Edited Aug. 24, 2022 at 5:26 p.m.
Quoting: Billy316
Agreed up until you went "i dont understand Supply vs Demand or how the Market works , im going to declare it Magic " lol
Its pretty Simply come Playoffs push time around the TDL there are 16 teams in and another 4-6 who think they are typically but not always.
That's half to 60% of the league looking for Centers creating what people in Capitalist Nations call a "supply vs demand " situation
60% of the league that is bidding are doing so on maybe 5 Centers Tops who can draw at 55% plus.
Its why Hanzal and Plekanec got Way overpaid that one year because they were 2/3 Centers total available that won at that rate.
Hanzal came of IR to get ARZ paid then went back on it , Plekanec came off his career worst year before re-signing with MTL only to be released
Hanzal got a 1st , 2nd and 3rd round pick if i remember right and Plekanec got a 2nd and 2 AHL players we flipped for Kulak.
Supply vs. Demand is also founded on both actual and relative value during the available market - actual being true cost, and relative being cost relative to other options. And there actually aren't 16 teams during the TDL that would be looking at Monahan - not every single team is going to be thin at C such that they would give up appreciable assets for Monahan. Assets available at the TDL are limited - do you trade for F depth, or D depth? Do you trade for an upgrade in net? What about swinging big for the big-name guy who is on the market and could be a game changer? These are all considerations that variate a player's value at the TDL. My point was, unless you have a player in that third category (think Giroux or Stone), you are taking a risk, and that risk is in the calculation to acquire him. Why the hell would you give up a 2nd for Monahan, only to "flip" him at the deadline for a 5th or a B-tier prospect?
Additionally, your Hanzal and Plekanac examples, for instance, are from *five* and *four* years ago (which will be six and five at this year's TDL). Markets change over time, and in a flat cap environment, that market shrinks. How many of your 16 teams at the TDL are going to have enough space to take on Monahan? Even with using a broker to absorb cost, that is just cutting into the return that CBJ get, and diminishes their incentive to take on the hit.
I didn't s say flipping him is impossible, just that it is a presumption. It presumes (1) there is a market for Monahan; (2) there won't be other, better/cheaper/similar players who will be part of a short-term drive-market pushing his cost down; (3) that there is cap-space available for those competing teams to take on his hit (and 3a - that CBJ or the absorbing team are willing to take on the additional cost to broker the transaction); (4) that Monahan himself plays to a level warranting any of these considerations: and, (5) CBJ are willing to take on all of the risks for the hope that Monahan's performance warrants a TDL flip or a long-term extension. If anything, just saying "they can keep [Monahan] on longer term, or 50% flip him at TDL for a profit" is a greater leap into magic than actually looking into the incentives that CBJ have (or don't have) for making this trade.
That, my Canadiens fan, is how you look at these transactions from outside the window of your own team's gain.
P.S. Trade negging isn't a good look. When the other team is telling you "no, we don't want this trade," you're better off listening to the people who watch and follow these teams day-in and day-out, instead of
presuming they are all wrong.