the playoffs because A) Toronto was the hardest series Tampa played until the final. And B) the team that won plays basically the same style of game the Leafs do. So this is just another nonsensical make up a reason that doesn't fit anything but the result. TO could lose a 7 game series where they out hit, out fight, and outscore the opposition but lose 4 one goal games and people like you will say defence is the reason they lost.

JT doesn't have his tieing goal called off in game 7, maybe they win. Had the refs not given TO a 5-3 penalty kill in the 3rd period of a 1 goal game in game 6 and maybe it doesn't go 7 games. It wasn't the defence and that is just a tired and lazy narrative.

kster34 and palhal liked this.

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