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2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #2: Early Overreactions

Dec. 4, 2023 at 1:43 p.m.
#426
Amirov Forever
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Quoting: yikes
Elliotte has said Carolina - among a handful of other teams took a run at Ferraro to acquire him, and are still looking at a deal. He’s said this has caused more teams to check in.

Other night he said Ferraro would be quite expensive, and personally I say we can use Hronek as a comparison in trade value (1st + 2nd) - however you could argue Ferraro could see a first and a high prospect due to the:

- 3m AAV
- Signed through this year, next year, and the year after
- being a defence/ block first player who’s regularly logged over 20min before on a bad team

Either way they are different players. Hronek was more of a producer, with no term. Ferraro has term and is cheap but isn’t going to slap up 40-50 points. I’d expect Grier is looking at an equal value to Hronek.

My guess is Grier is looking at Morrow and a first from Carolina which is why the deal obviously hasn’t been done yet. With more teams calling, it will be interesting.

My opinion is that Toronto could do something crazy.

Ferraro and Chris Tanev (2.25 retained by CGY, 1.125 retained by SJS). The 3 way deal they wanted to get done with Tanev and Zadorov which didn’t cross the line, could be done with the SJS and CGY. San Jose would be able to give Thrun or Shakir NHL playing time as a result.

Toronto Maple Leafs

The new future in Toronto having a D core of:

Rielly - Brodie (quality top pair)
Ferraro - Tanev (shutdown pair)
McCabe - Lili (rewarding 3rd pair)
Gio
Laegy

And I would bet Toronto would throw up both their firsts and maybe Topi to get the deal across the finish line. They resign Brodie for hopefully cheap and try to see if Tanev takes a team friendly deal. Could be the D line Toronto needs to win a cup.


I'd absolutely love Ferraro in Toronto, and he would definition return some nice value based on the contract alone, but I can't really see the return being much more than a 1st and maybe another pick. He and Tanev would be a really nice pair. As soon as it was reported that San Jose was looking at moving a defenseman, I immediately thought of how great Ferraro would be.

If that's the cost so be it, but I can't see the Leafs also going out and adding Tanev if that's the case. Niemela is a no go as far as trade pieces go
Dec. 4, 2023 at 1:45 p.m.
#427
Ban Price trades
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Quoting: yikes
I have no idea, it’s kind of odd because Elliotte could be spouting nonsense but he’s not a Marc Spector type of guy lol. Jokes aside Elliotte isn’t a guy who hard core lies. He’s trustworthy and it’s pretty interesting because if you’re San Jose, your logjam on LD - solved by acquiring a ransom for Ferraro is almost a best case and allows you do develop Thrun and play Shakir more in the AHL top pair.

He said it would be expensive and other teams are starting to join the “bids”. I wouldn’t see Grier trading Mario for less than a 1st so it’s bizarre the conversation is actually being had that the “expensive cost” isn’t being scoffed and conversations are being had.

I think San Jose as a whole has been bad so analytics don’t help their cases for trades and it’s going to come down to subjective opinion and pro scouts.


That last line is why I used rel stats: they compare competition, icetime, and usage and generate numbers relative to their teammates. For reference, Knyzhov ranks 11th in the league among Quinn Hughes and Bouchard for CF%Rel despite ranking 209th in the league with his raw CF%. He wins the shots battle compared to his teammates as well as Hughes and Bouchard win the shots battle compared to their teammates.
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Dec. 4, 2023 at 1:47 p.m.
#428
EklundCelebriniSmith
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Edited Dec. 4, 2023 at 1:55 p.m.
Quoting: NorthernLeafsFan05
I'd absolutely love Ferraro in Toronto, and he would definition return some nice value based on the contract alone, but I can't really see the return being much more than a 1st and maybe another pick. He and Tanev would be a really nice pair. As soon as it was reported that San Jose was looking at moving a defenseman, I immediately thought of how great Ferraro would be.

If that's the cost so be it, but I can't see the Leafs also going out and adding Tanev if that's the case. Niemela is a no go as far as trade pieces go


I only use Topi’s name as Toronto does not have a 2nd.
And imo guys like SDA, Steeves, Abruzzese don’t carry any value. The leafs have a great AHL but none of them are really prospects for a team like the Sharks.

Brad Tree isn’t the guy who drafted Topi and so if they offer a conditional 2nd/ 2026 first to a 2027 2nd if the conditions aren’t met; it allows Brad to make an impact. It hurts TOR not having any 2nds. I wouldn’t say San Jose should receive Topi and a first (unless it’s heavily protected and revolves around playoff success) - but I don’t think Topi is as safe as he would be if Dubas was around yknow?

Easy example would be Knyzhov throw to the wayside for Okho, Griers guy vs Wilson’s guy. And we’ve seen despite Knyzhov not playing bad - Okho getting direct attention. Not a direct comparison to Topi (who’s a completely different player). But we see it every year with GMs and their guys vs old regimes guys.
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Dec. 4, 2023 at 1:52 p.m.
#429
EklundCelebriniSmith
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Edited Dec. 4, 2023 at 1:58 p.m.
Quoting: BeterChiarelli
That last line is why I used rel stats: they compare competition, icetime, and usage and generate numbers relative to their teammates. For reference, Knyzhov ranks 11th in the league among Quinn Hughes and Bouchard for CF%Rel despite ranking 209th in the league with his raw CF%. He wins the shots battle compared to his teammates as well as Hughes and Bouchard win the shots battle compared to their teammates.


Ah got ya.

Yeah but as we see with Knyzhov - for example - he’s always been enjoyable to watch (not frustrating like Vlasic or Hoffman for example): carries a 1.2m AAV x 1 more year, and is 6’3 222lbs.

I think any of the contenders with cap troubles should have claimed him. Would be top 4 in the AHL and has 2nd pair ceiling in the NHL if he can stay healthy and get some consistency in his icetime. He wasn’t claimed despite as you outline some good relative stats - and I think he should have been claimed by one of the contenders as a depth/ injury help or playoff run protection. It was obvious Knyzhov was Griers guy, and Okho has seen direct investment.

Okho took his job, hasn’t played bad but needs to improve. And we’ve seen Okho, Griers guy - take priority.

So it’s hard to really tell what teams are thinking. We see hundreds of bizarre moves every year - example being Addison.

Not quite the same situation - but MIN said we don’t want to invest more time into Calen, we’ll acquire kinda of 7th man in Bogo and use his size on the 3rd pair and trade Calen for ad best a 4th liner (Raska who I really like) and a mid/ late pick. Many people including MIN reporters like Russo scratching their heads.

Ferraro has a lot of raw things to like, and he’s 25 with vast experience. He’s like Burns in the sense that he’s polarizing - different players but some scouts/ experts will LOVE Ferraro and some won’t at all. Ferraro has the raw tools though, to help a team build a shutdown pair, and he’s a blocking machine past and present, which isn’t something you can always teach- which again probably gives some coaches/ scouts a hard on.
Dec. 4, 2023 at 1:56 p.m.
#430
Ban Price trades
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Quoting: yikes
Ah got ya.

Yeah but as we see with Knyzhov - for example - he’s always been enjoyable to watch (not frustrating like Vlasic or Hoffman for example): carries a 1.2m AAV x 1 more year, and is 6’3 222lbs.

I think any of the contenders with cap troubles should have claimed him. Would be top 4 in the AHL and has 2nd pair ceiling in the NHL if he can stay healthy and get some consistency in his icetime. He wasn’t claimed despite as you outline some good relative stats - and I think he should have been claimed by one of the contenders as a depth/ injury help or playoff run protection. It was obvious Knyzhov was Griers guy, and Okho has seen direct investment.

Okho took his job, hasn’t played bad but needs to improve. And we’ve seen Okho, Griers guy - take priority.

So it’s hard to really tell what teams are thinking. We see hundreds of bizarre moves every year - example being Addison.

Not quite the same situation - but MIN said we don’t want to invest more time into Calen, we’ll acquire kinda of 7th man in Bogo and use his size on the 3rd pair and trade Calen for ad best a 4th liner (Raska who I really like) and a mid/ late pick. Many people including MIN reporters like Russo scratching their heads.


Teams currently in LTIR wouldn't have been able to pick him up without likely having to waive him again. Depending on player recovery timelines, it's more of a pain in the ass to bring a guy on for a few games than it is to just play your own #7 guy.

I think teams like Nashville, Detroit, and PHilly should have claimed him but the way teams internally evaluate their own players and the players from other teams probably suggested he'd be a marginal upgrade at best. At an AAV almost double league-minimum, marginal upgrades just won't cut it.
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Dec. 4, 2023 at 2:02 p.m.
#431
EklundCelebriniSmith
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Teams currently in LTIR wouldn't have been able to pick him up without likely having to waive him again. Depending on player recovery timelines, it's more of a pain in the ass to bring a guy on for a few games than it is to just play your own #7 guy.

I think teams like Nashville, Detroit, and PHilly should have claimed him but the way teams internally evaluate their own players and the players from other teams probably suggested he'd be a marginal upgrade at best. At an AAV almost double league-minimum, marginal upgrades just won't cut it.


Oh agreed 100%, my lack of clarity was that the 2nd of my comment was more directed back to Ferraro (the choices teams make/ Calen example).

I think (edited my last comment and added more about Mario);
Is that Ferraro does a lot that some teams’ scouts and coaches love, and I think he’s shown enough glimpses of being a real quality 3rd guy (he’s not going to be a 1st or 2nd+ PP leader) - and adds in a lot of the things he does that others don’t do (blocks, super vocal, has logged tons of minutes etc, focus on D, compete) all add up to the potential for a desperate team to be well desperate for a bet on Ferraro.
Dec. 4, 2023 at 2:41 p.m.
#432
Hakuna Matata
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Edited Dec. 4, 2023 at 3:05 p.m.
Quoting: yikes
Elliotte has said Carolina - among a handful of other teams took a run at Ferraro to acquire him, and are still looking at a deal. He’s said this has caused more teams to check in.

Other night he said Ferraro would be quite expensive, and personally I say we can use Hronek as a comparison in trade value (1st + 2nd) - however you could argue Ferraro could see a first and a high prospect due to the:

- 3m AAV
- Signed through this year, next year, and the year after
- being a defence/ block first player who’s regularly logged over 20min before on a bad team

Either way they are different players. Hronek was more of a producer, with no term. Ferraro has term and is cheap but isn’t going to slap up 40-50 points. I’d expect Grier is looking at an equal value to Hronek.

My guess is Grier is looking at Morrow and a first from Carolina which is why the deal obviously hasn’t been done yet. With more teams calling, it will be interesting.

My opinion is that Toronto could do something crazy.

Ferraro and Chris Tanev (2.25 retained by CGY, 1.125 retained by SJS). The 3 way deal they wanted to get done with Tanev and Zadorov which didn’t cross the line, could be done with the SJS and CGY. San Jose would be able to give Thrun or Shakir NHL playing time as a result.

Toronto Maple Leafs

The new future in Toronto having a D core of:

Rielly - Brodie (quality top pair)
Ferraro - Tanev (shutdown pair)
McCabe - Lili (rewarding 3rd pair)
Gio
Laegy

And I would bet Toronto would throw up both their firsts and maybe Topi to get the deal across the finish line. They resign Brodie for hopefully cheap and try to see if Tanev takes a team friendly deal. Could be the D line Toronto needs to win a cup.


Ferraro doesnt fit what they need though as if they are going for a LD they need someone who plays a strong 2-way game. For more of a defensive guy its RD who they need to either push Brodie to 2nd pair or play 2nd pair shutdown

Hanafin for instance makes sense rn for defensive RD there are options (Tanev, Fabbro, Lybushkin, etc)

As other than defense the Leafs issue on the blue line is besides Rielly nobody else generates offense. They are I believe almost dead last in the league there

And as we saw in the playoffs you cant just get goals by forwards


Rielly-Tanev or another defensive RD
Hanafin-Brodie
McCabe-Liligren

Thats scary
Dec. 4, 2023 at 3:19 p.m.
#433
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Alex Lyon getting the start for Red Wings vs Buffalo tomorrow; this is significant in the sense that it now proves the trend (3 times in a row now) that Husso/Lyon are splitting starts as a full tandem and not a 2:1 ratio as had been done before the Sweden Global series with Husso/Reimer. This arrangement works really well for Detroit as they have 3 games this week and 4 for each of the following weeks including two B2Bs.
Dec. 4, 2023 at 5:23 p.m.
#434
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Sharks trying to move Vlasic, apparently. Seems silly to me. Gonna waste your last retention slot on a guy who's contract will be up by the time you're competitive window opens to recoup minimal assets, if any?
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Dec. 4, 2023 at 6:35 p.m.
#435
Go leafs go
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Edited Dec. 4, 2023 at 7:43 p.m.
I just realized that barring something unforeseen, Shane Wright will be at the WJC for the 3rd straight time. Is that a first for team Canada? Or just the first in a long time?

Edit: never mind I guess I’m out of the loop
Dec. 4, 2023 at 6:36 p.m.
#436
Hakuna Matata
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
Sharks trying to move Vlasic, apparently. Seems silly to me. Gonna waste your last retention slot on a guy who's contract will be up by the time you're competitive window opens to recoup minimal assets, if any?


They should honestly just buy him out this summer

Unless there is a nice Sweetner I cant see anyone going yea sure
Dec. 4, 2023 at 7:09 p.m.
#437
GM CRIME DAWG
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Edited Dec. 4, 2023 at 11:04 p.m.
Quoting: Saskleaf
I just realized that barring something unforeseen, Shane Wright will be at the WJC for the 3rd straight time. Is that a first for team Canada? Or just the first in a long time?


Think he already came about and said No...
Been there, done that, got the T-shirt kinda play
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Dec. 4, 2023 at 7:42 p.m.
#438
Go leafs go
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Quoting: McGruff
Think he already came out and said No...
Been there, done that, got the T-shirt kinda play


Ahh never mind then. I guess that does make sense
Dec. 4, 2023 at 8:20 p.m.
#439
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I know McDrai exists and I have a slight bias,
But how close are Kuch-Point to being the best duo in the NHL?
Dec. 4, 2023 at 8:23 p.m.
#440
Hakuna Matata
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I get there's other stuff into deciding cap but come on NHL fork over extra 300k to make it 88m foe 2024-2025 lul

87.7m just feels weird
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Dec. 4, 2023 at 9:07 p.m.
#441
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Quoting: aadoyle
I get there's other stuff into deciding cap but come on NHL fork over extra 300k to make it 88m foe 2024-2025 lul

87.7m just feels weird


Once the escrow balanced is settled, the cap reverts back to old formula using 50/50 owner/player revenue.

I personally would like to see $86,868,686.86
Dec. 4, 2023 at 9:28 p.m.
#442
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Quoting: Rangsey
I know McDrai exists and I have a slight bias,
But how close are Kuch-Point to being the best duo in the NHL?


around 3 or 4 maybe...

1. McDavid/Draisaitl
2. MacKinnon/Rantanen
3. Tkachuk/Barkov
4. Kucherov/Point
5. Hughes/Bratt
6. Matthews/Marner
7. Pettersson/Miller

(assuming forwards only)
Dec. 4, 2023 at 9:34 p.m.
#443
Amirov Forever
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Quoting: Rangsey
I know McDrai exists and I have a slight bias,
But how close are Kuch-Point to being the best duo in the NHL?


Carcone and Kerfoot are the best duo in the league
Dec. 4, 2023 at 9:37 p.m.
#444
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Quoting: NorthernLeafsFan05
Carcone and Kerfoot are the best duo in the league


Bettman and Screwing players over?
Dec. 4, 2023 at 9:42 p.m.
#445
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
around 3 or 4 maybe...

1. McDavid/Draisaitl
2. MacKinnon/Rantanen
3. Tkachuk/Barkov
4. Kucherov/Point
5. Hughes/Bratt
6. Matthews/Marner
7. Pettersson/Miller

(assuming forwards only)


Do you mean like linemate duos or just 2 guys on a team?
Dec. 4, 2023 at 9:52 p.m.
#446
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Quoting: NorthernLeafsFan05
Carcone and Kerfoot are the best duo in the league


Carcone with his 12th and Kerfoot with two apples in the first period. wink
Dec. 4, 2023 at 10:04 p.m.
#447
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JOSH ANDERSON, finally
Dec. 4, 2023 at 10:06 p.m.
#448
GM CRIME DAWG
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
around 3 or 4 maybe...

1. McDavid/Draisaitl
2. MacKinnon/Rantanen
3. Tkachuk/Barkov
4. Kucherov/Point
5. Hughes/Bratt
6. Matthews/Marner
7. Pettersson/Miller

(assuming forwards only)


Zacha/Pasta - yum yum
Dec. 4, 2023 at 10:11 p.m.
#449
Go Habs Go
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
JOSH ANDERSON, finally


Turns out he's just been shooting from way way way too close so far this season. XD
Dec. 4, 2023 at 11:50 p.m.
#450
Amirov Forever
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https://x.com/GinoHard_/status/1731893268361671016?s=20

All time interview moment
 
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