Nylander has to go

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Created by: fangm

Team: 2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Sep. 12, 2023

Published: Sep. 12, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

This isn't even about Nylander anymore. If the reports from Mirtle are true that they are more than $1M in AAV apart in negotiations at this stage of the game the deal isn't getting made.

I'll assume since his agent is Gross that they strategically picked the no trade list so it would include:
1. Seattle
2. Pittsburgh
3. Washington
4. Carolina
5. New York Islanders
6. New York Rangers
7. Colorado Avalanche
8. Vegas Golden Knights
9. Vancouver Canucks
10. Calgary Flames

Those are the teams that on July 1st had the right mix of cap space and playoff potential that they might consider trading for Nylander even as just a 1 year rental.

So let's assume those teams are out.

The teams that are left that make some sense are:
- Florida
- Tampa
- Detroit
- Ottawa
- Buffalo

But I don't think the Leafs would make this trade within the division. When Nylander scores to eliminate us in the first round Shanahan and Tre would have a public stoning.

- Columbus
- New Jersey
- Edmonton

Nobody else can reasonably make the cap space work or would benefit in any way from the deal if it was a rental, so here are the potential rental trades. I'm using Horvat as the comparable, last year he was traded for a young top 6 forward, 1st and B+ prospect, Nylander is slightly more valuable so I'd say the value is a replacement roster player, 1st and A prospect.

Trades

TOR

Dumais, Jordan
Jenner, Boone
2025 1st round pick (CBJ)

Additional Details:

Took a higher valued roster player and a lower valued prospect.

Not 100% certaint that Columbus does this but with Gaudreau at 30, Severson at 29, they may feel they need something to show this year before they end up with $16M commited to two guys in they mid 30s who have accomplished nothing with the Blue Jackets.

CBJ

TOR

Casey, Seamus [Reserve List]
Gritsyuk, Arseni [Reserve List]
Palat, Ondrej
2025 1st round pick (NJD)

Additional Details:

There will be debate over the value of Palat. NJ fans' bias aside its a bad contract. It's 3x more than Jankrok for less production. He's 32 and being paid $6M till 36.

That being said he is a playoff performer and even if he ends up being an overpaid 3rd liner we've seen others like Perry, Williams, etc able to make a significant impact into their late 30s even if their regular season play declines.

Two B+ prospects as the Devils don't really have any A prospects, guys like Hughes, Nemec and Holtz are arguably in the A+ category and essentially untouchable, especially for a rental.

NJD

TOR

Foegele, Warren
Kane, Evander
2024 1st round pick (EDM)
2025 1st round pick (EDM)

Additional Details:

Slightly different structure since Edmonton doesn't have anyone close to Nylander's cap number or any decent prospects.

EDM

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
28	$83,500,000	$104,960,617	$0	$0	-$21,460,617

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Bertuzzi, Tyler $5,500,000$5,500,000 LW, RW NMC UFA - 1	Matthews, Auston $11,640,250$11,640,250 C NMC UFA - 1	Marner, Mitchell $10,903,000$10,903,000 RW NMC UFA - 2
Järnkrok, Calle $2,100,000$2,100,000 RW, C, LW M-NTC UFA - 3	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 2	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW NMC UFA - 1
Knies, Matthew $925,000$925,000 LW, RW RFA - 2	Domi, Max $3,000,000$3,000,000 C, RW M-NTC UFA - 1	Reaves, Ryan $1,350,000$1,350,000 RW UFA - 3
Palat, Ondrej $6,000,000$6,000,000 LW, RW NMC UFA - 4	Kämpf, David $2,400,000$2,400,000 C M-NTC UFA - 4	Lafferty, Sam $1,150,000$1,150,000 RW, C, LW UFA - 1
Kane, Evander $5,125,000$5,125,000 LW, RW NMC UFA - 3	Holmberg, Pontus $800,000$800,000 C, LW RFA - 2	Dumais, Jordan $891,667$891,667 RW RFA - 4
Foegele, Warren $2,750,000$2,750,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Gambrell, Dylan $775,000$775,000 C UFA - 1
	Jenner, Boone $3,750,000$3,750,000 C, LW M-NTC UFA - 3

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $7,500,000$7,500,000 LD NMC UFA - 7	Klingberg, John $4,150,000$4,150,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 1	Samsonov, Ilya $3,550,000$3,550,000 G UFA - 1
Brodie, TJ $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 1	Liljegren, Timothy $1,400,000$1,400,000 RD RFA - 1	Jones, Martin $875,000$875,000 G UFA - 1
McCabe, Jake $2,000,000$2,000,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 2	Timmins, Conor $1,100,000$1,100,000 RD RFA - 2	Woll, Joseph $766,667$766,667 G RFA - 2
Giordano, Mark $800,000$800,000 LD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
	Robertson, Nicholas $796,667$796,667 LW, RW RFA - 1	Muzzin, Jake $5,625,000$5,625,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 1
		Murray, Matt $4,687,500$4,687,500 G M-NTC UFA - 1

Sep. 12, 2023 at 9:16 p.m.

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,319

Likes: 7,845

You aren't close on the Edmonton deal. There's no way they give up that much for a rental they can't afford to re-sign.

Kane is a 40 goal scorer being paid just $5M, Foegele is the league's best 3rd liner, plus they've never, ever traded a 1st for a rental let alone two.

There's zero percent chance this happens.

palhal and nashthesecond liked this.

Sep. 12, 2023 at 9:18 p.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 60,734

Likes: 23,354

What this crazy perception that the Leafs have to trade Nylander, just because he may not resign? Just keep him for a Cup run this year and then spend Nylander's cap on another player(s) next season.

CD282 and OldNYIfan liked this.

Sep. 12, 2023 at 9:19 p.m.

BillytheKid3

Joined: Aug. 2023

Posts: 563

Likes: 413

This will be the most interesting trade of the season, he very likely moves out of the division and it happens sooner then people think.

fangm liked this.

Sep. 12, 2023 at 9:20 p.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 60,734

Likes: 23,354

Quoting: CD282

More nuttiness from Leaf fans.. Nylander won't resign, so trade for good assets to another team.......who can't sign him either.

CD282, OldNYIfan, Ausbear17 and 1 other person liked this.

Sep. 12, 2023 at 9:20 p.m.

pretzelcoatl

n.1 Topias Vilen fan

Joined: Jul. 2021

Posts: 6,060

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NJ doesn't consider that for a second. There is zero need to trade futures for a rental, especially guys like Gritsyuk and Casey who are super skilled.

Palat blocks the deal.

palhal liked this.

Sep. 12, 2023 at 9:32 p.m.

fangm

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2021

Posts: 2,196

Likes: 294

Quoting: palhal

What this crazy perception that the Leafs have to trade Nylander, just because he may not resign? Just keep him for a Cup run this year and then spend Nylander's cap on another player(s) next season.

If you do this with Nylander then Marner will ask for $13M hold firm and walk in 2 summers. It's about setting expectationss, something every other organization has done but the Leafs haven't.

It's an honour to play in the NHL, its especially an honour to play for a team like the Leafs, if all you care about is money go to Arizona, Winnepeg or some other place where they need to beg players to stay. The Leafs need to stop talking about culture and start setting it from the the top down.

Even Shanahan on $7M/year or Babcock for $6.25M/year was a complete joke.

Sep. 12, 2023 at 9:40 p.m.

squashmaple

not a he )

Joined: Apr. 2022

Posts: 3,476

Likes: 4,873

Columbus doesn’t even pick up the phone for that.

dk325 and BoomerTheHero liked this.

Sep. 12, 2023 at 9:42 p.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 60,734

Likes: 23,354

Quoting: fangm

I never said anything about the Leafs resigning Nylander....especially if it's a bloated contract. It shouldn't be hard to understand that the Leafs aren't trading Bertuzzi, Domi, Lafferty, Giordano, Brodie, Klingberg, Samsonov and Nylander just because they might not resign.
Just like the other 31 NHL team, few of the upcoming UFAs, will be traded. Probably teams that are not in the playoff hunt will be sellers, and teams "going for it " will actually acquire upcoming UFAs knowing they have little chance of resigning them do to cap reasons.
Why do so many think Nylander is unique?
And by logic you trade Nylander because he won't resign, why would other teams give up good assets for him, knowing he won't be resigning for their team either.

Sep. 12, 2023 at 9:45 p.m.

DustinBrown1989

Banned

Joined: Sep. 2023

Posts: 1,865

Likes: 363

Definitely no to that New Jersey deal

Sep. 12, 2023 at 9:47 p.m.

#10

mv21227

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 11,055

Likes: 9,939

Quoting: CD282

While I agree Edmonton doesn’t do the deal, Foegele is nowhere near the leagues best 3rd liner

Sep. 12, 2023 at 10:04 p.m.

#11

dk325

Dolzhenkov Is Coming

Joined: Mar. 2022

Posts: 3,746

Likes: 5,478

Fresh Boone Jenner to Toronto proposals are on the grill. Come and get em.

squashmaple and BoomerTheHero liked this.

Sep. 12, 2023 at 10:11 p.m.

#12

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 13,496

Likes: 3,664

While the palat contract is bad he's still a much better player than Jarnkrok. Still 14 goals and 28 points in 35 playoff games the last 2 years. As well as being much better defensively and analytically

Palat hasn't been below 55% xgoals% since 2015, and his teams have been significantly better with him on the ice than off every year
Jarnkrok meanwhile has never been above 51.6%, and his teams have almost always been much better with him off the ice

Sep. 12, 2023 at 10:22 p.m.

#13

draft_em_sign_em_trade_em

Joined: Nov. 2018

Posts: 9,801

Likes: 2,348

I think the $1 million apart has more to do with length of contract, Nylander may copycat Matthews and take a 3 to 4 year deal, to get another big payday before he is old and less valued.

Considering twinkle berry gave J.T. $11 million, honestly Nylander performance aligns with J.T. at the same career path, so a $10 million Nylander isn't that earth shattering.

Sep. 12, 2023 at 10:32 p.m.

#14

GolfBall

Impatient

Joined: Jul. 2019

Posts: 309

Likes: 48

Quoting: palhal

What this crazy perception that the Leafs have to trade Nylander, just because he may not resign? Just keep him for a Cup run this year and then spend Nylander's cap on another player(s) next season.

I like Nylander playing out the season. He basically climbed over teammates to score his 40th, imagine how much he'll try to impress to get $10M. Nothing says he doesn't resign next year, except perhaps those who want to trade him to gain cap space to do their own ideas.

palhal liked this.

Sep. 12, 2023 at 11:03 p.m.

#15

MaxBorjshlapsky

Bulklav Jr.Star 03

Joined: Nov. 2022

Posts: 1,763

Likes: 263

It's clear you put thought and effort into this post it's hard to see how people totally chit all over it with one sentence or one word post.

Completely see what the point you want to make is and where you're coming from..

I had the same idea a couple weeks back of the agents strategy to hit the UFA market it's the other reason I suspect that is exactly where Nylander is headed because if that's the desire and attempt from willy and the agent odds are it's what is going to happen

The only small chance is he has a team in mind he's willing to extend with and that's the other small option that they strategize the NTC list toward

The only thing I think you missed is putting the flames on the NTC list because I think that's where all the options for trades are as well

But the whole point that will be lost on most people is nylanders NTC list is not just a bunch of bad teams it's a strategic list that most people wouldn't understand how it would be formed.

Cheers great post

Sep. 12, 2023 at 11:44 p.m.

#16

PaIhal

Banned

Joined: Sep. 2023

Posts: 234

Likes: 101

Quoting: MaxBorjshlapsky

Quoting: GolfBall

Quoting: palhal

Another thing the OP seems to understand that others don't is that Nylander is a precedence for Marner.

Nylander has the attitude that he can wait all year and an extension isn't important. If you use him as an own rental then Marner has ZERO reason to sign an extension next summer. He knows the Leafs won't pressure him to accept a trade, sit him, shop him, etc. They will just treat him as an own rental so he can relax and ride the wave to UFA, hear everyone out and make a decision.

The logic behind an own rental isn't flawed but specifically when it comes to the Leafs it feeds into a culture that will continue to give players leverage. At some point they need to say that enough is enough and if you aren't going to sign reasonable deals that help this team win them we will trade you for assets that will.

fangm liked this.

Sep. 12, 2023 at 11:51 p.m.

#17

MaxBorjshlapsky

Bulklav Jr.Star 03

Joined: Nov. 2022

Posts: 1,763

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Quoting: NucksExec

I think Matthews signing is a more reasonable example for Marner not Nylander but fair point you are making just don't see Marner following nylanders approach....I'm not going to be shocked either if Nylander signs an extension mid season so we are mostly just speculating about things that still have to unfold....truly not worried about mariners next deal, Matthews stays I don't see how Marner doesn't nylanders the third wheel that we want to stay but he is the sacrifice if needed.

palhal liked this.

Sep. 13, 2023 at 1:09 a.m.

#18

T0R

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 3,678

Likes: 949

Quoting: CD282

Fogele is not even close to the Leagues best 3rd Liner he isn’t even his divisions best 3rd Liner🤣

Sep. 13, 2023 at 6:13 a.m.

#19

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,319

Likes: 7,845

Edited Sep. 13, 2023 at 6:37 a.m.

Quoting: mv21227

While I agree Edmonton doesn’t do the deal, Foegele is nowhere near the leagues best 3rd liner

His scoring rates at 5v5 were as good as Tavares'. He provides stellar 2-way play, and stepped up that side of his game in the playoffs. He's big, fast and physical, and he doesn't need to play with McDavid or Draisaitl to put up 1st line scoring rates. I can't think of a guy who I'd rather have on my third line.

Sep. 13, 2023 at 6:13 a.m.

#20

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,319

Likes: 7,845

Edited Sep. 13, 2023 at 6:36 a.m.

Quoting: T0R

Fogele is not even close to the Leagues best 3rd Liner he isn’t even his divisions best 3rd Liner🤣

Who would that be?

If he's not the best he's pretty damn close.

Sep. 13, 2023 at 7:32 a.m.

#21

JaredOfLondon

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 20,091

Likes: 7,490

good grief, they have like a year, settle down

Sep. 13, 2023 at 8:33 a.m.

#22

BlueJacketsandBuckeyes

Joined: Jan. 2021

Posts: 256

Likes: 187

I didn’t realize a number below 30 and literal 30 are mid 30’s. Canadian school must be so much more advanced than us.

Sep. 13, 2023 at 10:26 a.m.

#23

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 60,734

Likes: 23,354

Why even worry about Marner (and all the other UFAs.)? If let's say the Leafs offer or set aside 11.5m for Marner and he won't sign the contract. Why worry? Just spend that 11.5m on other players
Happens all the time in with player.....why is Marner (or Nylander) so unique.
And really what is so special collectively about the three "young" core Matthws/Nylander and Marner. Good/very/good/maybe even great players. And the Leafs are a good/very good team. But one playoff round win shouldn't grant a player on the Leafs immunity from not being resigned.

Sep. 13, 2023 at 10:36 a.m.

#24

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,319

Likes: 7,845

Quoting: palhal

So you're saying they should treat Nylander as an internal rental and then use his cap on another player(s) if they can't get a deal done before the summer? I don't disagree with that approach, but lots of fans will see that as "losing him for nothing".

palhal liked this.

Sep. 13, 2023 at 11:03 a.m.

#25

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 60,734

Likes: 23,354

Quoting: CD282

Yep, I see him as an internal rental,....but shouldn't all upcoming UFAs be treated the same way? What's so unique about Nylander?
Yeah...I see so many fans as thinking about "losing for nothing" as selfish/.foolish ":Their" teams signed UFAs for nothing but somehow demand payment for their upcoming UFA(s).
And in just and about all cases, in this case the Islanders are big losers in the transaction.
Wouldn't the Isles be much better off starting in 24/25...keeping the pick, trading Pullock for good assets, keeping or trading the cheaper Wallstrom and then spending that new found cap on a Nylander or another UFA? Yes, the Isles would be marginally better this season, but not in the long run.
Still I ask the question......Have you ever known a Cup Contender allowing a star player to negotiate with his next contract with another team one full year out from his contract expiring? Never happens.
Out of playoff teams should at some time trade their upcoming UFAs....to start the reboot. But playoff teams often acquire upcoming UFAs, with no hope of resigning them for a Cup run.

CD282 liked this.

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