Edited Sep. 6, 2022 at 9:20 p.m.
Quoting: mondo
Once you pass a population area of 1,500,000 it doesn't really matter much, because you have enough people in your catchment area to see a game twice a season. That's when arena size, arena location and team performance matter more. Those five teams have either been playing poorly, have a bad arena location or play in a small arena.
Oh yeah, it also completely highlights the “recency bias” in us.
I mean I did not remember Arizona being at 14k - obviously that wasn’t the standard the NHL “desired” at the time but it’s way more desirable now. Also forgetting Buffalo was holding 17k they’ve fallen arguably the hardest without having actually to dissect the list and do actual math.
And it lays out as you stated, the biggest issue with most struggling teams is the location of the arena paired with a poor team. I had no desire except for free tickets to drive to Kanata watching the 2018 Sens lol and I live in the area. And there’s nothing to do paired with it in the area. Now that the Sens are interesting to watch, I’ve re gained that desire to see them as there’s players worth going to see live. Yet I will not get seasons tickets due to the just stupid time sink that is the travel to the Canadian Tire Centre. You could live 15-20min away and potentially kill an hour getting home if the game ends at 10pm. That’s almost 11pm on a work night. If you lived south/ east of Kanata, anything near 30-40 min pre game drive and you could realistically on a bad night spend 2+ hrs in a car for total travel time.
An even better example imo, the whole NYI debacle which saw a PLAYOFF TEAM, have the 2nd lowest attendance in the entire league (2019-20). It was not a bad team, it was the purely stupid arena situation.
And for the last two examples - both Ottawa and NYI would OFTEN see large influxes in attendance; Toronto, NYR, NJD, MTL. That would heavily boost their low average numbers. This is just speculation but I’m confident to safely state this last paragraph regarding OTT - TOR/MTL games and I’m going to assume a similar (probably lesser) situation with the NY teams.