1. NHL trades are not an everyday occurrence



2. NHL trades usually happen around a certain event (i.e. trade deadline, draft, free agency)



3. Boring depth moves are more common than big thrilling blockbusters



4. Making a trade requires incentives for the other team, not just your own.



5. There are 30 other NHL teams to trade with besides your own.



6. A team that doesn't want a trade has more power over a team that does want a trade.



7. You can't trade a player with a Full NMC or a Full NTC unless they say so.



8. You can't trade a draft pick if it violates the terms and conditions of another trade made previously.



9. Players on one team are valued differently by other teams, often less so (i.e. endowment effect)



10. Building a winning team and keeping it requires more than just making trades

You forgot...

#11 (perhaps should be #1): All other teams also have to adhere to the salary cap, not just your team.

#12. Quantity almost never makes up for quality: acquiring a premium asset usually requires a premium asset returning to the other team. Most teams are not interested in acquiring the Toronto Marlies and/or Laval Rocket.

NHL trades almost always follow historical trade comps, especially depth guys. And no your teams depth guy isn't special

Trading your pending UFA "with extension" to jack up his value isn't a real thing.

Players aren't going to sign extensions without knowing where they're going to
Teams aren't going to let their pending UFAs negotiate contracts with opposing teams

#15: Dumping bad contracts is harder then you think it is

This one is very annoying! Make it so trades can't be added to an ACGM until it successfully clears Trade Machine would take care of that.

The old rule of thumb used to be Pick, Player. Prospect. If you can't make the trade with one of each then you have to use a better pick, player or prospect.

The historical comps always win

@palhal

I don't know if you saw this but I know you agree with it.

The amount of players who fans think will be traded with extensions is massive. The amount of guys in the last half decade to actually get moved with new deals is like 3 (Seth Jones, Lindholm, JGP) in the last half decade

I agree. I've seen @palhal post that quite a bit and knew he would appreciate your post.

Thanks for this. I would even go along with trading a player from a non playoff team......but these trades from a Cup contender allowing a player to negotiate a contract with another team.....now that is nonsense.

1. Trades are more likely to occur when there are changes that prompt them (player is due a raise, another player has supplemented them in lineup)

2. Trade comps will predict the price for most trades. Our gut won't.

3. Wingers grow on trees (there are always cheap wingers). Young centers and top-4 dmen rarely move.

4. There are differences between deadline trades (short-term focus) and off-season trades (longer-term)

5. See #2...always trust the comps over your own gut.

6. There is a risk premium on goalies...since their performance is harder to replicate (meaning the return is lower)

7. The cost for salary retention is a fairly stable market (use comps to determine cost of cap space)

8. There are some teams that *never* take salary dumps. Find out who they are.

9. There is a developmental super-cycle that every team goes through (Competing->Aging->Deconstructing->Rebuilding->Competing). Items like cap space and draft have different value at different stages.

10. Read #2 again on comps.

11. Sign-and-trades are rare (but could become more common). Setoguchi was first as RFA in 2011. Severson was first as UFA in 2023.

12. There valued added by intangibles is de minimis. For instance, he is 'good for your teams kids' or 'good locker room guy' don't change trade prices.

13. Trades do get rejected by league. We don't hear about them.

14. Top-25 prospects rarely get moved. Maybe once every couple of years. Top-50 prospects maybe once a year. Prospects in 51-100 range move frequently. Ask accordingly.

15. See #2 on comps.

16. There are contract limits. Teams usually want to be under those limits. Trading 5 guys for 1 doesn't help them.

17. Trading after the deadline is allowed. The limitations are for roster eligibility for post-season.

18. The value of a draft pick traded at the draft is largely known. Valuing a pick months away from draft is much more complicated.

19. Unsigned prospects are worth less than signed versions.

20. Trust the comps.

Another thing: Teams acquiring players will add what they need... Especially if they are a rental...

I've seen so many ACGM trades that have no consideration to the position the other team is in... For example, a team like Tampa or Toronto have limited assets with a solid forward core... So why on earth would they go out and spend 2/3 of their premium assets for another forward who would en up on the 4rth line... Or why would Boston spend asset(s) on a defensemen or goalie?

And also: There are only 32 1st round picks each year and only so many contending teams, why would teams go after your rebuilding teams 4rth liner for a 1st?